NFL Week 15 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Week 15 in the NFL means win totals, clinching scenarios, cold weather and Saturday football (at least now it does).

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 15 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, December. 17, 12 p.m. ET.

A Public World

Best Of The Rest

In the 2023 season, the betting public is having a heck of a ride.

Public sides — or 51% of betting tickets or more — are 108-86-6 ATS this season. The best 14-week start for the public in the Bet Labs database — which dates back to 2005.

A $100 bettor would be up $1,200 taking each public side this year and the public has gone .500 ATS or better in 12 of 14 weeks this year.

Peyton To Patrick

Historic Home Dogs

Chiefs are currently big favorites in New England in Week 14 — largest home dog for Pats since 2001 in Tom Brady's first start. The Patriots haven’t closed above a 7.5 pt underdog at home since November 18, 2001 as an 8.5 pt underdog at home against the Greatest Show on Turf Rams with Kurt Warner.

Largest Home Underdog – Patriots w/ Bill Belichick
+11.5: 2001 vs. IND (W, 44-13) – Peyton Manning
+8.5: 2001 vs. STL (L, 24-17) – Kurt Warner
+7.5: 2023 vs. BUF (W, 29-25) – Josh Allen

A Total Mess

Big Week

Week 15 is a massive slate for preseason win totals.

• 6 teams can go over their win total: SF, BAL, DET, MIA, TB, LAR — IND, HOU, DAL have already went over.
• 3 teams can go under their win total: KC, BUF, NO — CIN, LAC, NYJ, NE, CAR have already went under.

This would be a very rare win total under for Andy Reid, Chiefs. KC is 9-1 to their win total over in the last 10 years. Andy Reid win total results with KC/PHI: 9-1 over w/ KC | 9-4-1 over w/ PHI (18-5-1 overall to over).

Rare Dogs

A Star Is Born

The Cowboys are outscoring their opponents by 14.46 PPG this season — highest mark in the NFL — and are listed as underdogs vs. Bills.

Highest PPG Diff. — Underdogs in December or later last 20 years

+15.4: 2019 Ravens (+2) vs. PIT — W, 28-10
+15.4: 2019 49ers (+5.5) at BAL — L, 20-17
+14.5: 2023 Cowboys (+1.5) at BUF
+14.5: 2005 Colts (+10) at SEA — L, 28-13

Back Up The Truck

QB Center

The big story of the weekend is backup QBs. As of now, we are bracing for between eight and 10 backups to start in Week 15. Here is what designates a backup QB.

We had eight backup QBs start last week. If nine or more backups start this week, that would be the most in a non-Week 17 or Week 18 since Week 14 of the 2013 season — 10 years ago last week, when we also had nine backups start.

Since the start of last season, backup QBs are 68-94 SU, but 88-69-5 ATS.

Speaking of quarterbacks, we've had 54 in total start entering Week 15. The record for total QBs to start in a season is technically 87 done in the strike-impacted 1987 season. The real record, set last year, is 67, which broke the 2007 record of 64 backup QBs to start.

Vegas Nights

The Betting Impact

• First let's look at the Raiders and this week: Raiders have played 10 night games at home in Las Vegas. They are 5-5 SU, 7-3 ATS, but just 1-2 SU/ATS vs. AFC West.

This is the 11th night game in Las Vegas since the Raiders moved there in 2020. The Raiders are just 5-5 SU but 7-3 ATS – that ATS mark is the second-best in the NFL behind the Eagles.

• Now for the impact: The Vikings are coming off a road game in Vegas. Teams after playing the Raiders on the road since they moved to Las Vegas are just 10-20 ATS since 2020, which is the second-worst mark of any previous road team in the NFL in that span (worst is Atlanta at 8-20-1 ATS).

Chargers at Raiders | Thursday, Dec 14

8:20pm ET | Amazon

LVR -3 | 36.5

Chargers

• Fewest SU wins among teams with win total of 8.5 or more: Jets – 5 | Chargers – 5
• The Chargers have played 31 games since the start of last season, and 21 of them have finished within seven points.
  22 of the Chargers last 32 games have been decided by 7 points or less dating back to the Week 18, 2021 Raiders loss.
• Staley as a dog of 3 or more points: 6-4 ATS – he is 0-2 ATS in this spot in 2023.
• Staley on road: 14-10 ATS, 7-7 ATS as a road favorite, 4-4 ATS as a road favorite of 3 or more points
• Staley on short rest: 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS | 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS on road
• Staley on TNF: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS (Both games vs Chiefs)
• Easton Stick gets the start for the Chargers on Thursday Night Football. He will be just the fourth different starting QB for the Chargers since 2006 — the fewest of any NFL team in that span (GB with seven has second-fewest).
• Staley vs. Raiders: 3-2 SU/ATS | vs. AFC West: 6-9 SU, 8-7 ATS
• Teams off a division loss, facing a division foe again are 293-255-17. $100 bettor up $2,242 last 20 years.
  Week 15: LAC
• "Bet dogs in low total games" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 180-124-7 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 & 43-30-3 ATS this season.
  Week 15: LAC, MIN, CAR, NYG, HOU, NYJ, CHI, NE
• Good teams that score fewer than 14 points are good bets the following week. Teams who are over .500 SU and off scoring fewer than 14 points are 105-78-6 ATS (57.4%) last 10 years.
  Week 15: LAC, MIN

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Raiders

• Raiders have played 10 night games at home in Las Vegas. They are 5-5 SU, 7-3 ATS, but just 1-2 SU/ATS vs. AFC West.
  Raiders haven’t won a road game at night since 2017. Seven straight losses SU.
  This is the 11th night game in Vegas since the Raiders moved there in 2020. Raiders are just 5-5 SU and 7-3 ATS – ATS mark is second-best in NFL behind just Eagles.
• Recent generations don’t know a good primetime Raiders team.
  Over the last 20 years, they are 19-35 SU in night games.
  Two of 13 QBs are above SU at night for Raiders: Jason Campbell, 1-0 SU. Aidan O’Connell joined this list after defeating the Jets in November.
• Historically, the Raiders don’t win in November or later.
  Over the last 20 years, they’ve been over .500 SU in this window once (2016).
  In 2023, they are 2-3 SU in November or later this season.
• The Raiders team total under is 11-2 this season – Tied for the best record to the under in the NFL with Patriots.
• Aidan O’Connell is the 24th different Raiders starting QB over the last 20 years.
  Only three of those 24 are profitable ATS for the Raiders: Jason Campbell, Terrelle Pryor, and O’Connell (3-2-1 ATS)
• Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas
  Raiders at home in Vegas: 15-17 SU, 17-14-1 ATS
  On road/neutral: 14-18 SU, 13-19 ATS
• At 3-1-1 ATS, Antonio Pierce is already making Raiders history.
  3rd LV coach since 1990 over .500 ATS: Hue Jackson and Jon Gruden
  This season: Pierce: 3-1-1 ATS | McDaniels: 3-5 ATS
• Haven’t won division in 20 seasons – Tied for the third-longest streak in NFL (CLE 30, DET 29, NYJ 20)
• Teams to see a line move 3 points or more away from them (ex. -3 to -6) are 36-42-2 ATS this season – 75-102-3 ATS (42.4%) since start of last year and 132-166-4 ATS (44%) since 2020
  Week 15: LV, DET, IND, BAL, NO, MIA, SF, LAR, KC
• Raiders are at home vs. Chargers on Thursday Night Football this week off getting shutout. Teams off getting shutout are 29-13-3 ATS (69%) in their next game since 2015.
• Teams after scoring 3 points or fewer in their previous game are 80-53-4 ATS (60.2%) last decade.
  Week 15: LV, MIN

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Vikings at Bengals | Saturday, Dec. 16

1:00pm ET | NFL Network

CIN -3 | 41.5

Vikings

• Teams playing on the road on short rest, after playing on the road in their previous game are 40-67 SU, 48-55-4 ATS last 20 years. These teams are 7-15 ATS last three seasons and 22-34-4 ATS last decade.
  Week 15: DEN, MIN
• "Bet dogs in low total games" == NFL underdogs in games with total below 42 are 180-124-7 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 and 43-30-3 ATS this season.
  Week 15: LAC, MIN, CAR, NYG, HOU, NYJ, CHI, NE
• Good teams that score fewer than 14 points are profitable bets the following week. Teams over .500 SU and coming off scoring fewer than 14 points are 105-78-6 ATS (57.4%) last 10 years.
  Week 15: LAC, MIN
• Teams after scoring 3 points or less in their previous game are 80-53-4 ATS (60.2%) last decade.
  Week 15: LV, MIN
• Tough to play after a party city. Over the last five years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 100-139-7 ATS (41.8%).
  Week 15: DEN, MIN, CAR
• Over the last decade, teams to play on road, coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 61-98-6 ATS (38.4%).
  Week 15: MIN, DEN, TB, HOU
• Tough trip across the country. Teams going from Pacific or Mountain to the Eastern time zone on short rest are 32-42 SU, 30-42-2 ATS last 20 years
  Week 15: DEN, MIN
• Teams to travel from PST to EST have had first half success going 111-70-3 1H ATS (61.3%) since 2017.
  Week 15: MIN, DEN
• The Vikings are coming off a road game in Vegas. Teams after playing the Raiders on the road since they moved to Las Vegas are just 10-20 ATS since 2020, that is the second-worst mark of any previous road team in the NFL in that span (worst is Atlanta at 8-20-1 ATS).
• Vikings are 12-0-1 to the first quarter under this season.
• Kirk Cousins last played for the Vikings in Week 8. Since, the Vikings offense is 24th in EPA/play and even 29th in rush EPA/play, impacting the ground game.
• Nick Mullens career SU/ATS: 5-12 SU, 6-11 ATS
  On road: 2-5 SU/ATS | As underdog: 4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS
• Josh Dobbs career SU/ATS: 3-11 SU, 7-6-1 ATS
  On road: 1-6 SU, 3-3-1 ATS | As underdog: 2-10 SU, 7-5 ATS
• With Cousins out, Minnesota will continue to go to a back up QB.
  Vikings will start at least four QBs this season – Cousins, Dobbs, Hall, Mullens – their most in a season in franchise history.
  Since 2015, only four backup QBs had started for Minnesota entering this week; now there's a fifth: Nick Mullens, Josh Dobbs, Jaren Hall, Sean Mannion and Case Keenum. They are 16-8 SU, 15-8-1 ATS in 24 games filling in for the Vikings.
• Kevin O’Connell as a favorite and an underdog
  Favorite: 16-4 SU, 9-9-2 ATS
  Underdog: 4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS
• O’Connell off win/loss
  Off a loss: 4-5-1 ATS
  Off a win: 9-9-1 ATS
• O’Connell off short rest: 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS | short rest on road: 1-1 SU/ATS
• The Vikings are 10-3 to the under this season. Between 2020-22, Minnesota was 34-16-1 to the over in that span.
• Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell by time of day
  1P ET or earlier: 16-3 SU, 10-8-1 ATS
  2P ET or later: 4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS
• Vikings have 23 fumbles as a team – Tied for second-most in the NFL (Jets, 25, Jaguars 23)
  Dobbs has 14 fumbles now, most in the NFL. The Next highest is 12 (Tua Tagovailoa).
  14 would've led the league in two of the last three seasons.
• The Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last year during the regular season. Minnesota has now played five straight one-score games entering Week 14 and they’ve played 10 one-score games in 2023 (6-6 SU) in 12 total games.

