NFL Week 17 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Two weeks to go in the regular season and we have contract incentives, win totals, season-long leader races, awards season, playoff races and scenarios — just a beautiful time of year.

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 17 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, December. 31, 1 p.m. ET.

We Have A New King!

MVP Carousel

The big topic of discussion entering Week 17 is the NFL MVP race. So far in 2023, we've had eight different players listed as at least a co-favorite to win the award. For comparison, we had four such players last year (Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Hurts) and five such players the year before (Mahomes, Kyler, Allen, Brady, Rodgers).

Same, But Different

Two Face

A tough spot for Tua and Lamar…

• Tua Tagovailoa is now 2-8 straight up and 3-6-1 against the spread, road/neutral vs. "winning" teams — he is failing to cover the spread by 9.6 PPG.
• Lamar Jackson is 27-10 SU and 14-23 ATS as a home favorite. Of 217 QBs over the last 20 years, he is ranked 211th ATS as a home favorite.

Flying Out

Niners Go East

It is not every day the NFL makes a West Coast team travel to play on the East Coast on short rest.

The Chargers, Seahawks, Rams, Raiders, Cardinals and 49ers have been in this spot 23 times in the last 20 years and they are 8-14-1 ATS (36.4%).

The Dak Narrative

Playing The Role

The story that never ends. Dak Prescott does well vs. bad teams and struggles vs. good teams.

He is 36-10 SU, 31-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 22-26 SU, 18-30 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.

• The 31-13-2 ATS mark is second-best in the last 20 years behind just Tom Brady.
• The 18-30 ATS mark is 261st of 264 QBs in the last 20 years.

Hold The Ketchup

Arrowhead Unders

In his NFL career, Patrick Mahomes is 35-22-1 to the under in his home starts.

That includes a mark of 15-3 to the under at home over the last two seasons, the most profitable home QB to under in that span.

End Of An Era?

Belichick Records

The Patriots are massive underdogs against the Bills this week, getting as high as +13.5. Depending where it closes, we could see some records.

• Belichick’s biggest underdog career
  +14 – 2001 NE Super Bowl vs. Rams (W, 20-17)
  +13.5 – 1991 CLE at Oilers (L, 28-24)
  +13.5 – 1991 CLE at Washington (L, 42-17)
  +13 – 1992 CLE at Oilers (W, 24-14)
  +13 – 1992 CLE at Raiders (W, 28-16)
• Belichick’s biggest underdog vs. own division
  +13.5 – 1991 at Oilers (L, 28-24)
  +13 – 1992 at Oilers (W, 24-14)
  +12 – 2001 NE vs. Colts (W, 44-13)
  +10.5 – 2001 NE at Colts (W, 38-17)
  +8.5 – 2023 NE at Dolphins (L, 31-17)
  +8.5 – 2022 NE at Bills (L, 35-23)

Saturday Special

High Flying?

The Lions-Cowboys total is currently listed at 53.5 — this would be the highest closing O/U of the season so far.

• It would be the highest total since MIA/LAC (54.5) in December of last year.
• Totals of 50+ are 27-12 (69%) to under last two years.

A Short Disaster

More Prep Needed

Jets coach Robert Saleh is 0-5 against the spread when his team is playing on short rest (six days or less).

Since 1990, Saleh is the only coach 0-5 ATS or worse on short rest.

Jets at Browns | Thursday, Dec 28

8:15pm ET | Amazon

CLE -7 | 34

Jets

• NFL first-half unders are now 99-76-3 (56.6%) in night games since 2021, including 25-23-1 on Thursday Night Football and 34-20-1 on Monday Night Football in that span.
• Thursday home teams are just 33-36 SU, 27-42 ATS since 2020, including 24-37 ATS in night Thursday games (worst of any day of week for home teams at night). Since 2020, Thursday home teams at night 23-37 ATS. All other days of the week, 87-79-3 ATS.
• Bet home teams on Thursday night? Since 2020, they are only 31-30 SU. They are 99-71 SU (58.2%) on all other nights.
• When both teams are on short rest, the first half over is 64-45-3 (58%) in the last five years (2019), including 14-5 this season. Week 17: CLE/NYJ, DAL/DET
• The Jets have now scored 30 points or more in two of their last three games — with a shutout to Miami sandwiched in the middle.
  Jets are the third team since 1990 to score 30+ points, followed by getting shutout, followed by scoring 30+ points again. The Bucs did it in 2021 and the Raiders back in 1995.
• Jets are 52-for-204 on third downs (25.5%). Through 15 games, that is the worst Third Down Percentage for any team since 2012 Cardinals.
• This will be the 36th night game for the Jets and Giants since the 2018 season. They are a combined 5-30 SU,
  Since 2018, Jets and Giants are 2-15 SU at home in night games.
  Since 2018, Jets and Giants are 3-15 SU in their last 18 road games at night
• Jets are historically a struggling road team. They are 24-41-4 ATS on the road since 2015, under .500 ATS on the road in 7 of the last eight years. 1-4-1 this season.
• Since 2015, Jets are 24-41-4 ATS (36.9%) on the road, worst in the NFL.
  Jets’ 24 ATS road wins since 2015 are seven fewer than any team (CLE/CHI, 31)
  A $100 bettor is down $1,887, failing to cover by 3.3 PPG. When the Jets opponent is above .500? 7-15-2 ATS (32%).
• Fewest SU wins, teams with win total of 8.5 or more: Jets/Chargers with 5
• Saleh and the Jets have struggled to win against good offensive teams.
  20 PPG or higher: 10-22 SU
  19.9 PPG or less: 6-8 SU
• Jets after scoring 20+ points under Saleh: 8-13 SU, 9-11-1 ATS
• Jets after a SU win under Saleh: 5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS
• With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets have been starting a “backup QB” all season. They've struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB. They are 8-33 SU, 14-26-1 ATS over the last decade when starting a backup QB.
• Fewest snaps played by Week 1 QB starting a season since 2007
  3 – Aaron Rodgers, NYJ 2023 (6-9 SU, 5-9-1 ATS)
  15 – Tomy Brady, NE 2008 (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS)
  15 – Ryan Fitzpatrick, WAS 2021 (7-10 SU, 7-9-1 ATS)
• Jets have 28 fumbles as a team this season – tied for the most in the NFL with Jaguars.
• Are the Jets the biggest flop ever? The Jets were 150-1 to win it all entering last season. They entered this year at 18-1. That big of a jump into inside 20-1 odds year-to-year has only been done three other times. All four teams are a combined 29-35 SU, 25-36-3 ATS
• Jets have struggled on short rest…
  Saleh has coached five games on short rest, Jets are 0-5 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 10.3 PPG.
  Since 2021, Jets are one of two NFL teams without a straight up win on short rest, the other is the Falcons (0-3 SU).
  Since 1990, Saleh is the only coach 0-5 ATS or worse on short rest.

Biggest SB Moves Year-to-Year to Inside 20-1 Odds Since Merger
1979 to 1980 WAS 300-1 to 8-1 (+29,200). 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, Miss
1999 to 2000 STL 150-1 to 3-1 (+14,700). 10-7 SU, 6-10-1 ATS, L WC
1983 to 1984 NO 150-1 to 8-1 (+14,200). 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, Miss
2022 to 2023 NYJ 150-1 to 18-1 (+13,200). 6-9 SU, 5-9-1 ATS

• Teams with a win percentage of 40% or less, facing team with win pct of 60% or more are 181-213-12 ATS (45.9%) when the game is played in November or later in the last decade. Week 17: NYJ, WAS, NE, ARI
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 189-130-9 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 & 103-76–6 ATS (58%) last two years. Week 17: NYJ, LAC, PIT, ATL, CAR, NE

---

---

Browns

• Browns are 11-4 to the team total over – tied for the most team total overs by any team this season with the Colts.
  Browns are 20-11-1 to their team total over the last two seasons
• Joe Flacco now has 10 passing TDs this season in 16 quarters. Kenny Pickett has 6 passing TDs in 12 games.
  Zach Wilson has 8 pass TDs this season in 368 attempts. Flacco has 10 in 175 attempts.
• Flacco’s biggest favorite since Sept. 9, 2018 at home against the Bills with the Ravens. He was -7.5 and won 47-3. -8 or higher was Dec 31, 2017 at home vs. Bengals (-8), he lost 31-27. Flacco hasn’t closed as an 8-pt favorite or higher at night since closing -11.5 in Sept. 2012 vs. Browns
• Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win pct of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win pct, are 64-95-5 ATS (40.3%) last 20 years
  Week 17: CLE, BUF, HOU, LAR, IND, ATL, TB, KC, DEN
• Flacco’s last three games: 1,053 pass yds, 8 TD, 3-0 SU
  How good of a run has Flacco been on? In his career, he’s only thrown for 1,000 yards in three straight wins one other time – back in 2012 and he had six passing TDs – he has eight for the Browns during this run.
• With Deshaun Watson now gone for the season with shoulder surgery, another week of a backup QB in Cleveland.
  Browns will start a backup QB for the 60th time in the last decade this week. They are 22-38 SU, 29-30-1 ATS in those games.
  Browns have actually done a good job in these games lately going 7-7 SU and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games with a backup.
  Under Stefanski, Browns are 11-12 SU, 13-9-1 ATS with a backup QB.
• Here is how Browns QBs stack up this season (ranks min. 50 QB plays; of 55 QBs)
  Watson: 31st EPA/play, 38th success rate, 46th comp%
  Flacco: 33rd EPA/play, 35th success rate, 47th comp%
  DTR: 50th EPA/play, 47th success rate, 51st comp%
  Walker: 51st EPA/play, 50th success rate, 55th comp%
• Stefanski with Browns
  Favorite: 26-10 SU, 16-20 ATS
  Dog: 10-20 SU, 16-13-1 ATS
• Stefanski as a big favorite.
  -4 or higher: 14-3 SU, 6-11 ATS
  -6 or higher: 11-2 SU, 5-8 ATS
  -7 or higher: 8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS
• Browns are 14-13-1 ATS after a loss under Stefanski.
  Browns are 14-20 SU, 15-19 ATS after a SU win under Stefanski
  Browns are 7-14 ATS in their last 21 games after a SU win.
• Browns are 12-11 SU, 8-15 ATS vs. AFC North under Kevin Stefanski. Of the 146 head coaches in the past 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski ranks 140th.
  Stefanski is 24-18-1 ATS against non-AFC North teams.
• The Browns pass defense has been unreal.
  Fewest pass yards allowed thru 15 games since 2006 Raiders/Colts
  Their 215 first downs allowed thru 15 games is fewest for any team since 2008 Ravens.
• Browns rush offense since Nick Chubb’s injury. Since Week 3:
  Browns are 19th in NFL in rush EPA and 21st in rush success.
• Browns defense
  105 points allowed at home in eight games (13.1, lowest NFL)
  206 points allowed on road in seven games (29.4, 2nd-highest NFL)
• Flacco career in night games: 25-17 SU, 22-18-2 ATS | night games at home: 12-3 SU, 8-7 ATS
  Flacco career on Thursday Night Football: 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS
• Flacco in his career SU/ATS…
  Home: 65-29 SU, 45-47-2 | Road/Neutral: 47-58 SU, 54-45-6 ATS
• The Browns have never seen the type of success this season with the same type of expectations. The 2023 Browns have their most SU wins in a season with a win total of 9 or more since moving to Cleveland in 1999 and their most wins in a season with 40-1 preseason Super Bowl odds or shorter.

Browns Highest Win Total Since Moving to Cleveland in 1999 (Wins)
10.5: 2021 (8)
9: 2023 (10-5 SU)
9: 2019 (6)

Browns SU record with Super Bowl odds of 40-1 or shorter since 1990:
2023: 10-5 SU
2022: 7-10
2021: 8-9
2019: 6-10
2008: 4-12
2003: 5-11
2002: 9-7
1995: 5-11
1993: 7-9
1992: 7-9
1990: 3-13

---

---

Lions at Cowboys | Saturday, Dec. 30

8:15pm ET | ABC

DAL -4.5 | 53.5

Lions

• The Lions went over their preseason win total and won their division this season. The Lions haven't won 10 games since 2014 and they’ve now gone over their win total in consecutive seasons for first time since 2016-17. The last time Detroit went over its win total by at least two games in back-to-back seasons was 1999-00. They can do that with a win in either Week 17 or 18.
• Sam LaPorta is having an unreal season.
  LaPorta leads all tight ends in fantasy points this season and is third in PPR (behind T.J. Hockenson and Travis Kelce).
  Most TE fantasy points in players first season: Mike Ditka, 1961 (179) and LaPorta, 2023 (136)
  Most TE receptions in players first season: Keith Jackson, 1988 (81), Sam LaPorta, 2023 (74), Jeremy Shockey, 2002 (74)
  Most TE receiving touchdowns in first season: Mike Ditka, 1988 (12), Rob Gronkowski (10), Sam LaPorta, 2023 (9), Junior Miller, 1980 (9)
• Jared Goff career as an underdog: 16-31 SU, 27-21 ATS
• Goff and Dan Campbell after facing NFC North opponent: 8-6 SU, 10-4 ATS
• Goff broke a 14-game streak of completing at least 60% of his passes in Week 13 against the Bears. He now has two straight games of 60%+ completion pct.
• Jared Goff and the Lions will now play their final two games in a dome: at DAL, MIN
• Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor.
  Indoor: 33-16 ATS (23-8 ATS last three seasons)
  Outdoor: 34-35-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in Nov or earlier | 9-15-1 ATS in Dec/Jan)
• Goff has played 18 games on short rest in his career, he is 7-11 SU, 10-8 ATS. He’s just 2-5 SU on short rest with the Lions and 3-7 SU on short rest in his last 10 starts in the spot.
• Goff has faced a team with a 75%+ win percentage seven times over the last three seasons, he is 7-1 SU, 8-0 ATS.
• Goff has performed well at night, going 17-10 SU, 16-10-1 ATS.
  Including 5-1 SU/ATS with Lions.
• Since the start of 2021, Goff is 10-2 ATS vs. teams with a 66% win pct or higher.
• Dan Campbell is 37-24 ATS (60.7%) in his career. Of ​​115 NFL coaches who have 50+ games of experience under their belt since 1990, Campbell has the best ATS win percentage of all of them
• Goff is 10-5 ATS in games not in EST with Lions, he was 25-31-2 ATS in that spot with Rams.
• Dating back to last season, Goff has covered 9-3 in 12 games vs. above .500 SU opponents, going 13-4 ATS in this spot since 2021 – second-best mark in the NFL, behind Joe Burrow.
• Goff is 23-8-1 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
• Goff is most profitable QB ATS over last five years (49-28-1 ATS, +$1,736).
• Lions are 22-10 ATS since the start of last season, most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($1,005).
  Lions have 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons (10-5 ATS this year). Prior to this stretch, Lions had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995.
  Lions are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games overall.
• Goff is 21-10 ATS at home since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL ($943)
  Goff on the road since 2020: 18-13 ATS
• Goff went 383 pass attempts without an interception before throwing one in Week 2 – the third-longest streak in NFL history behind Aaron Rodgers (402) and Tom Brady (399).
  In 2023, he is +1.05 units betting his yes INT prop.
  If you bet on Goff to throw an INT in every game last season, you would have been down 7.3U (most of any QB).
• Teams playing on the road on short rest, after playing on the road in their previous game are 40-69 SU, 48-56-5 ATS last 20 years. These teams are 8-15-1 ATS last three seasons and 22-35-5 ATS last decade.
  Week 17: DET, LV
• Fade good SU and ATS teams. In December or later, teams with a 70%+ win percentage & 60%+ cover percentage are 214-262-10 ATS (45%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: DET
• Really good teams who are listed as underdogs late in the season have struggled. Teams with a 70%+ win percentage in December or later, who are listed as dogs are 49-73-3 ATS (40.2%) in the regular season.
  Week 17: DET, MIA
• Lions are 33-16 ATS (67.3%) over the last three seasons – best mark in the NFL, profiting a $100 bettor +$1,402.
  This is the best three-year stretch ATS for any team since the Patriots between 2016-18, going 40-17 ATS, for +$2,252

