NFL Week 7 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Where has all the scoring gone? The story of the NFL entering Week 7 is low scoring games and unders across the board. We are currently seeing the best under rate entering Week 7 since 1991.

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 7 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, October. 22, 1 a.m. ET.

Talk of the League

Under Time

Unders went 12-2-1 in Week 6 (best under rate for single week since 1996) and are 56-36-1 entering Week 7.

Unders are hitting at 61% rate, the highest under win rate through six weeks since 1991 and the second-most profitable start for unders since 2005. The best? Last season.

Unders are 164-115-2 through six weeks over the last three years. The best three years to the under through Week 6: 2022, 2023, 2021.

Scoring is down:

• Teams averaged 18.4 PPG in Week 6, the lowest since Week 15, 2014 (18.3).
• For only the second time since 1994, nine teams won in the NFL last week without scoring 21 points.
  + The 5.2 yards per play mark would be end of season lowest since 2007.
  + The 2.32 TD/game for a team would be lowest end season mark since 2006.
  + Yards per attempt is below 7.0. Hasn’t ended year there since 2008.

Down and Easy

Saints Unders

Saints are the only team in the NFL to play six games this season that have gone under the total.

Dating back to last season, the under has cashed in 12 straight Saints games, including going 15-1 to the under in their last 16 games overall.

The Saints' 12 straight unders is tied for the longest over or under streak outside of a single season in the Wild Card era with the 2010-11 Cowboys going over in 12 straight games and the 1996-97 Jets, also going over in 12 straight games.

Historic Home Dogs

Take Me Back

Patriots are between 8.5 and 9-point home underdogs this week. Their biggest home underdog line since 2001. If they close at +9 or higher, it would be their highest home dog line since facing the Colts and Peyton Manning back in 2001, Tom Brady's first career start.

Public Darlings

Great Start

Public Sides, which are teams with 51% of tickets or more, are 56-32 SU, 51-34-3 ATS (+$1,222) this season.

The most profitable start for the public through Week 6 in the Bet Labs database. Public has been .500 ATS or better in all six weeks.

Oh Kirk

Cousins Meets MNF

In Kirk Cousins' career, he has started 40 games in primetime – which are high profile games, night, playoffs, overseas, Saturday, etc. Cousins is 16-23-1 SU, 15-25 ATS. At night, he is 11-19 SU, 12-18 ATS.

4-3 SU in primetime since start of last season. ATS has been issue: 1-6 ATS.

In his career, Cousins is 2-10 straight up and against the spread on Monday Night Football. His 2-10 SU mark is the worst for any QB on MNF and his teams average 16.5 PPG on MNF while allowing 25 PPG.

All About Wind

Week 7 Matches

Outdoor windy games have been a profitable trend recently for unders. Over the last 20 years, they are 57.1% to the under. In 2023, these games are 11-1-1 to the under, including 103-51-1 to the under last three seasons.

We are looking for games that close with 10+ MPH winds. Here is the current weather report via Action Network.

When Will It End?

Ridder 1H Woes

Falcons have struggled in the first half under Desmond Ridder, going 0-10 against the first half spread in his career. They are failing to cover first half spread by 6.4 PPG.

First half points under Ridder: 3, 9, 7, 10, 14, 3, 3, 0, 7, 10

Dating back to college, Ridder has lost 12 straight against the spread in the first half.

Tight Spreads

3 Pts Or Less

Currently, nine of the 13 games (69%) in Week 7 have a spread of 3 points or less.

Since the merger in 1970 there have only been five other weeks where more than two-thirds of the games had spreads of 3 points or less.

10 of 14 games (71%) happened in
– 2017, week 5
– 2016, week 10
– 2005, week 5
– 1983, week 7

Nine of 13 games (69%) also happened in 2016, Week 8

10 (63%) is most games with a spread of 3 points or less in a 16-game week, which has happened six times (most recently in 2016, Week 1) (via Sports Odds History).

