NFL Week 6 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Unders, public sides and the 49ers seem to be the three consistent staples in the NFL through five weeks. With San Francisco the favorites and Brock Purdy rising in the MVP markets, let's talk Week 6.

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.

Welcome to Week 6 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, October 15, 11 a.m. ET.

Public Darlings

Hot Start

The betting public (51% betting tickets or more) has gone 638-672-28 ATS (48.7%) over the previous five seasons (2018-22), losing a $100 bettor $6,871. In 2023, they are 44-27-3 ATS, +$1,287 – the best start for the public through Week 5 since 2005.

Across the board this year, the public has come out on top.

This season:

• 51%+ – 44-27-3 ATS
• 60%+ – 27-15-3 ATS
• 66%+ – 16-9-2 ATS
• 70%+ – 9-6 ATS

Greatest Show on Surf

Miami Chalk

The Dolphins are double-digit favorites for the second consecutive week after closing as 13-point favorites last week against the Giants. They are now listed as high as -14 against the Panthers.

The last time Miami closed as double-digit favorites in consecutive games was back in Week 5 and 6 of the 1995 season against the Colts and Bengals with Dan Marino.

Miami closed with 81% of the bets last week vs. the Giants. As of now, they are receiving 89% of the bets vs. Panthers. No team has closed with 80% of the bets or more in consecutive games since the Patriots, twice, during the 2016 season.

Going For A Win Streak

One More?

The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going a pathetic 5-19-1 ATS vs. the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,414 – that is the least profitable team vs. their own division in the NFL in that span.

Streaks On The Line

The Riddler

The Falcons have struggled in the first half under Desmond Ridder, going 0-9 against the first half spread in his career. They are failing to cover 1H spread by 6.3 PPG. Dating back to college, Ridder has lost 11 straight 1H ATS.

Ridder has still never lost a home game as a starting QB in college or the NFL, going 31-0 SU, 19-12 ATS.

Mac Repairs

Patriots Fail as Dogs

Mac Jones is 3-13 ATS as an underdog. Jones has lost 12 consecutive starts SU and ATS as an underdog.

Over the last 20 years, Mac is ranked 269th of 271 QBs as an underdog ATS. He is the least profitable active QB as a dog ATS. Mac is 0-10 ATS as a dog since start of last season – the rest of the NFL is 192-152-8 as a dog in that span.

Sweet Spot

Hurts So Good

As a favorite of four pts or more, Jalen Hurts is 20-1 SU in his career. His only loss? To Taylor Heinicke.

New Yuck, New Yuck

Off Broadway

Since 2019, the Giants and Jets have played a total of 25 night games. They are a combined 2-23 SU in those games.

It's How You Finish

Tale of Two Halves

For Justin Herbert, it's a tale of two halves.

First Half

• Herbert is 32-22 1H ATS, he’s 15-7 1H ATS since start of last season – third-best mark in the NFL.
• Herbert is 11-2 1H ATS in night games – second-best mark since 2005, behind just Peyton Manning.

Second Half

• Herbert is 15-34-5 against the second half spread in his career. Since 2005, he's 247th of 250 QBs in 2H ATS profitability.
• He can’t hold a lead: he’s 7-24-2 2H ATS when leading at HT (-$1,755, worst in NFL since he was drafted)
• When he’s had the lead at the half in a night game, he’s 1-9-1 2H ATS. In night games, Herbert is 2-10-1 2H ATS.

Broncos at Chiefs | Thursday, Oct 12

8:20pm ET | Amazon

KC -10.5 | 47.5

Broncos

NFL first half unders are now 82-58-2 (58%) in night games since 2021, including 23-14-1 (63%) on TNF in that span.

Thursday home teams are just 21-35 ATS since 2020, including 19-31 ATS in night Thursday games (worst of any day of week for home teams at night).

Bet home teams on Thursday night? Since 2020, they are only 23-27 SU. They are 87-59 SU on all other nights.

The Chiefs have beaten the Broncos in 15 consecutive games (10-5 ATS). A $100 bettor would be up $883 betting all 15 games.

Longest active win streak one opponent vs. another: NE 15 vs. NYJ, KC 15 vs. DEN

The Chiefs' 15-game win streak vs. Denver is tied for the third-longest streak over one opponent all-time.

The last time Denver beat KC was Sept. 17, 2015 at Arrowhead. QB Patrick Mahomes was celebrating his 20th birthday after having just started his sophomore season at Texas Tech. Peyton Manning is still the last Denver quarterback to take down Kansas City.

Bet double-digit division dogs early in the season. They are 85-54-6 ATS last 20 years in November or earlier.

Broncos' Defense

• The Broncos' defense has allowed a passer rating of 124.6 through five games, the fifth-highest mark in the Super Bowl era.
• Opponent completion percentage: 77.3% = highest through five games in Super Bowl era.
• Denver’s 181 points allowed is tied for the second-most through five games in the Super Bowl era. (1. 2013 NYG, 182, T2. 2023 DEN 181, T2. 2012 TEN, 181)
• The Broncos are allowing 36.2 PPG this season, most in the NFL.
• The Broncos are the first team since 2020 Cowboys to allow 35+ PPG entering their sixth game or later. Eight teams have played a game with this bad a defense in the sixth game or later in the last 20 years. They are 6-2 ATS.

Russell Wilson

• Wilson is 11-23 SU over the last three seasons. He was 107-52-1 SU in his first nine seasons in the NFL.
• Wilson is 2-11 SU in his last 13 starts and 3-14 SU in his last 17 starts for the Broncos.
• Wilson is 2-9 SU in his last 11 road games. The worst road/neutral ML mark of 67 QBs since start of last season.
• Wilson with Seahawks vs. Broncos
  • DEN: 5-15 SU, 6-13-1 ATS
    SU mark is worst in NFL, ATS is fourth-worst
  • SEA: 113-60-1 SU, 90-77-7 ATS

Sean Payton

• Most profitable coaches ATS in the last 20 years: 1. Belichick, 2. McCarthy, 3. Zimmer, 4. Payton
• Payton fell behind Zimmer after the loss to the Jets.
• Payton has gone seven straight years with his team above .500 ATS (2015-21).
• In 16 seasons, his teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total.
• Broncos First Five Games – Last Two Seasons
  • Payton vs. Hackett
    • SU: 1-4 vs. 2-3
    • ATS: 0-4-1 vs. 1-4
    • Yards: 1,641 vs. 1,718
    • Pts: 121-181 vs. 75-80
    • TD: 14 vs. 6
    • Off EPA/play: 13th vs. 26th
    • Off SR: 15th vs. 29th
    • Def EPA/play: 32nd vs. 3rd
    • Def SR: 29th vs. 7th

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Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes

• Mahomes is 11-0 SU, 6-5 ATS vs. the Broncos in his career.
• Mahomes (11-0 vs. Broncos) and Andrew Luck (11-0 vs. Titans) are the only players in the Super Bowl era with more than 10 QB wins and no losses against a single opponent.
• Mahomes has had 12 passes dropped so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, seventh-most in the NFL.
• Mahomes starts by point spread
  • Favorite: 89 (44-44-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
  • Home: 23-26-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 27-18-1 ATS
  • 1p ET: 13-16-1 ATS | After 1p slate: 37-28-1 ATS
  • -10 or higher: 24 (10-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 75 (42-32-1 ATS)
  • -3 or less/or dog: 26 (19-6-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 73 (33-39-1 ATS)
• Mahomes as a double-digit favorite: 22-2 SU, 10-13-1 ATS
  • Only losses to: Derek Carr and Jacoby Brissett
• Mahomes vs. AFC West: 27-3 SU, 15-14-1 ATS
• As a favorite of seven or more vs. AFC West: 18-1 SU, 8-10-1 ATS
• Mahomes is just 7-12 ATS in his last 19 games after a SU win dating back to 2022, the least profitable QB ATS in the NFL.
• Mahomes has played 36 total night games in his NFL career. The Chiefs are 26-10 SU, 19-16-1 ATS. Mahomes is 14-1 SU in his last 15 night games.
• This will be Mahomes’ 12 night game vs. the AFC West. He's 11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS. His only loss came in 2018 against Philip Rivers and Chargers.
• Mahomes is 29-22-1 to the under in his home starts. He's 9-3 to the under at home over the last two seasons, the second-most profitable home QB to the under behind Lamar Jackson.
• Highest SU win percentage in night games in the last 20 years (min. 20 starts)
  • Peyton, Mahomes, Brady, Wentz, Russ, Brees, Dak

Even with all of the Chiefs' SU success vs. the Broncos, they’ve lost three straight games vs. DEN against the spread (1-4 ATS last 5). KC’s first three-game ATS losing streak vs. DEN since 2013. KC hasn’t lost four straight ATS vs. DEN since 2002-04 (4 straight).