Three Year ATS Stretch (Since 2010):
2016-18 NE 40-17, 2252
2015-17 NE 36-18-2, 1746
2011-13 SEA 35-17-1, 1661
2011-13 SF 36-18-1, 1595
2012-14 SEA 36-19-1, 1564
2013-15 MIN 33-16, 1541
2014-16 NE 35-19-2, 1529
2014-16 MIN 33-16, 1517
2015-17 MIN 34-17, 1505
2021-23 DET 33-16, 1402
2017-19 KC 33-19-2, 1356
2012-14 IND 34-19-1, 1330
2020-22 CIN 36-20, 1304

---

---

Cowboys

• This line initially opened at Cowboys -3.5 and has ballooned to Cowboys -6 and higher at some shops. It has been profitable to follow the line with Dak Prescott. His teams are 22-10 ATS when the line moves against him (ex. -5 to -7) by two points or more. When the line moves at all against Prescott between the opening and closing lines, his teams are 32-21-1 ATS in his career.
• Since 2021, Cowboys are 13-5 SU and 13-5 ATS in night games, the most profitable team ATS at night in that span.
• When Prescott is a favorite at night, he is 18-9-1 ATS in his career – 10-1 ATS in since 2021
  Last 20 years, that is the 3rd-best mark in the NFL: Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Dak Prescott
• Prescott has lost his last six starts SU at night as an underdog dating back to 2019.
  At night, Prescott is 23-5 SU as a favorite and 3-8 SU as an underdog.
• Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy is very much like Prescott, he plays to his role in night games: 32-17-1 ATS as a favorite, 13-21-2 ATS as a dog at night.
  McCarthy’s 32-17-1 ATS mark as a favorite at night is most profitable last 20 years
• Overall, Prescott is 26-13 SU, 23-15-1 ATS in night games.
  He’s the fifth-most profitable QB ATS over the past 20 years at night: Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott
• Cowboys are 12-3 ATS at home in their last 15 games.
• Precott tends to perform well as a big favorite. He’s 36-7 SU, 30-12-1 ATS as a favorite of 6 pts or more
  His 30-12-1 ATS mark is 2nd-most profitable last 20 years of 145 QBs behind just Tom Brady.
  He’s 25-4 SU, 19-9-1 ATS as a 6+ pt favorite at home
• Prescott is just 7-10 ATS on short rest in his career. Out of 216 QBs over the last 20 years on short rest, Prescott is 205th ATS.
• Ceedee Lamb is having an unreal season for the Cowboys.
  DAL records through 15 games: second-most targets (151), most receptions (109) and second-most receiving yards (1,424)
• Cowboys home vs. road this season
  Home: 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS .. covering by 15.2 PPG
  Road: 3-5 SU/ATS.. Not covering by an average of 2.9 ppg
• Dak is 7-1 ATS coming off a loss last two seasons and 8-11 ATS off a SU win.
  7-1 ATS mark is best in the NFL. Dak is 11-2 ATS off a loss last three seasons.
• Dak does well vs. bad teams. He is 36-10 SU, 31-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 22-26 SU, 18-30 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
  The 31-13-2 ATS mark is 2nd best in the last 20 years behind just Tom Brady.
  The 18-30 ATS mark is 261st of 264 QBs in the last 20 years.
• When both teams are on short rest, the first half over is 64-45-3 (58%) in the last five years (2019), including 14-5 this season.
  Week 17: CLE/NYJ, DAL/DET
• Teams to average 30 PPG or more in December or later are 88-121-3 ATS (42.1%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: DAL, MIA
• Tough to play off a party city. Last five years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 104-143-8 ATS (42.1%).
  Week 17: DAL, IND, WAS

---

---

Dolphins at Ravens | Sunday, Dec. 31

1:00pm ET | CBS

BAL -3 | 46.5

Dolphins

• The Dolphins are still the favorites to win AFC East at -350, Miami hadn’t been a preseason favorite to win AFC East since 2003 and they haven’t been favored at all to win the AFC East since winning the division back in 2008.
  They haven’t won the AFC East in 14 seasons (fifth-longest active streak in NFL)
• Since 2021, Dolphins are 5-11 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 19-8 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
  After Miami beat Dallas, they are now 3-7 SU since the start of last season vs. teams over .500 SU.
• Dolphins are 4-7 SU in December or later since start of last year.
  Most of their issues have been on the road. They are 1-0 SU on road in December this season, but are 4-13 SU on road in December or later since 2017 and 6-16 SU since 2015. Dolphins are 2-1 SU at home in December in 2023. Miami hasn’t finished below .500 SU at home in December or later since 2014. Last 20 years, Dolphins are 32-24 SU at home in December or later and 17-28 SU on the road.
• Dolphins offense is no longer the NFL leader in YPP after starting at a historical pace. The 49ers lead by a small margin now.
  Highest YPP thru 15 games in SB era:
  2000 Rams: 7.01, 2018 Chiefs: 6.80, 2004 Colts: 6.78, 2023 49ers: 6.75
  Dolphins at 6.57 this season.
• Tua Tagovailoa vs. teams on short rest: 2-6 SU, 5-3 ATS
• Tagovailoa is now 2-8 straight up and 3-6-1 against the spread, road/neutral vs. "winning" teams — he is failing to cover the spread by 9.6 PPG.
• Dolphins are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games as a road dog dating back to last season and Tua has lost seven of his last nine starts as a road underdog.
• Tagovailoa prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 18-7 ATS at home and 11-12-1 ATS away from home in his career.
  Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015
  Miami is 38-22-3 ATS since 2016 at home – best home team ATS in that span
• Tagovailoa faces Super Bowl-winning head coach John Harbaugh this week.
  He’s 13-2 SU in his career vs. Super Bowl-winning head coaches. His only losses vs SB winning HC? 2023 vs. Andy Reid and 2020 vs. Andy Reid. 2023: DAL, KC (L), NE x2, DEN | 2022: PIT, BAL, NE | 2021: NE x2, NO | 2020: OAK, NE, KC (L), LAR
• Tagovailoa vs. above .500 SU teams career: 8-6-1 ATS
  When he’s at home: 5-0 ATS
  When he’s on road/neutral: 3-6-1 ATS
• Tagovailoa by time zone: 26-11-1 ATS in EST | 3-6 ATS all other time zones
• Dolphins have the NFL’s longest takeaway streak at nine games after Colts streak was broken at 19 in Week 16.
• Really good teams who are listed as underdogs late in the season have struggled. Teams with a 70%+ win percentage in December or later, who are listed as dogs are 49-73-3 ATS (40.2%) in the regular season.
  Week 17: DET, MIA
• Teams to average 30 PPG or more in December or later are 88-121-3 ATS (42.1%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: DAL, MIA
• Dolphins are averaging 30.9 PPG this season and are playing on the road this week. In a teams 10th game or later, teams who average 30 PPG or more playing on the road/neutral are 53-74-5 ATS (41.7%).
• Multiple players with 20+ touchdowns in the same season (since 1965):
  — 2023 (Mostert & McCaffrey)
  — 2021 (Ekeler & Taylor)
  — 2005 (Alexander, Johnson, & Tomlinson)
  — 2003 (Green & Holmes)
  — 1983 (Dickerson & Riggins)
  — 1975 (Foreman & Simpson)
  — 1965 (Brown & Sayers)

---

---

Ravens

• The Ravens already clinched playoff berth. They can clinch the division with: Win + CLE loss
• Ravens covered and won as underdogs last week and now flip the role as home favorites vs. Dolphins
  Teams to win as an underdog the previous week vs. team over .500 SU and then face a team over .500 SU again are 102-127-6 ATS (44.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: BAL, LV, PIT
• Mike McDaniel faced Lamar Jackson back in 2022 and beat him 42-38. In Lamar Jackson’s 80 career starts, he has faced a coach for the first time 41 times – he is 35-6 SU (85.4%), 22-19 ATS in those games. When he faces that coach again (second time or later), he is 23-16 SU and 21-18 ATS.
• Ravens trailed the Rams 22-20 entering fourth quarter of their Week 14 game breaking their streak of 12 straight games to begin the season. Ravens led the Jags and 49ers entering the fourth quarter since.
  Consecutive Games Entering Forth Quarter With Lead To Begin Season
  16, 1998 MIN, 15-1
  13, 2011 GB, 15-1
  12, 2023 BAL, 8-3
  12, 1998 DEN, 14-2
  10, 1984 MIA, 14-2
• Ravens' blown leads …
  This Season: Blew leads in all three losses, including two double-digit leads
  Since 2022: Six losses with a double-digit lead – tied for the most in NFL with Bears, Chargers and Raiders.
  Since 2021 Season: Eight losses with a double-digit lead – tied for the most in NFL with Bears. No other team has more than six.
• Ravens have lost Mark Andrews for the foreseeable future.
  Ravens are 58-34 SU when Andrews gets at least one target in a game. Baltimore is actually 8-2 SU without Andrews since he joined the team.
• Ravens are 11-2-2 on the first quarter moneyline this season and they are 20-8-5 on the 1Q ML last two seasons. Their 11 first quarter wins are the most in the NFL this season.
• Since 2021, teams are 16-34 SU, 18-30-2 ATS after facing the 49ers
  18-30-2 ATS mark and 16-34 SU mark are worst in the NFL
• Lamar Jackson PT to ET: 5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS | Harbaugh was 3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS in this spot with Flacco. Harbaugh career is 8-4 SU, 4-7-1 ATS PST to EST.
• Teams going PT to ET on short rest: 18-25 ATS last 20 years | off a SU win: 10-15-3 ATS
  Week 17: SF, BAL
• Jackson is 27-10 SU and 14-23 ATS as a home favorite. Of 217 QBs over the last 20 years, he is ranked 211th ATS as a home favorite.
  He’s just 11-18 ATS playing a home game at 1P ET
• Harbaugh is 21 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and 2 games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
• Harbaugh is 158-109-9 1H ATS with $100 bettor up $4,076, most of any coach in NFL since 2005.
  With Lamar Jackson & Joe Flacco, Harbaugh is 146-102-9 1H ATS.
• Over the past three seasons, Lamar Jackson is a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog but 13-19 ATS as a favorite, including 6-16 ATS when favored by more than 3 points.
• Jackson is 21-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog. In all other spots he is 22-31 ATS career.
• Jackson covers the 1H spread on the road/neutral, he’s 29-10-1 1H ATS and 21-18-1 1H ATS at home.
• When Lamar faces team under .500 SU, he’s 28-4 SU, 16-16 ATS.
  He’s 21-13 SU and 21-13 ATS when facing team above .500 SU
• Fade teams off a SU win as an underdog, when they are on short rest for their next game. They are 88-123-10 ATS (41.7%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: BAL, LV
• Teams to travel from PT to ET have had 1H success going 113-72-3 1H ATS (61.1%) since 2017.
  Week 17: NO, BAL, LAR, SF, BUF
• Dolphins ML? Tough trip across the country. Teams going from PT or MT to ET on short rest are 32-44 SU, 30-44-2 ATS last 20 years. These teams are 0-2 ATS this season and have lost 6 in a row ATS dating back to last year.
  Week 17: SF, BAL

---

---

Patriots at Bills | Sunday, Dec. 31

1:00pm ET | CBS

BUF -14 | 40

Patriots

• Belichick’s biggest underdog career
  +14 – 2001 NE Super Bowl vs. Rams (W, 20-17)
  +13.5 – 1991 CLE at Oilers (L, 28-24)
  +13.5 – 1991 CLE at Washington (L, 42-17)
  +13 – 1992 CLE at Oilers (W, 24-14)
  +13 – 1992 CLE at Raiders (W, 28-16)
• Belichick’s biggest underdog vs. own division
  +13.5 – 1991 at Oilers (L, 28-24)
  +13 – 1992 at Oilers (W, 24-14)
  +12 – 2001 NE vs. Colts (W, 44-13)
  +10.5 – 2001 NE at Colts (W, 38-17)
  +8.5 – 2023 NE at Dolphins (L, 31-17)
  +8.5 – 2022 NE at Bills (L, 35-23)
• The Patriots team total under is 11-4 this season – tied for the best record to the under in the NFL with Raiders and Chiefs.
• Patriots after a SU win under Belichick recently.
  0-2-1 ATS this season
  Last two years: 3-7-1 ATS
  Last three years: 9-11-1 ATS
  Since 2020: 11-13-1 ATS
• Patriots are 4-10-1 ATS this season, worst record in the NFL, tied with Saints
  Patriots worst ATS start since 1990 (3-12 ATS).
  3-13 ATS is their worst ATS finish back in 1981.
• Patriots are 6-15 SU, 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
• Last two seasons Patriots are 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS game after a SU win at night
• Patriots have struggled vs. the best and done well against some of the bad teams.
  Since 2019, Patriots are 17-24 SU, 15-23-3 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, 2nd-worst ATS mark in the NFL just ahead of the Bears
  Since 2019, they are 19-10 SU, 16-13 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, including 10-10 ATS since 2020.
  In that same span, they are 10-23-2 ATS vs. teams who made playoffs previous season, 2nd-worst mark in the NFL (CHI). When they face a team who didn’t make the playoffs, they are 26-21-1 ATS in that span.
• Belichick win total results in his career
  15-7-2 NE | 2-3 CLE = 17-10-2
  With Tom Brady: 14-3-2
  Without Brady: 3-7
• Since Brady left, Belichick & NE are 29-37 SU, 28-36-2 ATS since 2020.
  Belichick SU career: 249-75 SU with Brady | 47-56 SU without Brady
  Belichick SU with Browns: 37-45 SU
  Belichick is 84-101 SU without Brady in his career
• Since 2021, Belichick is 6-20 SU as an underdog (16-8 SU as a favorite). Between 2003-15, he was 25-22 SU as an underdog.
• Belichick ATS last 20 years by over/under
  Under 40: 38-15-2 ATS (71.7%)
  Under 42: 56-32-3 ATS (62.2%)
  Under 45: 97-67-6 ATS (57.4%)
  45+: 110-90-5 ATS (55%)
• Patriots since 2020 without Tom Brady
  6-1 ATS vs. Jets
  4-12 ATS vs. Bills/Dolphins
• Teams with a win pct of 40% or less, facing team with win percentage of 60% or more are 181-213-12 ATS (45.9%) when the game is played in November or later in the last decade.
  Week 17: NYJ, WAS, NE, ARI
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 189-130-9 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 & 103-76–6 ATS (58%) last two years.
  Week 17: NYJ, LAC, PIT, ATL, CAR, NE
• Divisional games in December or later have had an edge to the under when played in the early window of games (1 p.m. ET). Divisional games played at 1 p.m. ET in Dec. or later are 226-170-9 (57.1%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: NO/TB, TEN/HOU, NE/BUF
• Teams who win as underdogs the week before, who are listed as underdogs again and have a win percentage for the season below 40% are 135-165-8 ATS (45%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: NE

---

---

Bills

• Bills have won three games in a row SU.
  10-5 SU/ATS after winning three straight
  Lost last three ATS in this spot
• Bills have scored 20 pts or more in 6 straight games. Teams to score 20+ points in six straight games are 51-6 SU, 31-25-1 ATS since 2016.
• Bills can go under their preseason win total of 10.5 with a loss this week.
  Currently 9-6 SU, 6-9 ATS
  Third straight year with double-digit win total (none before that since 1992)
  When the Bills offense plays well, the defense tends to show up as well. 10-5 to the under this season
  Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games, including 6-9 ATS in their last 15 games
  Bills 13-19-1 ATS mark since start of last year is the 5th-worst in the NFL
• Another game, another Josh Allen interception.
  December 19-28, 2020: last time Josh Allen didn’t have a turnover in consecutive regular season starts.
  Regular Season:
  He has 75 INT since 2018, most in NFL
  He has 56 fumbles since 2018, most in NFL.
• Josh Allen has 65 wins in his career. 47 of those 65 wins have been by 7 pts or more.
• Josh Allen career SU, ATS on extended rest (8+ days): 11-9, 7-12-1
  Allen’s 7-12-1 ATS mark on extended rest is 220th of 224th QB in the last 20 years.