Jaguars at Saints | Thursday, Oct 19

8:20pm ET | Amazon

NO -2 | 41

Jaguars

• NFL first half unders are now 85-58-2 (59%) in night games since 2021, including 24-14-1 on TNF and 28-16 on MNF in that span.
• Thursday home teams are just 22-35 ATS since 2020, including 20-31 ATS in night Thursday games (worst of any day of week for home teams at night).
  Since 2020, Thursday home teams at night 20-31 ATS. All other days of the week, 76-68-3 ATS.
• Bet home teams on Thursday night? Since 2020, they are only 24-27 SU. They are 87-60 SU on all other nights.
• Doug Pederson is 7-0 straight up on Thursday Night Football.
• CJ Beathard hasn't started a game since 2020. He has 12 career starts and is 2-10 (5-7 ATS).
• This will be Trevor Lawrence’s fifth career night game. He is 3-1 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 6 PPG. Lawrence is 4-0 in a 6-pt teaser in his night game career.
  Lawrence is 3-0 ATS as an underdog at night and 0-1 ATS as a favorite
• In franchise history, the Jaguars are 4-12 SU and 5-11 ATS in road night games.
• As head coach, Doug Pederson is 20-8 SU and 18-10 ATS in night games.
  Pederson is 3-0 SU in night games with Jaguars.
  In the last 20 years, his 20-8 SU mark (+$1,598) is the most profitable ML mark in the NFL of 135 coaches.
  In the last 20 years, his 18-10 ATS mark at night is fourth-best (third with an ATS cover this week).
• For the Jaguars under Lawrence, its been a bit tough after divisional games, going 4-8 ATS in his career. He’s never covered consecutive games in this spot.
• Lawrence is 12-19 SU as an underdog in his career, but 9-7 SU since the start of last season (3-12 SU as a dog in his rookie year).
• Lawrence has struggled vs. bad teams. He is 6-13 ATS vs. teams .500 SU or worse and under .500 ATS in this spot all three years of his career + he’s lost three in a row ATS in this spot.
• Jaguars have won seven straight road/neutral games ATS dating back to last season
• Lawrence is 19-23 ATS in his career – 14-11 ATS w/ Doug Pederson, 5-12 ATS w/ Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer
• Lawrence is 19-23 against 1H spread career, but this season has been a turn around for Lawrence. He is 5-1 1H ATS this season, tied for best in the NFL with Jared Goff and CJ Stroud.
• Lawrence is 16-8-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season – the second-most profitable 2H ATS QB in the NFL behind Joe Burrow.
• Looking for a Lawrence anytime TD? He’s scored in just six of 42 career games – his last coming in December of last year.
• Lawrence on the moneyline as an underdog
  Home: 7-6 SU
  Road/Neutral: 5-13 SU
• Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite.
  Underdog: 31-23 ATS (6-1 ATS last 7 games)
  Favorite: 26-31 ATS
• Jaguars are 8-16 SU off a loss under Lawrence. They are 8-7 SU off of a win.
  Lawrence is 9-15 ATS career off a loss and 9-6 ATS off a SU win.

---

---

Saints

• Saints are the only team in the NFL where all six of their games this season have gone under the total.
  Dating back to last season, the under has cashed in 12 straight Saints games, including going 15-1 to the under in their last 16 games overall.
  The Saints' 12 straight unders is tied for the longest over or under streak outside of a single season in the Wild Card era with the 2010-11 Cowboys going over in 12 straight games and the 1996-97 Jets, also going over in 12 straight games.
  The Saints have held opponents under 21 points in 13 of their last 14 games.

Longest Over or Under Streaks – Single Season in Wild Card era
12 Overs – 2010-11 Cowboys
11 Overs – 2007-08 Jaguars
11 Unders – 2008-09 Washington
11 Unders – 2003-04 Bills
10 Unders – 2011-12 Dolphins
10 Overs – 2002 Bengals
10 Unders – 1990 Steelers

Longest Over or Under Streaks – in Wild Card era
12 Unders – 2022-23 Saints
12 Overs – 2010-11 Cowboys
12 Overs – 1996-97 Jets
11 Unders – 2008-09 Washington
11 Overs – 2007-08 Jaguars
11 Overs – 2005-06 Jets
11 Unders – 2003-04 Bills
11 Unders – 1990-91 Steelers
10 Unders – 2021-22 Bengals
10 Unders – 2021-22 Colts
10 Unders – 2018-19 Broncos
10 Unders – 2015-16 Falcons
10 Unders – 2011-12 Dolphins
10 Overs – 2002 Bears

