NFL Week 5 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Last week in the NFL, unders and road teams took center stage again, both going over .500. This week, the focus is on the Ravens-Steelers AFC North battle, the Lions as big favorites, a Cowboys-49ers clash in primetime, and so much more.

Let's look at the full slate, with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 5 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Oct. 8, 1p ET.

Public Love

Good Start

Through four weeks, the public — which constitutes any team that receives 51% of the bets or higher — is 33-24-3 ATS.

This is the third-most profitable four-week start for the public in the last 20 years (2020 and 2009).

Home-Cooking

49ers' Home Cover Streak

Dating to last season, the 49ers have covered the spread in nine consecutive games at Levi's Stadium, the longest current home cover streak in the NFL and the 49ers' longest since 1960.

Public Darling

Dolphins Close To History

The Miami Dolphins were 4.5-point favorites on the lookahead line vs. the Giants. They are now 12.5-point favorites.

Miami is currently receiving 90% of bets to cover the spread. No team has closed with 90% of tickets or more since the Patriots back in 2008 against the Seahawks. "The biggest public side in 15 years" is a title Miami could have by kick on Sunday.

As Close As Can Be

Steelers-Ravens Series

+ Over the last 20 years, the underdog in this series is 28-12-3 ATS.

+ In the regular season, when the line is 3 or more, the underdog is 21-3-3 ATS in this series since 2005.

+ The underdog has covered 11 straight in this rivalry and is 15-1-1 ATS since 2015.

+ In the regular season, the underdog is 22-5-3 ATS when Mike Tomlin faces John Harbaugh.

Watch For Wind

Weather Betting History

We are getting close to weather season. This week we have a few wind games. Games with 10 MPH winds or higher at kickoff are 96-50 (65.8%) to the under in the last three seasons and is 56.9% to the under in the last 20 years.

This season, these such games are 4-0 to the under, going under the total by 9.4 PPG. Check up to date weather for our Bet Labs systems here.

Goff's World

Lions On The Up

The Lions haven’t been favored by a touchdown or more since Sept. 10, 2018 when they faced the Jets as 7-point favorites. Detroit lost that game, 48-17.

The last game they were above a TD favorite: Dec. 31, 2017 vs. Packers backup Brett Hundley. The Lions were 9-point favorites and won, 35-11.

The Lions closing as a favorite of a TD or more would break the longest active streak for a team without closing -7 or higher. All 31 teams have closed -7 or higher at least once since Sept. 11, 2018.

Good and Bad

Desmond Ridder Streaks

There are two streaks on the line for Falcons QB Desmond Ridder this week. He is 30-0 straight up at home in his NFL and college careers, and through eight NFL starts, he is 0-8 against the first-half spread.

Bears at Commanders | Thursday, Oct. 5

8:20pm ET | Amazon

WAS -6 | 44.5

Bears

• The Bears' last victory straight up came on Oct. 24 of last year against the Patriots, which was also their last night game as a franchise. Prior to that win, the Bears were on a nine-game SU losing streak at night. Since 2016, Chicago is 2-11 SU on the road at night (one of those wins came at Washington). In his career, Justin Fields is 1-5 SU at night.
• The Bears have lost six straight road games SU and they are 1-10 SU on the road in their last 11 overall. Fields is 2-12 SU on the road in his career.
• NFL first-half unders are now 81-55-2 (59%) in night games since 2021, including 23-13-1 (64%) on TNF in that span.
• Thursday home teams are just 21-34 ATS since 2020, including 19-30 ATS in Thursday night games (worst of any day of week for home teams at night).
• Bet home teams on Thursday night? Since 2020, they are only 23-26 SU; they are 84-59 SU on all other nights.
• Chicago is 4-0 to the over this season — the only team in the NFL to be undefeated to the over in 2023.
• The Bears are the first winless team this late in the season to play a night game since the Jets in 2020 and the Dolphins in 2019. It's happened only two times since 2017.
• Fields has thrown an interception in every game he's played this season (5 in 4 games), a distinction he shares with two other quarterbacks: Daniel Jones (6 in 4 games) and Jimmy Garoppolo (6 in 3 games).
• Fields is 5-24 SU, 8-20-1 ATS in his career. In a minimum of 20 starts, he has lowest ATS win percentage of all NFL quarterbacks over the last 20 years (28.6%)
• Fields is 10-18-1 1H ATS in his career, including 4-10 on the road. Only Tom Brady has a worse 1H ATS record since Fields entered the league in 2021.
• When Bears opponents score more than 20 points vs. a Fields-led team, they are 20-0 SU. All five Fields wins have come with opponents scoring 20 points or less.
• The Bears haven’t covered the spread since Dec. 18, 2022 vs. the Eagles (eight consecutive games, longest active ATS losing streak) and they haven’t won SU and ATS in the same game since beating the Patriots as 9-point dogs on Oct. 24, 2022. Chicago is 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games.
• Going back to last season, the Bears have lost 14 consecutive games and allowed 25+ points in all of them. That is the longest streak of its kind in NFL history. They are 1-17 SU in their last 18 games.
• This is the longest Bears losing streak in franchise history and six shy of tying the longest in NFL history (20 straight by the 2020-21 Jaguars).
• The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going 5-19-1 ATS vs. the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,414 – the least profitable team vs. their own division in the NFL in that span. Chicago is 17-28-1 ATS vs. other divisions since 2019. Overall, the Bears are 22-47-2 ATS since 2019, worst of any team

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Commanders

• Not many teams have been worse at night than the Commanders. In the last 20 years, Washington is 21-40 SU, 23-35-3 ATS in night games — the third-worst NFL mark ATS over that span behind only the Bucs and Texans. Straight up, their 34.4 win percentage is the fifth-worst overt the last two decades.
• Washington is 12-24 SU, 12-22-2 ATS in home games at night.
• The Commanders are up to a 7-point favorite against the Bears. It would be Washington's second game this season as a TD favorite or higher (Week 1 vs. ARI, also -7). Prior to that, Washington hadn’t been a TD-plus favorite since the Kirk Cousins-Eli Manning matchup in November 2017.

Washington's highest spreads in night games since 2000:
-10.5: 2000 vs. DAL (L, 27-21)
-7: 2023 vs. CHI
-7: 2017 vs. NYG (W, 20-10)
-7: 2016 vs. CAR (L, 26-15)

• Sam Howell has been sacked a league-high 24 times this season. The NFL record for sacks taken in a season is 76, set by David Carr for the Texans in 2002, their first year as an expansion franchise. Howell is on pace to take 108 this year.

Most sacks through four games all-time:
27 — David Carr (2005)
26 — David Carr (2002)
24 — Sam Howell (2023)

• The dog is strong in Ron Rivera. He is 58-43-2 ATS as an underdog and 47-50-2 ATS as a favorite with Washington and Carolina.
• Rivera has been an NFL head coach for 12 seasons. His teams have finished .500 or worse nine times.
• The under in Commanders home games is 20-5-1 in the last 26 games, including 20-7-1 since 2020 – second-best in the NFL behind the Giants (20-6-1).

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Jaguars vs. Bills | Sunday, Oct. 8

9:30am ET | NFL Network

BUF -5 | 48.5

Let’s look at a few facts and trends from the 40 total international games:
+ Totals are an even 20-20. Where the value has been is at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, site of Sunday's game and where the over is 5-1 all-time.
+ Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 30-9-1 SU and 26-14 ATS.
+ The public has struggled a bit overseas. Teams with 51%+ of tickets in international games are just 19-20 ATS.
+ Favorites of over a FG or more overseas are 24-6-1 SU, 20-11 ATS.
+ Teams scoring 20 PPG or fewer that face a team scoring more than 20 PPG are just 6-15 ATS when the game is played overseas. That is the case this week with the Jaguars (20.0) and Bills (34.8).