1. Romo, 223. Rivers, 222. Cousins, 221. Mayfield, 220. Allen

• As a home favorite, Allen, Bills are 33-8 SU. He’s second in the NFL in ML profitability last five years.
  As a home favorite of 7 points or more, Allen is 20-2 SU. He lost to the Colts in 2021 and the Broncos last week.
  Allen is 29-5 SU as a favorite of 7 or more overall, including 12-1 SU off a loss.
  When Allen is favored by 3 points or more after a SU loss, he’s 16-3 SU, 10-7-2 ATS.
• Josh Allen vs AFC East
  NE: 7-3-1 ATS – Allen’s most profitable opponent ATS
  MIA/NYJ: 10-12-1 ATS
  Allen is 5-6 ATS vs. Jets
• Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win percentage of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win percentage, are 64-95-5 ATS (40.3%) last 20 years
  Week 17: CLE, BUF, HOU, LAR, IND, ATL, TB, KC, DEN
• Teams to travel from PT to ET have had first half success going 113-72-3 1H ATS (61.1%) since 2017.
  Week 17: NO, BAL, LAR, SF, BUF
• Bills are 17-3 SU in their last 20 home games, including 27-6 SU in their last 33 home games.
• Allen has played ten games as a 13-point favorite or higher, he is 10-1 SU, 5-4-2 ATS. Only loss to Jaguars as 16-pt favorite.
• Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career.
  Allen is 32-20-3 ATS on 7 days rest (11th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot)
  He’s 8-10-1 ATS on short rest and 7-12-1 ATS on extended rest.
• The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 58-38-3 against the second half spread. Since 2005, he’s the 2nd-most profitable QB on the second half spread of 257 QBs.
• Josh Allen is 0-6 in overtime. The Bills as a franchise are now 3-12 SU (20%) in overtime since 2010, worst win percentage of any team.
• Tough schedule this year
  Week 9 on, face seven of top-10 teams in Super Bowl odds
  In London Week 5 vs JAC, no bye till Week 13
  Three of last five games after bye on road (KC, LAC, MIA)
• Biggest Bills Spreads vs. Patriots Since 1970
  -19: 1992 vs. NE (W, 16-7)
  -17: 1991 vs. NE (W, 22-17)
  -15: 1990 vs. NE (W, 14-0)
  -14: 1992 at NE (W, 41-7)
  -14: 1993 vs. NE (W, 38-14)
  -12: 2023 vs NE

---

---

Falcons at Bears | Sunday, Dec. 31

1:00pm ET | CBS

CHI -2.5 | 39

Falcons

• Atlanta is currently a 3-point underdog in their Week 17 matchup vs. Bears. Each of the 15 games the Falcons have played this season has had a spread of less than 4 points. Previously in the Super Bowl era, the longest such streak to start a season was eight games (2004, Washington).
• Falcons are 5-10 ATS this season, the 3rd worst record in the NFL behind the Patriots and Saints.
• The seesaw QB battle race in Atlanta is back to Taylor Heineke (ranks min. 50 QB plays; of 55 QBs)
  Ridder: 38th EPA/play, 20th success rate, 32nd comp%
  Heinicke: 17th EPA/play, 18th success rate, 41st comp%
• List of QBs Falcons have faced this season:
  Wins: Carr, Boyle, Stroud, Love, Mayfield, Bryce Young, Minshew
  Losses: Mayfield, Young, Goff, J. Hall, Murray, Howell, Lawrence, Levis,
• Falcons are 6-7-2 on the first half moneyline this season
• Falcons are 7-13-4 1H ML, 7-17 1H ATS in their last 23 games.
  Their 11-21 1H ATS last two seasons is the worst in NFL
  After starting the season 0-6 1H ATS and 1-8 1H ATS, Falcons are 5-1 1H ATS in their last 6 games.
• Taylor Heinicke is 6-3-1 SU as a favorite and 7-12 SU as an underdog. Profitable on the ML in both spots.
• Heinicke is 7-11-1 SU vs. teams .500 SU or better on the season, losing those games by 4.63 PPG.
• Falcons are 20-31-1 ATS vs. non-NFC South divisions since 2019, 2nd-worst mark in the NFL.
• Falcons have struggled ATS recently.
  They are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games overall dating back to last season.
  4-10 ATS last 14 games.
• Arthur Smith teams tend to fade late.
  Sept-Oct: 11-12 ATS
  Nov. on: 9-16-1 ATS
  Smith is 6-6 ATS in first four games of the season – his teams are 14-22-1 ATS in Game 5 forward.
• Arthur Smith is 12-12 SU, 8-16 ATS at home as a head coach (9-16 SU, 12-12-1 ATS road/neutral) – Worst Falcons HC ATS at home last 20 years
• Falcons are 13-14 ATS after a SU loss under Arthur Smith. An average team. After a win, not so much.
  Falcons are 5-14 SU, 5-13-1 ATS after a SU win under Smith.
• Falcons are 5-13-1 ATS after a SU win under Arthur Smith – 1-5 ATS this season.
  Ranks 136th of 143 coaches last 20 years and ranks dead last of 49 coaches since he was hired in 2021.
• Falcons after a double-digit win under Arthur Smith: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS
• How do Falcons perform going from favorite to underdog in consecutive games under Arthur Smith? They are 0-5 SU, 0-4-1 ATS under Arthur Smith when coming off a SU win as a favorite and they are now listed as an underdog.
• Falcons continue their journey have playing zero games this season with a positive rest differential vs. their opponent.
  Played on road before game in London (Weeks 3, 4) – they lost at Lions.
  Seven of last 11 games on the road – they are 4-5 SU in this stretch.
  Three of last four games are on the road – they are 1-1 SU in this stretch.
• Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win pct of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win pct, are 64-95-5 ATS (40.3%) last 20 years
  Week 17: CLE, BUF, HOU, LAR, IND, ATL, TB, KC, DEN
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 189-130-9 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 & 103-76–6 ATS (58%) last two years.
  Week 17: NYJ, LAC, PIT, ATL, CAR, NE

---

---

Bears

• Bears have closed -4 or higher just twice since Sept. of 2020. Both times have been against Mike Glennon with the Giants and the Jaguars.
  Currently -3 at home vs Falcons
  QBs Bears have closed -4.5 or higher against: Glennon (x2), Daniel Jones, Sean Mannion, David Blough, Daniel Jones, Jeff Driskel
  Bears last time as favorites in b2b weeks: November 28, 2019 vs Lions (W, 24-20)
  Bears closing -3 or higher consecutive games: 31-12 SU, 13-27 ATS over last 20 years
  over a FG: 19-6 SU, 10-5 ATS
• If football games ended after 3 quarters, the Chicago Bears would be 9-5-1.
  They have yet to win a game where they entered the 3rd quarter tied/trailing (0-6).
• First time Bears have won 3 straight home games SU in the same season since December 2019.
  First four-game SU home win streak since 2018 (won five in a row)
• Bears have been very streaky at home since 2021. (9-15 SU)
  Won last four, lost 10 straight, won three straight, lost five straight, won two straight ←- start of 2021
• Bears defense has allowed 20 pts or less in four consecutive games.
  Over last four years in this spot, they are 1-3 SU/ATS and 3-5 ATS in this spot since 2019.
• Since start of last season, Bears are 9-23 SU .. 4-3 SU at night, 5-20 SU not at night.
• Fields in night games: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS | all other times: 6-22 SU, 9-18-1 ATS
• Bears are 8-7 to the over this year (T-9th best mark in NFL) and 18-14 to the over since start of last season, second best mark in the NFL. (Lions are 20-12)
• Montez Sweat arrived in Chicago for Week 9. Bears are 2nd in EPA/play defense in Week 9 on, they were 30th Weeks 1-8.
  Bears had 10 sacks Weeks 1-8, fewest in NFL. They already have 17 since with two games to go.
• Bears week before they face the Packers in Green Bay: 3-6 SU, 3-5-1 ATS last decade
• The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going a pathetic 8-20-1 ATS vs the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,238 – that is the least profitable team vs. their own division in the NFL in that span.
  CHI is 21-31-1 ATS vs. other divisions since 2019
• Fields is 9-27 SU, 13-22-1 ATS in his career.
  He is the 4th-worst of all QBs in ATS profit since he entered the league (97. Mac, 96. Carr, 95. Wilson, 94. Fields).
• Fields 4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS vs. NFC North
  Fields vs. all other divisions: 6-16 SU, 8-13-1 ATS
  Bears are 21-31-1 ATS vs. non-NFC North divisions since 2019, third-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Jaguars, Falcons (2nd-worst).
• Fields is 15-20-1 1H ATS in his career.
  Since he was drafted in 2021, he is the 10th-worst QB of 97 total.
• Teams who are listed as a favorite after winning just four games or less the season prior are just 216-256-14 ATS (45.8%) last 20 years, including 41-51-2 ATS since 2019.
  Week 17: CHI, IND, HOU
• When Bears opponents score more than 20 pts vs. a Justin Fields-Bears team, they are 21-0 SU. All 9 Fields wins have come with opponents scoring 20 pts or less.
• Never had 4,000 yard passer; 14 straight seasons without QB starting every game; one pro bowl QB since 1985 (trubisky, 2018)
• Chicago is 8-14-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall and they are 29-51-2 ATS over the last five seasons – worst mark in the NFL

Bears sacks in the first nine games: 10
Bears sacks in the past six games: 17
Bears INTs in the first nine games: 6
Bears INTs in the past six games: 12

---

---

Titans at Texans | Sunday, Dec. 31

1:00pm ET | FOX

HOU -4 | 44

Titans

• Titans have now gone 34 straight games without scoring 30 points.
  Longest active streak in the NFL and longest streak in franchise history
  NYG streak of 43 straight games was last one broken this high in 2022.
• Mike Vrabel is 38-29 SU in Sept, Oct & Nov. in his career (17-18 SU in Dec. on).
• Titans under Vrabel vs. Texans: 6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS
  1-5 in last six ATS
• How do Vrabel’s Titans teams close seasons?
  Games 1-15: 49-41 SU, 45-42-3 ATS
  Games 16 on: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS
• Vrabel as a dog: 26-28 SU, 30-23-1 ATS – including 26-15-2 ATS when the spread is +3 or higher.
  Home dog: 12-10 SU, 12-9-1 ATS
  Road dog: 14-18 SU, 17-14-1
• In 6 seasons with Titans, Vrabel has never finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog (5-6-1 ATS this season).
• Vrabel off a SU loss before facing AFC South: 6-6 SU/ATS
• Vrabel after Titans score 17 pts or less: 17-17 SU, 15-17-2 ATS
  Lost five of lat six SU in this spot
• Vrabel is 14-11-2 ATS as an underdog off of a SU loss. He’s covered 5-3-1 in his last 9 games in this spot.
• Against divisional opponents, Vrabel is 19-15 SU, 17-17 ATS.
• In close spread games, Vrabel's team has performed well.
  Spread of 3 points or less: 21-20 SU, 19-19-3 ATS, including 4-4-1 ATS in that spot this season.
• Recently vs. AFC South: Since 2021, Vrabel is 8-8 SU/ATS. Dating back to last year the Titans have lost seven straight divisional games
• Will Levis career. 3-5 SU/ATS
  Home: 2-2 SU/ATS | Road: 1-3 SU/ATS
  Vs. AFC South: 0-3 SU/ATS | non-AFC South opp: 3-2 SU/ATS
• Levis is 1-7 straight up 2H and against the second half spread in his eight starts.
• Of 48 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this season, the Titans' rookie quarterback has a completion percentage of 61%, which is 45th of those 48 QBs. Only ones worse? DTR, Siemian and PJ Walker.
• Tannehill is 75-75-5 ATS in his career – 34-30-3 ATS w TEN, 41-45-2 ATS w/ MIA
  Overall, Tannehill excels earlier in the season:
  56-46-2 ATS Sept-Nov | 19-29-3 ATS in Dec. or later
• Tannehill is 32-22 against 1H spread last four years, third-best in the NFL behind Lamar and Goff.
  In that same span, he’s 23-30-1 against the 2H spread – ranked 104th of 109 QBs.
  With the Titans he’s 39-27-1 1H ATS, he was 41-46-1 1H ATS with Dolphins.
  Tannehill is 5-13-1 against 2H spread since the beginning of last season.
• Divisional games in December or later have had an edge to the under when played in the early window of games (1 p.m. ET). Divisional games played at 1 p.m. ET in Dec. or later are 226-170-9 (57.1%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: NO/TB, TEN/HOU, NE/BUF

