Each week during the 2023-24 NFL season, I'll be sharing my favorite picks against the spread (ATS) and bets for every Sunday slate. Let's get to my NFL Week 6 predictions and best picks against the spread for today, including two huge underdogs.
I very much deserved a 1-2 record last Sunday with awful calls on both the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots. That brought my season-long record on these to 10-7 (58.8%) for +2.4 units. For my NFL Week 6 picks and predictions, I'll detail my three favorite spreads — including two of the ugliest sides I may bet all year in the NFL.
Let's kick things off with a pair of early picks on Seahawks vs. Bengals and Panthers vs. Dolphins before finishing up in primetime.
NFL Week 6 Predictions: 3 Best Picks Against the Spread
Here's everything you need to know for your expert betting preview in NFL Week 6, featuring our top betting expert's 3 best picks against the spread for today in his NFL Week 6 predictions.
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Coming into the season, I was lower than the market on the Seahawks, who really collapsed in the second half of last season. Geno Smith remains a major regression candidate in my eyes and I'm not as sold on the defense as others. After three straight victories, I've had Seattle circled as a potential sell candidate in the near term. Wins over the Giants and Panthers obviously didn't change my perception of this team. And while the victory in Detroit was fairly impressive, it still took a pick six to get to overtime against a banged up Lions squad.
Conversely, I circled Cincinnati as a buy candidate after what I saw from Joe Burrow last week. Through the first four games of the season, he rated as one of the three worst quarterbacks in the league. He was clearly hobbled by his calf injury, which prevented him from stepping into his throws. It also took away his ability to move in the pocket and use his legs to scramble when needed. Consequently, he simply wasn't going through his progressions and appeared to be trying to just get the ball out as quick as he possibly could.
Well, that all changed last week outside of a couple throws to the outside that came up a bit short. Burrow demonstrated adequate mobility and went through his reads in the pocket. He looked like his old self, or at least 95% of what we're used to seeing. Plus, in addition to the injury, most expected Burrow to start a bit slow after missing time leading up to the regular season, which also happened in each of the two previous seasons. It was naturally going to take him time to find his rhythm and timing, injury notwithstanding. As a result, it's no surprise that Burrow has gone 19-8 ATS (70.4%) in Week 6 or later in his carer.
Burrow should continue to get better with each passing week and will get to face a Seattle defensive line that likely won't bother him too much when he drops back to pass. I also liked some of the scheme adjustments I saw last week with a much sharper use of play-action. This offense is definitely trending up in a major way.
On the other side of the ball, Cincinnati has had some issues giving up explosive runs due to some missed tackles (I'm looking at you, Nick Scott), but this is a game where the Cincinnati defensive line can force Smith into a critical mistake or two. Look out for Trey Hendrickson, who is playing out of his mind so far this season. If not for three penalties behind him on plays where he had sacks, he'd lead the league with nine.
Ultimately, I'm buying the home Bengals after what I saw from Burrow last week in a massive game for their season to get back to .500. Trust the better quarterback at under a field goal.
Trending: Joe Burrow is 17-4 straight-up (SU) and 17-3-1 ATS in his past 21 games against non-divisional opponents.
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Okay, I'm sure at least some of you can understand backing Burrow at home against Smith, but I might lose everyone with my next two sides. However, it's just that time of the year when I usually try to catch a falling knife with some of the worst teams in the league that nobody wants to bet anymore, leading to inflated numbers. Just to contextualize the historical success of buying low on these horrific teams and selling high on teams that look like a juggernaut, chew on these trends that cover the past 20 seasons:
- Winless road underdogs catching more than 10 in game six or later have gone 26-8 ATS (76.5%).
- Teams that are winless in their sixth game or later have gone 40-27 ATS on the road (59.7%).
- Teams that average over 35 points per game have gone just 20-38-4 ATS (34.5%) against opponents that average fewer than 20, including 6-15-1 (28.6%) in game six or later.
- From Week 5 on, teams who are covering by five ppg or more on the year, like the Dolphins, facing a team with a .250 win pct. or less have gone just 65-109-5 ATS (37.4%). This also applies to the Bills-Giants game.
- The Dolphins are averaging a ridiculous 8.3 yards per play — the second-best all-time mark through five games behind the 2000 Rams at 8.5. However, that's a tough level to sustain, which partly explains why teams that average six-plus yards per play or greater in game six or later have gone just 15-28-1 ATS (35%) since 2020.