Jaguars

• This is the Jaguars' 11th game in the international series (5-5 SU/ATS).
• The under has hit in the last five Jaguars games in London.
• Last week, the Jaguars beat the Falcons in London and now face the Bills there. Jacksonville plays back-to-back London games for the first time in history.
• The Jaguars have won six straight road/neutral games ATS dating to last season
• Starting LT Cam Robinson missed the first four games serving a PED suspension. He is eligible to return this week.
• The Jaguars were 25-1 to win the Super Bowl entering the season. It was the fifth time since 2000 they were under 30-1 to win it all, and the results prior to this year haven’t been pretty.

Jaguars under 30-1 Super Bowl odds since 2000:
2023: 25-1, 2-2 SU
2019: 25-1, 6-10
2018: 14-1, 5-11
2008: 13-1, 5-11
2000: 12-1, 7-9

Trevor Lawrence

• Lawrence overseas vs. playing in the states:
  2-1 SU/ATS overseas
  13-24 SU, 15-22 ATS in states
• Lawrence is 17-23 ATS in his career – 12-11 ATS with Doug Pederson, 5-12 ATS with Urban Meyer/Darrell Bevell.
• Lawrence is 17-23 against 1H spread in his career – fourth-worst of 90 quarterbacks since he was drafted in 2021, ahead of just Tom Brady, Desmond Ridder and Justin Fields. Lawrence is 3-1 1H ATS this season.
• Lawrence is 24-16 to the under in the last three seasons, the most profitable NFL QB (out of 90) to the under over that time.
• Lawrence is 14-8-1 against the 2H spread since the start of last season – fourth-best in the NFL behind Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy and Geno Smith.
• Looking for a Lawrence anytime TD? He’s scored in just 6 of 40 career games.
• Lawrence on the moneyline as an underdog: Home — 7-6 SU, Road/Neutral — 4-13 SU.

Doug Pederson

• Pederson ATS in his career: 55-54 ATS
  September through November: 31-39 ATS
  December on: 24-15 ATS
• Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite.
  Underdog: 30-23 ATS
  Favorite: 25-31 ATS

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Bills

• Josh Allen has 59 career wins as a starter — 45 of those have been by 7 points or more.
• Allen had no turnovers in the Bills' Week 4 win over the Dolphins. He still has not had consecutive starts without a giveaway since the 2021-22 playoffs. In the regular season, Allen has not had consecutive starts without a giveaway since Weeks 15-16 of 2020.
• The Bills have won their last three games by at least 28 points, tied for longest streak in the Super Bowl era.
• Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career.
• Allen is 31-16-3 ATS on seven days rest — the seventh-most profitable QB ATS over the last 20 years in this spot. He’s 7-8-1 ATS on short rest and 6-11-1 ATS on extended rest.
• The biggest advantage for the Bills might just be their second half. With Allen, Buffalo is 53-32-3 against the second-half spread. Since 2005, he’s the second-most profitable QB on the 2H spread.
• This is Allen’s third career game played on a neutral field.
  2022 vs. Browns. -8, W 31-23
  2020 vs. 49ers. +1.5, W 34-24
• Overall, Allen is 24-16-3 ATS away from home.

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Texans at Falcons | Sunday, Oct. 8

1:00pm ET | FOX

ATL -2.5 | 42

Texans

• Bet dogs with low totals. Underdogs with O/U of below 42 are 69-40-2 ATS (63%) in the first eight weeks of a season over the last 20 years. Teams that qualify in Week 5: PIT, HOU, NO
• NFL quarterbacks without an INT this season:
  Texans' C.J. Stroud — 151 attempts
  Cardinals' Josh Dobbs — 123 attempts
  49ers' Brock Purdy — 112 attempts
• Stroud is the first rookie since the 1970 merger with 250 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns and 0 interceptions in three straight games.
• Stroud has 1,212 passing yards, the second-most by a player in his first four NFL games, behind only Cam Newton. Stroud is the second quarterback in NFL history with no interceptions in each of his first four NFL starts (minimum 30 attempts in each start), joining Gardner Minshew, who did it in 2019.
• Stroud has the most pass attempts without an interception to start a season for a rookie all-time.
• Quarterbacks with 150+ pass attempts in first four games of a season and without an INT: Brees, Brady, Mahomes, Peyton, Stroud.
• All of the Texans' first five opponents have had a defense currently ranked in the top-15 of EPA/play.
• Are the Texans undervalued? Eighteen teams have beaten the Steelers by 20+ points in the last 20 years. Those teams are 6-11-1 ATS in their next game, but just three have closed as an underdog or below a 2-point favorite in their next game.

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Falcons

• The Falcons play the Texans after their London game last week. Only 10 times has a team returned home from Europe without going into its bye week. Every one of those teams was tied or trailing in the fourth quarter the following week. In those 10 games, opponent team totals are 7-3 to the over.
• The Falcons continue their journey having played zero games this season with a positive rest differential vs. their opponent.
• In 53 seasons since the merger, six rookies have led the NFL in rushing: Earl Campbell (1978), George Rogers (1981), Eric Dickerson (1983), Edgerrin James (1999), Ezekiel Elliott (2016), Kareem Hunt (2017). With 318 yards on the ground, Bijan Robinson is fourth in the NFL in rushing entering Week 5. He is 7-1 to lead the league in rushing entering the week (Christian McCaffrey currently leads the NFL with 459 rushing yards).
• Falcons receiving yards leaders in 2023:
  Jonnu Smith: 179
  Bijan Robinson: 134
  Drake London: 126
  Kyle Pitts: 121

Desmond Ridder

• The Falcons have struggled in the first half under Ridder, going 0-8 against the 1H spread in his career. They are failing to cover 1H spreads by 6.6 PPG. 1H points under Ridder: 3, 9, 7, 10, 14, 3, 3, 0. Dating to college, Ridder has lost 10 straight 1H ATS.
• Ridder has never lost a home game as a starting quarterback in college or the NFL:
  NFL: 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS
  CFB: 26-0 SU, 17-9 ATS
  Total: 30-0 SU, 19-11 ATS
• On the road (+ neutral) has been a different story so far in the NFL for Ridder:
  NFL: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS
  CFB: 15-4 SU, 9-10 ATS (3-2 SU/ATS neutral)
  Total: 15-8 SU, 10-13 ATS

Ridder home vs. road/neutral in his NFL career:
W-L: 4-0 home, 0-4 road/neutral
ATS: 2-2, 1-3
PPG: 24.8, 10
TD-INT: 4-1, 1-2
Y/A: 7.0, 5.5

Arthur Smith

• Smith is 9-9 SU, 6-12 ATS at home as a head coach (7-13 SU, 10-9-1 ATS road/neutral) — the worst Falcons head coach ATS at home in the last 20 years. Since being hired in 2021, he is the least profitable coach ATS at home.
• When the Falcons return home off a road/neutral game, they are 3-9 ATS under Smith.

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Panthers at Lions | Sunday, Oct. 8

1:00pm ET | FOX

DET -9.5 | 44

Panthers

• Carolina is 0-4 SU for the first time since 2010 and for just the fourth time in franchise history (2023, 2010, 1998, 1995).
• The Panthers went over their win total last year (6.5; 7 wins) but haven’t eclipsed it in consecutive years since 2002-03.
• What a first half ATS rollercoaster Frank Reich teams have gone through:
  2023 Panthers: 3-1 1H ATS
  2022 Colts: 0-9 1H ATS
  2018-21 Colts: 42-25-1 1H ATS (second-best in NFL)
• Reich all-time as favorite: 30-13-1 SU. Reich all-time as underdog: 11-26 SU.