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Ravens vs. Titans | Sunday, Oct. 15

9:30am ET | NFL Network

BAL -5.5 | 42.5

Ravens

Let’s look at a few facts and trends from the 41 total international games:

• The under has a small edge at 21-20. Where the value has been is at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where the over is 5-2 (BUF-JAC went under the total there last week).
• Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 30-10-1 straight up and 26-15 against the spread.
• Favorites at Wembley Stadium are 18-7-1 SU, 15-11 ATS.
• The public has struggled a bit overseas. Teams with 51%+ of tickets in international games are just 19-21 ATS.
• Favorites of over a FG or more overseas are 24-7-1 SU, 20-12 ATS.
• Teams scoring 20 PPG or fewer facing a team scoring more than 20 PPG are just 7-15 ATS when game is played overseas. That is the Titans this week vs. Ravens.

John Harbaugh

• Harbaugh is 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and five games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
• Harbaugh is 149-108-9 1H ATS with a $100 bettor up $3,361, most of any coach in NFL since 2005.

Lamar Jackson

• Over the past three seasons, Jackson is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog but 7-16 ATS as a favorite, including 4-16 when favored by more than three points.
• Jackson is 18-6 ATS as a favorite of three points or less or an underdog. In all other spots, he's 18-28 ATS career.
• He’s 2-13 ATS as a favorite of more than three points since 2021, worst in the NFL.
• Jackson covers the 1H spread on the road/neutral. He’s 24-10-1 1H ATS and 17-17-1 1H ATS at home. Between 2021-23, he’s 13-15-1 1H ATS. From 2018-20, he was 28-12-1 1H ATS.
• Sunday will be the Ravens' third straight game away from home. Teams playing on the third game or later of a road trip are 42-64 SU (39.6%) in the last 20 years.

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Titans

Mike Vrabel

• Vrabel as an underdog: 24-23 SU, 28-18-1 ATS, including 25-12-1 ATS when the spread is +3 or higher.
• Minimum 20 games as an underdog, only Vrabel, Matt LaFleur and Mike Tomlin are above .500 SU as an underdog in the last 20 years.
  • Vrabel 24-23, Tomlin 46-45, LaFleur 13-10.
• In six seasons with Titans, Vrabel has never finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog (3-1 ATS this season).
• Vrabel is 36-25 SU in Sept., Oct. and Nov. in his career (16-15 SU in Dec. on).
• Vrabel is 12-8-1 ATS as an underdog off of a SU loss. He’s covered three straight games in this spot.

Ryan Tannehill

• Tannehill is 75-74-4 ATS in his career – 34-29-2 ATS with TEN, 41-45-2 ATS with MIA
• Overall, Tannehill excels earlier in the season:
  • 56-45-2 ATS Sept-Nov | 19-29-2 ATS in Dec or later
• Tannehill is 31-21 against the 1H spread in the last four yrs, third-best in the NFL behind Goff and Herbert.
• In that same span, he’s 22-29-1 against the 2H spread – ranked 97th of 102 QBs.
• With the Titans, he’s 38-26-1 1H ATS. He was 41-46-1 vs. the 1H ATS with the Dolphins.
• He’s second-best in the NFL 1H ATS since joining Titans (behind just Lamar Jackson).
• Tannehill is 4-12-1 against the 2H spread since the beginning of last season.

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Commanders at Falcons | Sunday, Oct. 15

1:00pm ET | CBS

ATL -2 | 42.5

Commanders

Sam Howell

• Howell has been sacked 29 times so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL.
• Most sacks through five games all-time: 31 — David Carr (2002), 30 — David Carr (2005), 29 — Sam Howell (2023)
• NFL record for sacks taken in a season is 76, set by David Carr for the Texans in 2002, their first year in the NFL. Howell is on pace to take 99 this year.

Ron Rivera

• The dog is strong in Rivera. He's 58-43-2 ATS as an underdog and 47-51-2 ATS as a favorite with Washington and Carolina.
• Rivera has been an NFL head coach for 12 seasons. His teams have finished .500 or worse in nine of 12.
• Rivera off extended rest: 12-6-1 ATS as dog | 8-14 ATS as favorite
• In the last four seasons, Rivera-coached games are 33-21-2 (61%) to the under.

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Falcons

Historically, the Falcons haven’t performed well ATS on homestands. They are 17-30-2 ATS on the second leg or later of a homestand in the last 20 yeast, second-least profitable team in the NFL in that spot.

Arthur Smith

• The Falcons are 4-11 SU, 4-10-1 ATS after a SU win under Smith.
• His 4-10-1 ATS mark is third-worst of any head coach in the last three seasons.
• Smith is 10-9 SU, 6-13 ATS at home as a head coach (7-13 SU, 10-9-1 ATS road/neutral). He's the worst Falcons HC ATS at home in the last 20 years.
• Since being hired in 2021, he's the least profitable coach ATS at home
• Smith ATS by month:
  • Sept-Oct: 10-9 ATS
  • Nov. on: 6-12-1 ATS
• Smith is 6-4 ATS in the first four games of the season – his teams are 10-16-1 ATS in game five forward.

Desmond Ridder

• The Falcons have struggled in the first half under Desmond Ridder, going 0-9 against the first half spread in his career. They are failing to cover the 1H spread by 6.3 PPG.
• 1H pts under Ridder: 3, 9, 7, 10, 14, 3, 3, 0, 7
• Dating back to college, Ridder has lost 11 straight 1H ATS.
• Falcons receiving leaders this year
  • Jonnu Smith: 246
  • Kyle Pitts: 208
  • Drake London: 204
  • Bijan Robinson: 146
• Ridder has still never lost a home game as a starting QB in college or the NFL.
  • NFL: 5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS
  • CFB: 26-0 SU, 17-9 ATS
  • Total: 31-0 SU, 19-12 ATS
• On the road (+ neutral), though, has been a different story so far in the NFL.
  • NFL: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS
  • CFB: 15-4 SU, 9-10 ATS (3-2 SU/ATS neutral)
  • Total: 15-8 SU, 10-13 ATS
• Ridder Home/Road NFL Career
  • *Home Road/Neutral
    • W-L 5-0 0-4
    • ATS 2-3 1-3
    • PPG 24 10
    • TD-INT 5-1 1-2
    • Y/A 7.5 5.5
      • * Scored 20 points or more in all five home starts

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Vikings at Bears | Sunday, Oct. 15

1:00pm ET | FOX

MIN -3 | 43.5

Vikings

Some relief?

• Teams are 24-13 SU the week after facing the Chiefs over the last three seasons.

Lots has been made of the Broncos' defense. Well Minnesota’s has been almost as bad.

• Opponent completion percentage: 76.4% = fourth-highest through five games in Super Bowl era.
• They have 1 INT – T-fewest in the NFL
• 29 pressures on opposing QBs, fourth-fewest in the NFL

The Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last year during the regular season. Minnesota has now played six straight one-score games dating back to last season and are 1-4 SU this year.

Worst point differential among 13+ win teams since the merger (incl. postseason)

• 2022 Vikings -10 2023: 8.5 win total (1-4 SU, ATS)
• 1979 Oilers +26 1980: 11-6 SU (WC), 6-9-2 ATS
• 1990 Raiders +31 1991: 9-8 SU (WC), 8-9 ATS (U10 win total)
• 1993 Chiefs +31 1994: 9-8 SU (WC), 9-8 ATS (U9.5 win total)

Kirk Cousins

• Cousins is 70-74-2 ATS in his career – 30-28 ATS w/ WAS, 40-46-2 ATS w/ MIN
• Since 2020 – home: 10-19 ATS | road: 13-11-1 ATS
• Cousins’ 10-19 ATS home mark since 2020 is the worst in the NFL.
• Cousins and the Vikings are 2-9 ATS in the last 11 games. They covered Week 18 vs. the Bears and last week vs. the Panthers.
• When two bad defenses play. Go under. When both teams allow 24 PPG or more, the under is 54-32 (63%) in the last three seasons.
• Over the last 20 years, the over is 83-62-1 (58%) in Cousins' starts, making him the most profitable QB to the over in that span. He’s 34-20-1 to the over since 2020, also the most profitable QB to the over in that span. This season, Vikings are actually 4-1 to the under.
• In his NFL career, Cousins is 38-25 ATS after a SU loss, the fifth-most profitable QB in that spot over the last 20 years.
• When he’s off a SU win, he’s 28-42-2 ATS, which is 233rd of 233 QBs over the last 20 years – worst in the NFL.
• The Vikings are a bad team themselves, but Cousins has historically struggled with bad teams. He's 11-20-1 ATS vs. teams with a win pct of 33% or less.
• Cousins’ 11-20-1 ATS mark is the second-worst of 225 QBs over the last 20 years. The worst is Derek Carr.
• How Cousins performs based on time of day:
  • 1p ET or earlier: 49-39-2 ATS
  • 4p ET or later: 21-35 ATS

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Bears

The Bears won their first game in 347 days last week against the Commanders. Chicago now returns home and hopes to break another losing streak.

Chicago has lost nine consecutive home games, with its last win at Soldier Field coming back on Sept. 25, 2022 against the Texans – the end of a three-game SU win streak at home for Chicago. That is the longest home losing streak in Bears history.