• Derek Carr is 13-14 SU, 14-10-3 ATS in night games in his career. 1-0 SU/ATS with the Saints. Carr is 1-5-2 ATS in night games as a favorite == 122nd of 128 QBs last 20 years. Carr is 13-5-1 ATS in night games as an underdog == 2nd of 192 QBs last 20 years.
• Historically, the Saints have been a tough opponent at night in the Superdome. Not so much anymore. Between 2003-19, they were 27-8 SU at home in night games. Since 2020, they are 1-6 SU and have lost five straight. NO QB at home in night games last 30 years: Brees 26-8 SU | others: 4-12 SU
• Saints next four games before bye: Hobbled Trevor Lawrence, no Anthony Richardson, hurt Justin Fields, maybe no Justin Jefferson.
• Superdome isn’t scary anymore. NO is 7-10 SU at home last three seasons – only three teams have fewer SU wins than that (HOU, ARI, CHI).
• Saints are 0-7 ATS at home in primetime since 2020.
• Carr is facing a defense allowing fewer than 21 PPG on the season with the Jaguars – he is 31-20 ATS in those games. Compared to 32-53-3 ATS vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or more.
• Allen-coached teams are just 4-10-1 ATS vs. teams who are over .500 SU on the season. Allen is under .500 ATS in all five of his seasons as a head coach.
• In his career, Dennis Allen is 18-41 SU. His 30.5% win pct is ninth worst among all head coaches in the Super Bowl era. Here is the worst list since 2000:
  Hue Jackson, Steve Spagnuolo, Gus Bradley, Pat Shurmur, Dave McGinnis, Dennis Allen.
• Allen has coached seven career games on short rest and his teams are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS.
• Allen is 22-35-2 ATS in his career as a coach.
  Allen’s 22-35-2 ATS mark is third-worst for any coach last 20 years:

1. Jon Gruden, 146. Mike Shanahan, 145. Dennis Allen

• Derek Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime now for the 5th time in his career this year, and is still struggling to cover the spread. 26-34-2 ATS in those previous four seasons and 1-4-1 ATS in 2023 with Saints.
  15: 8-8 ATS, 17: 5-8-2 ATS, 18: 6-10 ATS, 22: 7-8 ATS, 23: 1-4-1 ATS
• Looks like the Saints will be favorites vs. Jaguars, which isn’t a good thing for Derek Carr.
  Favorite: 17-33-2 ATS
  Underdog: 52-44-1 ATS
• In games where Carr is a favorite or a small underdog, his teams have struggled.
  As favorite or underdog of 3 or less: 35-48-3 ATS
  Dog of more than 3 points: 34-29 ATS
• Carr is 21-34-2 ATS on the road since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (123 of 123 QBs). He’s 22-22-1 ATS at home in that span.
• Carr was 17-29-2 ATS as a favorite with the Raiders, with a $100 bettor down $1,286. Now with the Saints he is 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite.
  Carr is the second-least profitable (212 of 213) QB as a favorite in the past 20 years. He’s ahead of just Carson Palmer.
  Carr hasn’t had a year above .500 ATS as a favorite since 2016