Bryce Young

• Young is 0-3 SU this season. Since 2000, No. 1 overall QB picks are 62-122-2 SU in their first season.
• Young’s longest completion is 22 yards this season — the lowest of 30 quarterbacks with 100+ pass attempts.
• Since 2002, there have been 31 instances of a team drafting a quarterback in the top 10 who then went on to start at least eight games as a rookie, and those teams combined to go 11-18-2 (37.9%) toward their win-total over. Over the past 10 years, they’ve been even worse, going just 4-11-2 (26.7%). Young has started three of Carolina's four games so far this year.
• Starting quarterbacks under 6-feet in rookie seasons:
  2023: Bryce Young 0-3 SU
  2020: PJ Walker 1-0 SU
  2019: Kyler Murray 5-11 SU
  2012: Russell Wilson 11-5 SU
  1986: Doug Flutie 1-0 SU
  1976: Pat Haden 5-2 SU
• Highest Team O/U when drafting QB first overall since 1990:
  1992: Giants/Dave Brown – 9 (Supplemental Draft) (6-10 SU)
  2023: Panthers/Young – 7.5 (0-4 SU)
  2016: Rams/Jared Goff – 7.5 (4-12 SU)

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Lions

• Lions are 26-12 ATS since the start of the 2021 season, most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($1,171).
• Detroit's previous biggest spread under Jared Goff was -4.5 (twice).

Jared Goff

• Most profitable NFL quarterbacks against the spread:
  Since 2022: Goff (15-6)
  Since 2021: Goff (24-11)
  Since 2020: Goff (32-19)
  Since 2019: Goff (42-24-1)
  Since 2018: Goff (51-33-2)
  Since 2017: Goff (60-40-2)
• Most profitable Lions quarterbacks ATS last 20 years:

1. Goff 24-11
2. Dan Orlovsky 6-1
3. Joey Harrington 24-18-1

• Goff is 17-7 ATS in September (best of any month) and 11-14 ATS in October (worst of any month).
• Lions are facing the Panthers at home this week. Goff ATS indoor vs. outdoor:
  Indoor: 27-14 ATS (17-6 ATS last two seasons)
  Outdoor: 33-33-2 ATS
• Goff broke his interception-less streak in Week 2 against Seattle and threw one again in Week 3 vs. Atlanta and another in Week 4 vs. Green Bay. In 2023, he is +3.2 units betting the yes INT prop. If you bet on Goff to throw an INT in every game last season, you would have been down 7.3U (most of any QB).
• Goff is 18-8 ATS at home since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL. Goff on the road since 2020: 14-11 ATS
• Highest Lions spreads for Goff as a starter:
  -4.5: 2023 vs. SEA (L, 37-31)
  -4.5: 2022 vs. CHI (W, 41-10)
  -3.5: 2022 vs. SEA (L, 48-45)

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Titans at Colts | Sunday, Oct. 8

1:00pm ET | CBS

TEN -2.5 | 43.5

Titans

Mike Vrabel

• Vrabel is 24-23 SU, 28-18-1 ATS when his team is listed as an underdog. Minimum 20 games as an underdog, Matt LaFleur is the only other coach above .500 SU as an underdog in the last 20 years (Mike Tomlin is 45-45).
• In games with a spread of 3 or less, Vrabel is 20-15 SU, 18-15-2 ATS, including 3-0 ATS in that spot this season.
• In six seasons with the Titans, Vrabel has never finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog (3-1 ATS this season).
• Vrabel is 36-24 SU in September, October and November in his career (16-15 SU in December and on).
• Against divisional opponents, Vrabel is 19-11 SU, 17-13 ATS.
• Vrabel is 6-4 SU/ATS in his career vs. the Colts, winning and covering five in a row in the series.
• Vrabel is coming off a win as an underdog against the Bengals last week. Public would assume there is a step back the following week, but Vrabel is 14-9 ATS in this spot, covering by 5.6 PPG. After a win as a dog SU, Vrabel is 9-4 ATS when listed as a dog again.

Ryan Tannehill

• Tannehill is 75-73-4 ATS in his career – 34-28-2 ATS with Tennessee, 41-45-2 ATS with Miami.
• Overall, Tannehill excels earlier in the season. He's 56-44-2 ATS in the first three months of the season and 19-29-2 ATS in December or later.
• Tannehill is a league-best 31-20 against 1H spread over the last four years. In that same span, he’s 22-28-1 against the 2H spread. He’s 38-25-1 1H ATS with the Titans and 41-46-1 1H ATS with the Dolphins. He’s second-best in the NFL 1H ATS since joining the Titans (behind Lamar Jackson) and 4-11-1 against 2H spread since the beginning of last season.

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Colts

• Colts could potentially get back Jonathan Taylor back this week. Here are some rushing ranks for the Colts so far this season:
  Success rate: 23rd
  EPA: 31st
  Yds/rush: T-19th
  Colts without Taylor: 4-7 SU
  Colts when Taylor starts: 21-19-1 SU
• Are the Colts real or fake? They lost at home vs. the Rams last week and are now at home again. Teams that are .500 or better SU, that lost at home the previous week and now play at home again are just 85-110-6 ATS (43.6%) last 20 years. Later in the season, it gets worse: 78-104-5 ATS (42.9%) after September.

Anthony Richardson

• Richardson has had RPO success this year. In 13 RPO plays, he has eight pass attempts (more than 8 yards per attempt) and five rushes (for 11 yards). His Y/A this season is just 6.7 overall.
• Richardson has four rushing TDs through his first three career starts. That's tied with three others for the most rushing TDs in a quarterback's first three starts all-time. The last to do so was Taysom Hill in 2020.
• Among QBs with 75+ pass attempts this year, Richardson’s six of 20+ yards downfield is the second-fewest behind Bryce Young.
• Fewest college starts by 1R QB last 20 years:
  2023: Anthony Richardson, 13 (started Week 1). Through three starts: 1-2 SU/ATS. 3 pass TD, 1 INT (4 rush TD), 6.7 Y/A, 6 sacks
  2017: Mitch Trubisky, 13 (started Week 5). Through three starts: 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS. 2 pass TD, 1 INT, 7.3 Y/A, 9 sacks
  2019: Dwayne Haskins, 14 (started Week 9). Through three starts: 1-2 SU/ATS. 2 pass TD, 2 INT, 6 Y/A, 13 sacks

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Giants at Dolphins | Sunday, Oct. 8

1:00pm ET | FOX

MIA -12.5 | 47.5

Giants

• Daniel Jones has played in all four games this year and thrown an interception in each. There are only two quarterbacks that have thrown an interception in every game this season: Jones and Justin Fields.
  +  Teams that go from a home game to a road game in Florida (TB, JAC, MIA) are just 157-140-10 ATS over the last 20 years. But earlier in the season is another story.
  September and October: 74-44-3 ATS
  November on: 83-96-7 ATS
• The Giants are the only team to play three primetime games this season; they're 0-3 and have been outscored 94-15 (-79). That's the worst point differential by any team in a span of 3 primetime games within a season since the 1970 merger.
• The Giants have zero takeaways this season. They are the fifth team with zero takeaways through four games all-time and the only one to win a game SU.
• How can the Giants get to Tagovailoa? Their defense has a league-low 18 total pressures on opposing QBs this season. Tagovailoa has been pressured on just 12 dropbacks, lowest among 30 QBs with 100+ pass attempts.
• In the last 20 years, the Giants have closed above +10.5 once in the first five games of the season — 2020, when they were +13.5 against the Rams (L,17-9).
• It's been a very different year for the Giants under Brian Daboll. They went 7-0 ATS after a SU loss last season. This year, they are 0-2.
• Jones has done a much better job at covering on the road vs. at home in his career:
  Home: 13-17 ATS (-$513)
  Road/Neutral: 19-10 ATS (+$770)
• The Giants are now 1-3 SU to start the season with back-to-back losses. Jones is 21-12 ATS in his career after a SU loss, including 18-7 ATS over the last four seasons (0-2 ATS this season). His 18-7 ATS mark after a SU loss over the last four years is the best mark in the NFL
• The Giants and Falcons are both coming off consecutive terrible offensive performances, scoring fewer than 14 pts in both games. Teams in this spot are 32-23-1 ATS since 2020 and 65-50-2 ATS since 2017. When this happens to a team in their first five games, they are 62-46-2 ATS over the last 20 years.
• Jones has been sacked 22 times this season, second-most in NFL behind Sam Howell. Half of his sacks came on MNF against the Seahawks. Teams after allowing seven sacks or more are 87-114-5 ATS (43.3%) over the last 20 years, including 4-13 ATS the last two seasons.
• Jones has played 13 games on short rest with the Giants and he is 4-9 SU, but 9-4 ATS – 9-2 ATS on short rest since 2020. Since his first start in 2019, he is the second-most profitable QB ATS on short rest (behind Jared Goff).
• Daboll led the Giants to an impressive 11-3 ATS record as an underdog in Year 1, going 7-6 straight-up (SU) in those spots. This season hasn’t been as kind. The Giants are 0-3 SU/ATS as an underdog this season.