The longest home losing streak is 14 done by the 2008-10 Rams and 1988-89 Cowboys.

For perspective: 12 straight home losses has been done twice since 1990: 2008-10 Rams and 1995-97 Jets.

Over the last 20 years, the Bears are 65-81-4 ATS (44.5%) after a SU win. Under Matt Eberflus, the Bears are 0-3 SU/ATS after a win, failing to cover the spread by 7.3 PPG. Justin Fields is 1-5 SU/ATS in that spot with the Bears.

Since the start of last season, Bears are 2-2 SU in night games. They are 2-16 SU when not playing at night.

The Bears are the lone 5-0 team to the over this year. They are 15-7 to the over since the start of last season, best mark in the NFL.

Justin Fields

• Fields is 6-24 SU, 9-20-1 ATS in his career.
• Min. 20 starts, Fields has the lowest ATS win percentage in the last 20 years (31%).
  • 122. Fields, 121. McCoy 12-23-1 ATS, 120. Bruce Gradkowski 7-13-1 ATS
• Fields is 11-18-1 1H ATS in his career.
• Since he was drafted in 2021, only Tom Brady and Desmond Ridder have been worse 1H ATS.
• Fields in night games: 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS | all other times: 4-19 SU, 6-16-1 ATS
• When Bears' opponents score more than 20 points vs. a Fields team, they are 20-0 SU. All six of Fields' wins have come with opponents scoring 20 points or less.

Chicago is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall and it's 2-17 SU in its last 19 games overall.

The Bears have now allowed 20 points or more in 15 consecutive games – longest active streak in the NFL. Longest Bears streak: 19 (2012-14). Longest streak since JAC (25) and HOU (15) in 2021.

The Bears have allowed 25 points or more in eight straight home games, the third-longest streak all-time.

• 2019-20 SEA, 11
• 2020-21 DET, 9
• 2022-23 CHI, 8 (5 others tied at 8)

The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups in the past few seasons, going a pathetic 5-19-1 ATS vs. the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,414 – that is the least profitable team vs. their own division in the NFL in that span.

• CHI is 18-28-1 ATS vs. other divisions since 2019

CHI is 23-47-2 ATS since 2019, worst of any team.

Who is the most profitable teams ATS to bet against the last few seasons?

• Since start of last season: 15-6-1 ATS (best)
• Last 3 years: 26-12-1 ATS (best)
• Last 4 years: 25-20-1 ATS (best)
• Last 5 years: 47-23-2 ATS (best)

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Seahawks at Bengals | Sunday, Oct. 15

1:00pm ET | CBS

CIN -3 | 45

Seahawks

Geno Smith

• Smith is 20-14-2 ATS as a dog, but only 9-11 ATS as a favorite
• Geno has been on a bit of a streaky ATS run. He's covered last three games, but was 1-9 ATS in his previous 10 games to the three-game win streak.
• The Seahawks are off a bye week facing the Bengals on the road. This will be Smith’s fourth game off a bye in his career — his teams are 0-3 SU/ATS, two with the Seahawks and one with the Jets.
• Winless QBs SU off a bye in the last 20 years:
  • 0-4: Trubisky
  • 0-3: Fields, Geno, Leftwich

Pete Carroll

• This will be Carroll’s 18th game off a bye (12+ days rest). He’s 10-7 SU, 8-8-1 ATS. He went 9-5 SU with Russell Wilson and 1-2 SU with all other QBs.

Overall, there has been advantage to playing on the road off a bye vs. at home ATS in the last 20 years:

• Home: 48% ATS
• Road: 54% ATS

The Seahawks travel to Cincinnati off a bye week, and that’s historically an advantage for Seattle. PST teams have had success playing in EST recently, going 46-29-3 ATS since 2019 (SF & CLE).

Seattle played the Giants in New York, had a bye and now are back in EST facing the Bengals. PST teams who play consecutive road games in EST are 14-5-2 ATS in the last 20 years. They are 5-2 SU since 2019.

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Bengals

The Bengals in the last 20 regular season games heading into 2023-24 season: 16-3-1 ATS. Bengals this season: 1-3-1 ATS

The Bengals are averaging 1.23 points per drive this season, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL. Last year, they were averaging 2.36 points per drive, fifth-best in the NFL.

The Bengals finally got their first cover of the season vs. Cardinals.

Joe Burrow

• Since he was drafted, Burrow is the second-most profitable QB ATS in the NFL behind Jared Goff.
• Burrow is 2-6-1 ATS in his last nine starts.
• Burrow is 2-of-13 passing on attempts 20+ yards downfield this season. 34 QBs have had at least 50 pass attempts this year, Burrow’s 15.4% completion percentage 20+ yards downfield is the lowest in the NFL.
• Burrow has the same number of 20+ yard completions as Daniel Jones in four more attempts.
• Burrow is 9-9 ATS vs. the AFC North and 24-11-1 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.
• Burrow is 17-4 SU and 17-3-1 ATS in his last 21 games vs. non-divisional opponents.
• In Burrow’s career, he's 36-17-1 (68%) against the second half spread. Best 2H ATS mark in the NFL since he was drafted.
• Burrow has faced a team off an ATS cover in a previous game 22 times in his career. He's 18-4 SU and 17-4-1 ATS in that opponent's next game.

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49ers at Browns | Sunday, Oct. 15

1:00pm ET | FOX

SF -9.5 | 36

49ers

The 49ers have won 15 consecutive regular season games, which ties the franchise's record set between 1989-90.

Brock Purdy

• Purdy in October or later at Iowa State and with 49ers:
  • 25-12 SU at Iowa State
  • 9-1 SU with the 49ers (34-13 SU)
• Most profitable 49ers QB ATS last 20 years:
  • Garoppolo 35-25-1 ATS
  • Shaun Hill 12-4 ATS
  • Purdy 10-3 ATS
• Purdy is 8-0 ATS at home and just 2-3 ATS on the road.
• The 49ers have scored 30+ points in eight straight regular season games, the longest such streak for an NFC team since the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams in 1999-2000 (14).
• Longest Reg Season Streaks of 30+ Pts
  • 14 STL 99-00
  • 13 NE 10-11
  • 11 DEN 12-13
  • 9 NE 06-07
  • 8 SF 22-23
• Purdy is 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS career – 12-0 SU in games he finished.
• Longest win streaks to start career – starting QBs since 1966:
  • Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 15 (2005)
  • Purdy, SF 10 (2023)
  • Mike Tomczak, CHI 10 (1987)
  • Mike Livingston, KC 10 (1982)

Christian McCaffrey

• In games McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 17-1 SU, 14-4 ATS.
• McCaffrey has a TD in 14 consecutive games, a 49ers record. The NFL record is 15 held by John Riggins and O.J. Simpson.
• McCaffrey odds to score TD this season: -105, -160, -240, -250, -195

PST teams have had success playing in EST recently, going 46-29-3 ATS since 2019 (SF & CLE). Teams traveling from EST to PST have had 1H success, going 100-62-3 1H ATS since 2017. In Week 6, that’s the 49ers and Eagles.

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Browns

The Browns are now a few games removed from the Nick Chubb injury and they are 1-1 SU/ATS, rushing for under 100 yards in both games after rushing for 206 and 198 in back-to-back games.

Browns haven't closed as a double-digit home underdog since September 2017 against the Steelers.

Browns' Defense

• The Browns' defense has been unreal entering Week 6. Some notes:
  • Opponents have had six red zone attempts vs. the Browns defense, fewest in the NFL.
  • Opponents are converting 3rd downs at 22.6%, lowest percentage in the NFL.
  • 17.6% of drives ending in an offensive score, lowest in NFL. Opponent average drive time of 1:58, lowest in NFL by 25 seconds.

Deshaun Watson

• Watson has struggled vs. good teams lately. His teams are 1-10 SU in his last 11 starts vs. teams above .500 SU on the season. He's 1-1 SU with the Browns in this spot.
• Watson is 2-1 ATS this season. Watson hasn’t finished above .500 ATS since his rookie year (2017).
• Watson’s 9.5 intended air yards per attempt is the second-highest in the NFL behind Jordan Love.
• The Browns are off a bye week coming to face the 49ers. Here's how Watson has performed based on rest:
  • Short rest: 11-1 SU, 7-3-2 ATS
  • Normal rest: 16-19 SU, 16-19 ATS
  • Extended rest: 6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS

Kevin Stefanski

• Stefanski with Browns
  • Favorite: 20-10 SU, 11-19 ATS
  • Dog: 8-17 SU, 13-11-1 ATS

Watch out for early year interceptions. In September and October, teams are 128-165-10 ATS (43.7%) the week after throwing three or more interceptions in the last 20 years. That was the Browns before the bye and the Cowboys last week.

Teams who are .500 SU or better, who lost at home in their previous game and now play at home again are just 86-110-6 ATS (43.9%) in the last 20 years.