Look, I'm not going to sit here and wax poetic about a horrific Panthers team that also has a number of key injuries on the defensive side of the ball (although at least cornerback Donte Jackson should return). I'm simply buying low on the Panthers at an inflated number. I also don't mind fading the Dolphins as a two-touchdown favorite because of their poor defense, which actually is tied for second-to-last in the league (with the Panthers) for Success Rate allowed.
In regards to Carolina's defense, it has actually fared much better against the pass, which is important in this matchup, especially with Miami recently putting explosive rookie running back De'Von Achane on IR.
This is a big number for a team with a bad defense to cover in a game that might have some inclement weather conditions that would certainly help the underdog. This also isn't a great situational spot for the Dolphins, who have the Eagles on deck. As a result, there's really no incentive for Mike McDaniel to show more than he has to with his offense. I expect Miami to play a fairly conservative game, relative to normal, especially if they get up by margin in the second half, which could leave the backdoor wide open against an offense that has demonstrated an ability to put up points in garbage time. Plus, Bryce Young has started to look a bit more comfortable, even if it still isn't a pretty watch.
I'm holding my nose and backing the winless Panthers.
Trending: Teams that are double-digit favorites in consecutive games have gone 52-62 ATS (45.6%) over the past 20 years in that second game. When they cover the previous game, they are just 21-36 ATS (37%).
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If you hated that pick, I'm sure you love this one. Yes, I'm trying to catch another falling knife with the Giants, who have burnt bettors every single week this season and have yet to cover a single game in 2023. That said, I just can't get to this number, even with New York having injuries on both sides of the ball, including quarterback Daniel Jones, who didn't practice again on Thursday. If Jones can't go, the Giants would turn to Tyrod Taylor, who at least has experience and grades out as one of the better backup options in the league.
Coming into the season, I would have downgraded the Giants two points with Jones out, but I'm not so sure anymore with Jones looking completely broken in the pocket after being swarmed incessantly by opposing defenses on almost every play. Without Andrew Thomas, the offensive line is an absolute mess and essentially playing five guys who all profile more as guards. Taylor brings mobility, experience and potentially a spark to an offense that needs one.
Speaking of sparks, the Giants could also get Saquon Barkley back from injury. That would provide a massive boost to an offense that has no semblance of a running game without the former Penn State product. The New York offense operates best when working through Barkley to set up play-action, which has decreased in frequency in his absence.
Changes must be made after another disastrous offensive output last week in Miami, so maybe going with a much heavier rushing attack that features Taylor and Barkley (assuming he's healthy) with heavy 12 personnel (where New York has a significantly higher success rate than any other formation), is potentially in the cards against a Buffalo defense that can be exploited on the ground.
Additionally, head coach Brian Daboll has a ton of familiarity with both the Buffalo offense and defense after serving as the offensive coordinator under Sean McDermott for four years. That familiarity should help him craft a more effective game plan.
Even following a loss, this isn't an ideal situational spot for Buffalo after having to play in London last week. We've seen defenses struggle a bit the week after playing overseas without a bye week in between games. Plus, the Bills have recently lost three of their best defenders to injury in lockdown corner Tre'Davious White, All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano (also the heart and soul of the defense) and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones, who was playing at an All-Pro level. Naturally, we can expect the Bills defense to take a step back without a trio of star players, especially in the short term as McDermott adjusts to life without those three.
I'm simply buying low on the Giants here with a number that I think has some value, especially over two touchdowns against a Bills team that is traveling back from London and must make do without some of its best defensive players. Similar to Carolina, I could provide you with countless trends as to why buying low in this spot has been a profitable endeavor in the past, but I'll highlight just one in particular:
Teams that are double-digit underdogs for a second-straight game have gone 68-42-3 ATS (61.8%) over the past 20 years. And when they don't cover in the first game, as the Giants didn't last week, they've enjoyed even more success at 46-23-1 (66.7%) ATS. That makes sense to me because who wants to back a bad team catching double digits after it got blown out and failed to cover so the week prior? Not many, which is why you often see value in these spots with an inflated number.
Trending: Teams that have yet to cover in game six or beyond as underdog: 17-8-1 ATS (68%), including 5-1 as double-digit underdogs with three of six winning outright.