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Dolphins

• The Dolphins have closed above a 10-point favorite just four times in the last 20 years:
  -14.5: 2022 vs. HOU (W, 30-15)
  -13.5: 2003 vs. HOU (L, 21-20)
  -10.5: 2020 vs. CIN (W, 19-7)
  -10.5: 2006 vs. TEN (W, 13-10)
• Even after “only” scoring 20 points against the Bills last week, the Dolphins are still averaging 37.5 PPG this season, best in the NFL.
• In the fifth game or later, teams to average 35+ PPG and be listed as a favorite of 7 or more are 22-31-2 ATS (41%).
• The Giants are averaging 11.5 PPG this season. Teams averaging 35 PPG or more, facing a team averaging 20 PPG or less are 19-38-4 ATS over the last 20 years. In Game 5 or later, those teams are 7-18-1 ATS.
• The Dolphins are still averaging an absurd 8.02 yards per play this year. That is second-best all-time through four games behind the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams in 2000 (8.14) and more than the 2011 Patriots (7.52). Usually teams with early season high-power offenses come back to reality. Teams who average 6+ YPP in Game 5 or later are 23-46-1 ATS (33.3%) since 2019.
• Tagovailoa prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 13-5 ATS at home and 9-10-1 ATS away in his career.
• The Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015. Miami is 34-20-3 ATS since 2016 at home – best home team ATS in that span
• Tagovailoa by time zone: 19-8-1 ATS in ET | 3-6 ATS all other time zones
• This would be Tagovailoa's second-biggest favorite of his NFL career (Miami was -14.5 vs. Houston in 2022).

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Saints at Patriots | Sunday, Oct. 8

1:00pm ET | CBS

NE -1.5 | 39

Saints

• The Saints are the only team in the NFL this season to have all four of their games go under the total. Dating to last season, the under has cashed in 10 straight times in Saints games and 13 of the team's last 14 contests.
• The streak is over. The Saints had held opponents under 21 points in 11 consecutive games entering Sunday, but Baker Mayfield and the Bucs hung 26 on them in New Orleans.
• Derek Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime now for the fifth time in his career and is still struggling to cover the spread. He was 26-34-2 ATS in those previous four seasons and 0-3-1 ATS in 2023 with Saints.
• It looks as if the Saints will be underdogs vs. the Patriots, which is a good thing for Carr. As a favorite in his career, he is 17-32-2 ATS; 51-44-1 as an underdog.
• Fourteen times in his career, Carr's team has scored fewer than 10 points in a game (the Saints scored 9 against Tampa Bay last week); Carr is 5-8 ATS in his next game, including 2-7 ATS since 2018.
• Road Warriors. Here are the Saints ML record over the past few seasons, home vs. road:
  Last 3 — Home: 7-10 SU | Road: 10-9 SU
  Last 5 — Home: 20-16 SU | Road: 23-12 SU
• The Saints are 30-13 SU, 27-15-1 ATS on the road since 2018, the second-most profitable team ATS on the road in that span (Bengals are first; second-most profitable on ML, Titans are first).
• Dennis Allen is 17-40 (30%) SU, 21-34-2 (38%) ATS in his career as a coach. Allen’s 21-34-2 ATS mark is third-worst for any coach in the last 20 years:
  147 — Jon Gruden
  146 — Mike Shanahan
  145 — Allen
• Allen-coached teams are just 11-18-1 ATS vs. teams that  are under .500 SU on the season
• In games where Carr is a favorite or a small underdog, his teams have struggled.
  As favorite or underdog of 3 or less: 34-47-3 ATS
  Dog of more than 3 points: 34-29 ATS
• Carr is 19-31-2 ATS on the road since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (123 of 123 QBs). He’s 22-22-1 ATS at home in that span.

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Patriots

• The Patriots are 3-8 SU, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• New England has struggled vs. the best and done well against some of the bad teams. Since 2016, the Patriots are 32-13 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, including 10-6 ATS since 2020. Since 2020, they are 12-16-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.

Mac Jones

• Jones is 0-13 SU when opponents score more than 24 points. He is 17-6 SU when his defense allows 24 points or less. When his team scores 21 points or less, New England is 4-13 SU.
• The Saints didn’t make the playoffs last season and have struggled early in the year. Jones is 12-7 SU vs. teams that failed to make the playoffs the previous season and 5-12 SU vs. teams that did.
• Jones is 15-20-1 ATS career – the least profitable QB over the last 20 years under Bill Belichick.
• Jones is 5-0 ATS vs. the Jets' Zack Wilson, 10-20-1 ATS vs. all other QBs.
• Jones is 12-7-1 ATS as a favorite, 3-13 ATS as an underdog. He has lost 12 consecutive starts SU and ATS as an underdog.
• Over the last 20 years, Jones is ranked 268th of 271 QBs as an underdog ATS. The only active QB worse? Justin Fields.
• Jones is 0-10 ATS as dog since the start of last season; the rest of NFL is 185-145-8 as a dog in that span.

Bill Belichick

• Since Tom Brady left, Belichick's Patriots are 26-29 SU, 25-29-1 ATS. Belichick without Brady as head coach: 44-47 SU with New England, 36-44 SU with Cleveland.
• Since 2021, Belichick is 3-15 SU as an underdog. Between 2003-15 ,he was 25-22 SU as an underdog. In that same span, Belichick is 16-5 SU as a favorite.
• Since 2020, Belichick is just 11-15 SU in September and October. Between 2003-19, he was 100-26 SU in those months.
• Since Brady left the Patriots after the 2019 season, Belichick is just 5-11 SU vs. the NFC, making him the least profitable coach SU vs. a non-conference opponent in the NFL (of 54 coaches).

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Ravens at Steelers | Sunday, Oct. 8

1:00pm ET | CBS

BAL -4.5 | 38.5

• Over the last 20 years, the underdog in this series is 28-12-3 ATS.
• In the regular season, when the line is 3 or more, the underdog is 21-3-3 ATS in this series since 2005.
• The underdog has covered 11 straight in this rivalry and is 15-1-1 ATS since 2015.
• The final margins between the Steelers and Ravens since 2020: 3, 2, 3, 1, 5, 4.
• Since the start of 2015, the two teams have played 16 games — 13 had a final margin of 7 or less.
• In the regular season, the underdog is 22-5-3 ATS when Mike Tomlin faces John Harbaugh.

Ravens

• Over the last 20 years, the Ravens are 20-20-3 ATS vs. the Steelers.
• The Ravens are 19-5 ATS as a dog since 2018 – second-best in the NFL in that span behind the Steelers. As a favorite: 30-37 ATS.

Lamar Jackson

• Jackson is 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS in his career vs. the Steelers. Pittsburgh is his only opponent where he has no ATS wins and more than two ATS losses.Jackson is the least profitable Ravens QB ATS vs. Steelers over last 20 years.
• Jackson is 15-5 SU, 10-10 ATS vs. the AFC North — 7-2 ATS on road, 3-8 ATS at home.
• Over the past three seasons, Jackson is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog but 7-15 ATS as a favorite.
• In his career, Jackson is 18-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or as an underdog. In all other spots he is 18-27 ATS. He’s 2-12 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points since 2021, worst in the NFL.
• Jackson covers the 1H spread on the road, where he’s 23-10-1 1H ATS; he's 17-17-1 1H ATS at home.
• Has Lamar lost the 1H charm?
  2018-20: 28-12-1 1H ATS
  2021-23: 12-15-1 1H ATS

John Harbaugh

• Harbaugh is 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and four games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
• Harbaugh is 148-108-9 1H ATS with $100 bettor up $3,281, most of any coach in NFL since 2005. This mark includes 23-10 1H ATS vs. the Steelers
• Harbaugh as an underdog: 54-34-3 ATS – second-best of any coach in the NFL over the last 20 years, behind only Mike Tomlin.