• The later in the season the worse. In Oct or later, 79-104-5 ATS (43.2%).
• When these teams play on extended rest, still 16-24 ATS

Teams who lose by 17 or more playing a team that won by 17 or more the previous week are 109-73-4 ATS (60%) the ensuing week over the last 20 years.

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Saints at Texans | Sunday, Oct. 15

1:00pm ET | FOX

NO -1.5 | 42.5

Saints

Dennis Allen

• In his career, Allen is 18-40 SU. His 31% win percentage is T-n inth worst among all head coaches in the Super Bowl era. Here's the worst list since 2000:
  • Hue Jackson
  • Steve Spagnuolo
  • Gus Bradley
  • Pat Shurmur
  • Dave McGinnis
  • Dennis Allen.
• Allen is 22-34-2 ATS in his career as a coach.
• Allen’s 22-34-2 ATS mark is fourth-worst for any coach in the last 20 years:
  • 147. Jon Gruden
  • 146. Mike Shanahan
  • 145. Gus Bradley
  • 144. Dennis Allen
• Allen-coached teams are just 3-12-2 ATS coming off a SU win in their last game. Since his first year as coach in 2012, he’s third-worst coming off SU win.
  • 99 Mike Mularkey
  • 98 Sean McVay
  • 97 Dennis Allen

The Saints are the only team in the NFL where all five of their games this season have gone under the total. Dating back to last season, the under has cashed in 11 straight Saints games, including going 14-1 to the under in their last 15 games overall.

The Saints have held opponents under 21 points in 12 of their last 13 games.

Derek Carr

• Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime now for the fifth time in his career this year, and is still struggling to cover the spread. He's 26-34-2 ATS in those previous four seasons and 1-3-1 ATS in 2023 with the Saints.
  • '15: 8-8 ATS
  • '17: 5-8-2 ATS
  • '18: 6-10 ATS
  • '22: 7-8 ATS
  • '23: 1-3-1 ATS
• Looks like the Saints will be favorites vs. Texans, which isn’t a good thing for Carr.
  • Favorite: 17-32-2 ATS
  • Underdog: 52-44-1 ATS
• In games where Carr is a favorite or a small underdog, his teams have struggled.
  • As favorite or underdog of 3 or less: 35-47-3 ATS
  • Dog of more than 3 pts: 34-29 ATS
• Carr is 20-31-2 ATS on the road since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (123 of 123 QBs). He’s 22-22-1 ATS at home in that span.
• Carr was 17-29-2 ATS as a favorite with the Raiders, with a $100 bettor down $1,286. Now with the Saints, he's 0-1-1 ATS as a favorite.
• Carr is the third-least profitable (211 of 213) QB as a favorite in the past 20 years. He’s ahead of just Carson Palmer and Jay Cutler.
• Carr hasn’t had a year above .500 ATS as a favorite since 2016

Road Warriors

• Here is the Saints' ML record over the past few seasons, home vs. road
  • Last 3: Home: 7-10 SU | Road: 11-9 SU
  • Last 5: Home: 20-16 SU | Road: 24-12 SU
• Saints are 31-13 SU, 28-15-1 ATS on the road since 2018, the second-most profitable team ATS on the road in that span (Bengals are first; they are the most profitable team on ML).
• In this span, the Saints are 13-4 SU, 12-5 ATS on the second game or later of a road trip.

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Texans

• Teams who failed to make playoffs the previous year and are covering by 5 PPG or more, are almost 100 games under .500 ATS in the last 20 years. They are 6-10-1 ATS this season and they have gone under .500 ATS in NINETEEN consecutive seasons. Week 6 matches are Lions and Texans.

C.J. Stroud

• NFL QBs without an INT this season
  • Texans C.J. Stroud — 186 Pass Attempts
  • 49ers Brock Purdy — 136 Pass Attempts
  • Colts Gardner Minshew — 83 Pass Attempts
• QBs with 0 INT, 1,000+ pass yards in first five career starts:
  • CJ Stroud
  • Dak Prescott
  • Patrick Mahomes.
• Stroud's 186 pass attempts without an INT is a record to start a career.
• It's pretty amazing Stroud hasn’t thrown an INT with the fourth-most intended air yards on his passes of any QB this year.
• After starting his career 0-2 ATS, Stroud has covered the spread in his last three starts.
• He’s excelled in the first half, going 4-1 1H ATS this season.

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Colts at Jaguars | Sunday, Oct. 15

1:00pm ET | CBS

JAC -4 | 44

Colts

Jonathan Taylor

• The Colts got back Taylor last week. He only got a few carries, but already the Colts' rushing attack is getting better (“was” entering last week):
  • Rush Success Rate: 21st (was 23rd)
  • Rush EPA: 25th (was 31st)
  • Yds/rush: T-11th (was T-19th)
• Colts without Taylor: 4-7 SU | Colts when Taylor starts: 22-19-1 SU

Colts QBs

• Anthony Richardson has four rushing TD this season, tied with Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson for the most rush TDs for QB this season.
• Among QBs with 75+ pass attempts this year, Richardson’s eight pass attempts of 20+ yards downfield is tied with Gardner Minshew for the second-fewest behind Bryce Young (7).
• Minshew is 2-10 SU in his last 12 starts – he broke a streak of eight consecutive losses SU as a dog against the Ravens earlier this season. He’s 2-9 ATS in his last 11 starts (4-9 ATS since 2020).
• Colts QBs have struggled in the back up role. They are 5-14 SU (9-8 ATS) since 2017.
• Minshew has faced seven teams above .500 SU in his career — his teams are 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS.
• One thing Minshew has helped with is lower bad throws:
  • AR: 18.3% bad throw %
  • GM: 12.5% bad throw %

A Fun Trip to Florida

• Teams who go from a home game to a road game in Florida (TB, JAC, MIA) are just 157-141-10 ATS over the last 20 years. But earlier in the season is another story – Week 6 matches: IND, DET
  • Sept-Oct: 74-45-3 ATS
  • Nov on: 83-96-7 ATS

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Jaguars

Only 11 times in NFL history has a team returned home from Europe without a bye week. Every one of those teams was tied or trailing in the fourth quarter the following week. Opponent team totals are 7-4 to the over. — via Brandon Anderson.

Jaguars are 14-2-1 ATS since 2015 vs. Colts.

Trevor Lawrence

• Lawrence is 18-23 ATS in his career:
  • 13-11 ATS with Doug Pederson
  • 5-12 ATS with Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer
• Lawrence is 18-23 against 1H spread in his career, but this season has been a turn around for Lawrence. He's 4-1 1H ATS this season.
• Lawrence is 25-16 to the under in the last three seasons, the second-most profitable QB to the under in the NFL (of 90 QBs) behind just Daniel Jones.
• Lawrence is 15-8-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season – the fourth-most profitable 2H ATS QB in the NFL.
• Looking for a Lawrence anytime TD? He’s scored in just six of 41 career games.
• Lawrence on the moneyline as an underdog
  • Home: 7-6 SU
  • Road/Neutral: 5-13 SU
• Lawrence is just 4-6 SU as a favorite in his NFL career. Since he was drafted in 2021, he’s the fifth-least profitable QB as a favorite on the ML.
• The Jaguars are 8-16 SU off a loss under Lawrence. They are 7-7 SU off of a win. Lawrence is 9-15 ATS career off a loss and 8-6 ATS off a SU win.
• When it comes to covering the number, Lawrence likes facing good teams. The Jaguars have covered seven straight games vs. teams above .500 SU. Over the last two seasons, Lawrence is 7-3 ATS in this spot.
• Lawrence by opponent in the AFC South. He’s only under .500 SU vs. the Texans.
  • HOU: 1-4 SU/ATS
  • TEN: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS
  • IND: 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS

Doug Pederson

• Pederson ATS in his career: 56-54 ATS
  • Sept-Nov: 32-39 ATS
  • Dec on: 24-15 ATS
• Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite.
  • Underdog: 31-23 ATS
  • Favorite: 25-31 ATS

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Panthers at Dolphins | Sunday, Oct. 15

1:00pm ET | CBS

MIA -14.5 | 47.5

Panthers

Winless Panthers

• The Panthers are the lone winless teams SU this season. Overall, teams without a SU win are 414-380-23 ATS (52.1%) in the last 20 years.
• Teams who are winless in their sixth game or later have excelled on the road and struggled at home.
  • Home: 29-39 ATS
  • Road: 40-27 ATS
• The Panthers are 0-5 SU for the first time since 2010 and for just the fourth time in franchise history (2023, 2010, 1998, 1995).