Worst point differential among 13+ win teams since the merger (incl. postseason)
2022 Vikings -10 2023: 8.5 win total (7-6 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)
1979 Oilers +26 1980: 11-6 SU (WC), 6-9-2 ATS
1990 Raiders +31 1991: 9-8 SU (WC), 8-9 ATS (U10 win total)
1993 Chiefs +31 1994: 9-8 SU (WC), 9-8 ATS (U9.5 win total)

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Bengals

• Jake Browning gets the start again for the Bengals with Joe Burrow out for the season.
  Browning got the big upset win over Jacksonville two weeks ago and followed it up with another win over the Colts. After leaving in the fourth quarter because of hand cramps, he was OK to return. Its worth noting Zac Taylor has done this before. In 2020, the Bengals upset the Steelers as 14.5-point dogs without Burrow then came back the next week and won again without Burrow, beating the Texans as underdogs.
• AJ McCarron career SU/ATS: 2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS
  62.9% comp%, 6 TD, 3 INT, 20 sacks, 6.7 Y/A
• Zac Taylor with and without Joe Burrow
  With: 34-24-1 SU, 36-22-1 ATS
  Without: 6-20 SU, 12-14 ATS
• Taylor after the Bengals allow 14 points or less in previous game: 6-4 SU/ATS
• Entering the season, this Bengals campaign had more expectations on it than most.
  Bengals had a win total of 11.5 in the preseason. Their first double-digit win total since 1989 (ends second-longest drought without a double-digit win total in NFL – DET).
• During Burrow’s tenure, the Bengals have started a backup QB three times with Ryan Finley, Brandon Allen and now Jake Browning. They’ve gone 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS.
  Since he was drafted, Burrow is the second-most profitable QB against the spread in the NFL behind Jared Goff (36-22-1 ATS in his career.)
• Bengals had a league-low 49 points through four games. One out of 64 teams to score under 50 points in first four games have made the playoffs since 1990 (1992 Chargers)
• Browning’s 79.3 completion percentage is the highest completion percentage by a QB in his first 3 career starts since 1950.
  He joins Chad Pennington as the only QBs since 1950 with a 70+ completion percentage and 95+ passer rating in each of his first three career starts.
• Over .500 SU teams with a negative average SU point differential in November or later are 146-177-13 ATS (45.2%) last 20 years.
  Week 15: DEN, CIN

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Steelers at Colts | Saturday, Dec. 16

4:30pm ET | NFL Network

IND -1.5 | 41.5

Steelers

• The Steelers are 10-2 in their last 12 one-score games and 12-3 over their last 15 one-score games. Even dating back to 2021, Pittsburgh is 22-9-1 in one-score games.
• The Steelers were the first team since 1933, when the NFL began tracking rushing and receiving statistics, to be outgained in each of their first eight games and still have a winning record – they did it through 10 games.
  Weeks 12 and 13 PIT outgained their opponent in yards. In Week 14, they were back to being outgained.
• The Steelers have 19 consecutive non-losing seasons (Tied for second-most with the Patriots 2001-2019, 19 – Cowboys have the record; 21, 1965-1985 under Landry) and 16 of those seasons have been under Mike Tomlin to begin his coaching career (NFL record)
• Tomlin is 46-22-2 ATS as an underdog from Week 5 forward, including 38-32 SU on the moneyline. His ATS mark is the most profitable of all 140 coaches since 2005.
• Rest has been good for Tomlin teams. On extended prep, the Steelers are 14-5-1 ATS since 2018, making Tomlin the best coach in the NFL ATS in that span.
  3-0 ATS this season and 9-2 ATS last three seasons
• Tomlin is 36-20-2 ATS as an underdog when facing above .500 SU teams – best in NFL last 20 years. In that spot vs. the AFC, Tomlin is 26-14-2 ATS.
• Trubisky on extended rest: 3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS
• Steelers under Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 37-25-3 ATS.
  Steelers under Tomlin without Roethlisberger or Pickett: 22-16-3 ATS
• Steelers are 31-49-1 1H ATS last five seasons under Tomlin, making him the worst coach against the first half in that span.
• One game of production. Steelers put up 422 yards of offense in Offensive Coordinator Eddie Faulkner’s first game.
  In the following two weeks they have tallied 317 yards vs the Cardinals and a measly 264 against the Patriots last week. (0-2 SU/ATS)
  Matt Canada in Pittsburgh: 45 total games, zero games with 400 yards of offense, two games with 30 points.
  The Steelers played 45 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense. Their last game with 400+ yards prior to last week came in the Wild Card playoffs in 2020-21, the game before Canada was hired.
  45 games was the longest active streak in the NFL – longest streak since Rams in 2014-17 (46 games). They were the sixth team over the last 20 years with this long of a streak.
• Over the last two seasons, Steelers are 15-8 SU/ATS with TJ Watt, 1-6 SU without him (2-4-1 ATS).
• Since T.J. Watt’s first game in 2017, Steelers are 67-45-2 SU, 59-53-2 ATS.
  They’ve played without him for just 11 games. Pittsburgh is 1-10 SU, 4-6-1 ATS in those games.
  Which means they are 65-35-2 SU, 54-47-1 ATS with Watt.
• Trubisky is 31-27 SU, 27-28-3 ATS in his career.
  Trubisky has made six starts for Steelers – 2-4 SU, 2-3-1 ATS
  Trubisky is 0-3 SU at home in Pittsburgh for the Steelers
  Trubisky is 3-11-2 ATS in his last 16 home starts for the Steelers and Bears.
• Steelers are going to a backup QB for the 27th time in the last decade this week.
  They are 14-11-1 SU/ATS in those games – If you remove the 14 games they had a backup start in 2019, they are 6-5-1 SU, 5-6-1 ATS with a backup last decade.
  Backup QBs: Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, Devlin Hodges, Landry Jones, Michael Vick
  Steelers with a backup QB at home: 9-5-1 SU, 7-7-1 ATS last decade
• Steelers are 47-47 SU, 57-33-4 ATS as an underdog under Tomlin
  SU he’s second-most profitable of the last 20 years behind Tom Cable (+$2,864)
  ATS he’s most profitable last 20 years (+$2,160)
  Steelers haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog since 2016 and it's only happened twice under Tomlin.
  PIT is 4-3 SU, ATS as an underdog in 2023.
• Mike Tomlin road unders. They are 81-59-1 (58%) as coach of the Steelers, best of any coach last 20 years. It is 56-25-1 (69%) last decade.
• When Steelers open -3 or smaller, or as an underdog, they are 86-54-6 ATS under Tomlin

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Colts

• Colts are 10-3 to the team total over – most team total overs by any team this season. One of three teams with 10+ team total overs this season: IND, CLE, DAL
  Colts went 5-12 team total overs last season
• Still Minshew time in Indy. Minshew is 7-12 SU, 8-11 ATS in “toss up” games – a spread of 4 points or less
  Minshew is 6-14 SU in his last 20 starts. He’s 8-12 ATS in his last 20 starts.
• Minshew is 4-9 SU vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or fewer on the season.
• Colts got Jonathan Taylor back in the mix a bit, but he is now sidelined for a few weeks.
  Colts when Taylor gets 10+ carries: 24-19-1 SU
  Fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play: 7-13 SU
• Minshew has now won consecutive games SU within the same season for the first time since October 2019. This is Minshew’s first four-game SU win streak in his career. He had never won three straight prior to this.
  The streak came to an end last week vs Bengals
• Minshew has started six “primetime” games in his career – night game, international, non-Sunday, etc – his teams are 2-4 SU/ATS, but 1-0 this year beating the Patriots overseas.
• Home cooking doesn’t solve all wounds. Teams to allow 28 points or more in consecutive games and then play as a home favorite are 97-121-2 ATS (44.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 15: IND, DET
• Minshew vs. team on extended rest (eight or more days): 0-4 SU, losing by 12.25 PPG.
• Minshew has faced eight teams above .500 SU in his career, his teams are 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS.
• Colts are 5-4 SU playing a backup QB in Minshew this year. Between 2017-22, Indy was 4-14 SU with a backup.
  Colts QBs have struggled in the back up role. They are 9-18 SU (14-13 ATS) since 2017. Colts backup 2017-22: 4-14 SU, 8-10 ATS. In 2023: 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS.
• When Minshew’s opponent scores more than 20 pts, he is now 2-17 SU after losing to the Bengals last week.
• Minshew is 8-11 SU when he throws at least two passing TDs in a game in his career.
• Minshew has made six starts where his opponent is on short rest since 2020 and his teams are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS. Overall he is 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS in this spot.
• Colts had the fourth-worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 100-1 entering the season (ARI, TB, HOU, IND).
  Their third time at 100-1 or higher since 2000 (2023, 2017, 2012).
  Not to mention, their win total of 6.5 was their lowest since 2012.
  Colts are 7-6 SU this year entering Week 15.
• Minshew as favorite vs. underdog
  Favorite: 7-4 SU/ATS
  Underdog: 6-16 SU, 9-13 ATS
• Teams to see line move 3 points or more away from them (ex. -3 to -6) are 36-42-2 ATS this season are 75-102-3 ATS (42.4%) since start of last year & 132-166-4 ATS (44%) since 2020
  Week 15: LV, DET, IND, BAL, NO, MIA, SF, LAR, KC
• Hard to shake the past. Teams with four wins or fewer the year prior, who are listed as a favorite the following year are 214-256-14 ATS (45.5%) last 20 years, including 39-51-2 ATS last five years.
  Week 15: IND
• Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 88-62-1 ATS (59%) since 2020.
  Week 15: IND, CAR, WAS, HOU, PHI

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Broncos at Lions | Sunday, Dec. 16

8:15pm ET | NFL Network

DET -5.5 | 49

Broncos

• Broncos are 6-1 SU in their last seven games after a 1-5 SU start
  Broncos could join the 1970 Bengals, the 2015 Kansas City Chiefs, the 2018 Indianapolis Colts and Washington in 2020 as the only teams to start 1-5 and make the postseason
• The under is 6-0-1 on the Broncos win total since 2016 and they are currently 7-6 SU with an 8.5 win total, so the fight is on.
• Broncos are 3-10 against the third quarter spread this season and 10-20 ATS in the third quarter the past two seasons.
• Broncos defense is third in EPA/play since Week 6. In Weeks 1-5, they were 32nd, last in the NFL.
• Broncos defense allowed a completion rate of 73.6% through eight games this season, that was tied for the third-highest completion percentage through eight games in the Super Bowl era. Since that point, the Broncos have allowed a completion rate of 55.3%, lowest mark in the NFL.
• Wilson is 17-25 SU over the past three seasons, he was 107-52-1 SU in his first nine seasons in the NFL.
  Wilson is 8-12 SU in his last 20 starts and 10-16 SU in his last 26 starts for the Broncos.
• Wilson after a SU loss career: 44-23 SU, 37-25-5 | with the Broncos: 6-10 SU, 7-8-1 ATS
  After a SU win: 74-47-1 SU, 60-60-2 | with the Broncos: 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS
• Wilson with Seahawks vs. Broncos
  DEN: 11-17 SU, 11-16-1 ATS
  SU mark is 10th-worst in NFL, ATS is fifth-worst
  SEA: 113-60-1 SU, 90-77-7 ATS
• Wilson’s 11-17 SU mark has lost bettors $436 with Broncos, making him the second-least profitable QB on ML for Broncos last 20 years (Kyle Orton, -$628)
• Payton, Broncos are 5-7-1 ATS this season. Payton’s worst season since finishing 6-10 ATS in 2007 and 2014, and 7-10 in 2010
  Payton has gone seven straight seasons with his team above .500 ATS (2015-21)
  In 16 seasons, his teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total
• Most profitable coaches ATS last 20 yrs: 1. Belichick, 2. McCarthy, 3. Payton
  Payton fell behind Zimmer after the loss to the Jets earlier this year. Bounced back in front after the five-game win streak. Fell back behind after loss to Texans. Bounced back after win over Chargers.
• Sean Payton in night games: 43-22 SU, 34-30-1 ATS. He’s 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS with Broncos.
  Payton is 31-24-1 ATS at night with Brees, 3-6 ATS with all other QBs
  Payton is 12-11 SU as a dog at night. He’s won SU as a dog with four different QBs: Brees, Bridgewater, Russ and Taysom Hill.
• Russell Wilson is 36-18-1 SU, 31-21-1 ATS in night games during his career.
  That 31-21-1 ATS mark at night is fourth-best among 206 QBs last 20 years
  He is 3-4 SU/ATS with Broncos and 33-14-1 SU, 28-17-1 ATS with Seahawks
  Russ is 24-5 SU in night games at home and 12-13-1 SU away from home
• Tough to play after a party city. Last five years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 100-139-7 ATS (41.8%).
  Week 15: DEN, MIN, CAR
• Tough to play after a party city. Last decade, teams to play on road, coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 61-98-6 ATS (38.4%).
  Week 15: MIN, DEN, TB, HOU
• Tough trip across the country. Teams going from Pacific or Mountain to Eastern time zone on short rest are 32-42 SU, 30-42-2 ATS last 20 years
  Week 15: DEN, MIN
• Teams to travel from Pacific to Eastern time zone have had 1H success going 111-70-3 1H ATS (61.3%) since 2017.
  Week 15: MIN, DEN
• Over .500 SU teams with a negative average SU point differential in November or later are 146-177-13 ATS (45.2%) last 20 years.
  Week 15: DEN, CIN

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Lions

• • Lions can go over their win total of 9.5 this week.
    Detroit is the only NFL team without double-digit win total in Wild Card era (since 1990) – their win total of 9.5 this year was their highest in Wild Card era
  • Goff broke a 14-game streak of completing at least 60% of his passes last week against the Bears.
  • The Lions scored just 13 points last week. Goff is 8-2 ATS since 2019 after scoring fewer than 14 points in his previous games, including 5-2 ATS with Lions.
  • Jared Goff and the Lions will now play their final four games in a dome: DEN, at MIN, at DAL, MIN
  • Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor.
    Indoor: 31-16 ATS (21-8 ATS last three seasons)
    Outdoor: 34-35-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in Nov or earlier | 9-15-1 ATS in Dec/Jan)
  • Lions are -1000 to win the NFC North. DET was +135 to win division entering season – shortest division odds for DET last 20 years – Lions were favored to win NFC North in preseason for 1st time since current iteration of division in 2002. Last time they had best odds for division team was 1992
  • Goff has played 17 games on short rest in his career, he is 6-11 SU, 9-8 ATS. He’s just 1-5 SU on short rest with the Lions and 2-8 SU on short rest in his last 10 starts in the spot.