---

---

Texans

• Last rookie HC and QB to make it to the playoffs? Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck with Colts in 2012.
• Texans are up to 8 SU wins this season, that is their most in a year in the last four seasons.
  2023: 8-7 SU | 2020-22: 11-38-1 SU
• Texans don’t play in primetime this season – 16 of 17 games all starting at 1pm EST, including remainder of games prior to Week 18.
• Texans vs. good defenses this season: 4-4 ATS vs. teams allowing 21 PPG or less. 3-3 ATS vs. teams allowing more than that.
  Vs defenses that allow less than 21 ppg, Texans are 4-4 SU/ATS
• Texans home vs. road this season
  Home: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS
  Road: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS
• Teams after facing the Browns this season: 6-9 SU, 7-8 ATS | after facing AFC North: 28-32 SU, 25-33-2 ATS
• Texans after allowing 30+ pts this season: 3-0 SU/ATS
  28+ pts: 3-0 SU/ATS
• Texans this season with CJ Stroud vs. Case Keenum
  Stroud: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS
  Keenum: 1-1 SU/ATS
• CJ Stroud currently is third in yards per game at 279. Rookies to lead the NFL in passing yards per game in NFL History – minimum 75 pct of team games played – Davey O’Brien – 120.4 in 1939 & Sammy Baugh – 102.5 in 1937
• Stroud has made 13 starts in his NFL career. He’s 5-2 ATS as an underdog and 1-5 ATS as a favorite.
  He’s excelled in the first half, going 8-5 1H ATS this season.
  In the 1H, Stroud is 6-1 ATS as a dog, 2-4 ATS as a favorite
  Stroud vs. AFC South: 1-2 SU/ATS
• Teams who are listed as a favorite after winning just four games or less the season prior are just 216-256-14 ATS (45.8%) last 20 years, including 41-51-2 ATS since 2019.
  Week 17: CHI, IND, HOU
• Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win percentage of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win percentage, are 64-95-5 ATS (40.3%) last 20 years
  Week 17: CLE, BUF, HOU, LAR, IND, ATL, TB, KC, DEN
• Over .500 SU teams with a negative avg. SU point differential in November or later are 147-180-14 ATS (45%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: HOU, JAC, IND, CIN, PIT, SEA

---

---

Raiders at Colts | Sunday, Dec. 31

1:00pm ET | CBS

IND -4 | 41.5

Raiders

• Still alive to win AFC West…
  Haven’t won division in 20 seasons – tied for third-longest streak in NFL (CLE 30, DET 29, NYJ 20)
• Raiders fade late in the season. Historically, the Raiders don’t win in November or later.
  Last 20 years, they’ve been over .500 SU in this window once (2016).
  In 2023, they are 4-3 SU in Nov. or later this season.
  They are 5-1-1 ATS in last seven games.
• The Raiders team total under is 11-4 this season – tied for the best record to the under in the NFL with Patriots and Chiefs.
• Aidan O’Connell is the 24th different Raiders starting QB over the last 20 years.
  Only 3 of those 24 are profitable ATS for the Raiders: Jason Campbell, Terrelle Pryor, and O’Connell (5-2-1 ATS)
• Raiders off a SU win since 2019: 14-15 SU, 16-13 ATS
  Raiders after beating AFC West opponent: Since 2020, 5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS
  Last 20 years: 13-31 SU, 18-26 ATS
  After facing Chiefs: 10-27 SU, 13-22 ATS | after beating Chiefs: 1-9 SU, 2-8 ATS
• Raiders defense has been very stingy lately.
  Allowed 21 pts or fewer in three straight: 9-6 SU, 11-4 ATS last four years
  Since Pierce took over: 4-3 SU, 5-1-1 ATS
• Josh Jacobs 2023 season vs 2022.
  2023: 3.5 Y/A, 6 TD, 34 1st downs, 805 yards
  2022: 4.9 Y/A, 12 TD, 93 1st download, 1,653 yards
• Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas
  Raiders at home in Vegas: 16-17 SU, 18-14-1 ATS
  On road/neutral: 14-19 SU, 14-19 ATS
• At 5-1-1 ATS, Antonio Pierce is already making Raiders history.
  3rd LV coach since 1990 over .500 ATS: Hue Jackson and Jon Gruden
  This season: Pierce: 5-1-1 ATS | McDaniels: 3-5 ATS
• Raiders under McDaniels vs. Pierce
  McDaniels: 3-5 SU/ATS
  Pierce: 4-3 SU, 5-1-1 ATS
• Pierce gets the big upset McDaniels never did:
  McDaniels, with the Raiders, was a dog of 7 points or more five times and lost all five game outright
  Pierce has been a dog of 14, 9, and 11 points, he is 2-1 ATS and 1-2 SU.
• Teams going road to road after beating Mahomes in KC: 3-8 SU/ATS
• Teams playing on the road on short rest, after playing on the road in their previous game are 40-69 SU, 48-56-5 ATS last 20 years. These teams are 8-15-1 ATS last three seasons and 22-35-5 ATS last decade.
  Week 17: DET, LV
• West coast teams traveling east has been a good omen lately.
  = PT teams have had success playing in ET recently, going 52-33-3 ATS (61.2%) since 2019.
  WK17: LV, LAR, SF
  = PT and MT teams have had success playing on the road in ET lately, they are 74-44-3 ATS (62.7%) since 2019 – over .500 ATS in all five seasons.
  WK17: LV, LAR, ARI, SF
• Fade teams off a SU win as an underdog, when they are on short rest for their next game. They are 88-123-10 ATS (41.7%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: BAL, LV
• Underdogs on road on short rest, after a SU win in their previous game as an underdog are 43-72-4 ATS (37.4%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: LV
• Ravens covered and won as underdogs last week and now flip the role as home favorites vs. Dolphins
  Teams to win as an underdog the previous week vs. team over .500 SU and then face a team over .500 SU again are 102-127-6 ATS (44.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: BAL, LV, PIT
• Beware of the Colts and Seahawks. In the last 20 years, no two teams have been worse for teams to visit on a road trip. Teams on the 2nd leg or later of a road trip, playing in Seattle or Indy, are 27-77 SU (26%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: LV

---

---

Colts

• Colts streak of 19 consecutive games with a takeaway was broken against the Falcons in Week 16. Miami now has the longest streak at 9 games.
• Colts are 11-4 to the team total over – tied for the most team total overs by any team this season with the Browns.
  Colts went 5-12 team total overs last season
• Still Minshew time in Indy. Minshew is 8-13 SU, 9-12 ATS in “toss up” games – a spread of 4 or less
  Minshew is 7-15 SU in his last 22 starts. He’s 9-13 ATS in his last 22 starts.
• Minshew is 5-10 SU vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or less on the season.
  He is 8-12 SU, 9-11 ATS vs. defenses allowing more than 21 PPG
• Minshew has made six starts where his opponent is on short rest since 2020 and his teams are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS. Overall he is 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS in this spot.
• Here is how Colts QBs stack up this season (ranks min. 50 QB plays; of 55 QBs)
  Minshew: 29th EPA/play, 32nd success rate, 33rd comp%
  Richardson: 23rd EPA/play, 31st success rate, 48th comp%
• Colts defense has had some bad performances this season.
  Colts after allowing 28+ pts this year: 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS
• Teams who are listed as a favorite after winning just four games or less the season prior are just 216-256-14 ATS (45.8%) last 20 years, including 41-51-2 ATS since 2019.
  Week 17: CHI, IND, HOU
• Colts got Jonathan Taylor back in the mix in Week 16 against the Falcons.
  Colts when Taylor gets at least 10 carries: 24-20-1 SU
  Fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play: 8-13 SU
• Minshew has found magic with Colts HC Shane Steichen. Prior to this season, Minshew had never won three straight games. Minshew and the Colts rattled off four-straight and have won five of their last seven to find themselves second in the AFC South and currently in the final spot of the AFC Playoffs. (There are four teams in the AFC at 8-7)
• Minshew has faced a team above .500 SU in his career ten times, his teams are 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS.
  Minshew vs. teams .500 SU or worse career: 11-13 SU, 12-12 ATS
• Minshew success as Colts QB: 6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS
• Colts are 6-5 SU playing a backup QB in Minshew this year. Between 2017-22, IND was 4-14 SU with a backup.
  Colts QBs have struggled in the back up role. They are 10-19 SU (15-14 ATS) since 2017. Colts backup 2017-22: 4-14 SU, 8-10 ATS. In 2023: 6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS.
• When Minshew’s opponent scores more than 20 pts, he is now 2-18 SU after losing to the Falcons last week.
• Minshew is 9-11 SU when he throws at leas two passing TDs in a game in his career.
• Colts had the fourth-worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 100-1 entering the season (ARI, TB, HOU, IND).
  Their third time at 100-1 or higher since 2000 (2023, 2017, 2012).
  Not to mention, their win total of 6.5 was their lowest since 2012.
  Colts are 8-7 SU this year entering Week 17.
• Minshew as favorite vs. underdog
  Favorite: 8-4 SU/ATS
  Underdog: 6-17 SU, 9-14 ATS
• Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win percentage of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win percentage, are 64-95-5 ATS (40.3%) last 20 years
  Week 17: CLE, BUF, HOU, LAR, IND, ATL, TB, KC, DEN
• Tough to play off a party city. Last five years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 104-143-8 ATS (42.1%).
  Week 17: DAL, IND, WAS
• Over .500 SU teams with a negative avg. SU point differential in November or later are 147-180-14 ATS (45%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: HOU, JAC, IND, CIN, PIT, SEA
• Good teams who lost and scored fewer than 14 points in their last game tend to cover in their next game. Teams over .500 SU, who scored less than 14 points in a loss are 106-82-6 ATS (56.4%) last ten years.
  Week 17: JAC, IND, CIN

---

---

Panthers at Jaguars | Sunday, Dec. 31

1:00pm ET | CBS

JAC -3.5 | 37

Panthers

• Panthers haven't run one play in which they're leading in the 4th quarter. Both wins came on the final play of the game, when they were trailing. No team since at least 1991 has gone an entire season without leading in the 4th quarter at the beginning of any play.
• Panthers since firing Frank Reich SU, ATS: 1-3 SU, 3-1-1 ATS
  Before: 1-10 SU, 2-8-1 ATS
• Panthers scored 30 pts last week against the Packers.
  Carolina last 3 years after scoring 28+ pts: 0-6 SU/ATS
• How do bad teams perform aftering big scoring outputs later in the season?
  Teams with a win percentage of 33% SU or worse in week 12, after scoring 28+ points are 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS since 2020
• Panthers are off a close loss against the Packers last week. Bad teams late in the season off close losses perform better than expected.
  Teams off a loss of 3 pts or less with a win pct below 30% on the season is 37-31-1 ATS last 20 years
  Week 17: CAR, WAS
• Panthers are 1 of 2 teams to be listed as underdogs in all of their games so far this season – with the Cardinals.
• Panthers are 10-5 against first quarter spread this season and 19-8 1Q ATS the past three seasons.
  CAR ATS by Q: 10-5 1Q | 4-11 2Q | 10-5 3Q | 9-6 4Q
  Panthers 1H ATS: 6-9 ATS
• Bryce Young is 2-12 SU so far this season. Since 2000, No. 1 overall QB picks are 64-132-2 SU in their first season.
• Panthers at home this season: 2-5 SU, 3-3-1 ATS
  Panthers have really struggled on the road recently. Panthers are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS on the road this season, failing to cover the spread by 6.31 PPG and losing by 12.25 PPG.
  Worst SU this season: CAR 0-8, ARI 1-7
  Worst ATS this season: CAR 2-6 ATS, NYG 3-6 ATS, TEN 2-5 ATS
  Panthers are 9-16 ATS last 3 seasons, the worst mark in the NFL
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 189-130-9 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 & 103-76–6 ATS (58%) last two years.
  Week 17: NYJ, LAC, PIT, ATL, CAR, NE

Sports betting will be available in North Carolina for the next Panthers season. Learn more about North Carolina sports betting and the various North Carolina betting apps expected to launch in 2024.

Highest Team O/U – Draft QB 1st Overall in WC Era (since 1990)
1992 Giants/Dave Brown – 9 (Supplemental Draft) (6-10 SU)
2023 Panthers/Bryce Young – 7.5 (2-12 SU)
2016 Rams/Jared Goff – 7.5 (4-12 SU)

---

---

Jaguars

• In his career as a starter, CJ Beathard is 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS at home.
• Jaguars home/road splits this season:
  Home: 2-5 SU/ ATS (7-9 ATS last 2 years)
  Away/Neutral: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS (11-7 ATS last 2 years)
• Jaguars have lost 4 consecutive games SU after starting 8-3 SU on the season.
  Jags are 3rd team last 20 years to lost 4 in a row and still be .500 SU or better this late into the season
  2022 MIA – L in WC
  2021 BAL – L in WC
• Good home favorites on a long losing streak.
  Teams above .500 SU who are home favorites on a losing streak of 3+ games are 16-8 SU and 11-13 ATS over the last 20 years
• Jaguars hot start vs. bad recent stretch compared.
  Jaguars started 8-3 ATS, 0-4 ATS since.
  Jaguars offense was 19th in EPA/play Weeks 1-12 and 20th since Week 13
  Jaguars offense was 11th in EPA/play Weeks 1-12 and 24th since Week 13
• Jaguars are 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games vs. teams above .500 SU over the last two seasons
  Over the last two seasons, Lawrence is 10-6 ATS in this spot, fifth-best QB in the NFL.
• Jaguars have 28 fumbles as a team this season – tied for the most in the NFL with Jets.
• Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite.
  Underdog: 32-26 ATS (6-4 ATS last 10 games)
  Favorite: 29-33 ATS
• Pederson ATS in his career: 61-59 ATS
  Sept-Nov: 37-40 ATS
  Dec on: 24-19 ATS
• Pederson after a bad offensive performance.
  Pederson’s teams are 13-15 SU, 15-13 ATS after scoring 17 or fewer points in their next outing.
• Bad Trevor Lawrence this season:
  Sam Howell has same number of pass TD (19), only four QBs have more INT than him, he’s taken the ninth-most sacks and he’s 20th in EPA/play, worse than Heinicke and Lock.
• Over .500 SU teams with a negative avg. SU point differential in November or later are 147-180-14 ATS (45%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: HOU, JAC, IND, CIN, PIT, SEA
• Good teams who lost and scored fewer than 14 points in their last game tend to cover in their next game. Teams over .500 SU, who scored less than 14 points in a loss are 106-82-6 ATS (56.4%) last 10 years.
  Week 17: JAC, IND, CIN