Frank Reich

• What a first half ATS rollercoaster Reich teams have gone through.
  • 2023 Panthers: 3-2 1H ATS
  • 2022 Colts: 0-9 1H ATS
  • 2018-21 Colts: 42-25-1 1H ATS (Reich 2nd-best in NFL)
• Panthers and former Colts coach Reich usually plays to his role
  • As favorite: 30-13-1 SU
  • As underdog: 11-27 SU

Bryce Young

• Young is 0-4 SU so far this season. Since 2000, No. 1 overall QB picks are 62-123-2 SU in their first season.
• Bryce Young’s longest completion is 30 yards this season. Of 30 QBs with 100+ pass attempts, that’s the lowest of any QB.
• Under 6’0”, Starting QB Rookie Year:
  • 2023 Bryce Young 0-4 SU
  • 2020 PJ Walker 1-0 SU
  • 2019 Kyler Murray 5-11 SU
  • 2012 Russell Wilson 11-5 SU
  • 1986 Doug Flutie 1-0 SU
  • 1976 Pat Haden 5-2 SU
• Since 2002, there have been 31 instances of a team drafting a quarterback in the top 10 who then went on to start at least eight games as a rookie, and those teams combined to go 11-18-2 (37.9%) toward their win-total over. Over the past 10 years, they’ve been even worse, going just 4-11-2 (26.7%). Young has started three games so far this year.
• Highest Team O/U – Draft QB 1st Overall in WC Era (since 1990)
  • 1992 Giants/Dave Brown – 9 (Supplemental Draft) (6-10 SU)
  • 2023 Panthers/Bryce Young – 7.5 (0-5 SU)
  • 2016 Rams/Jared Goff – 7.5 (4-12 SU)

When two bad defenses play. Go under. When both teams allow 24 PPG or more, the under is 54-32 (63%) in the last three seasons. Week 6 matches: CHI/MIN, MIA/CAR

Teams love a good stop in Florida on a road trip. Teams to face the Bucs, Jaguars and Dolphins in the second game or later of a road trip (road previous game) are 91-49-5 ATS (65%) in the last 20 years. Even teams on 3+ game losing streaks in this spot are 12-5 ATS.

The Panthers and Giants constitute the hold your nose play. In Week 5 on, teams who are covering by five PPG or more on the year facing a team with a .250 win percentage or less are 65-109-5 ATS.

The Panthers went over their win total last year (6.5; 7 wins). They haven’t eclipsed their win total in consecutive years since 2002-03.

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Dolphins

The Dolphins are double-digit favorites for the second consecutive week after closing as 13-point favorites last week against the Giants. They are now listed as high as -14 against the Panthers.

The last time Miami closed as double-digit favorites in consecutive games was back in Week 5 and 6 of the 1995 season against the Colts and Bengals.

Teams who are double-digit favorites in consecutive games are 52-62 ATS (45.6%) in the last 20 years in that second game. When they cover the previous game, they are 21-36 ATS (37%).

The Dolphins have closed above a 10-point favorite just five times in the last 20 years.

• -14.5: 2022 vs. HOU (W, 30-15)
• -13.5: 2003 vs. HOU (L, 21-20)
• -13: 2023 vs. NYG (W, 31-16)
• -10.5: 2020 vs. CIN (W, 19-7)
• -10.5: 2006 vs. TENN (W, 13-10)

Dolphins' Dynamic Offense

• The Dolphins are still averaging 36.2 PPG this season, best in the NFL, entering Week 6.
• In the sixth game or later, teams to average 35 PPG or more and be listed as a favorite are 31-39-2 ATS. When those teams are double-digit favorites, they are 14-20 ATS.
• Historically, high scoring teams don’t cover when facing struggling offensive teams. Teams that average 35 PPG or more facing a team averaging 20 PPG or less are 20-38-4 ATS in the last 20 years. In game six or later, those teams are 6-15-1 ATS.
• The Dolphins are still averaging an absurd 8.3 yards per play this year. That is second-best all-time through five games behind the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams in 2000 (8.51).
• Usually teams with early-year, high-powered offenses come back to reality. Teams who average 6+ YPP in game six or later are 15-28-1 ATS (35%) since 2020.

Tua Tagovailoa

• Tua prefers Miami when it comes to covering the number. He’s 14-5 ATS at home and 9-10-1 ATS away from home in his career.
• The Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015.
• Miami is 35-20-3 ATS since 2016 at home – best home team ATS in that span
• Tua by time zone
  • 20-8-1 ATS in EST
  • 3-6 ATS all other time zones
• Tua is 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS as a favorite of over four pts. In his career, he's avoided the big upset bug.

Tyreek Hill

• Most Receiving Yards First Five Games in Super Bowl Era:
  • 740 – Wes Welker, 2011
  • 651 – Tyreek Hill, 2023

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Lions at Buccaneers | Sunday, Oct. 15

4:25pm ET | FOX

DET -3 | 42.5

Lions

Jared Goff

• Goff is 30-20-2 1H ATS over the last four seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
• The Lions are 27-12 ATS since the start of the 2021 season, most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($1,262).
• Most profitable QB against the spread:
  • Since 2022: Jared Goff (16-6 ATS)
  • Since 2021: Jared Goff (25-11 ATS)
  • Since 2020: Jared Goff (33-19 ATS)
  • Since 2019: Jared Goff (43-24-1 ATS)
  • Since 2018: Jared Goff (52-33-2 ATS)
  • Since 2017: Jared Goff (61-40-2 ATS)
• The Lions are facing the Panthers at home this week. Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor:
  • Indoor: 28-14 ATS (18-6 ATS last 2 seasons)
  • Outdoor: 33-33-2 ATS
• Goff is 19-8 ATS at home since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL.
• Goff on the road since 2020: 14-11 ATS
• Dating back to last season, Goff has covered six straight games vs. above .500 SU opponents, going 11-3 ATS in this spot since 2021 – best mark in the NFL.
• In his career, Goff is 15-8-1 ATS vs. teams with a 75% win percentage or higher.
• Goff has faced a team with a 75%+ win percentage seven times over the last three seasons — he's 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS.

The Lions haven’t closed as a FG favorite or higher on the road since 2020 at Carolina. The last time they closed above a FG favorite on the road was back in 2019 against the Commanders. They were last a road favorite of over four points back in 2014 against the Bears.

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Buccaneers

Todd Bowles

• Bowles is one of the worst coaches in the NFL as an underdog
• 14-37 SU, 20-28-3 ATS as an underdog (23-15 SU as a favorite)
• His 20-28-3 ATS mark is 142nd of 147 coaches in the last 20 years and worst of all active head coaches.

Baker Mayfield

• Mayfield is 32-42-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,150 (117th of 121 QBs since he’s been in the league).
• Baker is 20-19 ATS as an underdog and 12-23-1 ATS as a favorite
• Short rest hasn’t been too bad to Baker. Mayfield is 6-3 SU/ATS in his career on short rest.
• This week they are off a bye, Baker off extended rest: 8-9 SU, 6-11 ATS. The 6-11 ATS mark for Baker is ranked 212th of 217 QBs last 20 years.
• Baker is 13-21-1 ATS at home in his career. He’s never finished a season above .500 ATS at home, and he's ranked 108th of 112 QBs since he entered the league.

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Patriots at Raiders | Sunday, Oct. 15

4:05pm ET | CBS

LV -3 | 41.5

Patriots

Down Go the Pats

• The Patriots are averaging 0.87 points per drive this season, lowest mark in the NFL. For comparison, the Dolphins and 49ers, one and two in the category are averaging over three points per drive.
• The Patriots are 3-9 SU, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
• The Patriots have struggled vs. the best and done well against some of the bad teams. Since 2016, they are 32-13 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, including 10-6 ATS since 2020. Since 2020, Patriots are 12-16-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
• Recently, NE has struggled vs. the best. Since 2019, they are 13-22-2 ATS vs. above .500 SU opponents, second-worst ATS mark in the NFL ahead of just the Bears.
• In that same span, they are 9-20-1 ATS vs. teams who made playoffs the previous season, third-worst mark in the NFL (SEA, CHI). When they face a team who didn’t make the playoffs, they are 24-18-1 ATS in that span.
• The Patriots have two takeaways through five games, fewest in the NFL. In the Super Bowl era, only three teams have had one or fewer takeaways through five games, and 2023 NE is on a list of just 19 teams with two or fewer through five games.

Mac Jones

• Mac is 12-8 SU vs. teams who failed to make the playoffs the previous season and 5-12 SU vs. teams who did.
• 0-14 SU when opponents scores more than 24 points. Mac is 17-6 SU when his defense allows 24 points or less.
• When Mac scores 21 pts or less, NE is 4-14 SU.
• Jones is 15-21-1 ATS career – least profitable QB in the last 20 years under Bill Belichick
• Mac is 5-0 ATS vs. Jets, Zack Wilson | 10-21-1 ATS vs. all other QBs
• Mac is 12-8-1 ATS as a favorite, 3-13 ATS as an underdog. Jones has lost 12 consecutive starts SU and ATS as an underdog.
• Over the last 20 years, Mac is ranked 269th of 271 QBs as an underdog ATS. He's the least profitable active QB as a dog ATS.
• Mac is 0-10 ATS as dog since start of last season – rest of NFL is 192-152-8 as a dog in that span.