• Goff is 15-8 ATS off a SU loss with the Lions, including 11-4 ATS when that game is played at home.
  When Goff’s teams are above .500 SU and coming off a loss, he’s 13-6-1 ATS
  Best QBs in that spot last 20 years: Brady, Rodgers, Luck, Goff
• Lions have covered 6 straight games off a SU loss and are 12-5 ATS off a loss in their last 17 games in that spot.
• Dating back to last season, Goff has covered 7-1 in his last eight games vs. above .500 SU opponents, going 12-4 ATS in this spot since 2021 – second-best mark in the NFL, behind Joe Burrow.
• Goff is 21-8-1 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
• Goff is most profitable QB ATS over last five years (47-28-1 ATS, +$1,559).
• Lions are 20-10 ATS since the start of last season, most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($828).
  Lions are two wins away from 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons (8-5 ATS this year). Prior to this stretch, Lions had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995.
  Lions are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
• Goff is 20-10 ATS at home since 2020, third-most profitable QB in the NFL
  Goff on the road since 2020: 17-13 ATS
• Goff went 383 pass attempts without an interception before throwing one in Week 2 – the third-longest streak in NFL history behind Aaron Rodgers (402) and Tom Brady (399).
  In 2023, he is +3.1 units betting his yes INT prop.
  If you bet on Goff to throw an interception in every game last season, you would have been down 7.3U (most of any QB).
• Home cooking doesn’t solve all wounds. Teams to allow 28 points or more in consecutive games and then play as a home favorite are 97-121-2 ATS (44.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 15: IND, DET
• Teams coming off a road game in Soldier Field are 96-61-2 ATS in their next game in the last 20 years, most profitable previous road city in the NFL; $1,200 more on a $100 bet than the second city, Jacksonville.
  Week 15: DET
• Good teams that score fewer than 14 points are good bets the following week. Teams over .500 SU and off scoring fewer than 14 points are 104-79-6 ATS (56.8%) last 10 years.
  Week 15: DET, HOU, PHI

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Falcons at Panthers | Sunday, Dec. 17

1:00pm ET | FOX

ATL -3 | 32.5

Falcons

• Atlanta is currently a 3-point favorite in their week 15 matchup with Carolina. Each game the Falcons have played in this season had a spread of less than 4 points. Previously in the Super Bowl era, the longest such streak to start a season was eight games (2004, Washington).
• Falcons had won two in a row – their second winning streak of the season (started 2-0 SU) prior to losing at home to the Buccaneers. Atlanta is 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS on a 2+ game win streak under Arthur Smith
• Falcons are 4-9 ATS this season, the fourth-worst record in the NFL behind the Patriots, Saints, Panthers.
• The seesaw QB battle in Atlanta has swung back to Desmond Ridder (ranks min. 50 QB plays; of 49 QBs)
  Ridder: 36th EPA/play, 19th success rate, 27th comp%
  Heinicke: 20th EPA/play, 32nd success rate, 43rd comp%
• The Falcons have faced Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Jaren Hall and Will Levis. This week will be their fifth game vs. a rookie QB this season
  The Falcons and Saints are set to play against a starting rookie QB for fifth time this season. That would tie the most games against rookie QBs since the merger
• Falcons are 4-7-2 on the first half moneyline this season
• Falcons are 5-13-4 1H ML, 5-17 1H ATS in their last 22 games.
  Their 9-21 1H ATS last two seasons is the worst in NFL
  After starting the season 0-6 1H ATS and 1-8 1H ATS, Falcons are 3-1- 1H ATS in their last four games.
• Ridder is 3-10-2 straight up and 3-12 against the first half spread in his career. Falcons are failing to cover 1H spread by 4.5 PPG with Ridder at QB.
  1H points under Ridder: 3, 9, 7, 10, 14, 3, 3, 0, 7, 10, 10, 3, 14, 10, 10
  Dating back to college, Ridder is 3-14 1H ATS in his last 17 starts.
• Lowest Falcons Totals Last 20 Years
  31, 2005 at CHI. 16-3
  33, 2023 at NYJ, 13-8
  34.5, 2007 at JAC. 13-7
  34.5, 2007 at MIN, 24-3
• Falcons have struggled ATS recently.
  They are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games overall dating back to last season.
  3-9 ATS last 12 games.
• Arthur Smith teams tend to fade late.
  Sept-Oct: 11-12 ATS
  Nov. on: 8-15-1 ATS
  Smith is 6-6 ATS in first four games of the season – his teams are 13-21-1 ATS in game 5 forward.
• Arthur Smith is 11-12 SU, 7-16 ATS at home as a head coach (9-15 SU, 12-11-1 ATS road/neutral) – Worst Falcons head coach ATS at home last 20 years
• Falcons are 5-13-1 ATS after a SU win under Arthur Smith – 1-5 ATS this season.
  Ranks 136th of 143 coaches last 20 years and ranks dead last of 49 coaches since he was hired in 2021.
• Falcons are 12-13 ATS after a SU loss under Arthur Smith. An average team. After a win, not so much.
  Falcons are 5-14 SU, 5-13-1 ATS after a SU win under Smith.
• Falcons continue their journey have playing zero games this season with a positive rest differential vs. their opponent.
  Played on road before game in London (Wk 3, 4) – they lost at Lions.
  7 of last 11 games on the road – they are 3-4 SU in this stretch.
  3 of last 4 games are on the road.
• Desmond Ridder is 5-1 ATS vs. NFC South and 1-8 ATS vs. all other divisions.
  Most Profitable NFC South QBs ATS in Division Last 20 Years

1. Jake Delhomme (21-12-1), 2. Taysom Hill (5-0 ATS), 3. Ridder (5-1 ATS)

• Falcons have had the lead at the half on the road with Ridder one time (last week). They are 1-5-1 1H ML.

Ridder Home/Road NFL Career

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Panthers

• The Panthers are one of two teams to be listed as underdogs in all of their games so far this season along with the Cardinals.
• The Panthers are 9-4 against first quarter spread this season, including 4-1 1Q ATS at home. Panthers are 18-7 1Q ATS the past three seasons.
• Bryce Young is 1-11 SU so far this season. Since 2000, No. 1 overall QB picks are 63-131-2 SU in their first season.
• Panthers have really struggled on the road recently.
  Panthers are 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS on the road this season, failing to cover the spread by 6.43 PPG and losing by 12.57 PPG.
  Worst SU this season: CAR 0-8, TEN 0-6
  Worst ATS this season: TEN 1-5 ATS, NYG 2-5 ATS, CAR 2-6 ATS
  Panthers are 9-16 ATS last three seasons, the worst mark in the NFL

Highest Team O/U – Draft QB 1st Overall in WC Era (since 1990)
1992 Giants/Dave Brown – 9 (Supplemental Draft) (6-10 SU)
2023 Panthers/Bryce Young – 7.5 (1-11 SU)
2016 Rams/Jared Goff – 7.5 (4-12 SU)

• Bryce Young vs. NFC South: 0-4 SU and 1-2-1 ATS
  Panthers ATS recently vs. NFC South opponents
  Since 2019 Panthers are 8-20 SU and 12-15-1 ATS in NFC South
  TB: 3-6 ATS | ATL: 4-5 ATS | NO: 5-4-1 ATS
• Panthers recently vs. NFC South:
  Since 2019, Panthers are 8-20 SU and 12-15-1 ATS vs NFC South
  Home: 4-9 SU and 4-8-1 ATS
  Road/Neutral: 4-11 SU and 8-7 ATS
  CAR vs. Arthur Smith: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS
• Tough to play after a party city. Last five years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 100-139-7 ATS (41.8%).
  Week 15: DEN, MIN, CAR
• Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 88-62-1 ATS (59%) since 2020.
  Week 15: IND, CAR, WAS, HOU, PHI

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Bears at Browns | Sunday, Dec. 17

1:00pm ET | FOX

CLE -3 | 37

Bears

• Since start of last season, Bears are 8-22 SU .. 4-3 SU at night, 4-19 SU not at night.
• Fields in night games: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS | all other times: 5-21 SU, 8-17-1 ATS
• Fields on the road: 4-13 SU, 7-10 ATS | road vs. above .500 SU teams: 2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS
• Bears are 1-9 SU in their last 10 road games and 2-13 SU in their last 15 road games. Chicago’s five SU road wins since 2021, is tied for fewest in the NFL.
• Bears are 7-6 to the over this year (Tied for third best mark in NFL) and 17-13 to the over since start of last season, second best mark in the NFL (Lions are 18-12).
• Bears have won consecutive games SU since for the first time since Jan. 2, 2022.
• Montez Sweat arrived in Chicago for Week 9. Bears are sixth in EPA/play defense in Week 9 on, they were 30th Weeks 1-8.
  Bears had 10 sacks Weeks 1-8, fewest in NFL. They already have 11 since with four games to go.
• The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going a pathetic 8-20-1 ATS vs the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,238 – that is the least profitable team vs. their own division in the NFL in that span.
  CHI is 20-30-1 ATS vs. other divisions since 2019
• Fields is 8-26 SU, 12-21-1 ATS in his career.
  He is 94th of 96 QBs in ATS profit since he entered the league (96. Mac, 95. Carr, 94. Fields).
• Fields 4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS vs. NFC North
  Fields vs. all other divisions: 5-15 SU, 7-12-1 ATS
  Bears are 20-30-1 ATS vs. non-NFC North divisions since 2019, 3rd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Falcons, Raiders.
• Fields is 13-20-1 1H ATS in his career.
  Since he was drafted in 2021, only Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, Desmond Ridder and Kenny Pickett have been worse 1H ATS.
• When Bears opponents score more than 20 points vs. a Justin Fields-Bears team, they are 21-0 SU. All 8 Fields wins have come with opponents scoring 20 points or less.
• Bears haven’t gone over their win total since 2018 – they are 2-9-1 to the under since 2011
• They've never had 4,000 yard passer — 14 straight seasons without QB starting every game, one pro bowl QB since 1985 (Mitchell Trubisky, 2018)
• Over the last 20 years, Bears are 67-83-4 ATS (43.5%) after a SU win. Under Matt Eberflus, Bears are 2-5 SU/ATS after a win, failing to cover the spread by 1.57 PPG.
  Bears are 31-47-1 ATS as a dog after a SU win last 20 years
• Chicago is 7-12-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall and they are 28-50-2 ATS over the last five seasons – worst mark in the NFL
• "Bet dogs in low total games" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 180-124-7 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 & 43-30-3 ATS this season.
  Week 15: LAC, MIN, CAR, NYG, HOU, NYJ, CHI, NE
• Bet “small, bad, road dogs” == Teams to open as a dog of 7 points or less road/neutral, who won five games or fewer the previous year, are 358-253-10 ATS (58.6%) last 20 years.
  Week 15: DEN, HOU, CHI

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Browns

• With Deshaun Watson now gone for the season with shoulder surgery, it's another week with a backup QB in Cleveland. The Browns will start a backup QB for the 58th time in the last decade this week. They are 20-38 SU, 27-30-1 ATS in those games.
  Browns have actually done a good job in these games lately going 5-7 SU and 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 games with a backup.
  Under Stefanski, Browns are 9-12 SU, 11-9-1 ATS with a backup QB.
• Here is how Browns QBs stack up this season (ranks min. 50 QB plays; of 51 QBs)
  Watson: 32nd EPA/play, 39th success rate, 37th comp%
  Flacco: 39th EPA/play, 35th success rate, 48th comp%
  DTR: 47th EPA/play, 44th success rate, 49th comp%
  Walker: 49th EPA/play, 47th success rate, 51st comp%
• Stefanski with Browns
  Favorite: 24-10 SU, 14-20 ATS
  Dog: 10-20 SU, 16-13-1 ATS
• Browns are 14-13-1 ATS after a loss under Stefanski.
  Browns are 12-20 SU, 13-19 ATS after a SU win under Stefanski
  Browns are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after a SU win.
• Browns are 12-11 SU, 8-15 ATS vs. AFC North under Kevin Stefanski. Of 146 head coaches last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is 140th.
  Stefanski is 22-18-1 ATS against non-AFC North teams.
• The Browns pass defense has been unreal.
  Fewest pass yds allowed thru 13 games since 2012 Steelers.
  Their 183 first downs allowed thru 13 games is fewest for any team since 2008 Ravens.
• Browns rush offense since Nick Chubb’s injury. Since Week 3:
  Browns are 14th in NFL in rush EPA and 15th in rush success.
• Flacco career SU/ATS in Cleveland. 11 total games started. 10-2 SU, 9-2-1 ATS.
• Flacco in his career SU/ATS…
  Home: 64-29 SU, 44-47-2 | Road/Neutral: 46-58 SU, 53-45-6 ATS
• Stefanski has done well after Browns defense has allowed a bunch of points.
  After 24 or more: 16-12-1 ATS (7-1 ATS this season)
• With their next win, Browns would have their most SU wins in a season with a win total of 9 or more since moving to Cleveland in 1999 and they would tie their most wins in a season with 40-1 Super Bowl odds or shorter entering the regular season (2002).