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Steelers

• QB Kenny Pickett is questionable to play with a bone bruise. He told reporters on Wednesday that he'd be "ready to go" by Sunday.
• Pickett is 10-6 ATS in his career. He’s covered five of his last seven games. In his two career starts vs. the Ravens, the Steelers have scored 30 total points.
• Mitch Trubisky is 31-26 SU, 27-27-3 ATS in his career. He’s 16-12-2 ATS as an underdog, including 6-3-2 ATS as a home dog in his career. In season debuts, he is 3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS.
• Since T.J. Watt’s first game in 2017, the Steelers are 62-41-2 SU, 54-49-2 ATS. They’ve played without him for just 11 games; Pittsburgh is 1-10 SU in those games. With Watt in action since drafting him in 2017, the Steelers are 57-26-2 straight up, without Watt, they’re 1-10 straight up, 4-6-1 ATS.
• Steelers' rank in yards per play since Matt Canada was named OC:
  2021: 28th
  2022: 27th
  2023: 27th
• The Steelers have played 39 consecutive games under Canada without reaching 400 yards of offense.

Mike Tomlin

• The Steelers are 55-31-4 ATS as an underdog under Tomlin, making a $100 bettor $2,180, making him the most profitable coach as a dog in the last 20 years. Pittsburgh hasn't finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog since 2016 and its only happened twice under Tomlin.
• Tomlin is 18-15 SU, 16-14-3 ATS vs. John Harbaugh.
  As a favorite: 5-12-1 ATS
  As an underdog: 11-2-2 ATS
• This is also a classic Tomlin spot as an underdog:
  Dog: 45-45 SU, 55-31-4 ATS
  Home dog: 15-10 SU, 17-5-3 ATS
  Dog vs. AFC North: 18-14 SU, 22-8-2 ATS
  Dog after a SU loss: 21-10 ATS (53-40 ATS after a SU loss overall)
• Tomlin is 44-20-2 ATS as an underdog from Week 5 forward, including 36-30 SU on the moneyline. This includes a 8-4 SU record as a dog in Week 5 or later vs. the Ravens.
• Tomlin is 20-4-1 ATS (83%) as a division underdog beyond Week 4.
• The Steelers under Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 32-21-3 ATS.

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Bengals at Cardinals | Sunday, Oct. 8

4:05pm ET | FOX

CIN -3 | 45

Bengals

• The Bengals enter Week 5 0-3-1 ATS.
• In their last 20 regular-season games heading into 2023, the Bengals were 16-3-1 ATS. This season: 0-3-1 ATS.
• The Bengals have scored a league-low 49 points. Since 1990, only one out of 64 teams to score fewer than 50 points in their first four games have made the playoffs (1992 Chargers).
• Cincinnati is averaging 0.95 points per drive this season, lowest in the NFL.
• The Bengals are one of six teams without an ATS win this season (Bears, Saints, Panthers, Giants, Broncos).
• Cincinnati is the seventh team since 2002 to open a season with two straight division losses. The previous six teams missed the playoffs: 2020 Lions and Dolphins, 2019 Commanders, 2017 Browns, 2013 Vikings, 2003 Chargers.
• The Bengals started 0-2 SU this year. Since 1990, 31 of 270 teams (11.5%) that started 0-2 made the playoffs. The Bengals did so last season. The 1993 Cowboys, 2001 Patriots and 2007 Giants actually went on to win the Super Bowl after starting 0-2.
• Cincinnati had a win total of 11.5 in the preseason — the team's first double-digit win total since 1989 (ended NFL's second-longest drought). The Bengals are 1-3 SU to open the season.

Joe Burrow

• Since he was drafted, Burrow is the second-most profitable QB ATS in the NFL behind Jared Goff, but he has not covered the spread in five straight games, the longest such streak of his career (1-6-1 ATS last seven starts).
• Burrow is 1-of-10 passing on attempts 20+ yards downfield this season. His 10% completion percentage in such scenarios is the lowest in the NFL out of 34 quarterbacks to have had at least 50 pass attempts this season. In fact, Burrow has the same number of completions of 20 yards or more as Mike White and Jameis Winston.
• Burrow is 9-9 ATS vs. the AFC North and 23-11-1 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.
• He is 16-4 SU and 16-3-1 ATS in his last 20 games vs. non-divisional opponents.
• In his career, Burrow is 35-17-1 (67%) against the second-half spread, the best 2H ATS mark in the NFL since he was drafted.
• Burrow is 19-10-1 ATS on the road/neutral field in his career, but he’s lost three straight starts in this spot SU/ATS dating to last season. He’s never dropped four straight.
• This will be Burrow’s third career NFL start in MST or PST time zone. He’s 2-0 SU ATS out West. He never made a MST/PST start at LSU.

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Cardinals

• With Josh Dobbs, the Cardinals offense ranks 9th in EPA/play this year.
• The Cardinals played the 49ers last week. Teams after playing the 49ers are 2-18 SU, 4-14-2 ATS since the start of last season, including 17-38 SU, 21-32-2 ATS since 2020.
• Are the Cardinals due for regression? Over the last 20 years, teams that won four games or fewer the previous season and are covering the spread by 6 PPG or more the following year are 98-114-9 ATS (46%). In September and October, that falls to 55-70-5 ATS (44%). Teams that start 3-0 ATS and fail to cover Week 4 are 17-24-2 ATS in Week 5.
• In Week 5, Arizona got a little more popular, but not by much:
  Week 1: ARI +7 at WAS, 22% tickets (ARI covered)
  Week 2: ARI +4.5 vs. NYG, 18% tickets (ARI covered)
  Week 3: ARI +12.5 vs. DAL, 18% tickets (ARI covered)
  Week 4: ARI +15 at SF, 36% tickets (ARI didn’t cover)
• The Cardinals are in a good spot this week. They were double-digit underdogs last week but didn’t cover the spread. Over the last 20 years, teams that are listed as an underdog in their next game are 133-93-5 ATS (59%).
• The team with lowest win total opens this year 3-1 ATS. In 17-game schedule era, five teams to have a win total of 4.5 or less are 40-31 ATS.

Lowest win total in 17-game schedule era (since 2021):
4 — 2021 Texans (3 wins, 8-9 ATS)
4.5 — 2023 Cardinals (1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS)
4.5 — 2022 Falcons (7 wins, 9-8 ATS)
4.5 — 2022 Texans (3 wins, 9-8 ATS)
4.5 — 2021 Lions (4 wins, 11-6 ATS)

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Eagles at Rams | Sunday, Oct. 8

4:05pm ET | FOX

PHI -4.5 | 50.5

Eagles

• The Eagles are 4-0 SU for the third time in the last 30 years:
  2023: 4-0 SU
  2022: Lost Super Bowl
  2004: Lost Super Bowl
• The Eagles are the first team to lose the Super Bowl and start the next season 4-0 since the 1998 Packers. Six teams have lost a Super Bowl and opened the next season 5-0 SU.
• The Eagles are 4-0 SU and are now road favorites in L.A. Undefeated teams in their fifth game or later are 21-8-2 ATS as an underdog but 83-99-6 ATS as a favorite over the last 20 years, which includes 37-48-1 ATS as a road favorite.
• Both the Eagles and the Rams are traveling three time zones this week to play this game. The home team in that spot is 87-105-5 ATS (45%). The assumption is that it’s because they are favored by too many points. Well …
  Favorite: 62-67-4 ATS | Underdog: 25-37-1 ATS
• The Eagles have just 11 sacks through four games this season (T-16th). Philly finished with 70 sacks last season – third-most in the regular season all-time. The issue isn’t pressure this year; their 54 total pressures is the most in the NFL and they are top-five in pressure percentage.