Bill Belichick

• Since Brady left, Belichick and NE are 26-30 SU, 25-30-1 ATS since 2020.
• Belichick without Brady as head coach:
  • 44-48 SU with NE
  • 36-44 SU with CLE.
• Since 2021, Belichick is 3-15 SU as an underdog. Between 2003-15, he was 25-22 SU as an underdog. In that same span, Belichick is 16-6 SU as a favorite.
• Since 2020, Belichick is just 11-16 SU in Sept and Oct. Between 2003-19, he was 100-26 SU in those months.

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Raiders

Teams coming off a night game playing a team who lost by 20 points or more in their previous game are 64-103-5 ATS (38%) since 1990. That is the Raiders, but also 49ers this week.

Josh McDaniels

• McDaniels started his career 6-0 SU/ATS in Denver. Since that run, McDaniels coached teams are 13-31 SU and 17-27 ATS.
• McDaniels coached teams fade late
  • 12-14 SU in Sept-Oct
  • 7-17 SU in Nov or later

Josh Jacobs

• The Reigning rushing champ has struggled this season. Jacobs has 235 rushing yards on 82 attempts in 2023 (2.9 Y/A). He’s never finished a season with below 3.9 Y/A.
• In Week 2, he rushed for -2 yards on nine carries, becoming first defending rush champ to finish with negative rush yards in the merger.
• 31 players have had 50+ rush attempts this season — Jacobs’ 2.9 Y/A is second-lowest, with Rhamondre Stevenson having the lowest mark in the NFL.
• Jacobs has gone 10 straight games without a 100-yard rushing performance

Bright Lights of Vegas

• Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas
  • Raiders at home in Vegas: 12-15 SU, 14-13 ATS
  • On road/neutral: 14-15 SU, 12-17 ATS
• LV is most profitable road/neutral team on ML since moving to Vegas (+$707)

Jimmy Garoppolo

• Garoppolo is 16-8 straight up and 18-6 against the spread as an underdog in his NFL career.
• As a favorite, he's 30-12 SU, 21-20-1 ATS.
• Garoppolo is 7-9 ATS in September and 32-17-1 ATS in all other months

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Cardinals at Rams | Sunday, Oct. 15

4:25pm ET | CBS

LAR -7 | 48

Cardinals

Josh Dobbs' Cardinals-led offense is 13th in EPA/play this year. Ahead of TEN, GB, BAL, JAC, NO, CIN among others.

The Cardinals haven’t been a public side yet this season. Arizona and Carolina are the two teams this season without a game as the public side.

Historically, this would be the time to take Arizona. Teams to win four games or less the previous season and are on a 2+ game ATS losing streak are 31-21-2 ATS since 2020 and 45-28-3 ATS since 2018.

The Cardinals fit a good system for road dogs this week. Teams who didn’t make the playoffs the previous season and are road dogs are 273-218-8 ATS (55.6%) since 2019. Matches this week: ARI, DEN, NE, IND, CAR, WAS

Another good Cardinals spot: Home divisional teams are 364-415-19 ATS (46.7%) since 2015. Almost a -9% ROI. Matches this week: KC, JAC, CHI, LAR

Four teams have a pressure percentage on defense below 15% this season: DEN, MIN, LV and ARI.

Arizona is 28th in EPA/play on defense and 32nd, last in NFL in opponent success rate – the only team above 50% in opponent success rate

The Cardinals have struggled vs. NFC West recently. They are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games in the spot. They have won one road game SU in the last calendar year – against the Rams (1-7 SU).

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Rams

The Rams are under .500 SU and close to a TD favorite vs. Cardinals. Favorites of seven or more who are under .500 SU on the season are 83-14 SU since 2016, winning by 10.7 PPG (including 37-5 SU in the last three seasons).

Favorites of more than seven pts who are under .500 SU on the season are 23-0 SU in the last two seasons and 67-9 SU since 2016.

Sean McVay

• McVay is 10-2-1 ATS vs. the Cardinals, his most profitable opponent against the spread. He’s 20-6-1 ATS vs. ARI/SEA and 4-10 ATS vs. SF.
• Sean McVay’s teams tend to perform better early in the season vs. late.
  • Sept/Oct: 35-15 SU
  • Nov. on: 34-29 SU
• McVay is 24-16-1 ATS vs. the NFC West and 34-35-2 ATS vs. all the other divisions.

Rams' Wide Outs

• Cooper Kupp returned to the lineup last week and it didn’t impact Puka Nacua too much. Kupp had 12 targets vs. Eagles and Puka had 11 targets.
• Nacua is the only player in NFL history to record 500+ receiving yards through his first five career games — his 46 receptions is by far the most through five games, 12 more than second-most, Reggie Bush in 2006.

Matthew Stafford

• Stafford is 2-11-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season – worst mark in the NFL. Last five years, he's 19-38-2 2H ATS, the worst mark in the NFL.
• Stafford hasn’t finished above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 – he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, worst season since 2013.
• The Rams and Stafford are 3-1-1 ATS this season.
• Stafford can’t beat good teams. He’s 31-64 SU and 36-57-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. He's the least profitable QB SU and ATS in this spot in the last 20 years. He's 8-7 SU and 6-9 ATS with Rams in this spot.
• When Stafford faces a team .500 SU or worse — like the Cardinals — he's 56-37 SU and 46-43-4 ATS. Lately, he hasn’t been good. He’s lost five of his last six SU in this spot.
• Stafford is 15-18-2 ATS with the Rams – second-least profitable QB for the franchise in the last 20 years (Marc Bulger)
• After playing the Eagles, teams have struggled in recent years. They are 20-35 ATS since 2020, the second-least profitable previous opponent in the NFL ahead of just the Raiders.

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Eagles at Jets | Sunday, Oct. 15

4:25pm ET | FOX

PHI -6.5 | 42.5

Eagles

The Eagles have beaten the Jets in all 12 regular-season matchups, which is an NFL record.

• Most wins, no losses or ties:
  • 12: Eagles – Jets
  • 10: Packers – Brooklyn Dodgers/Tigers (via Quirky Research).

Undefeated

• The Eagles are 5-0 SU for the third time in the last 30 years.
  • 2023: 5-0 SU
  • 2022: Lost Super Bowl
  • 2004: Lost Super Bowl
• The Eagles are the first team to lose the Super Bowl and start the next season 5-0 since the 1991 Bills. The Eagles join these teams to start the season 5-0 the year after losing Super Bowl:
  • 1991 Bills
  • 1981 Eagles
  • 1976 Cowboys
  • 1975 Vikings
  • 1974 Vikings
  • 1972 Dolphins
• This is the Eagles first three-game ATS road win streak since 2018. The Eagles haven’t covered their first three road games in a season since 2001 – they covered their first six road games ATS.
• The Eagles have won a Philly record 11 straight road games SU.
• The Eagles and 49ers had the easiest schedules entering this season, via Sean Koerner. They are now the lone undefeated teams left in the NFL.

Jalen Hurts

• Eagles are 10-2 against the 1H ML in their last 12 games. Jalen Hurts is 22-14-3 vs. the 1H ML in his career. Since the start of last season, the Eagles are 17-4-1 1H ML – most 1H ML wins in NFL.
• Hurts has won each of his last five regular-season starts in which the Eagles trailed by 10+ points.
• Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
  • Home: 14-6-1 ATS (4th of 91 QBs since 2020)
  • Road/Neutral: 9-13 ATS (86th of 91 QBs since 2020)
• This season, though, Hurts is 3-0 SU/ATS on the road – his first three-game ATS winning streak on the road.
• Hurts entered 2023 3-10 ATS as a road/neutral favorite. He’s now 3-0 SU/ATS in 2023.
• Hurts is 13-3 SU as a road/neutral favorite (or pick’em) in his career – won 11 straight SU (10-0 SU in this spot since the start of last season).
• Hurts has been money as a favorite. His teams are 26-5 SU as a favorite with Hurts as the starter, including 26-3 SU when the Eagles are favored by three points or more (24-2 SU in last 26 starts).
• Hurts has won 11 consecutive starts SU in the regular season.
• Hurts has won 22 out of his last 23 regular season starts. The only other QBs over the last 73 years with a stretch of 22-1: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Jim McMahon and Joe Montana.
• QBs to go 22-1 or better in 23-start span — since 1950:
  • Jalen Hurts — 2022-2023
  • Peyton Manning — 2008-2009
  • Tom Brady — 2006-2009
  • Tom Brady — 2003-2004
  • Joe Montana — 1989-1993
  • Jim McMahon — 1985-1988
• As a favorite of four pts or more, Hurts is 20-1 SU in his career. His only loss? To Taylor Heinicke.

The Eagles are 5-0 SU and are now road favorites in New York. Undefeated teams in their sixth game or later are 72-82-6 ATS in the last 20 years. Those teams are 13-6-1 ATS as an underdog, but 59-76-5 ATS as a favorite.

Eagles' Defense

• The Eagles have 15 sacks through four games this season (T-8th).
• Philly finished with 70 sacks last season – third-most in the regular season all-time (72 ‘84 CHI, 71 ‘89 MIN).
• The issue isn’t pressure this year, their 58 total pressures are the most in the NFL and they are top-five in pressure percentage.