---

---

Rams at Giants | Sunday, Dec. 31

1:00pm ET | FOX

LAR -6 | 43.5

Rams

• Rams have scored 28+ points now in five straight games – longest active streak in NFL (Buccaneers are second with three)
  First time they’ve done that as a franchise since 2018 (six straight)
  Nine is the longest such streak for any team in the last five years (Bucs)
• Matthew Stafford is 7-15-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season. Last five years, he is 24-42-2 2H ATS, the third-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Justin Herbert.
• Stafford can’t hold a lead.
  Stafford leading at half this season: 2-5 2H ATS
  He’s 33-59-2 2H ATS after leading at half, including 9-22-1 2H ATS since 2019
  He’s 48-47-6 2H ATS when trailing at halftime.
• 2023 is the first season Stafford will finish above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 – he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, worst season since 2013. Stafford is 9-4-1 ATS this season.
• Stafford can’t beat good teams. He’s 33-67 SU and 38-60-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU – least profitable QB SU and ATS in this spot last 20 years.
  He is 10-10 SU and 8-12 ATS with Rams in this spot.
  When Stafford faces a team .500 SU or worse he is 60-37 SU and 50-43-4 ATS.
• Rams are 4-11 SU and 7-6-2 ATS in their last 15 road games dating back to last season.
• Giants are on short rest this week vs. Rams
  McVay & Stafford vs. teams on short rest: 3-0 SU/ATS
  McVay career SU, ATS in that spot: 13-5 SU/ATS
• Puka Nacua season update.
  He has 96 rec, 1,327 rec yds, 5 TD, 13.8 Y/rec
  Only two players have recorded 100 rec in their first season: 2021 Waddle, 2003 Boldin.
  The record for rec yds in first season in Super Bowl era is 1,455 by Chase in 2021.
• McVay coming off a night game: 20-12 SU, 16-16 ATS | after a night game SU win: 13-7 SU, 10-10 ATS
• McVay vs teams below .500 ATS this season: 2-1 | in his career: 29-20-2
• When Stafford faces a “good” team at home (above .500 SU), he’s 20-34 ATS, including 9-18 ATS since 2017 and 4-8 ATS with the Rams.
  What about a bad team at home? 25-19 ATS, including 12-7 ATS since 2017 and 6-3 ATS with the Rams
• Stafford is 21-21-2 ATS with Rams – eighth-least profitable QB for franchise last 20 years:
• McVay is 14-6 SU, 13-5-2 ATS coaching in Eastern Time Zone.
• McVay is 14-6 SU, 13-5-2 ATS coaching in Eastern Time Zone.
  Last 20 years, no PT coach has performed better ATS than McVay in ET.
• Sean McVay’s teams tend to perform better early in the season vs. late.
  Sept/Oct: 36-17 SU
  Nov. on: 39-31 SU
• McVay is 26-17-1 ATS vs. NFC West & 38-38-3 ATS vs. all other divisions
  ARI: 12-2-1 ATS | SEA: 10-5 ATS (22-7-1 ATS combined)
  SF: 4-10 ATS
• This line opened Rams +3 on the lookahead and now lists them -6 and higher vs. Giants..
  McVay is 1 of a few coaches who usually win games when the line moves towards them (ex. -5 to -7).
  McVay is 48-19 SU and 37-27-3 ATS when the line moves towards his teams.
• Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win percentage of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win percentage, are 64-95-5 ATS (40.3%) last 20 years
  Week 17: CLE, BUF, HOU, LAR, IND, ATL, TB, KC, DEN
• West coast teams traveling east has been a good omen lately.
  = PT teams have had success playing in ET recently, going 52-33-3 ATS (61.2%) since 2019.
  WK17: LV, LAR, SF
  = PT and MT teams have had success playing on the road in ET lately, they are 74-44-3 ATS (62.7%) since 2019 – over .500 ATS in all five seasons.
  WK17: LV, LAR, ARI, SF
• Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success going 113-72-3 1H ATS (61.1%) since 2017.
  Week 17: NO, BAL, LAR, SF, BUF

---

---

Giants

• According to point differential, Giants are the worst team in the NFL, with a -157 this season
  In 2020 and 2021, they finished 31st in scoring
• It's been a very different season for the Giants under Brian Daboll.
  They went 7-0 ATS after a SU loss last season. This year, they are 4-5 ATS
• The Giants are 10-5 to the under this season – one of 10 teams 10-5 to the under this year, best in NFL
• Giants are 44-21-2 to the under since 2020 – by far the best mark to the under in the NFL
• Under in Giants home games is 23-7-1 since 2020 and 5-1 this season – Chiefs 7-1, CAR and CLE 6-1
  Giants have scored 61 total points in six games at home this year.
• Daboll ATS by QB as coach
  Tyrod: 2-0-1 ATS | Jones: 13-11 ATS | Webb: 1-0 ATS | DeVito: 4-2 ATS
• Daboll led the Giants to an impressive 11-3 ATS record as an underdog in Year 1, going 7-6 straight-up (SU) in those spots.
  2023 hasn’t been as kind. Giants are 4-10 SU and 6-7-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
• QB comparison – min. 100 plays as QB for ranks (of 48 QBs).
  Taylor: 23rd EPA/play, comp% 14th, seventh avg. depth per target
  Jones: 43rd EPA/play, comp% 10th, 39th avg. depth per target
  Devito: 42nd EPA/play, comp% 19th, 44th avg. depth per target
• Daboll career with Giants.
  Home: 9-5-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 11-8 ATS
  Favorite: 3-3 ATS | Underdog: 17-10-1 ATS
• Giants after facing Eagles under Daboll: 2-0 SU/ATS | After loss vs. NFC East team: 5-0-1 SU, 5-1 ATS
• Daboll career SU, ATS as a home dog: 5-4-1 SU, 6-3-1 ATS
• Since 2017, Giants are 9-41 SU in games played after the 1 p.m. ET window – least profitable team on the ML in the NFL.
  Giants are 28-36-1 SU playing at 1p ET or earlier in that span
• Giants QBs have been sacked 77 times this season through 15 games – the second-most by any team in NFL history behind the 1986 Eagles, who were sacked 99 times through 15 games.
  The record for sacks allowed in a single season is 104 by Eagles in 1986. No other team has broken 80.
• Taylor is 20-12-2 ATS as an underdog in his career and overall, he is 32-21-4 ATS in his career. In the last 20 years, Taylor is the 13th-most profitable QB ATS of 278 QBs.
• If the Giants trail at the half, they may be worth a bet. When Tyrod Taylor trails at the half, his teams are 17-8 against the second half spread. Since Taylor entered the league in 2015, he's the fourth-most profitable QB against second half spread when trailing at the half.
• Since 2015, teams who were underdogs of 13 or more points are 63-40-1 1H ATS (61.2%) in their next game
  Week 17: NYG, WAS
• Teams listed as 14+ point dogs in their previous game are 42-24 1H ATS (64.2%) in their next game since 2015.
  Week 17: NYG

---

---

Cardinals at Eagles | Sunday, Dec. 31

1:00pm ET | FOX

PHI -12.5 | 48

Cardinals

• Cardinals are one of two teams to be listed as underdogs in all of their games so far this season – with the Panthers.
• Teams with a win percentage of 40% or less, facing team with win percentage of 60% or more are 181-213-12 ATS (45.9%) when the game is played in November or later in the last decade.
  Week 17: NYJ, WAS, NE, ARI
• West coast teams traveling east has been a good omen lately.
  = PT and MT teams have had success playing on the road in ET lately, they are 74-44-3 ATS (62.7%) since 2019 – over .500 ATS in all five seasons.
  WK17: LV, LAR, ARI, SF
• Cardinals are one of two teams to be listed as underdogs in all of their games so far this season – with the Panthers.
• Welcome back, Kyler Murray. Cardinals went the first nine games of the season without being a public side once. Four of the first six weeks with Murray, the public had bought into Arizona and going 3-1 ATS as the public side and now 0-2 ATS when not listed as the public side.
• How does Murray perform based on his prep/rest?
  Short rest: 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS
  Normal rest: 20-18 SU, 21-15-2 ATS
  Extended rest + Week 1: 7-10 ATS
• Cardinals since 3-0 ATS start: 2-10 SU, 4-8 ATS
• Cardinals offense has been a rollercoaster this season. From Joshua Dobbs to Clayton Tune now to Murray, lets see if they can see some consistency.
  First three games: 11th offensive EPA/play, 15th off. success rate
  Next six games: 31st offensive EPA/play, 30th in off. success rate
  Week 10 on: 16th offensive EPA/play, 23rd off. success rate
• Since Kyler Murray arrived in Arizona, he is 27-36-1 SU. All other QBs are 4-14 SU.
• Cardinals defense stinks.
  Pressure rate: 17.4% (31st)
  Opp. first downs: 334 (32nd)
  EPA/play on D: 32nd
  Opp. success rate: 32nd
• Kyler Murray has had success as an underdog and on the road and struggled as a favorite and at home.
  Dog: 23-15-2 ATS | Fav: 9-15 ATS
  Road: 19-10-2 ATS | Home: 13-20 ATS
• Kyler has had a lot of success as a road underdog: 15-6-2 ATS (+$801)
• Here is how Kyler has performed based on the strength of the opponent.
  Vs. above .500 SU teams: 11-16-2 ATS
  Vs. below .500 SU teams: 16-11 ATS
• Teams to play three cold weather games this year: PIT, CHI, PHI on road in December
  Last 20 years, Cardinals are 15-24 SU in 50-degree or colder weather
• Trey McBride has emerged as the leading target for Cardinals QBs
  Over first seven games – 21 targets
  Last eight – 66 targets (Two 100+ yard games over that stretch)
• Largest Murray Underdog: Has been a double-digit dog four times in his career, all coming in his rookie season – 2019. 0-4 SU, 2-1-1 ATS.
  +10 @ 49ers: (L, 36-36)
  +10.5 vs 49ers: (L, 25-28) <- Murray largest home dog
  +12.5 @ Saints: (L, 31-9)
  +13 @ Ravens (L, 23-17)

---

---

Eagles

• Eagles have already clinched a playoff berth.
  How Eagles can clinch NFC West: Eagles win + Cowboys Loss
• Eagles are 8-6-1 ATS this season – Best ATS Seasons, Teams to Make Super Bowl Last 20 Years: '22 CIN (12-4 ATS), '04 NE (11-3-2 ATS), '08 NYG (12-4 ATS), '17 NE (11-5 ATS), '13 SF (11-5 ATS), '11 GB (11-5 ATS).
• Eagles snapped a streak of three consecutive losses with a close win over NYG.
  Their first three-game losing streak since 2021
• Eagles have just two wins of 10+ points this season. Fewest ever for a Super Bowl winner is three done twice (1982 Washington, 2015 Denver).
  10 of the past 11 Super Bowl champs have had six or more such games
  Teams to win the Super Bowl after having a 3+ game losing streak same season: 2021 LAR, 2012 BAL, 2011 NYG, 2010 NO, 2005 PIT, 2000 BAL
• When the Eagles are trailing, they can get back in the game quick.
  Since December 2021, the Eagles are 8-6 SU in their last 14 games when trailing by 10 points or more at any point, including 4-2 SU this season.
  All other teams are 110-555-2 SU (17%) in that spot since the start of 2021.
• The massive impact of Lane Johnson
  Without him: 14-23 SU
  With him: 95-55-1 SU
• Hurts is 21-12 against the first half spread over the last two seasons. Hurts is just 2-6 1H ATS in his last eight starts.
• Eagles are 16-7 1H ML in last 23. Hurts is 29-21-3 1H ML in his career.
  Since start of last season, Eagles are 24-10-1 1H ML — Second most 1H ML wins in NFL behind the Ravens (25)
• Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
  Home: 17-8-1 ATS (third of 96 QBs since 2020)
  Road/Neutral: 10-16-1 ATS (98th of 100 QBs since 2020)
  All other PHI QBs in the last 20 years are 71-82-1 ATS at home and 81-70-2 ATS road/neutral.
• Hurts doesn’t love facing good offenses. Eagles are 10-12 SU vs. team scoring 24 PPG or more on the year and 23-5 SU under that mark.
• Hurts is just 8-8 SU, 6-10 ATS after a SU loss, including just 4-6 SU on road.
  Hurts after a SU win: 25-9 SU, 19-13-2 ATS
• At home as a favorite, Hurts is 18-1 SU. His only loss was to Taylor Heinicke.
  Hurts is 1-6 SU as a home dog in his career.
• Biggest favorite of Hurts’ NFL career.
  -17: vs NYG (W, 22-16)
  -14: vs NYG (W, 33-25)
  -14: vs HOU (W, 29-17)
• When two defenses, who allow 24+ PPG with a total below 50 in November or later, under is 155-114-6 (57.6%).
  Week 17: ARI/PHI, LAC/DEN
• When two bad defenses play. Go under. When both teams allow 24 PPG or more, the under is 62-36 (63.3%) last three seasons
  Week 17: ARI/PHI, LAC/DEN

---

---

Saints at Buccaneers | Sunday, Dec. 31

1:00pm ET | FOX

TB -2.5 | 42.5

Saints

• The Saints rollercoaster took a down turn last week in the loss and fail cover vs. Rams.
  Saints ATS recently: 4-11-1 in last 16 dating back to 2022
  Saints are 2-5 ATS at home this season. Only Washington has zero ATS wins at home this season (0-5-1 ATS)
• Road Warriors. Here are the Saints ML record over the past few seasons, home vs. road.
  Last three: Home: 10-12 SU | Road: 12-13 SU
  Last five: Home: 23-18 SU | Road: 25-16 SU
• In his career, Dennis Allen is 22-46 SU. His 32.3% win pct is 5th-worst among all head coaches in the Wild Card era.
• Allen-coached teams are just 15-21-1 ATS vs. teams who are under .500 SU on the season and just 4-13-1 ATS vs. teams who are over .500 SU on the season. Allen is under .500 ATS vs. teams who are over .500 SU in all five of his seasons as a head coach.
• Saints have officially gone under their preseason win total of 9.5
  Dennis Allen-coached teams are 0-5 toward the over on their preseason win total.
  Entering the year, Saints didn’t face a team with under 20-1 Super Bowl odds and still went under. Saints went under their win total last year for 1st time since 2015.
• Allen-coached teams are just 4-16-2 ATS coming off a SU win in their last game.
  Last 20 years, he’s ranked 141st of 143 coaches ATS coming off a win.
  Off a SU loss, Dennis Allen is: 14-27 SU, 19-22 ATS
• Allen is 6-14-2 ATS vs. divisional opponents in his career.
  4-7-1 ATS with Raiders
  2-7-1 ATS with Saints
  His 6-14-2 ATS mark is 146th of 147 coaches in profitability last 20 years and among 118 coaches to coach 20+ divisional games since 1990, Allen’s 26.3% ATS win percentage is worst of all 118 coaches.
• Carr vs. divisional opponents.
  Saints: 2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS
  Raiders: 23-29 SU, 28-24 ATS
• Carr vs. Bucs with Saints: 2023 -4.5: L, 26-9
• Allen’s 7-4-2 ATS on extended rest during the regular season (not Week 1s).
• After 12 straight unders, the Saints are 5-4 to the over in their last nine games.
  They are 10-5 to the under this year, 10-5 last 15, 15-5 in last 20 and 31-18 since start of 2021 season.
• Dennis Allen is a bit better with some prep.
  Short rest: 1-9 SU, 2-8 ATS
  Normal rest: 12-28 SU, 14-26 ATS
  Extended rest + Week 1: 9-9 SU, 9-7-2 ATS
  He’s 13-37 SU, 16-34 ATS on short or normal rest as a head coach
• Allen is 25-41-2 ATS in his career as a coach.
  Allen’s 25-41-2 ATS mark is third-worst for any coach last 20 years:

1. Jon Gruden, 148. Mike Shanahan, 147. Dennis Allen

• In games where Carr is a favorite or a small underdog, his teams have struggled.
  As favorite or underdog of 3 points or less: 38-52-3 ATS
  Dog of more than 3 points: 34-31 ATS
• Derek Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime now for the fifth time in his career this year, and is still struggling to cover the spread. 26-34-2 ATS in those previous 4 seasons and 4-10-1 ATS in 2023 with Saints.
  15: 8-8 ATS, 17: 5-8-2 ATS, 18: 6-10 ATS, 22: 7-8 ATS, 23: 4-10-1 ATS
• Saints were listed as home underdogs against the Lions, a better spot for Derek Carr.
  Favorite: 20-37-2 ATS (worst of all QBs last 20 years)
  Underdog: 52-46-1 ATS
• Carr is 22-37-2 ATS on the road/neutral since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (123 of 123 QBs). He’s 24-25-1 ATS at home in that span.
• Carr is facing a defense allowing 21 PPG or more on the season with the Buccaneers – he is 35-58-3 ATS in games vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or more. Of the 262 QBs in Bet Labs database over the last 20 years, Carr is the least profitable ATS in this spot.
• Derek Carr covers vs. good defenses and tends to lose ATS vs. bad defenses. Based on how many PPG opposing defenses give up against Carr:
  Fewer than 21 PPG: 31-21 ATS
  21 PPG or more: 35-58-3 ATS
• Teams to travel from PT to ET have had 1H success going 113-72-3 1H ATS (61.1%) since 2017.
  Week 17: NO, BAL, LAR, SF, BUF