Browns Highest Win Total Since Moving to Cleveland in 1999 (Wins)
10.5: 2021 (8)
9: 2023 (8-5 SU)
9: 2019 (6)

Browns SU record with Super Bowl odds of 40-1 or shorter since 1990:
2023: 8-5 SU
2022: 7-10
2021: 8-9
2019: 6-10
2008: 4-12
2003: 5-11
2002: 9-7
1995: 5-11
1993: 7-9
1992: 7-9
1990: 3-13

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Buccaneers at Packers | Sunday, Dec. 17

1:00pm ET | FOX

GB -3.5 | 41.5

Buccaneers

• Baker Mayfield is 24-21 ATS as an underdog and 13-25-1 ATS as a favorite
• Mayfield has been an under machine since the start of last year, 15-8 in that span, including 12-6 in his last 18 starts.
• Mayfield's career at Lambeau: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS
• Battle of the Bays.
  Recent history: Met 10 times in the last 20 years,
  SU/ATS TB vs GB: 5-5 SU/ATS
  Tampa Bay has the only win in the playoffs, 31-26 in Lambeau in 2021 NFC Championship
• Baker Mayfield is 37-46-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,097 (274th of 283 QBs in the last 20 years).
• Bucs had the longest ATS road losing streak in the NFL entering the season (six games). They then covered five straight road games to begin the season before failing to cover at IND
  Bucs were one of two teams undefeated ATS on the road this season (started 6-0 ATS on road): None remain after Jags lost in CLE last week
  Bucs haven’t started 5-0 ATS on the road since 2012
  Bucs are now 6-1 ATS on the road
• Bowles in his career as a head coach is horrible straight up as a dog, 15-42 SU and 13-40 in last five seasons.
  2023: 3-6 SU
  2022: 0-4 SU
  2018: 3-10 SU
  2017: 4-11 SU
  2016: 3-9 SU
• Todd Bowles is one of the worst coaches in the NFL as an underdog.
  15-42 SU, 24-30-3 ATS as an underdog (25-16 SU as a favorite)
• Road trips haven’t boded well for Baker. He’s 5-10 ATS playing on the road after a road game in his previous start. In the last 20 years, he’s the worst ATS in this spot of 222 QBs.
• Bucs and Baker upset the Falcons last week. Can they win again? Baker has played 15 career games off of a SU win as an underdog, his teams are 4-11 SU and 6-9 ATS in their next game after pulling the upset.
• Baker is 6-9 ATS last three seasons off SU win. He doesn’t do the streak thing.
• Tough to play after a party city. Last decade, teams to play on road, coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 61-98-6 ATS (38.4%).
  Week 15: MIN, DEN, TB, HOU
• Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season (Game 9 or later), are 124-152-6 ATS (44.9%) since 2015.
  Week 15: TB, ARI, SEA

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Packers

• Much has been made about the Packers' success without Aaron Rodgers this year. Here is a comparison to other teams after star QBs left and how they did the year after losing a quarterback on the top-10 most wins all-time list. Of the 11 QBs, 10 won at least six games the next year. The one who didn’t was Colts in 2011 who went 2-14 SU, but they went 11-5 SU the following year with Andrew Luck.

Most QB Wins All-Time
1. Tom Brady -> 2020 NE, 7-9 SU
2. Brett Favre -> 2008 GB, 6-10 SU
3. Peyton Manning -> 2011 IND, 2-14 SU
4. Drew Brees -> 2021 NO, 9-8 SU
5. Ben Roethlisberger -> 2022 PIT, 9-8 SU
6. John Elway -> 1999 DEN, 6-10 SU
7. Aaron Rodgers -> 2023 GB, 6-7 SU
8. Dan Marino -> 2000 MIA, 11-5 SU
9. Philip Rivers -> 2020 SD, 7-9 SU
10. Matt Ryan -> 2022 ATL, 7-10 SU
10. Fran Tarkenton -> 1979 MIN, 7-9 SU

• LaFleur is 49-35 ATS in his career as Packers coach.
• LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 19-10 ATS as a ‘dog — 12-5 with Rodgers and 7-5 with Jordan Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 30-25 ATS.
• LaFleur is now 16-1 SU, 10-7 ATS in December games.
  LaFleur is 39-28 SU in all other months. In January, LaFleur is just 5-5 SU.
• Love is 4-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU and 2-4 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU
• Fewest games favored in season for Packers since 1990
  2 – 2023 (1-1 ATS)
  2 – 1991 (0-2 ATS)
  3 – 1992 (2-1 ATS)
  5 – 2006 (2-3 ATS)
  5 – 2005 (1-3-1 ATS)
  6 – 1990 (2-4 ATS)
  6 – 2017 (4-2 ATS)
• Jordan Love has been streaky as an NFL QB.
  Started 4-0 ATS, 4-6 ATS since.
  Love has closed as a favorite twice in his 14-start career (1-1 SU/ATS).
• Packers were plus money (+165) to make the playoffs in the preseason for the first time since 2009 (+100) – they made the playoffs that season.
  Packers are now +105 to make the playoffs after being -215 last week. GB has a 6-7 SU record.
• The Packers went 5-6 SU as favorites under LaFleur last season. They are 1-1 SU this year. Between 2019-21, Packers were 33-9 SU as a favorite under LaFleur.
• Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season, 152-124-6 ATS (55.1%) since 2015 and 11-6 ATS this season.
  Week 15: GB, SF

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Texans at Titans | Sunday, Dec. 17

1:00pm ET | CBS

TEN -3.5 | 38

Texans

• The Last rookie head coach and quarterback duo to make it to the playoffs? Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck with Colts in 2012.
• CJ Stroud ranks third in yards per game at 279. Rookies to lead the NFL in passing yards per game in NFL History – minimum 75% of team games played – Davey O’Brien – 120.4 in 1939 and Sammy Baugh – 102.5 in 1937
• Stroud is the first NFL quarterback from Ohio State to eclipse 3,000 passing yards in a season (3,631). The previous high was Mike Tomczak with 2,767 yards (16 games) in 1996.
• Stroud vs. AFC South: 1-2 SU/ATS. Beat Jaguars in Jacksonville as 7.5-pt dogs and lost to the Colts at home as a 1-point favorite. Then lost to Jags in HOU as 1-point dogs.
• Davis Mills career SU/ATS: 5-20-1 SU, 14-12 ATS
  On the road: 4-9 SU, 7-6 ATS | vs. AFC South opponents overall: 4-4-1 SU, 6-3 ATS
• Texans are up to seven wins this season, that is their most in a year in the last four seasons.
  2023: 7-6 SU | 2020-22: 11-38-1 SU
• Stroud has made 13 starts in his NFL career. He’s 5-2 ATS as an underdog and 1-5 ATS as a favorite.
  He’s excelled in the first half, going 8-5 1H ATS this season.
  In the 1H, Stroud is 6-1 ATS as a dog, 2-4 ATS as a favorite
• Stroud in rhythm. Texans don’t play in primetime this season – 16 of 17 games all starting at 1 p.m. ET, including remainder of games prior to Week 18.
• "Bet dogs in low total games" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 180-124-7 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 & 43-30-3 ATS this season.
  Week 15: LAC, MIN, CAR, NYG, HOU, NYJ, CHI, NE
• Tough to play after a party city. Last decade, teams to play on road, coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 61-98-6 ATS (38.4%).
  Week 15: MIN, DEN, TB, HOU
• Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 88-62-1 ATS (59%) since 2020.
  Week 15: IND, CAR, WAS, HOU, PHI
• Good teams who score fewer than 14 points are good bets the following week. Teams over .500 SU and off scoring fewer than 14 points are 104-79-6 ATS (56.8%) last ten years.
  Week 15: DET, HOU, PHI
• Bet “small, bad, road dogs” == Teams to open as a dog of 7 points or less road/neutral, who won five games or less the previous year, are 358-253-10 ATS (58.6%) last 20 years.
  Week 15: DEN, HOU, CHI

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Titans

• Will Levis career. 2-4 SU/ATS
  Home: 2-1 SU/ATS | Road: 0-3 SU/ATS
  vs. AFC South: 0-2 SU/ATS
• Levis is 1-6 straight up in the second half and against the second half spread in his seven starts.
• Of 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this season, the Titans' rookie quarterback has a comp % of 60.5%, which is 41st of those 44 QBs
• Teams coming off a SU win as an underdog on MNF are 82-38 SU (68.3%) when listed as the favorite in their next game.
  Week 15: TEN
• Titans have now gone 31 straight games without scoring 30 points.
  Longest active streak in the NFL and longest streak in franchise history
  NYG streak of 43 straight games was last one broken this high in 2022.
• Vrabel is 38-29 SU in Sept, Oct & Nov. in his career (16-16 SU in Dec. on).
• Against divisional opponents, Vrabel is 19-14 SU, 17-16 ATS.
• In close spread games, Mike Vrabel has performed well. Spread of 3 or less: 21-18 SU, 19-18-2 ATS, including 4-3 ATS in that spot this season.
• Mike Vrabel has coached 16 games in his NFL career on short rest, his teams are 11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS, including 6-3 SU as a dog on short rest.
• Since 2015, teams who were underdogs of 13 or more points are 62-39-1 1H ATS in their next game
  Week 15: TEN, SEA
• Vrabel as a favorite: 29-17 SU, 20-25-1 ATS
  Recently: Since 2021, Vrabel is 11-8 SU and 9-10 ATS as a favorite
  Recently vs. AFC South: Since 2021, Vrabel is 8-7 SU/ATS. Dating back to last year the Titans have lost 6 straight divisional games

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Giants at Saints | Sunday, Dec. 17

1:00pm ET | FOX

NO -5.5 | 39.5

Giants

• The Giants are 9-4 to the under this season – one of 10 teams with nine or more unders this year.
• Giants are 43-20-2 to the under since 2020 – by far the best mark to the under in the NFL
• Daboll led the Giants to an impressive 11-3 ATS record as an underdog in Year 1, going 7-6 straight-up (SU) in those spots.
  2023 hasn’t been as kind. Giants are 4-8 SU and 5-6-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
• QB comparison – min. 100 plays as QB for ranks (of 44 QBs).
  Taylor: 19th EPA/play, comp% second, 21st avg. depth per target
  Jones: 29th EPA/play, comp% 11th, 37th avg. depth per target
  Devito: 34th EPA/play, comp% 20th, 38th avg. depth per target
• DeVito is 3-1 SU with a $100 ML bettor up $586, making him the second-most profitable quarterback on the moneyline for Giants in the last 20 years, behind only Eli Manning (+$923).
• Daboll career with Giants.
  Home: 9-5-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 10-7 ATS
  Favorite: 3-3 ATS | Underdog: 16-9-1 ATS
• Giants are 18-15 ATS on the road last four years, but its been very up and down
  2023: 2-5 ATS | 2022: 7-2 ATS | 2021: 3-6 ATS | 2020: 6-2 ATS
• Since 2017, Giants are 9-40 SU in games played after the 1p ET window – least profitable team on the ML in the NFL.
  Giants are 28-35-1 SU playing at 1p ET or earlier in that span
• Giants are 5-8 SU and had a win total of 7.5 entering the year.
  Giants went over win total last year for first time since 2016. They’ve gone under in five of past six years – since 2011, 9-2-1 to the under.
  Haven’t gone over win total consecutive years since 2007-08
• "Bet dogs in low total games" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 180-124-7 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 & 43-30-3 ATS this season.
  Week 15: LAC, MIN, CAR, NYG, HOU, NYJ, CHI, NE
• Teams playing on road on short rest, after a SU win in their previous game as an underdog are 30-69 SU last 20 years.
  Week 15: DEN, NYG
• Underdogs on road on short rest, after a SU win in their previous game as an underdog are 43-70-4 ATS last 20 years.
  Week 15: DEN, NYG

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Saints

• The Saints have faced Bryce Young (twice), CJ Stroud, Tyson Bagent and Tommy DeVito. This week will be their fifth game vs. a rookie QB this season
  The Falcons and Saints are set to play against a starting rookie QB for fifth time this season. That would tie the most games against rookie QBs since the merger
• With a loss Sunday, the Saints will go under their preseason win total of 9.5
  Dennis Allen-coached teams are 0-4 toward the over on their preseason win total.
• Panthers were the medicine the Saints needed, breaking a four-game ATS losing streak.
  Saints ATS recently: 4-10-1 in last 15 dating back to 2022
  Saints are 1-5 ATS at home this season. Only Washington has zero ATS wins at home this season (0-5-1 ATS)
• Saints are 6-15 ATS at home since 2021, second-worst record in the NFL (Falcons)
• Road Warriors. Here are the Saints ML record over the past few seasons, home vs. road.
  Last three: Home: 9-12 SU | Road: 12-12 SU
  Last five: Home: 22-18 SU | Road: 25-15 SU
• Allen-coached teams are just 14-21-1 ATS vs. teams who are under .500 SU on the season and just 4-13-1 ATS vs. teams who are over .500 SU on the season. Allen is under .500 ATS vs. teams who are over .500 SU in all five of his seasons as a head coach.
• In his career, Dennis Allen is 21-45 SU. His 31.8% win percentage is eighth-worst among all head coaches in the Wild Card era.
• Dennis Allen is a bit better with some prep.
  Short rest: 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS
  Normal rest: 11-28 SU, 13-26 ATS
  Extended rest + Week 1: 9-9 SU, 9-7-2 ATS
  He’s 12-36 SU, 15-33 ATS on short or normal rest as a head coach
• Allen is 24-40-2 ATS in his career as a coach.
  Allen’s 24-40-2 ATS mark is 3rd-worst for any coach last 20 years:

1. Jon Gruden, 148. Mike Shanahan, 147. Dennis Allen

• In games where Carr is a favorite or a small underdog, his teams have struggled.
  As favorite or underdog of 3 points or less: 37-52-3 ATS
  Dog of more than 3 points: 34-30 ATS
• Derek Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime now for the 5th time in his career this year, and is still struggling to cover the spread. 26-34-2 ATS in those previous four seasons and 3-9-1 ATS in 2023 with Saints.
  15: 8-8 ATS, 17: 5-8-2 ATS, 18: 6-10 ATS, 22: 7-8 ATS, 23: 3-9-1 ATS
• Saints were listed as home underdogs against the Lions, a better spot for Derek Carr.
  Favorite: 19-37-2 ATS (worst of all QBs last 20 years)
  Underdog: 52-45-1 ATS
• Carr was 18-29-1 ATS as a favorite with the Raiders, with a $100 bettor down $1,182. Now with the Saints he is 2-8-1 ATS as a favorite.
  Carr hasn’t had a year above .500 ATS as a favorite since 2016
• Carr is 22-36-2 ATS on the road/neutral since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (123 of 123 QBs). He’s 23-25-1 ATS at home in that span.
• Superdome isn’t scary anymore. Saints are 9-12 SU at home last three seasons – only four teams have fewer SU wins than that (IND, HOU, ARI, CHI).
• Carr is facing a defense allowing 21 PPG or more on the season with the Giants – he is 34-57-3 ATS in games vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or more. Of the 262 QBs in Bet Labs database over the last 20 years, Carr is the least profitable ATS in this spot.
• Derek Carr covers vs. good defenses and tends to lose ATS vs. bad defenses. Based on how many PPG opposing defenses give up against Carr:
  Fewer than 21 PPG: 31-21 ATS
  21 PPG or more: 34-57-3 ATS
• Carr is 9-26-2 ATS when favored by 3 points or more, including 2-14-1 ATS in his last 17 games in this spot. Since 2021, he’s 2-11-1 ATS in this spot.
• Saints were -2.5 on lookahead. Now -6. Derek Carr is 18-28-2 ATS (39%) when line moves in his direction (ex. -3 to -4) since 2017, he ranks 103rd of 105 QBs ATS and is 3-5-1 ATS in this spot with Saints.

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Jets at Dolphins | Sunday, Dec. 17

1:00pm ET | CBS

MIA -8 | 37

Jets

• Jets are double-digit dog vs. Dolphins in division. In November or earlier, double-digit division dogs are 85-56-6 ATS (60.3%) last 20 years. In December and January, they are 65-68-3 ATS (48.9%).
• Fade bad teams off a win. Teams to lose at least four in a row straight up and then break the streak are 79-138-1 SU (36.4%) in their next game in the last 20 years, including 0-6 SU this season and 3-15 SU last two seasons.
  Week 15: NYJ, NE
• The Jets offensive struggles have been widely known this year, but last week against the Texans they saw a bit of a resurgence.
  Last week: Wilson went 27-of-36, 301 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs. 117.9 QBR
  Jets as a team have 16 TD in 13 games, including 13 offensive TD.
• Jets are 43-for-175 on third downs (24.6%). Through 13 games, that is T-3rd-worst 3D% in the Wild Card era.
• Zach Wilson has 982 pass attempts in his career and 23 TD passes (2.3% TD pass pct).
  No QB in the Super Bowl era has thrown that many pass attempts with that low a TD pass pct. Lowest all-time minimum 500 attempts? Kenny Pickett at 1.8%.
• Jets have four wins with Zach Wilson as the starting QB this season; three of those four wins required a fourth-quarter comeback from Wilson and the Jets.
  Zach Wilson trails only Russell Wilson for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in the NFL this season.
• Where have all the INT gone?
  Zach Wilson is 12th of 30 NFL QBs in INT% this season (percentage of times intercepted when attempting a pass)
  Wilson has started six games this year where he hasn’t thrown an INT. He had just 11 such games in his first two seasons.
• Wilson is coming off his second career game with two pass TD and zero INT (Both in 2023)
• Fewest SU wins, teams with win total of 8.5 or more: Jets/Chargers with 5
• Jets have struggled vs. AFC East. They are 6-28 SU, 11-23 ATS vs. their own division since 2018 – the least profitable team both SU and ATS in the NFL.
• In 16 division games, Saleh is 3-13 SU, 6-10 ATS. Jets are 3-6 SU at home and 0-7 SU on the road vs. AFC East.
• Jets are historically a struggling road team. They are 24-40-4 ATS on the road since 2015, under .500 ATS on the road in seven of the last eight years.
• Since 2015, Jets are 24-40-4 ATS (37.5%) on the road, worst in the NFL.
  Jets’ 24 ATS road wins since 2015 are six fewer than any team (CLE, 30)
  A $100 bettor is down $1,787, failing to cover by 3 points per game. When the Jets opponent is above .500? 7-14-2 ATS (33.3%).
• Saleh and the Jets have struggled to win against good offensive teams.
  20 PPG or higher: 9-21 SU
  19.9 PPG or less: 6-8 SU
• With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets start a “backup QB” for the rest of the season. Jets have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB. They are 7-32 SU, 14-24-1 ATS over the last decade when starting a backup QB.
• Jets odds to make the playoffs are off the board right now. The Jets haven’t made playoffs in 12 seasons – longest drought in NFL.

Longest Active Playoff Drought Four Major Sports
12 – Jets
12 – Sabres

• Are the Jets the biggest flop ever? The Jets were 150-1 to win it all entering last season. They entered this year at 18-1. That big of a jump into inside 20-1 odds year-to-year has only been done three other times.
  All four teams are a combined 28-33 SU, 25-34-3 ATS

Biggest SB Moves Year-to-Year to Inside 20-1 Odds Since Merger
1979 to 1980 WAS 300-1 to 8-1 (+29,200). 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, Miss
1999 to 2000 STL 150-1 to 3-1 (+14,700). 10-6 SU, 6-10-1 ATS, L WC
1983 to 1984 NO 150-1 to 8-1 (+14,200). 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, Miss
2022 to 2023 NYJ 150-1 to 18-1 (+13,200). 5-8 SU, 5-7-1 ATS

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Dolphins

• Dolphins can go over their preseason win total with a win this week.
  It was their highest preseason win total since 2004.
• Since 2021, the Dolphins are 4-11 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 18-8 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
  The Dolphins haven't beaten a team with a winning record since they beat the Bills in Week 3 of last season (9/25/22) – Only one team doesn't have a SU win over a team with a winning record in this span == Dolphins: 0-7 SU
• Dolphins offense is no longer the NFL leader in YPP after starting at a historical pace — 49ers lead by a small margin now.
  Highest YPP thru 13 games in SB era:
  2000 Rams: 6.97, 2004 Colts: 6.91, 2018 Chiefs: 6.86, 2023 49ers: 6.74, 2023 Dolphins: 6.73
  Usually teams with early year high power offenses come back to reality. Teams that average 6+ YPP in November or later are 29-42-2 ATS as a favorite in the last 20 years.
• The Dolphins are still averaging 31.6 PPG this season, second best in the NFL, entering Week 15 behind Cowboys (32.4).
• Teams to average 30 PPG or more in December or later are 86-118-3 ATS (42.2%) last 20 years.
  Week 15: MIA, DAL
• Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 16-7 ATS at home and 11-12-1 ATS away from home in his career.
  Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015
  Miami is 37-22-3 ATS since 2016 at home – best home team ATS in that span
• Tua by time zone: 24-11-1 ATS in EST | 3-6 ATS all other time zones
• Dolphins have played three games this year after their defense allowed 28 points or more in previous game, they are 3-0 SU/ATS.
• Tyreek Hill watch…
  Tyreek has 1,542 receiving yards through 13 games – most for any player since Calvin Johnson in 2012 (1,546). Hill is 458 receiving yards shy of 2,000 and 423 yards shy of breaking the single-season record (1,964) by Calvin Johnson in 2012.
  Through 13 games last year, Tyreek had 1,460 receiving yards (that season is ninth-most thru 13 games all-time).
  Tyreek was +950 to lead NFL in receiving yards entering this year (third-top choice).
  He is now
• When Tua faces an opposing offense averaging 21 PPG or less, he is 15-6 SU, including 14-2 SU in his last 16 in this spot.
• Tua Tagovailoa is 34-1 straight up as a starter in his college & pro career when favored by more than 6 pts.
  11-1 SU with Dolphins
  23-0 SU at Alabama
• Tua off a SU loss: 6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS
  Off a SU loss at home: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS (0-4 SU, 1-2-1 ATS road/neutral)
• Tua is 10-5 SU, 10-4-1 ATS vs. AFC East in his career. Over the last 20 years, Tua is the second-most profitable QB ATS vs. AFC East opponents behind Tom Brady at No. 1.
  Tua vs. Jets: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS
  Tua vs. Patriots: 6-0 ATS | vs. Jets & Bills: 4-4-1 ATS
• Dolphins are still the favorites to win AFC East at -400, Miami hasn’t been a preseason favorite to win AFC East since 2003 and they haven’t been favored at all to win the AFC East since winning the division back in 2008.
  Haven’t won AFC East in 14 seasons (fifth-longest streak in NFL active)
• Teams to see line move 3 points or more away from them (ex. -3 to -6) are 36-42-2 ATS this season – 75-102-3 ATS (42.4%) since start of last year & 132-166-4 ATS (44%) since 2020
  Week 15: LV, DET, IND, BAL, NO, MIA, SF, LAR, KC
• Teams off a SU loss as a double-digit favorite are 51-38-3 ATS (57.3%) in their next game, including 32-21-1 ATS as a favorite.
  Week 15: MIA

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Chiefs at Patriots | Sunday, Dec. 17

1:00pm ET | FOX

KC -8.5 | 38.5

Chiefs

• Good third down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 320-256-19 ATS (55.6%) last 20 years.
  Week 15: SF, KC, PHI
• Chiefs go under their preseason win total with a loss Sunday.
  Chiefs are 9-1 to their win total over in the last 10 years.
  Andy Reid win total results with KC/PHI: 9-1 over w/ KC | 9-4-1 over w/ PHI (18-5-1 overall to over)
• Chiefs defense in Mahomes’ career (EPA/play)
  2023: 11th | 2022: 15th | 2021: 23rd | 2020: 19th | 2019: 18th | 2018: 28th
• One of two teams this season still favored in every game: KC, SF
• When the Chiefs defense allows more than 20 points this season, KC is 0-5 SU/ATS, against the Lions, Broncos, Eagles, Packers and Bills. KC is 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS when their defense allows 20 points or less.
• Chiefs second half unders have been the play…
  Second half unders are 12-1 in KC games this year
  Fourth quarter unders are 12-1 in KC games this year
• Last year, Mahomes played two games off a SU loss where KC scored 20 points or less. K.C. went 2-0 SU/ATS, average 42.5 PPG.
• Mahomes has had 32 passes dropped so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, seventh-most in the NFL.
• Mahomes starts by point spread
  Favorite: 97 (48-48-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
  Home: 26-28-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 30-21-1 ATS
  1 p.m. ET: 14-16-1 ATS | After 1p slate: 41-33-1 ATS
  -10 or higher: 25 (11-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 82 (45-36-1 ATS)
  -3 or less/or dog: 28 (20-8-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 78 (36-41-1 ATS)
• Chiefs are 28-18 ATS after Mahomes throws an INT in his last game, 6-3 ATS this season.
• Road/neutral, Mahomes is 40-12 SU, 30-21-1 ATS in his career.
  He’s 29-8 SU as a road/neutral favorite of 3 points or more.
• Mahomes in his career is 21-3 SU on the road/neutral as a favorite of over 5 points.
  His only losses came against the Packers and Broncos this season and the Titans in 2019
  As a road/neutral favorite of over a field goal he is 26-7 SU.
• Mahomes as a double-digit favorite: 23-2 SU, 11-13-1 ATS
  Only losses to: Derek Carr and Jacoby Brissett
• Mahomes is 13-1 SU when playing road/neutral after a SU loss in his previous game.
  After a loss in his career, Mahomes is 17-4 SU, 12-9 ATS
• Mahomes is 12-7 ATS when the Chiefs are not listed as the public side.
• Mahomes is just 9-15 ATS after a SU win dating back to 2022, the least profitable QB in the NFL
  Mahomes after a SU loss: 17-4 SU, 12-9 ATS
• In his career, Mahomes is 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS for the Chiefs the game after scoring less than 20 pts.
• Mahomes career based on rest
  6 days or less: 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS
  7 days: 43-14 SU, 29-27-1 ATS
  8+ days: 24-7 SU, 15-15-1 ATS
• Mahomes is 31-4 SU in November and December in last 35 games. He is 37-8 SU in Nov/Dec in his career (49-11 SU in Nov, Dec & Jan).
• Chiefs are 4-9 against the fourth quarter spread this season and 18-35 4Q ATS the last three seasons.
• Rashee Rice leads the Chiefs in ATTD profit this season at +9 units. Justin Watson led KC in ATTD profit last year (+15U).
• Chiefs are -1600 to win the AFC West right now. Chiefs have won the AFC West seven consecutive years – longest active division streak across four major sports. The longest run of division titles belongs to the New England Patriots with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019. Chiefs are currently -1600 to win the AFC West again.