Jalen Hurts

• Hurts has won each of last five regular-season starts in which Eagles trailed by 10+ points.
• Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
  Home: 14-6-1 ATS (No. 2 of 91 QBs since 2020)
  Road/neutral: 8-13 ATS (88th of 91 QBs since 2020)
• Hurts has been money as a favorite. His teams are 25-5 SU as a favorite with him as the starter, including 25-3 SU when the Eagles are favored by 3 points or more (23-2 SU in last 25 starts).
• Hurts has won 10 consecutive starts SU in the regular season. He has won 21 out of his last 22 regular-season starts. QBs to win 21 of 22 starts:
  Jalen Hurts (2021-2023)
  Patrick Mahomes (2019-2021)
  Tom Brady (twice)
  Peyton Manning (twice)
  Joe Montana (1989-1993)
  Jim McMahon (1984-1987)
  Daryle Lamonica (1963-1968)
• Hurts has made one start in PST in his career — a 33-22 loss to the Raiders in 2021. He’s 27-10 SU in all other starts.
• Hurts doesn’t love facing good offenses. The Eagles are 5-8 SU vs. teams scoring 24+ PPG and 19-3 SU under that mark.

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Rams

• Puka Nacua is the only player in NFL history to record 500+ receiving yards through his first four career games.
• Matthew Stafford is a league-worst 2-10-1 against the second-half spread since the start of last season. Over the last five years, he is 19-37-2 2H ATS — the second-worst mark in the NFL (ahead of Justin Herbert).
• Sean McVay’s teams tend to perform better early in the season vs. late:
  September/October: 35-14 SU
  November on: 34-29 SU
• McVay is 24-16-1 ATS vs. the NFC West and 34-34-2 ATS vs. all other divisions.
• Stafford hasn’t finished above .500 ATS in a season since 2018; he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, his worst season since 2013. The Rams and Stafford are 3-0-1 ATS this season.
• Stafford has a difficult time beating good teams. He’s 31-63 SU and 36-56-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, making him the least profitable QB SU and ATS in this spot over the last 20 years. He is 8-6 SU and 6-8 ATS with the Rams in this spot.
• McVay as an underdog: 13-21 SU, but 19-13-2 ATS (24-10 in a 6-point teaser). He’s covered four straight as a home dog.
• This week, the Rams become the third team in the last 20 years to be a home underdog of more than a FG without an ATS loss on the season in their fifth game or later. The other two: 2022 Falcons +3.5 (won outright) and the 2015 Steelers +5.5 (won outright).

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Jets at Broncos | Sunday, Oct. 8

4:25pm ET | CBS

DEN -2.5 | 43

Jets

• Some relief coming? Teams are 23-13 SU the week after facing the Chiefs over the last three seasons.
• Last season, Zach Wilson became the first player since the NFL merger to record the worst passer rating two consecutive seasons. In 2023, he currently has the third-worst passer rating in the NFL.
• Wilson and the Jets have struggled to win against good offensive teams:
  20 PPG or higher: 3-12 SU
  19.9 PPG or less: 5-4 SU
• With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets are starting a "backup" QB for the rest of the season. They have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB. They are 3-27 SU, 11-19 ATS over the last decade when starting a backup QB.
• Zach Wilson has the lowest EPA/play of the 36 quarterbacks to run 300+ plays since the start of last season,
• Wilson is coming off his first career game with 2 passing TDs and no INTs. He’s 7-5 ATS the game after throwing no interceptions.
• The jets have had six different head coaches over the last 20 years, but none have been profitable ATS than Robert Saleh, who is 17-21 ATS since arriving in New York.
• This will be Wilson’s third game in a MST or PST time zone, with all three against the Broncos. In the two previous games, the Jets scored 16 total points.

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Broncos

• The Broncos become the 18th team to start winless through four games and be listed as the favorite in their fifth game. Last to do it were the Falcons and Texans in 2020. These teams are just 9-8 ATS over the last 20 years.
• The Broncos now have the worst defense ever tracked by DVOA through four games. Second-worst: the 2008 Lions, who went 0-16.
• The Broncos defense has allowed 13 passing TDs through four games. Only three defenses have allowed more than 13 through four games all-time and none since 1979. Opposing offenses are completing 78.1% percent of their passes against Denver — the highest through four games all-time. Denver’s 150 points allowed is the eighth-most through four games all-time.
• The Broncos are allowing 37.5 PPG this season, most in the NFL. Denver would be just the fourth team in the last 20 years to allow 35+ PPG and be listed as a favorite in their fifth game or later. The previous three failed to cover the spread (1-2 SU).
• Teams are 21-14-1 SU, 20-16 ATS after playing the Bears since the start of last season, and 95-78-4 ATS since 2012. Chicago is 1 of 5 teams with $1,000+ profit ATS as a previous opponent since 2012. Teams after playing in Soldier Field are 95-58-2 ATS (62%) over the last 20 years, making a $100 bettor $3,230. Next closest? Jaguars at $1,590.
• Russell Wilson is 11-22 SU over the last three seasons. He was 107-52-1 SU in his first 9 seasons in the NFL. Wilson is 2-10 SU in his last 12 starts and 3-13 SU in his last 16 starts for the Broncos.
• Wilson with Seahawks vs. Broncos:
  DEN: 5-14 SU (worst in NFL), 6-12-1 ATS (fourth-worst)
  SEA: 113-60-1 SU, 90-77-7 ATS
• Most profitable coaches ATS last 20 years: 1. Bill Belichick, 2. Mike McCarthy, 3. Sean Payton. With an ATS loss Sunday, Payton would fall to fourth behind Mike Zimmer.
• Payton has gone seven straight years with his team above .500 ATS (2015-21). In 16 seasons, his teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total.
• The Broncos' home games have been an under-fest. They are 12-7 the last three years and 43-26-1 since 2015 – all eight years .500 or better to the under at home.

Broncos first four games, last two seasons (Payton vs. Hackett):
SU: Payton 1-3, Hackett 2-2
ATS: Payton 0-3-1, Hackett 1-3
Yards: Payton 951, Hackett 905
Points: Payton 100-150, Hackett 66-68
TD: Payton 12, Hackett 6
Off EPA/play: Payton 11th, Hackett 22nd
Off SR: Payton 13th, Hackett 29th
Def EPA/play: Payton 32nd, Hackett 7th
Def SR: Payton 30th, Hackett 9th

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Chiefs at Vikings | Sunday, Oct. 8

4:25pm ET | CBS

KC -3.5 | 53

Chiefs

• Patrick Mahomes had a tough Week 4. How bad? Zach Wilson is the only opposing QB to have more completions, more passing yards, more TD passes and fewer interceptions than Mahomes in a Mahomes start — college or pro (out of 127 total starts, including postseason).
• After Mahomes throws for fewer than 200 yards, the Chiefs are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS.
• Explosion coming? Mahomes has played three games where he threw an INT and 225 passing yards or fewer in his last game. The Chiefs are 3-0 SU/ATS, scoring 40, 51 and 48 pts.
• Mahomes has had 12 passes dropped so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, seventh-most in the NFL.
• Mahomes in his career is 20-0 SU on the road/neutral as a favorite of more than 5 points. As a road/neutral favorite of over a field goal he is 24-5 SU.
• Mahomes' starts by point spread:
  Favorite: 88 (43-44-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
  -10 or higher: 24 (10-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 74 (41-32-1 ATS)
  -3 or less/or dog: 26 (19-6-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 72 (32-39-1 ATS)
• Mahomes is just 6-12 ATS in his last 18 games following a SU win going back to last year, the least profitable QB ATS in the NFL.
• Mahomes is 21-4 SU, 13-11-1 ATS vs. the NFC in his career. He’s 14-0 SU as a favorite of more than 4 points vs. NFC teams.