---

---

Falcons at Buccaneers | Sunday, Oct. 22

1:00pm ET | FOX

TB -2.5 | 37

Falcons

• Bet dogs with low totals. Underdogs with O/U of below 42 are 73-41-2 ATS (64%) in the first eight weeks since 2018. These dogs are 17-8-1 ATS this season. Those same dogs with low totals are 154-102-5 ATS (60.2%) at any point in the season since 2018
  Week 7: JAC, NYG, ATL, CHI, NE, IND
• Since covering against the Commanders in Week 1, the Falcons have lost five straight ATS.
• Desmond Ridder is 3-0 ATS vs. NFC South and 0-7 ATS vs. all other divisions.
• Falcons have struggled in the first half under Desmond Ridder, going 0-10 against the first half spread in his career. They are failing to cover 1H spread by 6.4 PPG. 1H points under Ridder: 3, 9, 7, 10, 14, 3, 3, 0, 7, 10. Dating back to college, Ridder has lost 12 straight 1H ATS.
• Arthur Smith…
  Sept-Oct: 10-11 ATS
  Nov. on: 6-12-1 ATS
  Smith is 6-4 ATS in first four games of the season – his teams are 10-17-1 ATS in Game 5 forward.
• Falcons continue their journey have playing zero games this season with a positive rest differential vs. their opponent.
  Played on road before game in London (Wk 3, 4) seven of last 11 games on the road
• The Falcons lost at home in Week 6 vs. Commanders breaking Desmond Ridder’s streak of 31 consecutive wins at home in college and pros (31-1 SU, 19-13 ATS).
  On the road, Ridder has been much worse.
  NFL: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS
  CFB: 15-4 SU, 9-10 ATS (3-2 SU/ATS neutral)
  Total: 15-8 SU, 10-13 ATS

Ridder Home/Road NFL Career

---

---

Buccaneers

• Baker Mayfield is 32-43-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,250 (270th of 277 QBs in the last 20 years).
  Baker is 20-20 ATS as an underdog and 12-23-1 ATS as a favorite
• Baker’s 12-23-1 ATS mark as a favorite 206th of 213 QBs last 20 years
• Baker is 13-22-1 ATS at home in his career. He’s never finished a season above .500 ATS at home – He’s ranked 110th of 112 QBs since he entered the league.
• Baker is 3-9 ATS as a favorite in his career vs. division opponents. He’s lost seven consecutive starts against the spread in this spot dating back to 2019.
• Todd Bowles team have struggled mightily off of a loss. They are 18-30 SU, 18-28-2 ATS in that spot, including 1-8-1 ATS with the Bucs.
• Overall, dogs in div games ~60 games above .500 ATS last decade – 182-142-3 ATS since 2020.
• Fade home division teams. Since 2015, they are 367-416-19 (46%), 13-15 ATS this year. When that home division team is a favorite, even worse: 217-268-14 ATS (44.7%).
• Home favorites in division games have been a bet bet recently. They are 217-268-14 ATS (44.7%) since 2015, including 34-52 ATS last two seasons.
  WK 7: TB, SEA, KC
• Team who score 6 points or less the previous week are 111-89-4 ATS (55.5%) the next week last 20 years. When they are listed as an underdog, 78-55-2 ATS, only 33-34-2 ATS as a favorite.
  Week 7 matches: TB
  Since 2018, only three teams have been in this spot off a bye week like the Browns. They are 0-3 SU/ATS, with each losing by 14+ points.

---

---

Raiders at Bears | Sunday, Oct. 22

1:00pm ET | FOX

LV -2.5 | 37.5

Raiders

• Josh McDaniels started his career 6-0 SU/ATS in Denver. Since that run, McDaniels coached teams are 14-31 SU and 18-27 ATS.
• Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas
  Raiders at home in Vegas: 13-15 SU, 15-13 ATS
  On road/neutral: 14-15 SU, 12-17 ATS
  LV is most profitable road/neutral team on ML since moving to Vegas (+$707)
• Josh McDaniels coached teams fade late
  13-14 SU in Sept-Oct
  7-17 SU in Nov or later
• Raiders are going to go to a backup QB this week with Jimmy Garoppolo hurt. This will be only the 11th time the Raiders have to go to a backup QB over the last decade and the first time they have to do it twice in a season since 2017.
  Raiders backups have struggled, going 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in those games.
• Hoyer in his career is 16-25 SU, 22-17-2 ATS. Since 2018, Hoyer has started three games. His teams are 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS, scoring 24, 12 and 10 points in each game.
  Hoyer is 8-4 SU as a favorite and 8-21 SU as an underdog.
  He’s struggled on the road, going 6-15 SU in his career, last being listed as a road favorite back in 2014 with the Browns.
• How do Josh McDaniels coached teams deal with expectations, actually not as bad as you would think. This would be the 8th game for McDaniels off of a SU win, where his team is the favorite and they are 5-2 SU/ATS in those games.