Longest NFL Division Title Streak — NFL History
11 – 2009-19 NE
7 – 2016-23 KC
7 – 1973-79 STL

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Patriots

• Belichick career vs. Mahomes:
  Belichick is 1-3 ATS and 2-2 SU against Mahomes
  Belichick vs. Andy Reid:
  Belichick is 7-4 SU and 4-7 ATS vs Reid
  3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS on Chiefs
• Chiefs are currently big favorites in New England in Week 14 — largest home dog for Pats since 2001 — Tom Brady's first start.

Largest Home Underdog – Patriots w/ Bill Belichick
+11.5: 2001 vs. IND (W, 44-13) – Peyton Manning
+8.5: 2001 vs. STL (L, 24-17) – Kurt Warner
+7.5: 2023 vs. BUF (W, 29-25) – Josh Allen
+7: 2020 vs. BUF (L, 38-9) – Josh Allen
+7: 2020 vs. BAL (W, 23-17) – Lamar Jackson

• The Patriots haven’t closed above a 7.5 pt underdog at home since November 18, 2001 as an 8.5 pt underdog at home against the Greatest Show on Turf Rams with Kurt Warner.
• Belichick as home dog w/ Patriots: 10-14 SU, 13-11 ATS. Belichick is 1-8 SU in his last nine games as a home dog dating back to 2021.
  He’s 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS as a home dog with Mac Jones
  He’s 9-7 SU, 11-5 ATS as a home dog with all other QBs
• Since 2021, Patriots are 9-14 SU at home. Between 2000 and 2020, NE was 151-37 SU (80.3%) at home.
• The Patriots team total under is 11-2 this season – Tied for the best record to the under in the NFL with Raiders.
• Patriots are 3-10 ATS this season — Tied for the second-worst record in the NFL (Cardinals).
  Patriots have started 3-10 ATS twice in their history prior to this: 1969 and 1981
• Patriots are 5-15 SU, 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
  Patriots have lost five straight ATS. First time the Patriots had lost five straight ATS within the same season since losing six straight at the end of the 2007-08 Super Bowl campaign.
• Patriots have struggled vs. the best and done well against some of the bad teams.
  Since 2019, Patriots are 17-23 SU, 15-23-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, second-worst ATS mark in the NFL ahead of the Bears
  Since 2019, they are 19-10 SU, 16-13 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, including 10-10 ATS since 2020.
  In that same span, they are 10-23-1 ATS vs. teams who made playoffs previous season, second-worst mark in the NFL (CHI). When they face a team that didn’t make the playoffs, they are 25-21-1 ATS in that span.
• Since 2020, Patriots are 14-17-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
• Between 2016-22, Patriots were 32-13 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, they are 0-5 ATS this season (lost six straight ATS).
• Patriots are the first team since 1938 to lose three straight games, allowing 10 or fewer points in each one (1938 Chicago Cardinals)
• "Bet dogs in low total games" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 180-124-7 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 & 43-30-3 ATS this season.
  Week 15: LAC, MIN, CAR, NYG, HOU, NYJ, CHI, NE

Bill Belichick

• Since Brady left, Belichick & NE are 28-36 SU, 27-36-1 ATS since 2020. Belichick as head coach without Tom Brady at QB: 46-55 SU w/ NE, 37-45 SU w/ CLE, for a combined 83-100 SU.
• Since 2021, Belichick is 5-19 SU as an underdog (16-8 SU as a favorite). Between 2003-15, he was 25-22 SU as an underdog.
• In the last 20 years, Belichick is 22-14-2 ATS in the regular season on at least 10 days to prepare, third-best of 139 coaches behind just Mike McCarthy and Mike Vrabel.
• Belichick ATS last 20 years by over/under
  Under 40: 37-15-1 ATS (69.8%)
  Under 42: 56-32-2 ATS (62.2%)
  Under 45: 97-67-5 ATS (57.4%)
  45+: 110-90-5 ATS (55%)
• Teams with a win pct of 25% or less are 114-85-3 ATS (57.3%) as a home dog of 7 points or more in the last 20 years.
  Week 15: ARI, NE
• Fade bad teams off a win. Teams to lose at least four in a row SU and then break the streak are 79-138-1 SU (36.4%) in their next game in the last 20 years, including 0-6 SU this season and 3-15 SU last two seasons.
  Week 15: NYJ, NE

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49ers at Cardinals | Sunday, Dec. 17

4:05pm ET | CBS

SF -12.5 | 48.5

49ers

• Dolphins offense is no longer the NFL leader in YPP after starting at a historical pace. 49ers lead by a small margin now.
  Highest YPP thru 13 games in SB era:
  2000 Rams: 6.97, 2004 Colts: 6.91, 2018 Chiefs: 6.86, 2023 49ers: 6.74, 2023 Dolphins: 6.73
  Usually teams with early year high power offenses come back to reality. Teams who average 6+ YPP in November or later are 29-42-2 ATS as a favorite in the last 20 years.
• When their stars are healthy. When Deebo Samuel and CMC are starting, 49ers are 18-2 SU, 14-6 ATS
• Biggest SF road favorite since 2012 when they were 12.5 point favorites at St. Louis
  2023 vs Raiders: -10 (W, 37-34)
  2019 vs Cardinals: -10.5 (W, 28-25)
  2019 vs Redskins/Commanders: -10 (W, 9-0)
  2012 vs Rams: -12.5 (W, 34-27)
• One of two teams this season still favored in every game: KC, SF
• Purdy is 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS at home, just 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS on road.
• In games Christian McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 22-4 SU, 17-9 ATS. In those 26 games, McCaffrey has 30 total TDs.
• Most profitable 49ers QB ATS last 20 years: Garoppolo 35-25-1 ATS, Shaun Hill 12-4 ATS, Purdy 13-8 ATS
• 49ers are 32-21 ATS last three seasons – fourth-most profitable team in NFL (DAL, DET, CIN, SF)
• Under Kyle Shanahan, the San Francisco 49ers are 0-37 when trailing by 8 or more points in the fourth quarter.
• Kyle Shanahan is 1-31 when trailing by 3+ points entering the fourth quarter.
• The 49ers went 7-0 SU/ATS vs. NFC West last season. They are 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS this year.
  San Francisco has won eleven straight games SU vs. NFC West.
• Purdy in October or later at Iowa State and with 49ers: 25-12 SU at Iowa St and 14-4 SU with the 49ers (39-16 SU)
• Kyle Shanahan vs NFC West
  As Favorite: 10-11-1 ATS
  As Underdog: 13-7 ATS
• After a Shanahan, 49ers team faces an NFC West opponent, San Francisco is 25-11-1 ATS in their next game.
• The 49ers went 7-0 SU/ATS vs. NFC West last season. This year, they are 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS vs. NFC West.
  San Francisco has won 11 straight games SU vs. NFC West.
  The record for SU wins vs. own division is 16 by 2012-15 IND and 1972-73 MIA.
  The SF franchise record is 12 back in 1997-98
• 49ers vs. the Cardinals…
  Shanahan: 6-7 SU, 5-7-1 ATS
  Purdy: 2-0 SU/ATS
• Biggest Spreads for Kyle Shanahan with 49ers
  -15, 2023 vs SEA (W, 28-16)
  -14.5, 2022 vs ARI (W, 38-13)
  -14, 2023 vs. ARI
  -14, 2023 vs. NYG (W, 23-7)
• Teams to see line move 3 points or more away from them (ex. -3 to -6) are 36-42-2 ATS this season – 75-102-3 ATS (42.4%) since start of last year & 132-166-4 ATS (44%) since 2020
  Week 15: LV, DET, IND, BAL, NO, MIA, SF, LAR, KC
• Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season, 152-124-6 ATS (55.1%) since 2015 and 11-6 ATS this season.
  Week 15: GB, SF
• Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season (game 9 on), are 124-152-6 ATS (44.9%) since 2015.
  Week 15: TB, ARI, SEA
• Good 3rd down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 320-256-19 ATS (55.6%) last 20 years.
  Week 15: SF, KC, PHI

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Cardinals

• The Cardinals are one of two teams to be listed as underdogs in all of their games so far this season – with the Panthers.
• Welcome back, Kyler Murray. Cardinals went the first nine games of the season without being a public side once. Three of the first four weeks with Murray, the public had bought into Arizona and going 3-0 ATS as the public side.
• How does Murray do with rest?
  Off extended rest: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS
  Off bye: 1-3 SU/ATS
• Cardinals since 3-0 ATS start: 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS
• Cardinals are double-digit dog vs. 49ers in division. In November or earlier, double-digit division dogs are 85-56-6 ATS (60.3%) last 20 years. In December and January, they are 65-68-3 ATS (48.9%).
• Largest Kyler Underdog: Has been a double-digit dog four times in his career, all coming in his rookie season – 2019. 0-4 SU, 2-1-1 ATS.
  +10 @ 49ers: (L, 36-36)
  +10.5 vs 49ers: (L, 25-28) <- Kyler largest home dog
  +12.5 @ Saints: (L, 31-9)
  +13 @ Ravens (L, 23-17)
• Cardinals offense has been a rollercoaster this season. From Dobbs to Tune now to Kyler, lets see if they can see some consistency.
  First three games: 11th offensive EPA/play, 15th off. success rate
  Next six games: 31st offensive EPA/play, 30th in off. success rate
  Week 10 on: 17th offensive EPA/play, 18th off. success rate
• Cardinals have struggled vs. NFC West recently. They are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games in the spot. Cardinals haven’t won or covered a home game vs. NFC West since October 2021
• Since Murray arrived in Arizona, he is 27-34-1 SU. All other QBs are 4-14 SU.
• Cardinals defense stinks.
  Pressure rate: 17.5% (30th)
  Opp. first downs: 288 (worst)
  EPA/play on D: 31st
  Opp. success rate: 32nd
• Kyler Murray has had success as an underdog and on the road and struggled as a favorite and at home.
  Dog: 23-13-2 ATS | Fav: 9-15 ATS
  Road: 19-9-2 ATS | Home: 13-19 ATS
• Here is how Kyler has performed based on the strength of the opponent.
  Vs. above .500 SU teams: 11-15-2 ATS
  Vs. below .500 SU teams: 16-10 ATS
• Teams with a win pct of 25% or less are 114-85-3 ATS (57.3%) as a home dog of 7 points or more in the last 20 years.
  Week 15: ARI, NE

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Commanders at Rams | Sunday, Dec. 17

4:05pm ET | CBS

LAR -6.5 | 49.5

Commanders

• Ron Rivera has been an NFL head coach for 12 seasons. His teams have finished .500 or worse in nine of those 12 seasons.
• Sam Howell is 1st in the NFL in completions this season, second in passing yards (Stroud) 12th in pass TDs, fifth in first down completions – all while taking the most sacks of any QB in the NFL.
• Sam Howell has been sacked 58 times so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL.The NFL record for sacks taken in a season is 76, set by David Carr for the Texans in 2002, their first year in the NFL.

