Sam Howell Under 238.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Commanders vs. Falcons | 1 p.m. ET
Sam Howell leads all quarterbacks in Pass Rate Over Expectation and averages 269.8 pass yards per game. He has surpassed this mark in three consecutive games, but it's time to sell high.
His inflated passing numbers have largely been attributed to the game script, which often puts his team in a position to move the ball downfield while playing from behind. Over the last three weeks, Howell has faced top-ranked teams like the Eagles and the Bills and, most recently, against the Bears, where the Commanders trailed by a whopping 24 points at halftime.
Commanders head coach Ron Rivera loves to establish the run, and today's matchup with the Falcons, with a close 1.5-point spread, presents a quality opportunity to return to the team's offensive identity.
As a unit, the Falcons' secondary has become more intimidating compared to last season, primarily due to the promising cornerback duo of A.J. Terrell and Jeff Okudah. It's challenging to envision Howell's weapons in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson creating big plays against them.
The Falcons pass defense allows the second-fewest yards after catch, and they only allow 199.2 yards per opposing quarterback (fifth lowest). As a result, four of the last five quarterbacks to face the Falcons have gone under their passing-yards prop. I like this trend to continue in Week 6.
John Metchie III Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Saints vs. Texans | 1 p.m. ET
After being selected in the second round, John Metchie III could not play in the 2022 season due to cancer. However, he has made an extraordinary recovery and is now playing in his "rookie" season in 2023. Metchie has been making significant progress on the field, and with Tank Dell (concussion) ruled out against the Saints, Metchie has an excellent opportunity to shine.
Despite only playing in three games this season and being on a limited snap count, Metchie has already cleared this prop twice. Texans offensive coordinator, Ben Slowik, has voiced his intention to increase Metchie's role, and this came to fruition in Week 5 when his snap count nearly doubled from 23% to 43%.
Pro Football Focus reports that Metchie ran a season-high 18 routes on Stroud's dropbacks in Week 5, which was almost triple his average of 6.7 routes per game from Weeks 1-3.
The Texans are gearing up for a challenging game against the Saints, who are known for their formidable defense and preference for man coverage (third-highest rate).
But I see an edge here because Marshon Lattimore will be covering Nico Collins.
While the Saints boast a top-five defensive DVOA against opposing WR1s and tight ends, they are 23rd in DVOA allowed against opposing WR3s – exactly where Metchie should line up and benefit in the upcoming matchup.
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