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Jets

Get Out of Thin Air

• In the last five years, teams after playing in Denver are 20-11-2 ATS in their next game – third-most profitable previous road opponent in the NFL. It’s 34-21-2 ATS since 2016, second-best in the NFL.

Zach Wilson

• Bad history again for Zach? Wilson became the first player since the NFL merger to record the worst passer rating two years in a row last year. In 2023, he currently has the second-worst passer rating in the NFL, ahead of just Daniel Jones.
• Worst 2023 Passer Rating:
  • 33. Daniel Jones
  • 32. Zach Wilson
  • 31. Mac Jones
• Wilson and the Jets have struggled to win against good offensive teams:
  • 20 PPG or higher: 4-12 SU19.9 PPG or less: 5-4 SU
• With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets start a “backup QB” for the rest of the season. The Jets have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB. They are 4-27 SU, 12-19 ATS over the last decade when starting a backup QB.
• 36 QBs have had 300+ plays since start of last season, Wilson has the lowest EPA/play of any QB.
• This will be the third undefeated opponent Wilson faces as a pro. The Jets are 0-2 SU/ATS and are being outscored 56-10.

Robert Saleh

• There have been six different Jets coaches in the last 20 years, none have been profitable ATS with New York. Saleh is 18-21 ATS with Jets.

Pretty tasty spot for the Jets. Home dogs vs. undefeated SU road teams are 61-38-1 ATS in the last decade and 88-53-2 ATS since 2010. This also works for the Browns this week.

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Giants at Bills | Sunday, Oct. 15

8:20pm ET | NBC

BUF -15 | 44

Giants

Tyrod Taylor

• This is the biggest underdog of Tyrod Taylor's career. He was +13.5 as a member of the Texans in Cleveland and lost 31-21.
• Taylor is 18-12-2 ATS as an underdog in his career — including 12-7-2 ATS as a road underdog.
• If the Giants trail at the half, they may be worth a bet. When Tyrod Taylor trails at the half, his teams are 16-8 against the second half spread. Since Taylor entered the league in 2015, he's the 6th-most profitable QB against second half spread when trailing at the half.

Night Owls

• The Giants would be third team to have four night games in their first six games of the year since 2001 — 2022 DEN, 2015 NYG.
• Double-digit dogs at night are 66-50-3 ATS in the last 20 years. 24-13-1 ATS early on (Sept/Oct).
• Double digit dogs in back-to-back games, since Giants were +13 in Miami last week, are 68-42-3 ATS in the last 20 years on the second-leg of games.
• When the team doesn’t cover in the first leg, it's 46-23-1 ATS.
• Since 2019, the Giants and Jets have played a total of 25 night games. They are a combined 2-23 SU in those games.
• The Giants are the only team to play three night games so far this season; they're 0-3 SU/ATS and have been outscored 94-15 (-79) in those three games.
• That's the worst point differential by any team in a span of three prime-time games within a season since the 1970 merger.

Brian Daboll

• This is a very different year for the Giants under Daboll. They went 7-0 ATS after a SU loss last season. This year, they are 0-3 ATS.
• Daboll led the Giants to an impressive 11-3 ATS record as an underdog in Year 1, going 7-6 straight-up (SU) in those spots.
• 2023 hasn’t been as kind. Giants are 0-4 SU/ATS as an underdog this season.

The Giants allowed a ton of sacks in Week 5. History says to continue to fade them. Teams after allowing seven sacks or more are 88-115-5 ATS (43%) in the last 20 years, including 5-14 ATS in the last two seasons.

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Bills

Back From Across the Pond

• Only 11 times in NFL history has a team returned home from Europe without a bye week. Every one of those teams was tied or trailing in the fourth quarter the following week. Opponent team totals are 7-4 to the over.
• Over the last three seasons, only one team has closed as a 14-point favorite off of a loss: Bills in 2021 vs. Dolphins as 15-point favorites. They won 26-11.

Josh Allen

• The Bills' defense allowed 25 to the Jaguars this week. With injuries to Matt Milano and Tre'Davious White, can they keep up history? Josh Allen and the Bills are 17-5 SU, 14-6-2 ATS in a game after allowing 24 points or more.
• Allen has 59 wins in his career — 45 of those 59 wins have been by seven pts or more.
• Allen had no turnovers in the Bills' win over the Dolphins, but threw an INT vs. the Jaguars in London. Allen still hasn't had consecutive starts without a giveaway since the 2021-22 playoffs, where he didn’t turn it over in both playoff games.
• In the regular season: Allen has still has not had consecutive starts without a giveaway since Weeks 15-16, 2020.
• Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career. He's 31-17-3 ATS on seven days rest (eighth-most profitable QB ATS in the last 20 years in this spot)
• He’s 7-8-1 ATS on short rest and 6-11-1 ATS on extended rest.
• The biggest advantage in Buffalo might just be the Bills second half. Under Allen, the Bills are 53-33-3 against the second half spread. Since 2005, he’s the third-most profitable QB on the second half spread.
• As a home favorite, Allen and the Bills are 29-7 SU. Since 2018, he's fifth in the NFL in ML profitability.
• As a home favorite of seven or more, Allen is 17-1 SU, including 11-0 SU as a double-digit home favorite. He lost to the Colts in 2021.
• Allen is 17-5 SU, 14-7-1 ATS vs. the NFC in his career.
• Bills are now off of a loss against the Jaguars in London. Allen off a SU loss: 18-7 SU, 13-10-2 ATS.
• Allen hasn’t bounced back well off of division losses. He’s 3-7 ATS in his next game after an AFC East loss and 10-3-2 ATS when facing non-AFC East after a loss.
• Allen has been a favorite of seven or more off a loss four times, and the Bills are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS.
• This will be Allen’s first career home game at night off of a SU loss. Allen is 13-6 SU, 11-8 ATS in night games, including 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS at home.
• Allen has played 10 games as a 13-point favorite or higher. He's 9-1 SU, 5-3-2 ATS — only loss to Jaguars as 16-point favorite.

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Cowboys at Chargers | Monday, Oct. 16

8:15pm ET | ESPN

DAL -1.5 | 51

Cowboys

Mauling Aftermath

• The Cowboys are coming off a drubbing on SNF from the 49ers and now play at night again. Teams playing at night for a second straight game, after losing the first game, are just 44-71 SU (38.3%).
• Watch out for early year interceptions. In September and October, teams are 128-165-10 ATS (43.7%) the week after throwing three or more interceptions in the last 20 years. That was the Browns before the bye and the Cowboys last week.
• The Cowboys played the 49ers last week. Teams after playing the 49ers are 2-19 SU, 4-15-2 ATS since the start of last season, including 17-39 SU, 21-33-2 ATS since 2020.

Dak Prescott

• Prescott has a 7.1 average depth per target this season, 30th of 34 qualified QBs. Last year, it was 8.2, 10th in the NFL.
• Prescott is 4-8-1 ATS in MST or PST time zones, but he’s 54-40-1 ATS in EST and CST.
• Dak as an underdog: 12-17 SU, 15-14 ATS
• When he gets 3.5 pts or more he’s 9-7 ATS
• When Dak is a favorite at night, he's 16-8-1 ATS in his career. In the last 20 years, that's the third-best mark in the NFL: Peyton, Rodgers, Dak
• Dak has lost his last six starts at night as an underdog dating back to 2019.
• At night, Dak is 20-5 SU as a favorite and 3-8 SU as an underdog.
• Overall, Dak is 23-13 SU, 21-14-1 ATS in night games. He’s sixth-most profitable ATS in the last 20 years at night.
• Highest SU win percentage in night games last 20 years (min. 20 starts)
  • Peyton Manning
  • Patrick Mahomes
  • Tom Brady
  • Carson Wentz
  • Russ Wilson
  • Drew Brees
  • Dak Prescott
• Dak does well vs. bad teams. He's 32-10 SU, 27-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 21-22 SU, 17-26 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. The 27-13-2 ATS mark is second-best in the last 20 years behind just Brady.
• Dak is 25-10 ATS vs. the NFC East (+$1,378) and 33-38-2 ATS vs. all the other divisions (-$682)

Mike McCarthy

• McCarthy has excelled ATS early in the season. He’s 68-48-3 ATS in Sept. and Oct., the second-best coach ATS in that timeframe in the last 20 years behind just Bill Belichick.
• Mike McCarthy is very much like Dak, as he plays to his role in night games. He’s 30-16-1 ATS as a favorite, 13-21-2 ATS as a dog at night.
• Since 2021, Cowboys are 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS in night games, the most profitable team ATS at night in that span.

Jake Ferguson

• Cowboys TE Ferguson has 10 targets in the red zone this year, second in the NFL behind just Davante Adams.

The Cowboys went 5-0 ATS after a loss last season and are 10-1 ATS off a loss over the previous three seasons, since 2021. In that span, they are the most profitable team off a SU loss in the NFL.

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Chargers

The Chargers have played 22 games since the start of last season, and 17 of them have finished within seven points.