Most Times Sacked as QB — Through 13 Games
68 — David Carr, 2002
61 — David Carr, 2005
58 — Sam Howell, 2023

Most Turnovers This Season
T-1. Josh Dobbs 17
T-1. Josh Allen 17
3. Sam Howell 16

• Howell is 5-2 ATS in his career on the road. Six of those seven games have been one-score games.
  Howell is 1-5-1 ATS at home
  Best Washington QB ATS on road last 20 years: 1. Rex Grossman 6-2 ATS, 2. Howell 5-2 ATS, 3. Tim Hasselbeck 3-0 ATS
• Sam Howell has thrown a pick-6 in three straight games.
  That is the second-longest streak since the merger. The only QB to throw a pick-6 in four straight games was Matt Schaub in 2013 for the Texans.
  Last QB to throw one in three straight was Stafford in 2021 and Brady in 2020.
• Ron Rivera’s team is on a road trip, going to PST this week. The 10th time in Rivera’s career he will coach in PST as the road team during the regular season. His teams are 5-5 SU and 6-3-1 ATS.
• The dog is strong in Ron Rivera. He is 61-45-3 ATS as an underdog and 47-53-2 ATS as a favorite with Washington and Carolina.
  Most profitable coaches ATS as dog last 20 years: Tomlin, Payton, Harbaugh, Carroll Rivera.
• Rivera has had issues covering the first half spread. Washington is 4-9 1H ATS this season and 29-45-2 1H ATS since 2019 – second worst coach 1H ATS in NFL behind Tomlin.
• Ron Rivera likes the rah rah spot. 24-16-2 ATS as dog vs. own division, including 8-5-2 ATS w. Washington
  His 24-16-2 ATS mark as dog in division is ninth-best of all coaches last 20 years.
• Rivera is 61-45-3 ATS as an underdog in his coaching career, includes a 22-18-2 ATS mark as a home dog.
• Rivera off extended rest: 13-7-1 ATS as dog | 8-13 ATS as favorite
  Rivera off a bye: 6-9 SU, 5-10 ATS
• Howell on extended rest: 1-1 SU/ATS
• Under in Commanders home games is 20-11-1 since 2020 – fifth-best in the NFL behind the Giants (23-6-1), Rams (22-10), Chiefs (25-14) and Panthers (20-10)
  Unders for Commanders on the road: 16-15-1 since 2020
• In the last four seasons, Rivera-coached games are 36-26-2 to the under.
  In that span, Rivera is the eighth-best coach to under
• Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 88-62-1 ATS (59%) since 2020.
  Week 15: IND, CAR, WAS, HOU, PHI

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Rams

• Rams scored 31 points last week vs. Ravens.
  Rams after scoring 30 points under McVay: 32-14 SU, 22-22-2 ATS
  Since 2020: 11-8 SU, 8-11 ATS
• Matthew Stafford is 7-13-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season. Last five years, he is 24-40-2 2H ATS, the third-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert.
• Stafford can’t hold a lead.
  He’s 33-57-2 2H ATS after leading at half, including 9-20-1 2H ATS since 2019
  He’s 48-47-6 2H ATS when trailing at halftime.
• Stafford hasn’t finished above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 – he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, worst season since 2013. Stafford is 7-4-1 ATS this season.
• Stafford can’t beat good teams. He’s 33-67 SU and 38-60-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU – least profitable QB SU and ATS in this spot last 20 years.
  He is 10-10 SU and 8-12 ATS with Rams in this spot.
  When Stafford faces a team .500 SU or worse he is 58-37 SU and 48-43-4 ATS.
• When Stafford faces a “good” team at home (above .500 SU), he’s 20-34 ATS, including 9-18 ATS since 2017 and 4-8 ATS with the Rams.
  What about a bad team at home? 23-19 ATS, including 10-7 ATS since 2017 and 4-3 ATS with the Rams
• Stafford is 19-21-2 ATS with Rams – second-least profitable QB for franchise last 20 years (Bulger)
• Commanders are coming off a bye. How do Stafford/McVay do facing such teams?
  Stafford: 5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS | with Rams: 1-3 SU/ATS (all three SU losses this year and only SU win was the Super Bowl)
  McVay: 4-8 SU, 3-9 ATS. McVay’s 3-9 ATS mark is worst of 127 coaches last 20 years.
• Sean McVay’s teams tend to perform better early in the season vs. late.
  Sept/Oct: 36-17 SU
  Nov. on: 37-31 SU
• McVay is 26-17-1 ATS vs. NFC West & 36-38-3 ATS vs. all other divisions
  ARI: 12-2-1 ATS | SEA: 10-5 ATS (22-7-1 ATS combined)
  SF: 4-10 ATS
• This line opened Rams -1 and now lists them -6 and higher vs. Rams..
  McVay is one of a few coaches who usually win games when the line moves towards them (ex. -5 to -7).
  McVay is 46-19 SU and 35-27-3 ATS when the line moves towards his teams, including 22-7 SU at home.
• Teams to see line move 3 points or more away from them (ex. -3 to -6) are 36-42-2 ATS this season – 75-102-3 ATS (42.4%) since start of last year & 132-166-4 ATS (44%) since 2020
  Week 15: LV, DET, IND, BAL, NO, MIA, SF, LAR, KC

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Cowboys at Bills | Sunday, Dec. 17

4:25pm ET | FOX

BUF -2 | 49

Cowboys

• Dak Prescott is the sole favorite to win MVP for the first time in his career. He is the fifth different player to be sole favorite to win MVP this season (Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa).
  Dak is the seventh different QB to be listed as the favorite or co-favorite to win the MVP award already this season: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy
• Dak history vs. Josh Allen: 0-1 SU/ATS
• Dak vs. AFC: 16-13 SU, 16-12-1 ATS
  Since 2021: 8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS
• Cowboys' previous nine wins were over teams that are a combined 32-65, and none of the nine have a winning record. The 49ers and Eagles are the only winning teams the Cowboys have played this season, and the Cowboys lost both games.
  Until last week, the Cowboys dominated the Eagles at home and how have now beaten a team with a winning record.
• Ceedee Lamb is having an unreal season for the Cowboys.
  DAL records through 13 games: Second-most receptions (96) and third-most receiving yards (1,253)
• Dak is 7-0 ATS coming off a loss last two seasons and 8-10 ATS off a SU win.
  7-0 ATS mark is best in the NFL – QBs 3-0 ATS or better off loss last two years: Dak, Watson (4-0), Darnold (3-0)
• Dak does well vs. bad teams. He is 35-10 SU, 31-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 22-24 SU, 18-28 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
  The 31-13-2 ATS mark is second best in the last 20 years behind just Tom Brady.
  The 18-28 ATS mark is 259th of 263 QBs in the last 20 years.
• + Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson has 12 targets in the red zone this year, second most in the NFL behind Tyreek Hill (13).
• Can the Cowboys keep it going? Last three seasons…
  After a loss SU: 12-1 ATS
  After a win SU: 19-15 ATS
• If you bet on Dak to throw an interception in every game last season, you would be up 8.6U (most of any QB). Second was Aaron Rodgers at +7.2U.
  This season, you would be down 3.8 units betting a “yes” INT for Dak.
• Dak Prescott is 5-8-1 ATS in MT or PT time zones, but he’s 59-42-1 ATS in EST and CST.
• This line initially opened at Dallas -1 and has ballooned to -3 and higher at some shops. It has been profitable to follow the line with Dak Prescott. His teams are 22-10 ATS when the line moves against him (ex. -5 to -7) by two points or more. When the line moves at all against Dak between the opening and closing lines, his teams are 32-20-1 ATS in his career.
• Dak is 28-11 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,554), 36-39-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$513)
• Cowboys are coming off a big win. Under McCarthy, Dallas is 6-11 ATS after winning by 20 points or more – including 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games in this spot. Last two seasons, Dallas is 5-10 ATS after winning by double-digits.
• Dak as an underdog: 12-18 SU, 15-15 ATS
  When he gets 3.5 points or more he’s 9-7 ATS
• Teams to average 30 PPG or more in December or later are 86-118-3 ATS (42.2%) last 20 years.
  Week 15: MIA, DAL
• Cowboys are outscoring their opponents by 14.46 PPG this season — highest mark in the NFL — and are listed as underdogs vs. Bills.

Highest PPG Diff. — Underdogs in Dec. or later last 20 years
+15.4: 2019 Ravens (+2) vs. PIT — W, 28-10
+15.4: 2019 49ers (+5.5) at BAL — L, 20-17
+14.5: 2023 Cowboys (+1.5) at BUF
+14.5: 2005 Colts (+10) at SEA — L, 28-13

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Bills

• Bills can go under their preseason win total of 10.5 with a loss this week.
  Currently 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS
  When the Bills offense plays well, the defense tends to show up as well. 9-4 to the under this season
  Bills are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games, including 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games
  Bills 12-18-1 ATS mark since start of last year is tied fourth-worst in the NFL (TB)
• Josh Allen has thrown an INT in nine straight games – the first time he’s done that in the regular season in his career.
  The record for INT in the last 20 years is 12 done by five different players
  December 19-28, 2020: last time Josh Allen didn’t have a turnover in consecutive regular season starts.
  Regular Season:
  He has 74 INT since 2018, most in NFL
  He has 56 fumbles since 2018, most in NFL.
• Josh Allen has 63 wins in his career — 46 of those 63 wins have been by 7 points or more.
• Allen is 19-6 SU, 14-10-1 ATS vs. NFC in his career.
• As a home favorite, Allen, Bills are 32-8 SU. He’s 2nd in the NFL in ML profitability last five years. (Hurts)
• Bills are 16-3 SU in their last 19 home games, including 26-6 SU in their last 32 home games.
• Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career.
  Allen is 31-20-3 ATS on seven days rest (14th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot)
  He’s 8-9-1 ATS on short rest and 7-13-1 ATS on extended rest.
• The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 57-37-3 against the second half spread. Since 2005, he’s the 3rd-most profitable QB on the second half spread of 256 QBs.
• In toss up games, Josh Allen has performed well.
  Spread is 3 or less, Allen is 18-12 SU, 18-11-1 ATS.
  Spread is 4 or less, Allen is 24-14 SU, 22-15-1 ATS.
• Allen has played 28 games as an underdog in his career. 17-12-2 ATS.
  17-9-2 ATS as a dog in regular season
  0-3 ATS as a dog in the playoffs
• Josh Allen is 0-6 in overtime. The Bills as a franchise are now 3-12 SU (20%) in overtime since 2010, worst win pct of any team.

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Ravens at Jaguars | Sunday, Dec. 17

8:20pm ET | NBC

BAL -3.5 | 41

Ravens

• Ravens trailed the Rams 22-20 entering fourth quarter last game breaking their streak of 12 straight games to begin the season.
  Most Consecutive Games Entering 4Q With Lead To Begin Season
  16, 1998 MIN, 15-1
  13, 2011 GB, 15-1
  12, 2023 BAL, 8-3
  12, 1998 DEN, 14-2
  10, 1984 MIA, 14-2
• Ravens' blown leads …
  This Season: Blew leads in all three losses, including two double-digit leads
  Since 2022 Season: Six losses with a double-digit lead – Tied for the most in NFL with Raiders.
  6: BAL, LV, 5: CHI, LAC
  Since 2021 Season: Eight losses with a double-digit lead – most in NFL (CHI has seven)
• Holding onto leads have been an issue for Baltimore.
• Jackson is 14-6 SU (12-8 ATS) in night games. He’s won six straight night games SU and eight of his last nine games.
  Jackson at night: at home: 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS | on road: 6-4 SU/ATS
• Jackson in PT: 4-1 ATS | All other time zones: 37-36 ATS
  In PT/MT: 5-2 ATS
• Ravens have lost Mark Andrews for the foreseeable future.
  Ravens are 58-34 SU when Andrews gets at least one target in a game. Baltimore is actually 6-2 SU without Andrews since he joined the team.
• Ravens are 10-1-2 on the first quarter moneyline this season and they are 19-7-5 1Q ML last two seasons. Their 10 first quarter ML wins is most in NFL this year.
• Harbaugh is 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and 3 games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
• Harbaugh is 156-109-9 1H ATS with $100 bettor up $3,892, most of any coach in NFL since 2005.
  With Lamar Jackson & Joe Flacco, Harbaugh is 144-102-9 1H ATS.
• Over the past three seasons, Lamar Jackson is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog but 12-19 ATS as a favorite, including 5-16 ATS when favored by more than 3 points.
• Jackson is 20-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog. In all other spots he is 21-31 ATS career.
• Jackson covers the 1H spread on the road/neutral, he’s 27-10-1 1H ATS and 21-18-1 1H ATS at home.
  Between 2021-23, he’s 20-16-1 1H ATS. From 2018-20, he was 28-12-1 1H ATS.
• When Lamar faces team under .500 SU, he’s 28-4 SU, 16-16 ATS.
• Lamar has faced the NFC in 20 games, he is 19-1 SU, 9-11 ATS. His one loss came vs. Giants last season.
  His 95% win percentage is best by any QB against the opposing conference since the 1970 merger. He’s 37-21 SU, 32-26 ATS vs. AFC

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Jaguars

• Jaguars home/road splits this season:
  Home: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS (7-8 ATS last 2 years)
  Away/Neutral: 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS (11-6 ATS last 2 years)
• Jaguars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. teams above .500 SU over the last two seasons
  Over the last two seasons, Lawrence is 10-5 ATS in this spot, fourth-best QB in the NFL.
• Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite.
  Underdog: 32-25 ATS (7-3 ATS last 10 games)
  Favorite: 29-32 ATS
• Pederson ATS in his career: 61-57 ATS
  Sept-Nov: 37-40 ATS
  Dec on: 24-17 ATS
• Jaguars are 9-17 SU, 10-16 ATS off a loss under Lawrence. They are 11-9 SU, 12-8 ATS off of a win.
• Lawrence has been made into a different QB with Doug Pederson
  w/ Pederson: 18-12 SU/ATS
  w/ Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer: 3-14 SU, 5-12 ATS
• Lawrence is 23-26 against the first half spread in his career, but this season has been a turn around for Lawrence. He is 9-4 ATS in the first half this season – he’s lost two straight.
• Lawrence is 19-12-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season – the third-most profitable 2H ATS QB in the NFL behind Ridder and Purdy.
• Lawrence is 28-21 to the under in the last three seasons – but has gone over in two straight.
• Bad Trevor Lawrence this season:
  Kirk Cousins still has more pass TD, only five QBs have more INT than him, he’s taken the eighth-most sacks and he’s 23rd of 30 QBs in on-target throw percentage this year.
• Lawrence is 13-21 SU as an underdog in his career, but 10-9 SU since the start of last season (3-12 SU as a dog in his rookie year).
• This will be Trevor Lawrence’s seventh career night game. He is 4-2 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 3.3 PPG. Lawrence is 5-1 in a 6-pt teaser in his night game career.
  Lawrence is 4-0 ATS as an underdog at night and 0-2 ATS as a favorite
• Lawrence on the moneyline as an underdog
  Home: 7-7 SU (0-2 SU this season)
  Road/Neutral: 6-14 SU
• As head coach, Doug Pederson is 21-9 SU and 19-11 ATS in night games.
  Pederson is 3-2 SU in night games with Jaguars.
  In the last 20 years, his 21-9 SU mark (+$1,616) is the most profitable ML mark in the NFL of 136 coaches.
  In the last 20 years, his 19-11 ATS mark at night is sixth-best.