---

---

Bears

• If Tyson Bagent starts Sunday, he will be the 25th Bears QB to make a start for the team in the last 20 years. Only 5 of those 24 QBs have been profitable ATS as a Bear, with the leader being Kyle Orton at 18-12-3 ATS with Chicago.
• With the Bears going to a backup Sunday, this will be the 35th game Chicago will start a backup QB over the last decade. Bears are 9-25 SU, 13-21 ATS in those games, including 1-9 SU, 2-8 ATS in their last ten games in the spot dating back to 2021. They’ve lost five straight home games SU/ATS with a backup QB.
• Bears won their first game in 347 days two weeks ago against the Commanders. Chicago now returns home again and hopes to break another losing streak.
  Chicago has lost 10 consecutive home games, with their last win at Soldier Field coming back on Sept. 25, 2022 against the Texans – the end of a 3-game SU win streak at home for Chicago. That is the longest home losing streak in Bears history.
  The longest home losing streak is 14 done by 2008-10 Rams and 1988-89 Cowboys.
  Perspective: 12 straight home losses has been done twice since 1990: 2008-10 Rams & 1995-97 Jets.
• Bears are 18-28-1 ATS vs. non-NFC North divisions since 2019, 2nd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Falcons.
• Bear games finally went under the total vs. Vikings last week. Bears are 5-1 to the over this year and 15-8 to the over since start of last season, best mark in the NFL.
• Chicago is 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall and they are 2-18 SU in their last 20 games overall.
• Chicago only allowed 19 points vs. Vikings in the Week 6 loss, breaking their 15-game streak of allowing 20 pointss or more and their 8-game streak of allowing 25 points or more at home.
• Who is the most profitable teams ATS to bet against last few seasons?
  Since start of last season: 16-6-1 ATS (best)
  Last 3 years: 27-12-1 ATS (best)
  Last 4 years: 36-20-1 ATS (best)
  Last 5 years: 48-23-2 ATS (best)

---

---

Browns at Colts | Sunday, Oct. 22

1:00pm ET | CBS

CLE -3.5 | 41

Browns

• PJ Walker's teams have never lost a home game that he's started in the NFL or XFL. He’s 4-0 SU at home and 1-3 SU on the road in the NFL and he was 3-0 SU at home in the XFL with the Houston Roughnecks. He won his last six home starts at Temple in 2016. Last loss? Against Army on Sept 2, 2016.
• If Deshaun Watson starts in Week 7, he’ll be coming off a decent layoff since his injury. Here is how Deshaun Watson has performed based on rest normally:
  Short rest: 11-1 SU, 7-3-2 ATS
  Normal rest: 16-19 SU, 16-19 ATS
  Extended rest: 6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS
• Browns defense has been unreal entering Week 7. Some notes:
  1,002 yds allowed this season – lowest mark through five games since 1971 Baltimore Colts (3rd team 1,000 or under since merger).
  Opponents have had nine red zone attempts vs. Browns defense, fewest in NFL
  Opponents are converting 3rd downs 23.1%, lowest pct in the NFL. That 23.1% is 5th-lowest in Wild Card era (1990).
  18.8% of drives ending in an offensive score, lowest in NFL. Opponent avg drive time of 1:00, lowest in NFL by almost 20 seconds.
  Opponents have 52 1st downs in 5 games, lowest for any defense since 1970 Vikings.
• Watson is 2-1 ATS this season. Watson hasn’t finished above .500 ATS since rookie year (2017).
• Watson’s 9.5 intended air yards per attempt is the 2nd-highest in the NFL behind Jordan Love.
• Stefanski with Browns
  Favorite: 20-10 SU, 11-19 ATS
  Dog: 9-17 SU, 14-11-1 ATS
• Browns are 9-18 SU, 10-17 ATS after a SU win under Stefanski.
  Since 2021, he’s 4-12 ATS in this spot, least profitable coach in the NFL.
  Browns are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games after a SU win.
• Cowboys played the 49ers last week. Teams after playing the 49ers are 2-19 SU, 4-15-2 ATS since the start of last season, including 17-39 SU, 21-33-2 ATS since 2020.