Justin Herbert

• Herbert has been one of the best QBs in the league this year. He has one interception on 145 pass attempts. Only C.J. Stroud has more pass attempts this year with just one or fewer INT.
• He’s sixth in EPA/play, fourth in completion percentage, third in passer rating and his 83% on target throw percentage is highest in the NFL.
• Herbert’s W/L record has been a product of his defense in his career.
  • When his defense allows 27 points or more, LAC is 6-23 SU, 9-20 ATS.
  • When his defense allows fewer than 27 points, LAC is 21-4 SU, 20-4-1 ATS.
• Herbert is 15-11 ATS on the road and only 13-13-1 ATS at home in his career. The Chargers have finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons. The Chargers have finished above .500 ATS once in the last 10 years.
• Herbert by time zone:
  • EST/CST: 12-6 ATS
  • MST/PST: 16-18-1 ATS
• Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite:
  • Underdog: 12-6 ATS, 16-2 in 6-pt teasers
  • Favorite: 16-18-1 ATS, 25-8 in 6-pt teasers
• Herbert is 10-14-1 ATS in “toss up” games in his career – or games with a spread of three points or less. He’s 1-5-1 ATS in his last seven games in this spot, with his lone win over Kirk Cousins and the Vikings.
• In night games overall, Herbert is 6-7 SU, 8-5 ATS: 4-2 SU at home, 2-5 SU on road in night games
• Herbert is 32-22 1H ATS. He’s 15-7 1H ATS since start of last season – third-best mark in the NFL.
• Herbert is 11-2 1H ATS in night games – second-best mark since 2005 behind just Peyton Manning.
• Herbert is 15-34-5 against the second-half spread in his career. Since 2005, he’s 247th of 250 QBs in 2H ATS profitability
• He can’t hold a lead. He’s 7-24-2 2H ATS when leading at HT (-$1,755, worst in NFL since he was drafted)
• When he’s had the lead at half in a night game, he’s 1-9-1 2H ATS.
• In night games, Herbert is 2-10-1 2H ATS
• Herbert 2H ATS Career:
  • 2023: 0-3-1 ATS
  • 2022: 6-10-2 ATS
  • 2021: 5-12 ATS
  • 2020: 4-9-2 ATS

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NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️

Biggest NFL Week 6 Public Sides
Dolphins (-14.5) vs. CAR					89% of bets
49ers (-9.5) at CLE					80% of bets

Biggest NFL Week 6 Line Moves
Bills (-7 to -15) vs. NYG
Dolphins (-7 to -14.5) vs. CAR

NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️

Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Week 6 (Non-TNF)
49ers at Browns (+7)					110k bets
Vikings at Bears (+3)					100k bets

Biggest NFL Week 6 Public Totals
NE-LV (O/U: 41.5)					87% of bets to under
IND-JAC (O/U: 44)					81% of bets to under

System: When bad defenses get time to prep, the under has historically been the right side.

Matches: CHI/MIN & CAR/MIA

$$$: Bad defenses, go under; 24 PPG both defense

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 season

the visiting team's average points allowed is between 24 and 100

the home team's average points allowed is between 24 and 100

betting on the Under

the game is played during the Regular season

$1,760

WON

54-32-0

RECORD

63%

WIN%

View System

System: Let's add a lifestyle trend this week. Teams going road-to-road coming from a so-called "party city" — Atlanta, L.A., Vegas, Miami, New Orleans or New York have struggled to cover the number.

Matches: BUF, NYJ

$$$: Off Road in party city, Road again (LA, LV, MIA, ATL, NY, NO)

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 or 2017-18 or 2016-17 or 2015-16 or 2014-15 or 2013-14 season

the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season

the team is the Visitor team

the previous game the team was the Visitor team

the team has had between 0 and 7 days off

the team's previous opponent was the Atlanta Falcons or Las Vegas Raiders or Los Angeles Chargers or Los Angeles Rams or Miami Dolphins or New Orleans Saints or New York Giants or New York Jets

$-3,480

WON

59-91-6

RECORD

39%

WIN%

View System

System: Early in the year, betting teams who just lost as a favorite has been profitable with an 8% ROI in almost 600-game sample size.

Matches: DEN, WAS, BUF, NE

$$$: Bet teams after losing as a favorite, early season

the team's previous game spread was between -100 and -1

the team's previous game margin is between -100 and -1

the team's game number is between 2 and 6

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

$4,438

WON

317-258-17

RECORD

55%

WIN%

View System

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

• KaVontae Turpin's TD catch for the Cowboys' only TD Sunday night catapulted him to near the top of the 2023 list.
• Jaleel McLaughlin has been the TD champion so far in 2023. Anytime top-six and first + 1st Team TD top scorer.

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

• McLaughlin is at the top, but look at the defenses in the top six: Carolina, New Orleans and Pittsburgh.
• No Bengals TD is the fourth-most profitable 1st Team TD bet this season, profiting 32 units in five games.

League Trends ⤵️

Windy Weather

Bet Those Unders

+ Games with 10+ MPH winds are 6-0 to the under this year, going under the total by 8.9 PPG.

+ Games with 10+ MPH winds are 98-50 to the under in last three seasons (66.2%) and 179-121 (60%) since 2018. Over the last 20 years, these unders hit at a 57% rate.

+ Best windy under home teams: NYG, MIA, BAL, CLE, PHI, NE

+ Week 6: nine games are a potential match

Off London

No Rest

Only 11 times in NFL history has a team returned home from Europe without a bye week.

Every one of those teams was tied or trailing in the fourth quarter the following week.

Opponent team totals are 7-4 to the over.

Under The Radar

Following Steam

In games this season where the total fell from the opening to closing lines (ex. 55.5 to 55), the under is 31-18

The market line movement has done an incredible job at predicting unders in the NFL recently. Since 2021, unders are 208-157-1 (57%) when the total has dropped between the opening and closing lines, with a $100 bettor up $3,338, a +9% ROI.

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Biggest Super Bowl Riser

Cincinnati Bengals: 20-1 (CIN was 35-1 to win SB last week)

Biggest Super Bowl Faller

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 80-1 (TB was 66-1 to win SB last week)

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

NFL Win Total Grid & Progress

Trending Up 📈
49ers					5-0	Win Total: 10.5
Colts					3-2	Win Total: 6.5
Buccaneers					3-1	Win Total: 6.5
Eagles					5-0	Win Total: 11.5
Lions					4-1	Win Total: 9.5
Dolphins					4-1	Win Total: 9.5
Falcons					3-2	Win Total: 8.5
Steelers					3-2	Win Total: 8.5
Seahawks					3-2	Win Total: 8.5
Chiefs					4-1	Win Total: 11.5
Cowboys					3-2	Win Total: 9.5
Jaguars					3-2	Win Total: 9.5
Saints					3-2	Win Total: 9.5
Texans					2-3	Win Total: 6.5
Raiders					2-2	Win Total: 6.5
Rams					2-3	Win Total: 6.5

Trending Down 📉
Commanders					2-3	Win Total: 6.5
Ravens					3-2	Win Total: 10.5
Bills					3-2	Win Total: 10.5
Packers					2-3	Win Total: 7.5
Titans					2-3	Win Total: 7.5
Cardinals					1-4	Win Total: 4.5
Browns					2-2	Win Total: 9.5
Chargers					2-3	Win Total: 9.5
Jets					2-3	Win Total: 9.5
Bengals					2-3	Win Total: 11.5
Bears					1-4	Win Total: 7.5
Patriots					1-4	Win Total: 7.5
Giants					1-4	Win Total: 7.5
Broncos					1-4	Win Total: 8.5
Vikings					1-4	Win Total: 8.5
Panthers					0-5	Win Total: 7.5

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Odds	3rd In Odds
NFL MVP	Patrick Mahomes (+350)	Tua Tagovailoa (+500)	Josh Allen (+600)
Offensive POY	Christian McCaffrey (+175)	Tyreek Hill (+300)	Justin Jefferson (+950)
Defensive POY	Micah Parsons (+200)	Myles Garrett (+275)	T.J. Watt (+350)
Offensive ROY	CJ Stroud (+175)	Devon Achane (+400)	Puka Nacua (+450)
Defensive ROY	Jalen Carter (-175)	Devon Witherspoon (+350)	Will Anderson (+1400)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (-200)	Tua Tagovailoa (+350)	Baker Mayfield (+1600)
Coach Of The Year	Dan Campbell (+400)	Mike McDaniel (+400)	Kyle Shanahan (+550)
Updated as of October 11th

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• Welcome Brock Purdy to the party. He opened at 25-1, got as high as 40-1 and is now 7-1 to win MVP.
• Jalen Carter for OROY joins Damar Hamlin for Comeback as only favorites odds-on.
• Bijan moves to fourth in OROY. Achane to second at +400 and Puka to third at +450.

Trivia Instructions

For this weeks trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: In the first five weeks of the year, five teams currently don't have a loss when placed in a 6-point teaser. Name them.

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