---

---

Buccaneers

• Bucs have won four consecutive games after starting 4-7 SU on the year.
  Since 2020, teams that have won three-straight are 33-19-1 SU, 28-25 ATS in December or later
• Baker Mayfield is 26-21 ATS as an underdog and 13-25-1 ATS as a favorite
• Baker had been an under machine since start of last year, 16-9 in that span, including 13-7 in his last 20 starts.
  He and the Bucs had hit four straight overs averaging 25.25 over that stretch but reverted back to the under against the Jaguars
• Bucs home vs. road SU, ATS this season:
  Home: 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS
  Away: 4-4 SU, 7-1 ATS
• After Baker winning his last game by double-digits: 7-12 SU, 10-9 ATS.
  Had lost last six games outright prior to Jaguars win.
  Baker after back-to-back wins by double-digits: 2-0 SU/ATS since 2020. 0-2 SU/ATS prior to that.
• Baker on a winning streak: 9-8 ATS career and 2-1 ATS with the Bucs
• Baker Mayfield is 39-46-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $911 (268th of 284 QBs in the last 20 years).
• Baker has thrown at least two TDs and zero INT six times this season … five have come on the road. That is most such road games for any QB this season.
  Since 1990, six such road games is the record for any QB, done by Russell Wilson (2014), Tom Brady (2016, 20), Aaron Rodgers (2020, 21) and Kirk Cousins (2021).
• Bowles in his career as HC is horrible SU as a dog: 17-42 SU and 14-40 in last five seasons.
  2023: 5-6 SU
  2022: 0-4 SU
  2018: 3-10 SU
  2017: 4-11 SU
  2016: 3-9 SU
• Todd Bowles is one of the worst coaches in the NFL as an underdog.
  17-42 SU, 26-30-3 ATS as an underdog (25-16 SU as a favorite)
• Bucs and Baker upset the Packers last week. Can they win again? Baker has played 17 career games off of a SU win as an underdog, his teams are 6-11 SU and 8-9 ATS in their next game after pulling the upset. He doesn’t do the streak thing.
• Baker is 15-24-1 ATS at home in his career. He’s never finished a season above .500 ATS at home – He’s ranked 117th of 119 QBs since he entered the league.
• Baker as a favorite and underdog vs. divisional opponents
  16-13 SU, 12-17 ATS total
  Favorite: 9-5 SU, 3-11 ATS
  Dog: 7-8 SU, 9-6 ATS
• Baker is 3-11 ATS as a favorite in his career vs. division opponents. He had lost 8 consecutive starts ATS in this spot dating back to 2019 until his win over the Falcons.
• Mike Evans has historically struggled vs. Marshon Lattimore. He’s out this week.
  Evans has one 100 yard receiving game vs. NO in 19 games. He’s logged at least five receptions just four times. He hasn’t caught a TD vs. NO in four straight games.
• It’s always been a struggle for Tampa vs. New Orleans. They are 3-8 ATS in their last eleven meetings vs. Saints. Their least profitable opponent ATS since 2019.
• Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win percentage of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win percentage, are 64-95-5 ATS (40.3%) last 20 years
  Week 17: CLE, BUF, HOU, LAR, IND, ATL, TB, KC, DEN
• Divisional games in December or later have had an edge to the under when played in the early window of games (1 p.m ET). Divisional games played at 1 p.m. ET in Dec. or later are 226-170-9 (57.1%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: NO/TB, TEN/HOU, NE/BUF

---

---

49ers at Commanders | Sunday, Dec. 31

1:00pm ET | FOX

SF -14 | 49.5

49ers

• 49ers have clinched the NFC West.
  SF can clinch No. 1 seed & homefield with:
  Win and PHI, DAL, DET loss
• 49ers have dominated their opponents in wins.
  49ers now have eight wins of 16 or more points this season (tied with Dallas for most this season). Eight wins of 16+ pts through 14 games is most since 2007 Patriots.
  Ten wins of 10+ pts through 15 games for 49ers is most since 2007 Patriots.
  The record for 10+ pt wins for a season is 13 in Super Bowl era by 1999 Rams.
• Purdy MVP movement.
  Brock Purdy entered Week 16 as the odds-on favorite to win the award. He is now 12-1 and fourth in odds.
• 49ers are 1-2 SU/ATS off a loss this season and are just 8-6 ATS in that spot last three seasons.
  Shanahan is 23-23-1 ATS off of a SU loss, just 7-11-1 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite
• 49ers after scoring fewer than 20 pts under Shanahan: 20-15 ATS – just 1-3 ATS this season.
• Dolphins offense is no longer the NFL leader in YPP after starting at a historical pace. 49ers lead by a small margin now.
  Highest YPP thru 15 games in SB era:
  2000 Rams: 7.01, 2018 Chiefs: 6.80, 2004 Colts: 6.78, 2023 49ers: 6.75
  Dolphins at 6.57 this season.
• When their stars are healthy. When Deebo and CMC are starting, 49ers are 19-3 SU, 15-7 ATS
• 1 of 2 teams this season still favored in every game: KC, SF
• Purdy is 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS at home, just 8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS on road.
• In games Christian McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 23-5 SU, 18-10 ATS. In those 28 games, McCaffrey has 34 total TDs.
• 49ers record this season SU, ATS
  Home: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
  Road: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS
• Christian McCaffrey and Raheem Mosters have 21 TDs this season. The Jets as a team have 19.
• 49ers are 20-11 ATS as a road dog under Kyle Shanahan. As a road favorite, SF is just 15-14 ATS.
• Under Kyle Shanahan, the San Francisco 49ers are 0-38 when trailing by 8 or more points in the fourth quarter.
• Kyle Shanahan is 1-32 when trailing by 3+ points entering the fourth quarter.
• Purdy in October or later at Iowa State and with 49ers: 25-12 SU at Iowa St and 15-5 SU with the 49ers (40-17 SU)
• Kyle Shanahan vs NFC West: 24-18-1 ATS | vs. non-divisional opp: 41-38 ATS
• Brock Purdy has 4,050 passing yards on just 416 passes this year.
  He's averaging 9.7 yards per attempt, is the 2nd-highest for any QB, min. 100 att, since 1966 behind only Kurt Warner in 2000 (9.9).
• Biggest Spreads for Kyle Shanahan with 49ers
  -15, 2023 vs. ARI (W, 28-16)
  -15, 2023 vs SEA (W, 28-16)
  -14.5, 2022 vs ARI (W, 38-13)
  -14, 2023 vs. NYG (W, 23-7)
• Biggest SF road favorites since 2000
  2023 vs. Cardinals: -12.5 (W, 45-29)
  2012 vs Rams: -12.5 (W, 34-27)
  2019 vs Cardinals: -10.5 (W, 28-25)
• Last time 49ers closed -13.5 or higher on the road was 1997 in New Orleans with Steve Young. (closed -13.5).
  Dec. 10, 1995 was last game higher than that. Closed -14.5 in Carolina.
• West coast teams traveling east has been a good omen lately.
  = PT teams have had success playing in ET recently, going 52-33-3 ATS (61.2%) since 2019.
  WK17: LV, LAR, SF
  = PT and MT teams have had success playing on the road in ET lately, they are 74-44-3 ATS (62.7%) since 2019 – over .500 ATS in all five seasons.
  WK17: LV, LAR, ARI, SF
• Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success going 113-72-3 1H ATS (61.1%) since 2017.
  Week 17: NO, BAL, LAR, SF, BUF
• Not every day the NFL makes a west coast team travel to play on the east coast on short rest.
  The Chargers, Seahawks, Rams, Raiders, Cardinals and 49ers have been in this spot 23 times in the last 20 years and they are 8-14-1 ATS (36.4%).

---

---

Commanders

• Ron Rivera has been an NFL head coach for 12 seasons. His teams have finished .500 or worse in nine of 12.
• Commanders have benched Sam Howell and turned the page to Jacoby Brissett.
  Jacoby Brissett has played five full drives with the Commanders. All five drives ended in a touchdown.
  Sam Howell is fourth in the NFL in completions this season, 11th in passing yards, 15th in pass TDs, 13th in first down completions – all while taking the most sacks of any QB in the NFL.
  Sam Howell has been sacked 60 times so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. The NFL record for sacks taken in a season is 76, set by David Carr for the Texans in 2002, their first year in the NFL.

Most Times Sacked as QB — Through 15 Games
73 — David Carr, 2002
68 — David Carr, 2005
67 – Randall Cunningham, 1986 (14 games)
61 – Steve Beuerlein, 2000
60 — Sam Howell, 2023

Most Turnovers This Season
T-1. Trevor Lawrence, Sam Howell – 19

• Ron Rivera full game O/U by his game status…
  Home dog: 23-18-1 under
  Home favorite: 31-30-2 under
  Road favorite: 21-16-1 under
  Road dog: 42-27 over
• Ron Rivera biggest spread of his career.
  +14.5, 2020 vs Ravens (L, 31-17)
  +13.5, 2015 vs Seahawks (L, 31-17)
  +13, 2023 vs Cowboys (L, 45-10)
• Big home dogs vs teams on short rest.
  Home teams on short rest cash at just a 47.6% ATS rate last 20 years.
  Home dogs on short rest cash at just 46.6% ATS rate.
  Home dogs of 7 pts or more on short rest are 27-32-3 ATS (45.8%) last 20 years
• The dog is strong in Ron Rivera. He is 62-46-3 ATS as an underdog and 47-53-2 ATS as a favorite with Washington and Carolina.
  Most profitable coaches ATS as dog last 20 years: Tomlin, Harbough, Payton, Carroll, Rivera.
  Rivera is 22-18-2 ATS mark as a home dog.
• Rivera has had issues covering the 1H spread. Washington is 4-11 1H ATS this season and 29-47-2 1H ATS since 2019 – second worst coach 1H ATS in NFL behind Tomlin.
• Under in Commanders home games is 20-11-1 since 2020 – 5th-best in the NFL
  Unders for Commanders on the road: 17-16-1 since 2020
• In the last four seasons, Rivera-coached games are 37-27-2 to the under.
• Big home dogs are on a run. Home dogs of 7 or more:
  60-38-2 ATS (61.2%) since 2020.
  22-11-2 ATS since start of last year.
  55% ATS hit rate last 20 years
• Commanders ML? Tough trip across the country. Teams going from PT or MT to ET on short rest are 32-44 SU, 30-44-2 ATS last 20 years. These teams are 0-2 ATS this season and have lost six in a row ATS dating back to last year.
  Week 17: SF, BAL
• Commanders are off a close loss against the Jets last week. Bad teams late in the season off close losses perform better than expected.
  Teams off a loss of 3 points or less with a win percentage below 30% on the season is 37-31-1 ATS last 20 years
  Week 17: CAR, WAS
• Teams with a win percentage of 40% or less, facing team with win pct of 60% or more are 181-213-12 ATS (45.9%) when the game is played in November or later in the last decade.
  Week 17: NYJ, WAS, NE, ARI
• Tough to play off a party city. Last five years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 104-143-8 ATS (42.1%).
  Week 17: DAL, IND, WAS
• Since 2015, teams who were underdogs of 13 or more pts are 63-40-1 1H ATS (61.2%) in their next game
  Week 17: NYG, WAS

---

---

Steelers at Seahawks | Sunday, Dec. 31

4:05pm ET | FOX

SEA -4.5 | 40.5

Steelers

• Steelers were the first team since 1933, when the NFL began tracking rushing and receiving statistics, to be outgained in each of their first eight games and still have a winning record – they did it through 10 games.
  Since Week 11, PIT is 21st in total yards with just a 2-3 SU record.
• Steelers offense last week: Mason Rudolph threw for 290 yds and two TDs. Steelers rushed for 113 yards and two TDs
  Matt Canada in Pittsburgh: 45 games, zero games with 400 yards of offense, two games with 30 points.
  The Steelers played 45 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense.
  Eddie Faulkner comparison: Steelers are 23rd in EPA/play offense since firing Canada. One game of 400 yards or more. One game of 30+ points.
• Steelers offense recently…
  Steelers with Canada: 16.6 PPG – 6-4 SU record
  Pittsburgh since firing Canada: 18.2 PPG – 2-3 SU record
• Mason Rudolph SU/ATS: 6-4-1 SU and 8-3 ATS
  At home: 5-1-1 SU, 6-2 ATS
  Played five games in 2019 and went 4-1 SU/ATS
  One game since in 2021, 16-16 tie vs Lions
  Second most profitable QB under Tomlin behind Pickett
• Tomlin is 8-13 SU, 9-11-1 ATS in MT and PT time zones in his career with Steelers.
  Up until 2018, Tomlin was 3-11-1 ATS in this spot. Since 2019, he’s 6-0 ATS.
• Tomlin is 47-23-2 ATS as an underdog from Week 5 forward, including 39-33 SU on the moneyline. His ATS mark is the most profitable of all 140 coaches since 2005.
• Tomlin has had success vs. NFC in his career.
  He’s been .500 SU or better every year of his career.
  Tomlin is 46-25-1 SU, 40-32 ATS vs. NFC
  Steelers are 26-9-1 SU vs. NFC at home under Tomlin
• Mike Tomlin road unders. They are 82-60-1 (58%) as coach of the Steelers, best of any coach last 20 years. It is 57-26-1 (69%) last decade.
• Rest has been good for Tomlin. On extended prep, Steelers are 14-6-1 ATS since 2018, making Tomlin the best coach in the NFL ATS in that span.
  3-1 ATS this season and 9-3 ATS last three seasons
• Rudolph on extended rest: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS
• Steelers are 48-48 SU, 58-34-4 ATS as an underdog under Tomlin
  SU he’s second-most profitable last 20 years behind Tom Cable (+$2,573)
  ATS he’s most profitable last 20 years (+$2,147)
  Steelers haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog since 2016 and it's only happened twice under Tomlin.
  PIT is 5-4 SU, ATS as an underdog in 2023.
• Mason Rudolph has made 10 career starts. He's had multiple TD passes six times.
  Kenny Pickett has made 24 career starts. He's had multiple TD passes once.
• The Steelers are 10-2 in their last 12 one-score games and 12-3 over their last 15 one-score games. Even dating back to 2021, Pittsburgh is 22-9-1 in one-score games.
• 19 consecutive non-losing seasons (T-NE 2001-19 with 19 – Dallas has record; 21, 1965-85 under Landry). Currently 8-7 SU in 2023.
  16 under Tomlin to begin coaching career (NFL record)
• Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 38-26-3 ATS.
  Steelers under Tomlin without Big Ben or Pickett: 23-17-3 ATS
• Steelers are 32-50-1 1H ATS last five seasons under Tomlin, making him worst coach 1H ATS in that span, including 4-11 in 2023.
• Over the last two seasons, Steelers are 16-9 SU/ATS w/ TJ Watt, 1-6 SU w/o him (2-4-1 ATS).
• Since T.J. Watt’s first game in 2017, Steelers are 68-46-2 SU, 60-54-2 ATS.
  They’ve played without him for just 11 games. Pittsburgh is 1-10 SU, 4-6-1 ATS in those games.
  Which means they are 66-36-2 SU, 55-48-1 ATS with Watt.
• Steelers are going to a backup QB for the 29th time in the last decade this week.
  They are 15-12-1 SU/ATS in those games – If you remove the 14 games they had a backup start in 2019, they are 7-6-1 SU, 6-7-1 ATS with a backup last decade.
  Backup QBs: Mitchell Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, Devlin Hodges, Landry Jones, Michael Vick
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 189-130-9 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 & 103-76–6 ATS (58%) last two years.
  Week 17: NYJ, LAC, PIT, ATL, CAR, NE
• Ravens covered and won as underdogs last week and now flip the role as home favorites vs. Dolphins
  Teams to win as an underdog the previous week vs. team over .500 SU and then face a team over .500 SU again are 102-127-6 ATS (44.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: BAL, LV, PIT