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Vikings

• The Vikings are 1-3 with Kirk Cousins leading the league in passing TDs (11), third in passing yards and Justin Jefferson leading the league in receiving yards (543) and receiving first downs (26).
• Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last year during the regular season. Minnesota has now played five straight one-score games dating to last season and are 1-3 SU this year.

Worst point differential among 13+ win teams since the merger (including postseason):
2022 Vikings -10 2023: 8.5 win total (1-3 SU, ATS)
1979 Oilers +26 1980: 11-6 SU (WC), 6-9-2 ATS
1990 Raiders +31 1991: 9-8 SU (WC), 8-9 ATS (U10 win total)
1993 Chiefs +31 1994: 9-8 SU (WC), 9-8 ATS (U9.5 win total)

• Most receiving yards Weeks 1-4 since 1970 merger
  2011: Wes Welker, 616
  1999: Terry Glenn, 544
  2023: Justin Jefferson, 543

Kirk Cousins

• Cousins is 70-73-2 ATS in his career – 30-28 ATS w/ WAS, 40-45-2 ATS w/ MIN. Since 2020 – home: 10-18 ATS | road: 13-11-1 ATS. His 10-18 ATS home mark since 2020 is worst in the NFL.
• The Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. They covered Week 18 vs. Chicago and last week vs. Carolina.
• Over the last 20 years, the over is 83-61-1 (58%) in Cousins starts, making him the most profitable QB to the over in that span. He’s 34-19-1 to the over since 2020.
• In his NFL career, Cousins is 38-25 ATS after a SU loss, the fifth-most profitable QB in that spot over the last 20 years. When he’s off a SU win, he’s 28-41-2 ATS, which ranks 232nd out of 233 QBs over the last 20 years, just ahead of Jay Cutler.
• How Cousins performs based on time of day:
  1p ET or earlier: 49-39-2 ATS
  4p ET or later: 21-34 ATS
• Cousins is 10-23-1 SU vs. teams with a 75%+ win percentage, including 4-12-1 SU as a Viking.

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Cowboys at 49ers | Sunday, Oct. 8

8:20pm ET | NBC

SF -3.5 | 45

Cowboys

• Mike McCarthy has excelled ATS early in the season. He’s 68-47-3 ATS in September and October — second-best in the NFL in the last 20 years behind just Bill Belichick.
• Since 2021, the Cowboys are 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in night games, the most profitable team ATS at night in that span.

Dak Prescott

• Prescott has a 5.4-yard average depth per target this season, the lowest mark of 34 qualified QBs. Last year it was 8.2, 10th in the NFL.
• Prescott is 4-7-1 ATS in MST or PST time zones, but he’s 54-40-1 ATS in EST and CST.
• Prescott as an underdog: 12-16 SU, 15-13 ATS. When he gets 3.5 points or more he’s 9-6 ATS.
• Prescott has lost his last five starts at night as an underdog dating to 2019. At night, he is 20-5 SU as a favorite and 3-7 SU as an underdog.
• Overall, Prescott is 23-12 SU, 21-13-1 ATS in night games. He’s the sixth-most profitable QB ATS over the last 20 years at night. The highest SU win percentage in night games, last 20 years (min. 20 starts): Peyton Manning, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, Russell Wilson, Prescott
• Prescott does well vs. bad teams. He is 32-10 SU, 27-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 21-21 SU, 17-25 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. The 27-13-2 ATS mark is the second-best in the last 20 years behind just Brady.
• Prescott is 25-10 ATS vs. NFC East teams (+$1,378), 33-37-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$582).
• Prescott has faced the 49ers four times in his career. He started 2-0 SU/ATS and has since lost two playoff games SU/ATS vs. San Francisco.

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49ers

• The 49ers have won 14 consecutive regular-season games, one short of the franchise record (1989-90).
• The 49ers have covered the spread in nine consecutive home games dating to last season, the longest current home cover streak in the NFL and the 49ers' longest home cover streak since 1960.

Brock Purdy

• Brock Purdy has made three starts at night for the 49ers. He is 3-0 SU/ATS in those games. Purdy currently has the most wins without a SU loss at night in the last 20 years.
• QBs 3-0 ATS or better at night last 20 years: Kenny Pickett 6-0 ATS, Purdy 3-0 ATS, Matt Leinart 3-0 ATS.
• Purdy was 6-0 SU at home in night games at Iowa State.
• Purdy is the first QB in NFL history to complete at least 95% of his passes in a game (min. 20 attempts) while also rushing for a TD.
• Purdy in October or later: 25-12 SU at Iowa State and 8-1 SU with the 49ers (33-13 SU).
• The 49ers have scored 30+ points in seven straight regular-season games, the longest such streak for an NFC team since the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams in 1999-2000 (14).
• Purdy is 11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS in his career – 11-0 SU in games he finished.
• The longest win streaks to start career – starting QBs since 1966:
  Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 15 (2005)
  Mike Tomczak, CHI 10 (1987)
  Mike Livingston, KC 10 (1982)
  Brock Purdy, SF 9 (2023)
• Only six QBs in NFL history had a streak of 10+ wins in their first or second season since the merger.
  2004-05 Ben Roethlisberger, 15
  1983-84 Dan Marino, 14
  2019 Lamar Jackson, 11
  2016 Dak Prescott, 11
  1999 Peyton Manning, 11
  1984 John Elway, 10

Christian McCaffrey

• In games McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 16-1 SU, 13-4 ATS.
• McCaffrey has a TD in 13 consecutive games, a 49ers record. The NFL mark is held by John Riggins and O.J. Simpson (15).
• McCaffrey's odds to score a TD in the first four games this season: -105, -160, -240, -250

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Packers at Raiders | Monday, Oct. 9

4:25pm ET | ESPN

LV -2 | 45

Packers

• Should we expect a low-scoring game? When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 92-47-1 (66%) since 2018, including 16-5 so far this season.
• Monday Night Football will be the Packers' first game this season as a favorite. The Packers had not been underdogs in their first four games since 1980 prior to this year.
• Matt LaFleur is 45-30 ATS in his career as Packers coach. Since his first season with Green Bay in 2019, he’s the second-most profitable coach ATS in the NFL (Dan Campbell at 26-12 ATS).
• LaFleur is 17-10 ATS in his career at night. Over the last 20 years, that’s the eighth-best of any head coach (out of 136). He is also the second-best coach ATS at night since 2019, behind only Frank Reich.
• The Packers went 5-6 SU as favorites under LaFleur last season. Week 5 would be their first game as a favorite this year if they close as such. Between 2019-21, Green Bay is 33-9 SU as a favorite under LaFleur.
• LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 16-6 ATS as a 'dog — 12-5 with Aaron Rodgers and 4-0 with Jordan Love. As a favorite, he is 29-24 ATS.
• LaFleur is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with the Packers on Monday Night Football. Coaches 5-0 SU or better on MNF in the last 20 years: Jim Harbaugh (6-0) and LaFleur.

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Raiders

• Josh McDaniels started his career 6-0 SU/ATS in Denver. Since that run, McDaniels-coached teams are 12-31 SU and 16-27 ATS.
• If Brian Hoyer gets the start at QB for the Raiders, things aren’t looking so great. He is 16-25 SU as a starter and has lost 12 consecutive starts SU.
• In the last decade, the Raiders have only had to start a backup QB 10 times entering this week, with the last time coming in 2017 prior to Aidan O’Connell’s start last week. The Raiders are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in those 10 games.
• Josh Jacobs has 166 rushing yards on 62 attempts in 2023 (2.7 Y/A). He’s never finished a season with below 3.9 Y/A. In Week 2, he rushed for -2 yards on 9 carries, becoming the first defending rushing champ since the 1970 merger to finish with negative rushing yards in a game.
• There are 23 players with 50+ rushing attempts this season: Jacobs’ 2.7 Y/A is tied with Rhamonre Stevenson for the lowest mark in the NFL.
• The Raiders' home/road marks since moving to Las Vegas:
  Raiders at home in Vegas: 11-15 SU, 13-13 ATS
  On road/neutral: 14-15 SU, 12-17 ATS
  LV is most profitable road/neutral team on ML since moving to Vegas (+$707)
• McDaniels-coached teams fade late:
  11-14 SU in September/October
  7-17 SU in November or later
• This is the ninth night game in Vegas since the Raiders moved there in 2020. They are just 3-5 SU/ATS in the previous eight games.
• Jimmy Garoppolo is 16-8 SU and 18-6 ATS as an underdog in his NFL career. As a favorite, he is 29-12 SU, 20-20-1 ATS.
• Most games above .500 SU as an underdog, last 20 years:
  Jimmy Garoppolo: 8 (16-8)
  Ben Roethlisberger: 4 (38-34)
  Tom Brady: 4 (25-21)
  Patrick Mahomes: 4 (7-3)
• Garoppolo is 7-9 ATS in September and 31-17-1 ATS in all other months.
• Garoppolo in night games is 13-7 SU, 11-9 ATS.