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Eagles at Seahawks | Monday, Dec. 18

8:15pm ET | ESPN

PHI -3.5 | 46

Eagles

• Eagles were -400 to make playoffs in preseason, third-shortest odds (KC, SF)
• Eagles are 8-4-1 ATS this season – second-best mark in the NFL behind the Cowboys.
  Best ATS Seasons, Teams to Make Super Bowl Last 20 Years
  22 CIN 12-4 ATS, 04 NE 11-3-2 ATS, 2008 NYG 12-4 ATS, 17 NE 11-5 ATS, 13 SF 11-5 ATS, 11 GB 11-5 ATS
• Eagles have lost by 20+ points in consecutive games.
  It is only the third time in the Wild Card era the Eagles have lost back-to-back games by 20 points or more. They did so back in 2015 and 1998 and covered their next game both times.
  Normally, teams to lose back-to-back games by 20+ points are in a bad spot, going 58-115 SU in their next game since 1990.
• When the Eagles are trailing, they can get back in the game quick.
  Since December 2021, the Eagles are 8-6 SU in their last 14 games when trailing by 10 points or more at any point, including 4-2 SU this season.
  All other teams are 104-531-12 (16.4%) in that spot since the start of 2021.
• The Eagles schedule entering Week 14 has been brutal … and they are 3-2 in those games.
  vs. DAL (W), at KC (W), vs. BUF (W), vs. SF (L), at DAL (L), at SEA
• Impact of Lane Johnson.
  Without him: 14-23 SU
  With him: 94-54-1 SU
• Hurts is 19-12 against the first half spread over the last two seasons. Hurts has lost six straight 1H ATS entering Week 15.
• Eagles are 14-7 1H ML in last 21. Hurts is 27-21-3 1H ML in his career.
  Since start of last season, Eagles are 22-10-1 1H ML – Tied for the second most first half ML wins in NFL behind the Ravens (23)
• Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
  Home: 17-7-1 ATS (1st of 96 QBs since 2020)
  Road/Neutral: 10-15-1 ATS (96th of 98 QBs since 2020)
  All other PHI QBs in the last 20 years are 71-82-1 ATS at home and 81-70-2 ATS road/neutral.
• The Eagles are 26-5 SU when Jalen Hurts plays the last two regular seasons
• Hurts doesn’t love facing good offenses. Eagles are 10-12 SU vs. team scoring 24 PPG or more on the year and 22-4 SU under that mark.
• Hurts is just 7-7 SU, 6-8 ATS after a SU loss, including just 4-5 SU on road.
• Hurts in night games: 10-6 SU, 10-5-1 ATS
  Home in night games: 7-3 SU, 8-1-1 ATS (2-4 ATS away from home)
• Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 88-62-1 ATS (59%) since 2020.
  Week 15: IND, CAR, WAS, HOU, PHI
• Good teams who score fewer than 14 points are good bets the following week. Teams who are over .500 SU and off scoring fewer than 14 points are 104-79-6 ATS (56.8%) last ten years.
  Week 15: DET, HOU, PHI
• Good third down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 320-256-19 ATS (55.6%) last 20 years.
  Week 15: SF, KC, PHI

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Seahawks

• In the last 20 years, Seahawks are 24-14-1 ATS as home dogs, third-most profitable team in the NFL (ARI, PIT).
  Seattle has been a home dog at night 12 times in that span, they are 6-6 SU and 8-4 ATS (0-1 SU/ATS in 2023).
• Since 2015, teams who were underdogs of 13 or more points are 62-39-1 1H ATS in their next game
  Week 15: TEN, SEA
• Teams on the second leg or later of a road trip when facing Seattle are 12-39 SU, 21-29-1 ATS last 20 years, including 0-3 SU this season.
• Pete Carroll teams usually start slow before they get going…
  Carroll in Weeks 1 & 2: 11-16-1 ATS
  Carroll in Week 3 on: 113-94-7 ATS
• Pete Carroll is 56-40-3 ATS as an underdog. Carroll has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog in seven straight years leading up to this season (4-3 ATS in 2023)
• Recently, Pete Caroll has also struggled with extended rest. Since 2020, the Seahawks are 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS in this spot and he is 22-25-2 ATS in his career with Seahawks in that spot.
• The divisional battles might take it out of Seattle. They are 7-14 ATS after facing an NFC West opponent under Carroll since 2020, making him second-least profitable coach ATS in that spot (ahead of just Sean McDermott).
• Carroll is 36-19-3 ATS in night games, best of any coach over the last 20 years. He is just 9-12 ATS at night since 2019.
  Since 1990, 32 coaches have 20+ night games under their belt. Carroll’s 66% ATS win pct at night is 2nd-best of the 32 coaches behind just Tony Dungy.
• Carroll is 16-13 SU, 19-10 ATS as a home dog, ATS mark is second-best of 146 coaches last 20 years, behind only Tomlin.
• Pete does well at home with Seahawks.
  72-29 SU at home w Russ and Geno
  10-7 SU at home w all other QBs
• Geno Smith is 22-17-2 ATS as a dog, but only 10-13 ATS as a favorite.
• Here is how Geno Smith has performed on extended rest.
  Week 1s: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
  In-Season: 4-9 SU, 7-6 ATS
• Geno Smith has started 12 games at night in his career, he is 3-9 SU, but 9-3 ATS. He’s been listed as an underdog in ten of those 12 games.
• Drew Lock career SU/ATS: 8-14 SU, 13-9 ATS
  Home: 5-5 SU, 7-3 ATS | Road: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS
  At night: 0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS (scored 30 total points in two games)
• Seahawks backup QB stats. In the last 10 years, Seattle has needed to start a back up QB just four times. Once last week vs. 49ers and three times under Geno Smith in 2021. Seahawks are 1-3 SU in those games, but 4-0 ATS.
• Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season (game 9 on), are 124-152-6 ATS (44.9%) since 2015.
  Week 15: TB, ARI, SEA

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NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️

Biggest NFL Week 15 Public Sides
Rams (-6.5) vs. WAS					84% of bets
Eagles (-3.5) at SEA					78% of bets

Biggest NFL Week 15 Line Moves
Dolphins (-1.5 to -8) vs. NYJ
49ers (-7 to -12.5) at ARI

NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️

Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Week 15
Bears at Browns (-2.5)					100k bets
Cowboys at Bills (-2)					80k bets

Biggest NFL Week 15 Public Totals
ATL-CAR (O/U: 32.5)					80% of bets to under
NYJ-MIA (O/U: 37)					78% of bets to under

System: An underdog system for teams off getting blown out in their last game.

Matches: WAS, CAR

PRO: Dogs After Blowout

the game is played during the Regular season

the spread is between 3 and 30

the team's previous game margin is between -100 and -20

$6,543

WON

327-240-13

RECORD

58%

WIN%

View System

System: When good defensive teams meet, bet the over on a low total.

Matches: KC/NE

$$$: Good D Teams, Over on Low Total (under 40; Nov or later)

the game was played in November or January or December

the closing total is between 0 and 39.5

the game is played during the Regular season

the visiting team's average points allowed is between 0 and 20.9

the home team's average points allowed is between 0 and 20.9

betting on the Over

$2,126

WON

110-83-1

RECORD

57%

WIN%

View System

System: A bad team, listed as an underdog, who is outperforming expectations so far.

Matches: LAC, CAR, ARI

$$$: Sm Pythag Edge Dogs, Bad Team

the team's win percentage is between 0% and 49%

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

the team is the Dog

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 season

the team's Pythagorean +/- is between 5% and 15%

$4,488

WON

154-97-4

RECORD

61%

WIN%

View System

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

• KaVontae Turpin has been the most profitable ATD scorer during the 2023 season.

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

• Jayden Reed's first TD over the weekend tossed him to the top of the standings.

League Trends ⤵️

Saturday Is For The NFL

Weekend Football

Saturday NFL Trends
+ Teams with a big ATS advantage on the season are at a disadvantage historically ATS on Saturday games. Teams with 10%+ positive ATS differential than their opponent are 38-50-6 ATS (43.2%) on Saturday games last 20 years – worst of any non-Sunday day.
Week 15: DET, IND, MIN
+ The public has historically struggled on Saturday, going 83-96-7 ATS (46.4%) last 20 years – worst of any non-Sunday day.
+ When both teams are on short rest, the first half over is 62-43-3 (59%) in the last five years (2019), including 12-3 this season.
Week 15: LAC/LV, DEN/DET, MIN/CIN

Orange Crush

Defense & Week 15

What a resurgence from the Broncos defense.

• Broncos defense is third in EPA/play since Week 6. In Weeks 1-5, they were 32nd, last in the NFL.
• Broncos defense allowed a completion pct of 73.6% through eigh games this season, that was tied for the third-highest comp. % through eight games in the Super Bowl era.
  Since that point, Broncos have allowed a comp% of 55.3%, lowest mark in the NFL.

Tough road spot for Broncos…
+ Teams playing on the road on short rest, after playing on the road in their previous game are 40-67 SU, 48-55-4 ATS last 20 years. These teams are 7-15 ATS last three seasons and 22-34-4 ATS last decade.
Week 15: DEN, MIN
+ Teams playing on road on short rest, after a SU win in their previous game as an underdog are 30-69 SU last 20 years.
Week 15: DEN, NYG
+ Teams at the end of a road trip tend to fall off a bit. On the third game or later of a road trip, teams are 44-66 SU in the last 20 years, including 21-55 SU in that spot as an underdog.
Week 15: DEN
+ Underdogs on road on short rest, after a SU win in their previous game as an underdog are 43-70-4 ATS last 20 years.
Week 15: DEN, NYG

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Biggest Super Bowl Riser

Buffalo Bills: 18-1 (BUF was 30-1 to win SB last week)

Biggest Super Bowl Faller

Houston Texans: 80-1 (HOU was 50-1 to win SB last week)

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

NFL Win Total Grid and Progress

Trending Up 📈
Colts ✅					7-6	Win Total: 6.5
Texans ✅					7-6	Win Total: 6.5
Cowboys ✅					10-3	Win Total: 9.5
49ers					10-3	Win Total: 10.5
Ravens					10-3	Win Total: 10.5
Lions					9-4	Win Total: 9.5
Dolphins					9-4	Win Total: 9.5
Buccaneers					6-7	Win Total: 6.5
Rams					6-7	Win Total: 6.5
Eagles					10-3	Win Total: 11.5
Browns					8-5	Win Total: 9.5
Jaguars					8-5	Win Total: 9.5
Broncos					7-6	Win Total: 8.5
Steelers					7-6	Win Total: 8.5
Vikings					7-6	Win Total: 8.5
Packers					6-7	Win Total: 7.5

Trending Down 📉
Raiders					5-8	Win Total: 6.5
Falcons					6-7	Win Total: 8.5
Seahawks					6-7	Win Total: 8.5
Chiefs					8-5	Win Total: 11.5
Cardinals					3-10	Win Total: 4.5
Bears					5-8	Win Total: 7.5
Giants					5-8	Win Total: 7.5
Titans					5-8	Win Total: 7.5
Bills					7-6	Win Total: 10.5
Saints					6-7	Win Total: 9.5
Commanders					4-9	Win Total: 6.5
Bengals ❌					7-6	Win Total: 11.5
Chargers ❌					5-8	Win Total: 9.5
Jets ❌					5-8	Win Total: 9.5
Patriots ❌					3-10	Win Total: 7.5
Panthers ❌					1-12	Win Total: 7.5

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Odds	3rd In Odds
NFL MVP	Dak Prescott (+150)	Brock Purdy (+175)	Lamar Jackson (+600)
Offensive POY	Tyreek Hill (-200)	Christian McCaffrey (+150)	CeeDee Lamb (+1600)
Defensive POY	Micah Parsons (-130)	Myles Garrett (+200)	T.J. Watt (+600)
Offensive ROY	CJ Stroud (-3000)	Jahmyr Gibbs (+1800)	Puka Nacua (+1800)
Defensive ROY	Jalen Carter (-500)	Devon Witherspoon (+700)	Will Anderson (+700)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (-500)	Tua Tagovailoa (+500)	Lamar Jackson (+1500)
Coach Of The Year	Dan Campbell (+325)	DeMeco Ryans (+325)	Mike McDaniel (+325)
Updated as of Dec. 12th

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• The MVP favorite is now solely Dak Prescott's. The fifth different player to be sole favorite to win MVP this season (Dak, Hurts, Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa).
• Odds-on favorites to win award: Tyreek Hill OPOY, Micah Parsons DPOY, CJ Stroud OROY, Jalen Carter DROY, Damar Hamlin CPOY.

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Trivia Question: In the 2023 season, which team is the best/most profitable on a 6-pt teaser?

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