---

---

Seahawks

• Seahawks are now 8-7 SU this season. They had a win total of 8.5 in the preseason and can go over this week.
  In Pete Carroll’s 13 years as head coach, the Seahawks are 8-4-1 toward the over on their win total – never won less than seven games
• Seahawks have just six fumbles as a team this season – fewest in the NFL by three ahead of the Bengals and Rams.
• Pete Carroll teams usually start slow before they get going…
  Carroll in Weeks 1 & 2: 11-16-1 ATS
  Carroll in Week 3 on: 114-94-8 ATS
• Pete Carroll is 57-40-3 ATS as an underdog. Carroll has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog in seven straight years leading up to this season (5-3 ATS in 2023)
  Seahawks as a favorite in 2023: 6-1 SU, 3-3-1 ATS
• Pete does well at home with Seahawks.
  72-29 SU at home w Russ and Geno
  11-7 SU at home w all other QBs
• Geno Smith is 22-17-2 ATS as a dog, but only 10-13-1 ATS as a favorite.
• Geno is just 4-8 ATS career when favored by over a FG
• Seahawks going EST to PST to play at home under Pete Carroll: 25-12 SU, 19-17-1
  ET to PT after a SU win under Carroll: 17-8 SU, 12-12-1 ATS
• Geno after a SU and ATS win: 5-8 SU, 5-7-1 ATS

---

---

Bengals at Chiefs | Sunday, Dec. 31

4:25pm ET | CBS

KC -6.5 | 45.5

Bengals

• Jake Browning gets the start again for the Bengals with Joe Burrow out for the season.
  During Burrow’s tenure, Bengals have went to a backup QB in starts with Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen and now Jake Browning. They’ve gone 5-7 SU, 6-5-1 ATS. Burrow is 36-22-1 ATS in his career.
  Since he was drafted, Burrow is the second-most profitable QB ATS in the NFL behind only Goff
  Browning has thrown 5 TD and 5 INT in his last three starts and taken seven sacks in his last two starts.
• Zac Taylor SU, ATS after facing the Steelers or Ravens: 10-9 SU, 9-9-1 ATS
  Won 6 of last 7 SU in in this spot
  Taylor SU, ATS after facing the Steelers: 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS
  Taylor SU, ATS after facing AFC North opponent: 15-11-1 SU/ATS
• Zac Taylor after scoring fewer than 14 pts: 5-11 SU, 9-6 ATS
  Taylor after a loss of 20+ pts: 3-7 SU, 6-4 ATS
• Bengals allowed 34 pts to the Steelers last week. After Cincinnati allows 30 pts or more in their previous game under Zac Taylor, they are 11-8 ATS, including 19-15-1 ATS after allowing 24 pts or more.
• CIN strange season. 1-3 start. Won four straight. Lost three straight. Won three straight. Lost to Steelers last week.
• Zac Taylor with and without Joe Burrow
  With: 34-24-1 SU, 36-22-1 ATS
  Without: 7-21 SU, 12-15-1 ATS
• Zac Taylor on extended prep/rest (8 days or more): 8-8-1 SU, 9-7-1 ATS
• Zac Taylor on a road trip (2nd game of b2b road games): 8-6-1 SU, 10-5 ATS
• Entering the season, this Cincinnati season had more expectations on it than most.
  Bengals had a win total of 11.5 in the preseason. Their first double-digit win total since 1989 (ends second-longest drought w/o double-digit win total in NFL – DET).
• Bengals had a league-low 49 points through four games. 1 out of 64 teams to score under 50 points in first four games have made the playoffs since 1990 (1992 Chargers)
• Zac Taylor has been abysmal on the road in the division, going 3-12 SU.
  Taylor is 15-12-1 SU on road vs all other divisions.
• Bengals are seventh team since 2002 to open season with two straight division losses.
  Previous six teams missed the playoffs: 2020 DET & MIA, 2019 WAS, 2017 CLE, 2013 MIN, 2003 SD
• Bengals are going from Pittsburgh to Kansas City on the road.
  Zac Taylor is 8-5-1 ATS when coaching on a road trip (2nd game or later), but 8-4-1 ATS with Burrow in that spot.
  Opposing teams on a road trip going to Kansas City are 2-14 SU with Mahomes on the other side.
• Over .500 SU teams with a negative avg SU point differential in November or later are 147-180-14 ATS (45%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: HOU, JAC, IND, CIN, PIT, SEA
• Good teams who lost and scored fewer than 14 points in their last game tend to cover in their next game. Teams over .500 SU, who scored less than 14 points in a loss are 106-82-6 ATS (56.4%) last 10 years.
  Week 17: JAC, IND, CIN
• Teams to lose by 20+ the week before, facing a team who didn’t, are 92-67-1 ATS (58%) since 2020.
  Week 17: CIN

---

---

Chiefs

• Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win percentage of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win percentage, are 64-95-5 ATS (40.3%) last 20 years
  Week 17: CLE, BUF, HOU, LAR, IND, ATL, TB, KC, DEN
• Teams to lose as a favorite of a TD or more in their previous game are 44-36-1 ATS (55%) last five years.
  Week 17: KC, DEN
• Chiefs went under their preseason win total.
  Chiefs are now 9-2 to their win total over in the last 11 years.
  Andy Reid win total results with KC/PHI: 9-2 over w/ KC | 9-4-1 over w/ PHI (18-6-1 overall to over)
• Mahomes is 35-22-1 to the under in his home starts. 15-3 to the under at home over the last two seasons, the most profitable home QB to under.
• Chiefs defense in Mahomes’ career (EPA/play)
  2023: 7th | 2022: 15th | 2021: 23rd | 2020: 19th | 2019: 18th | 2018: 28th
• 1 of 2 teams this season still favored in every game: KC, SF
• Chiefs second half unders have been the play…
  Second half unders are 13-2 in KC games this year
  4th quarter unders are 14-1 in KC games this year
• Mahomes has had 38 passes dropped so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, 7th-most in the NFL.
• Mahomes starts by point spread
  Favorite: 99 (48-49-2 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
  Home: 26-29-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 30-21-2 ATS
  1 p.m. ET: 14-17-2 ATS | After 1 p.m. slate: 41-33-1 ATS
  -10 or higher: 27 (11-14-2 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 82 (45-36-1 ATS)
  -3 or less/or dog: 29 (20-8-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 80 (36-42-2 ATS)
• Chiefs are 28-19-1 ATS after Mahomes throws an INT in his last game, 6-4-1 ATS this season.
• Mahomes is 12-7 ATS when the Chiefs are not listed as the public side and 44-42-3 ATS when he is listed as the public side.
• Mahomes is just 9-16 ATS after a SU win dating back to 2022, the least profitable QB in the NFL
  Mahomes after a SU loss in his career: 18-4 SU, 12-9-1 ATS
• When the Chiefs defense allows more than 20 points this season, KC is 0-4 SU/ATS, against the Lions, Broncos, Eagles and Packers. KC is 9-2 SU, 7-3-1 ATS when their defense allows 20 points or less.
• Mahomes is 11-4-1 ATS after scoring 20 pts or less in his last game.
  Mahomes is 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS for the Chiefs the game after scoring less than 20 points.
• Mahomes career based on rest
  Six days or less: 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS
  Seven days: 44-14 SU, 29-27-2 ATS
  Eight+ days: 24-8 SU, 15-16-1 ATS
• Mahomes is 38-9 SU in November and December in his career (50-12 SU in Nov, Dec & Jan).
  Mahomes after a SU loss in Nov. or later: 10-2 SU, 4-7-1 ATS (including 1-6-1 ATS in Dec. or later)
• Chiefs are 5-10 against the fourth quarter spread this season and 19-36 4Q ATS the last three seasons.
  Their 5-10 4Q ATS record is tied with Ravens for worst in the NFL
• Rashee Rice leads the Chiefs in ATTD profit this season at +9.5 units. Justin Watson led KC in ATTD profit last year (+15U).
• Chiefs are -10000 to win the AFC West right now. Chiefs have won the AFC West seven consecutive season – longest active division streak across four major sports – The longest run of division titles belongs to the New England Patriots with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019.

Longest NFL Division Title Streak NFL History
11 – 2009-19 NE
7 – 2016-23 KC
7 – 1973-79 STL

---

---

Chargers at Broncos | Sunday, Dec. 31

4:25pm ET | CBS

DEN -3.5 | 37.5

Chargers

• Chargers are on extended rest. Broncos are off a night game on Sunday Night Football.
  Teams on extended rest facing a team off a night game have an edge: 48-37-1 SU, 46-39-1 ATS last three seasons.
• Chargers had a win total of 8.5 and are now 5-10 SU this year. Their 5 wins is the fewest among the 19 teams with a total of 8.5 or higher.
• Chargers are 0-6 SU in games decided by 3 pts or fewer this season
  NFL record for such losses in a season is 7 by 1994 Oilers
• The Chargers have played 33 games since the start of last season, and 22 of them have finished within seven points.
  22 of the Chargers last 33 games have been decided by 7 pts or less dating back to the Week 18, 2021 Raiders loss.
• Chargers 2H ATS this season: 4-9-2
  Staley 2H ATS career: 14-31-4
• Easton Stick gets the start for the Chargers on Sunday again. He is just the 4th different starting QB for the Chargers since 2006 — the fewest of any NFL team in that span
• Bad teams on extended rest playing in Denver: 13-20 SU, 14-17-2 ATS
• Chargers made the playoffs last year and are now 5-10 SU and on a 3-game SU losing streak this year.
  Their defense has allowed 24 pts or more in all three losses
  It’s the Chargers first 3-game losing streak allowing 24 pts or more in each since 2020 and just second such streak since 2016.
• Chargers lost by 42 pts against the Raiders a week before then got beat basically at the wire losing by 2 pts to the Bills
  Teams to lose by 35+ pts two weeks prior and then lose by one possession the next week are 19-26 SU (42%), with the under 26-18-1 in those games.
• Easton Stick will be making his first career start at Mile High in Denver
  21 QBs have made a start in Denver in their first season in the NFL and those QBs are 5-16 SU, including losing 5 in a row dating back to 2019. Last win was Minshew in 2019.
• Justin Herbert is 30-33 SU in four years as QB.
  Def PTS rank: 23, 29, 21, 27th this yr
  Def YDS rank: 10, 23, 20, 29th this yr
  LAC top-15 both on offense in points every year with Herbert entering the week of his injury in 2023.
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 189-130-9 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 & 103-76–6 ATS (58%) last two years.
  Week 17: NYJ, LAC, PIT, ATL, CAR, NE
• Rest tends to help losing streaks. Teams on extended rest (8 days or more) on a 3-game losing streak or more, are 137-108-4 ATS (55.9%) last 20 years.
  Week 17: LAC

---

---

Broncos

• Broncos are benching Russell Wilson and going to Jarrett Stidham.
  Russ vs. AFC West with Broncos: 3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS
• Stidham career SU, ATS: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS
  Home: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS
• Wilson with Seahawks vs. Broncos
  DEN: 11-19-0 SU, 11-18-1 ATS
  SU mark is 6th-worst in NFL, ATS is 3rd-worst
  SEA: 113-60-1 SU, 90-77-7 ATS
• Wilson’s 11-19 SU mark has lost bettors $636 with Broncos, making him the least profitable QB on ML for Broncos last 20 years (2nd-least is Orton, -$628)
• Broncos are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games after a 1-5 SU start
  Broncos could join the 1970 Bengals, the 2015 Kansas City Chiefs, the 2018 Indianapolis Colts and Washington in 2020 as the only teams to start 1-5 and make the postseason
• The under is 6-0-1 on the Broncos win total since 2016 and they are currently 7-8 SU with an 8.5 win total, so the fight is on.
• Broncos are 4-11 against the 3rd quarter spread this season and 11-21 3Q ATS last two seasons.
• Broncos defense is 9th in EPA/play since Week 6 (was as low as 3rd). In Weeks 1-5, they were 32nd, last in the NFL.
• Broncos defense allowed a completion pct of 73.6% through 8 games this season, that was tied for the 3rd-highest comp. % through eight games in the Super Bowl era.
  Since that point, Broncos have allowed a comp% of 60.3%, 9th-lowest mark in the NFL.
• Broncos home games have been an under-fest. They are 15-10 last three years and 46-29-1 since 2015 – all eight years .500 or better to the under at home. This season, they are 4-4 to the under at home.
• On a 2-game or more SU losing streak, Payton is 19-12 SU, 20-10-1 ATS.
• Payton is 24-19 ATS after a SU loss at home, including 15-8 ATS since 2015. 0-3 ATS in 2023
• After a home loss, Broncos are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS when playing at home again over the last 20 years
• Payton, Broncos are 5-9-1 ATS this season. Payton’s worst season since finishing 6-10 ATS in 2007 and 2014, and 7-10 in 2010
  Payton has gone 7 straight years w/ his team above .500 ATS (2015-21)
  In 16 seasons, his teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total
• Fade teams in Weeks 17 and 18 who need to win to either get into the playoffs or improve seeding. Teams with win pct of 40% to 69%, facing a team with a worse win pct, are 64-95-5 ATS (40.3%) last 20 years
  Week 17: CLE, BUF, HOU, LAR, IND, ATL, TB, KC, DEN
• When two defenses, who allow 24+ PPG with a total below 50 in November or later, under is 155-114-6 (57.6%).
  Week 17: ARI/PHI, LAC/DEN
• When two bad defenses play. Go under. When both teams allow 24 PPG or more, the under is 62-36 (63.3%) last three seasons
  Week 17: ARI/PHI, LAC/DEN
• Teams to lose as a favorite of a TD or more in their previous game are 44-36-1 ATS (55%) last five years.
  Week 17: KC, DEN
• Most profitable coaches ATS last 20 yrs: 1. Belichick, 2. McCarthy, 3. Zimmer 4. Payton
  Payton fell behind Zimmer after the loss to the Jets earlier this year. Bounced back in front after the 5-game win streak. Fell back behind after loss to Texans. Bounced back after win over Chargers. And fell back behind after loss to Lions. Ping-Pong. Two more losses to close out the season and he could fall behind John Harbough