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NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️

Biggest NFL Week 5 Public Sides
Dolphins (-12.5) vs. NYG					90% of bets
Lions (-9.5) vs. CAR					75% of bets

Biggest NFL Week 5 Line Moves
Dolphins (-4.5 to -12.5) vs. NYG
Lions (-5 to -9.5) vs. CAR

NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️

Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Week 5
Giants at Dolphins (-12.5)					180k bets
Ravens at Steelers (+4.5)					120k bets

Biggest NFL Week 5 Public Totals
NO-NE (O/U: 39)					90% of bets to under
KC-MIN (O/U: 53)					88% of bets to over

System: At this stage of the season, it's profitable to back teams without an ATS win.

Matches: CHI, NO, CAR, NYG

$$$: Back winless ATS underdogs

the team is the Dog

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

the team's ATS win % is between 0% and 0%

$3,614

WON

216-168-9

RECORD

56%

WIN%

View System

System: All three teams got blown out in Week 4. The bounce back has worked well, going 77-52-1 ATS last 20 years.

Matches: CIN, PIT, NE

$$$: Lost by 20 since 2020

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 season

the opponent's previous game margin is between -19 and 100

the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season

the team's previous game margin is between -100 and -20

$1,898

WON

77-52-1

RECORD

60%

WIN%

View System

System: Poor offense usually leads to a better performance in their next game.

Matches: NE, NYG, CIN

$$$: Bet teams after 3 points or less prev game

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 or 2017-18 or 2016-17 or 2015-16 or 2014-15 season

the team's game number is between 2 and 100

the team's 1 Game Points streak is between 0 and 3

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

$2,256

WON

75-48-4

RECORD

61%

WIN%

View System

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet, which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

• Not much movement at the top. Two Jets in Top 10 is bit of a shocker.
• Biggest hits of Week 4? Josh Whyle +1900, CJ Uzomah +1600, Deven Thompkins +1400.
• TD scorers with minus odds after Week 4: 24-23 (51%).

Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of a game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each week in 2023.

• DEN Jaleel McLaughlin with another +4000 hit. Second spot now with +98U in 2023.
• 4 DEFENSES in the top 10. Panthers hit BIG at +5500.
• LAR Kyren Williams (+26.5U) and McLaughlin are only two in top 10 to have scored twice for First TD.

League Trends ⤵️

All About Movement

Line Move 2023 Update

• Following the line movement is 36-21 SU, 30-24-3 ATS vs. closing line so far in 2023 (ex. -5 to -6). This was 50 games under .500 ATS the previous two seasons.
• Teams with a line move of 2 points or more (ex. -5 to -7) are 17-7 SU, 15-8-1 ATS in 2023.
• In games this season where the total rose from the opening to closing lines (ex. 55 to 55.5), the over is 9-8 this season.
• In games this season where the total fell from the opening to closing lines (ex. 55.5 to 55), the under is 27-18.
  The market line movement has done an incredible job at predicting unders in the NFL recently. Since 2021, unders are 204-157-1 (57%) when the total has dropped between the opening and closing lines, with a $100 bettor up $2,980, a +8% ROI.

How valuable is getting the best of the number?
Last 5 years (2019-23):
+ Following the line movement is 487-510-22 ATS (49%) vs. closing line.
+ Following the line movement is 577-417-25 ATS (58%) vs. opening line.

Under The Radar

Unders Are Dominant

• In the last 22 NFL regular season weeks, there have only been three where there were more overs than unders for full game totals.

3 overs, 12 unders, 7 pushes

Off Primetime

Good Teams

• Both Lions and Seahawks won by 14+ points in primetime this past week. Teams to win by 14 or more on the road in primetime the previous week are 88-44 SU, 73-57-2 ATS (56%). Including, 73-51-8 (59%) to the under in those games.

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Biggest Super Bowl Riser

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 66-1 (TB was 80-1 to win SB last week & 150-1 in Week 2)

Biggest Super Bowl Faller

Cincinnati Bengals: 35-1 (CIN was 18-1 to win SB last week & opened 11-1 prior to Week 1)

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

NFL Win Total Grid & Progress

Trending Up 📈
Buccaneers					3-1	Win Total: 6.5
49ers					4-0	Win Total: 10.5
Seahawks					3-1	Win Total: 8.5
Eagles					4-0	Win Total: 11.5
Cowboys					3-1	Win Total: 9.5
Lions					3-1	Win Total: 9.5
Dolphins					3-1	Win Total: 9.5
Texans					2-2	Win Total: 6.5
Colts					2-2	Win Total: 6.5
Raiders					2-2	Win Total: 6.5
Commanders					2-2	Win Total: 6.5
Ravens					3-1	Win Total: 10.5
Bills					3-1	Win Total: 10.5
Packers					2-2	Win Total: 7.5
Titans					2-2	Win Total: 7.5
Chiefs					3-1	Win Total: 11.5

Trending Down 📉
Falcons					2-2	Win Total: 8.5
Steelers					2-2	Win Total: 8.5
Cardinals					1-3	Win Total: 4.5
Browns					2-2	Win Total: 9.5
Jaguars					2-2	Win Total: 9.5
Chargers					2-2	Win Total: 9.5
Saints					2-2	Win Total: 9.5
Rams					1-3	Win Total: 6.5
Patriots					1-3	Win Total: 7.5
Giants					1-3	Win Total: 7.5
Broncos					1-3	Win Total: 8.5
Vikings					1-3	Win Total: 8.5
Jets					1-3	Win Total: 9.5
Bengals					1-3	Win Total: 11.5
Panthers					0-4	Win Total: 7.5
Bears					0-4	Win Total: 7.5

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Odds	3rd In Odds
NFL MVP	Josh Allen (+325)	Patrick Mahomes (+500)	Tua Tagovailoa (+500)
Offensive POY	Christian McCaffrey (+210)	Justin Jefferson (+550)	Tyreek Hill (+550)
Defensive POY	Micah Parsons (+175)	Myles Garrett (+250)	T.J. Watt (+500)
Offensive ROY	CJ Stroud (+175)	Bijan Robinson (+400)	Puka Nacua (+450)
Defensive ROY	Jalen Carter (-125)	Devon Witherspoon (+300)	Will Anderson (+800)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (-250)	Tua Tagovailoa (+400)	Lamar Jackson (+1400)
Coach Of The Year	Dan Campbell (+400)	Mike McDaniel (+400)	Kyle Shanahan (+1000)
Updated as of September 26th

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• The new MVP favorite is now Josh Allen after he beat the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa.
• Devon Witherspoon had a massive Monday Night Football game against the Giants. He moved from 22-1 to 3-1 to win DROY. He is now the second-favorite behind Jalen Carter.
• After Damar Hamlin played his first game of the year in Week 4, he went from +100 to -250 to win Comeback Player of the Year.

Trivia Instructions

For this weeks trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: Desmond Ridder is 0-8 against the first-half spread in his career. Over the last decade, name the least profitable starting QB against the first-half spread. Hint: He's currently a backup QB in the NFL.

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