Broncos First 15 Games – Last Two Seasons

---

---

Packers at Vikings | Sunday, Dec. 31

8:20pm ET | NBC

MIN -1 | 43.5

Packers

• Matt LaFleur in primetime games with Packers – night, international, etc .. standalone – is 21-13 SU, 20-14 ATS
• LaFleur is 19-11 SU, 18-12 ATS in his career at night – over the last 20 years, that 18-12 ATS mark is 10th-best of any head coach (10 of 137).
  He is the 3rd-best coach ATS at night since 2019, behind Frank Reich and Sean McVay
• Jordan Love in night games: 1-3 SU/ATS
• LaFleur is 49-37 ATS in his career as Packers coach.
• LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 19-10 ATS as a ‘dog — 12-5 with Rodgers and 7-5 with Jordan Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 30-27 ATS.
• How does LaFleur’s teams perform vs. bad teams?
  Vs. under .500 SU: 22-13 SU, 16-19 ATS
  Vs. 33% SU or less: 17-9 SU, 12-14 ATS
• LaFleur is now 17-2 SU, 10-9 ATS in December games.
  LaFleur is 39-28 SU in all other months. In January, LaFleur is just 5-5 SU.
• Love is 4-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU and 2-5 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU
• Most Games with 2+ Pass TD and 0 INT This Season
  7 – Purdy, Dak, Love
  6 – Russ, Baker, Goff
• After both teams go over the total in their previous game, the under tends to be a good play when they matchup a week later. With total of 45 or higher, when both teams go over the previous week, the under is 351-301-8 (54%) last 20 years and 102-77-3 (57%) since 2019.
  Week 17: GB/MIN, ARI/PHI, SF/WAS
• Jordan Love is 2-6 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 4-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
• Fewest games favored in season for Packers since 1990
  4 – 2023 (1-3 ATS)
  2 – 1991 (0-2 ATS)
  3 – 1992 (2-1 ATS)
  5 – 2006 (2-3 ATS)
  5 – 2005 (1-3-1 ATS)
  6 – 1990 (2-4 ATS)
  6 – 2017 (4-2 ATS)
• Jordan Love has been streaky has an NFL QB.
  Started 4-0 ATS, 4-8 ATS since.
  Love has closed as a favorite four times in his 14 start career (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS).
• Love vs. NFC North: 2-2 SU/ATS | vs. MIN: lost 24-10 as 1-pt dog at home
• Packers were plus money (+165) to make the playoffs in the preseason for the first time since 2009 (+100) – they made the playoffs that season.
  Packers are now +225 to make the playoffs after being -215 a month ago. GB has a 7-8 SU record.
• Teams after facing the Panthers this season: 10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS
• The Packers went 5-6 SU as favorites under LaFleur last season. They are 2-2 SU this year. Between 2019-21, Packers were 33-9 SU as a favorite under LaFleur.
• Much has been made about the Packers’ success without Aaron Rodgers this year. Here is a comparison to other teams after star QBs left and how they did the year after losing a quarterback on the top-10 most wins all-time list. Of 11 QBs, 10 won at least six games the next year. The one that didn’t was Colts in 2011 who went 2-14 SU, but they went 11-5 SU the following year with Andrew Luck.

Most QB Wins All-Time
1. Tom Brady -> 2020 NE, 7-9 SU
2. Brett Favre -> 2008 GB, 6-10 SU
3. Peyton Manning -> 2011 IND, 2-14 SU
4. Drew Brees -> 2021 NO, 9-8 SU
5. Ben Roethlisberger -> 2022 PIT, 9-8 SU
6. John Elway -> 1999 DEN, 6-10 SU
7. Aaron Rodgers -> 2023 GB, 7-8 SU
8. Dan Marino -> 2000 MIA, 11-5 SU
9. Philip Rivers -> 2020 SD, 7-9 SU
10. Matt Ryan -> 2022 ATL, 7-10 SU
10. Fran Tarkenton -> 1979 MIN, 7-9 SU

---

---

Vikings

• Vikings in night games under O’Connell: Five games, 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS.
• Vikings are 11-8 SU in home night games since 2009.
  Vikings have played 33 road or neutral night games since 2009, they are 7-26 SU in those games, the worst in the NFL ahead of just the Bengals.
• Vikings are 12-2-1 to the first quarter under this season.
• Kirk Cousins last played for the Vikings in Week 8. Since, Vikings offense is 18th in EPA/play and even 27th in rush EPA/play, impacting the ground game.
• Nick Mullens career SU/ATS: 5-14 SU, 6-12-1 ATS
  On road: 2-5 SU, 2-4-1 ATS | as underdog: 4-9 SU, 5-7-1 ATS
  Mullens in night games: 1-4 SU/ATS
• Josh Dobbs career SU/ATS: 3-11 SU, 7-6-1 ATS
  On road: 1-6 SU, 3-3-1 ATS | as underdog: 2-10 SU, 7-5 ATS
• With Kirk out, Minnesota will continue to go to a back up QB.
  Vikings will start 4 QBs this season – Cousins, Dobbs, Hall, Mullens – their most in a season in franchise history.
  Since 2015, only four backup QBs have started for Minnesota entering this week. Now a 5th: Nick Mullens, Josh Dobbs, Jaren Hall, Sean Mannion and Case Keenum. They are 16-11 SU, 15-9-3 ATS in 27 games filling in for the Vikings.
• Kevin O’Connell as a favorite and an underdog
  Favorite: 16-4 SU, 9-9-2 ATS
  Underdog: 4-9 SU, 5-7-1 ATS
• O’Connell vs. NFC North SU, ATS: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS
  O’Connell vs. GB: 2-1 SU/ATS
  He has covered three of his last five games in the division, three of which were against CHI.
  Dog/Favorite vs. NFC North: O’Connell and the Vikings play their role in the NFC North, they are 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS as favorites and 0-3 SU/ATS as underdogs.
• O’Connell off win/loss
  Off a loss: 4-6-1 ATS
  Off a win: 9-9-2 ATS
• The Vikings are 10-5 to the under this season. Between 2020-22, Minnesota was 34-16-1 to the over in that span.
• Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell by time of day
  1 p.m. ET or earlier: 16-5 SU, 10-9-2 ATS
  2 p.m. ET or later: 4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS
• Vikings have 25 fumbles as a team – third-most in the NFL
  Joshua Dobbs has 14 fumbles now, most in the NFL. Next highest is 13 (Tua).
  14 would've led the league in two of the last three seasons.
• Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last year during the regular season. Minnesota has now played seven straight one-score games entering Week 17 and they’ve played 14 one-score games in 2023 (7-8 SU) in 14 total games.

Worst point differential among 13+ win teams since the merger (incl. postseason)
2022 Vikings -10 2023: 8.5 win total (7-9 SU, 7-7-2 ATS)
1979 Oilers +26 1980: 11-6 SU (WC), 6-9-2 ATS
1990 Raiders +31 1991: 9-8 SU (WC), 8-9 ATS (U10 win total)
1993 Chiefs +31 1994: 9-8 SU (WC), 9-8 ATS (U9.5 win total)

---

---

NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️

Biggest NFL Week 17 Public Sides
49ers (-13.5) at WAS					77% of bets
Packers (+1) at MIN					72% of bets

Biggest NFL Week 17 Line Moves
49ers (-3.5 to -14) at WAS
Rams (+3 to -6) vs. NYG

NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️

Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Week 17
Rams at Giants (+6)					120k bets
Saints at Buccaneers (-2.5)					100k bets

Biggest NFL Week 17 Public Totals
LAR-NYG (O/U: 43.5)					97% of bets to over
GB-MIN (O/U: 43.5)					81% of bets to over

System: Fade teams who need to win games late in the season.

Matches: CLE, BUF, HOU, LAR, IND, ATL, TB, KC, DEN

$$$: Week 17, 18 .. Fade Teams That Need Wins

the game is played during the Regular season

the team's game number is between 16 and 17

the team's win percentage is between 40% and 69%

the team's win percent differential is between -35 and -5

$-3,376

WON

64-95-5

RECORD

40%

WIN%

View System

System: Teams traveling from PST to EST have excelled in the first half.

Matches: NO, BAL, LAR, SF, BUF

$$$: Game in EST, Was in PST (1H, since 2017)

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 or 2017-18 season

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

the team's previous game was played in the Pacific timezone

the game is played in the Eastern timezone

$3,322

WON

113-72-3

RECORD

61%

WIN%

View System

System: Fade big line moves. When teams move 3 pts or more from opening to closing lines they have historically been good teams to fade.

Matches — CHECK UPDATED LINES. Matches as of writing: CLE, TB, IND, LAR, KC, HOU, BUF, SF

$$$: Fade Big Line Moves

the spread change from open to close is between -100 and -3

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 season

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

$-3,014

WON

85-107-4

RECORD

44%

WIN%

View System

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

• We have a new leader this season! Andrew Beck of the Texans is the ATTD profit leader for 2023 ahead of KaVontae Turpin of the Cowboys.

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

• Panthers WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette catapulted to No. 2 in the first team TD chart with his score in Week 16.

NFL Player Incentives ⤵️

Show Me The Money!

Entering Week 17

• Alexander Mattison gets a $250K bonus if he gets at least 750 rushing yards and another $250K bonus at 1,000 rushing yards. He has 659 on the season.
• Devin Singletary offensive snaps incentives. He is at 53% this season.
  50% Off. snaps (125k), 55% (125K), 66% (250K), 1000 total yards (125K)
• Dalton Schultz offensive snaps incentives. He is at 72% this season.
  71% Off. snaps ($250K), 80% Off. snaps ($250K), 60 rec ($250K), 700 rec yds ($250K)
• Gardner Minshew makes $2M bonus if he plays 60% offensive snaps. He’s at 88% this season.
• Odell Beckham Jr’s incentive opportinities
  30 rec ($250k), 40 rec ($250K), 50 rec (250K), 60 rec or leads team ($250K)
  250 yds ($250K), 500 yds ($250K), 750 yds (250K), 1000 yds or leads team ($250K)
  3 TDs ($250K), 5 TDs ($250K), 7 TDs ($250K), 9TDs or leads team ($250K)
  3M total opportunity
• Arden Key sack incentive. He is at 6.
  8 sacks for $500K

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Biggest Super Bowl Riser

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 66-1 (TB was 125-1 to win SB last week)

Biggest Super Bowl Faller

Houston Texans: 100-1 (HOU was 66-1 to win SB last week)

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

NFL Win Total Grid and Progress

Trending Up 📈
Colts ✅					8-7	Win Total: 6.5
Rams ✅					8-7	Win Total: 6.5
Buccaneers ✅					8-7	Win Total: 6.5
Texans ✅					8-7	Win Total: 6.5
Lions ✅					11-4	Win Total: 9.5
Dolphins ✅					11-4	Win Total: 9.5
Ravens ✅					12-3	Win Total: 10.5
Raiders ✅					7-8	Win Total: 6.5
Cowboys ✅					10-5	Win Total: 9.5
Browns ✅					10-5	Win Total: 9.5
49ers ✅					11-4	Win Total: 10.5
Eagles					11-4	Win Total: 11.5
Seahawks					8-7	Win Total: 8.5
Steelers					8-7	Win Total: 8.5
Packers					7-8	Win Total: 7.5
Bills					9-6	Win Total: 10.5
Jaguars					8-7	Win Total: 9.5

Trending Down 📉
Falcons					7-8	Win Total: 8.5
Broncos					7-8	Win Total: 8.5
Vikings					7-8	Win Total: 8.5
Bears					6-9	Win Total: 7.5
Cardinals					3-12	Win Total: 4.5
Chiefs ❌					9-6	Win Total: 11.5
Saints ❌					7-8	Win Total: 9.5
Bengals ❌					8-7	Win Total: 11.5
Titans ❌					5-10	Win Total: 7.5
Giants ❌					5-10	Win Total: 7.5
Jets ❌					6-9	Win Total: 9.5
Commanders ❌					4-11	Win Total: 6.5
Patriots ❌					4-11	Win Total: 7.5
Chargers ❌					5-10	Win Total: 9.5
Panthers ❌					2-13	Win Total: 7.5

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Odds	3rd In Odds
NFL MVP	Dak Prescott (+150)	Brock Purdy (+175)	Lamar Jackson (+600)
Offensive POY	Tyreek Hill (-200)	Christian McCaffrey (+150)	CeeDee Lamb (+1600)
Defensive POY	Micah Parsons (-130)	Myles Garrett (+200)	T.J. Watt (+600)
Offensive ROY	CJ Stroud (-3000)	Jahmyr Gibbs (+1800)	Puka Nacua (+1800)
Defensive ROY	Jalen Carter (-500)	Devon Witherspoon (+700)	Will Anderson (+700)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (-500)	Tua Tagovailoa (+500)	Lamar Jackson (+1500)
Coach Of The Year	Dan Campbell (+325)	DeMeco Ryans (+325)	Mike McDaniel (+325)
Updated as of Dec. 12th

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• Lamar Jackson is now the odds-on favorite to win MVP. He is the 7th different player to be sole favorite to win MVP this season (Lamar, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa).
• Purdy is the seventh different QB to be listed as the favorite or co-favorite to win the MVP award: Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tagovailoa, Allen, Hurts, Prescott, Purdy

Season Stat Leader Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Stat Leader Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Category	3rd In Category
Pass Yds	Tua Tagovailoa (+2000): Leader	Brock Purdy (+6600): -164	Jared Goff (+2500): -230
Pass TD	Dak Prescott (+2000): Leader	Brock Purdy (+5000): -1	Jared Goff (+2000): -3
INT	Sam Howell (N/A): Leader	Josh Allen (+1000): -2	Patrick Mahomes (+2500): -3
Rec. Yds	Tyreek Hill (+950): Leader	CeeDee Lamb (+1800): -217	A.J. Brown (+1800): -247
Rec. TD	Mike Evans (+3000): Leader	Tyreek Hill (+1400): -1	Courtland Sutton (+8000): -3
Receptions	CeeDee Lamb (+2200): Leader	Keenan Allen (+2200): -1	Tyreek Hill (+1100): -3
Rush TD	Raheem Mostert (+4000): Leader	Jalen Hurts (+800): -3	Christian McCaffrey (+2200): -4
Sacks	T.J. Watt (+850): Leader	Trey Hendrickson (+3500): -1	Danielle Hunter (+3000): -1.5
Tackles	Zaire Franklin (+2000): Leader	Foyesade Oluokun (+650): -1	Bobby Wagner (+2200): -7
INT	DaRon Bland (N/A): Leader	Geno Stone (N/A): -2	Jessie Bates III (+3400): -2
Kick Pts	Brandon Aubrey (N/A): Leader	Justin Tucker (+500): -6	Jake Elliott (+1200): -17
Updated as of Dec. 26th

Trivia Instructions

For this weeks trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: Bills are big favorites against the Patriots this week. Can you name every QB to be listed as a double-digit favorite vs. Belichick's New England teams (since 2000)?

Click here to return to the table of contents.

The ultimate NFL betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Our model's biggest weekly edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

SAVE 55% NOW!