---

---

Colts

• Anthony Richardson is most likely done for the season. Which means in Indy its Minshew Time.
  Minshew is 2-6 SU in “toss up” games. Spread of 3 or less and 3-9 SU in games with spread of 4 or less.
• Colts got back Jonathan Taylor a few weeks ago, but he hasn’t gotten a ton of carries as of yet.
  Colts when Taylor gets 10+ carries: 21-16-1 SU
  Fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play: 6-12 SU
• Gardner Minshew is 2-11 SU in his last 13 starts – he broke a streak of 8 consecutive losses SU as a dog against the Ravens earlier this season. He’s 2-10 ATS in his last 12 starts (4-10 ATS since 2020).
• Colts QBs have struggled in the back up role. They are 5-15 SU (9-11 ATS) since 2017.
• Minshew has faced seven teams above .500 SU in his career, his teams are 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS.
• One thing Minshew has helped with is fewer bad throws vs. Richardson.
  AR: 21% bad throw % (3rd-worst in NFL)
  GM: 8.2% bad throw % (3rd-best in NFL)
• When Minshew’s opponent scores more than 20 points, he is 1-14 SU.
  Minshew has faced nine teams allowing 21 PPG or less on the season. When that opponent scores 20 points or more, Minshew is 0-7 SU.
• Turnovers are contagious early in the year. Teams after losing the turnover battle by 3 or more in their previous game in Sept. or October are 179-213-11 ATS (45.7%) last 20 years in their next game. This season they are 5-11-2 ATS.
  Week 7: PHI, IND, ATL

---

---

Lions at Ravens | Sunday, Oct. 22

1:00pm ET | FOX

BAL -3 | 43

Lions

• Goff is 17-5-1 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL – he’s covered 5 1H ATS in a row.
• Lions are 28-12 ATS (70%) since the start of the 2021 season, most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($1,353). 2nd-best is Dallas. Lions are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
  Lions are halfway to 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons (5-1 ATS this year). Prior to this stretch, Lions had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995.
  Most profitable QB against the spread…
• Since 2022: Jared Goff (17-6 ATS)
• Since 2021: Jared Goff (26-11 ATS)
• Since 2020: Jared Goff (34-19 ATS)
• Since 2019: Jared Goff (44-24-1 ATS)
• Since 2018: Jared Goff (53-33-2 ATS)
• Since 2017: Jared Goff (62-40-2 ATS)
• Lions are facing the Ravens outdoors this week. Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor.
  Indoor: 28-14 ATS (18-6 ATS last 2 seasons)
  Outdoor: 34-33-2 ATS (25-19-1 ATS in Nov or earlier | 9-14-1 ATS in Dec/Jan)
• There is supposed to be 10+ MPH winds in Baltimore Sunday. Hasn’t impact Lions points recently. Their road output in 10+ MPH winds last 4 games: 20, 20, 23, 31 (4-4 SU/ATS in Goff’s career).
• Dating back to last season, Goff has covered 7 straight games vs. above .500 SU opponents, going 12-3 ATS in this spot since 2021 – best mark in the NFL.
  Since the start of 2021, Goff is 10-1 ATS vs. teams with a 66% win pct or higher.
• If you want to “fade Detroit” – Lions are 5-1 ATS to start year (so are Dolphins). In first eight games of the season (first half basically), any team on a 5-1 ATS mark in a 6-game span is 63-88-2 ATS (41.7%) in their next game last 20 years.

---

---

Ravens

• The Ravens will be the 14th team to return from London without a bye week. Twelve of the previous 13 teams were either tied or trailing at some point in the 4th quarter. The one exception were the Jaguars this past week, who dominated the Colts – but also spent an extra week in London, playing back-to-back games there.
• Lamar Jackson has faced the NFC in 16 games, he is 15-1 SU, 7-9 ATS. His one loss came vs. Giants last season. His .938 win pct is best by any QB against the opposing conference since the 1970 merger.
• Harbaugh is 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and 4 games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
• Harbaugh is 150-108-9 1H ATS with $100 bettor up $3,455, most of any coach in NFL since 2005.
• Over the past three seasons, Jackson is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog but 8-16 ATS as a favorite, including 5-16 when favored by more than 3 points.
• Jackson is 18-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog. In all other spots he is 19-28 ATS career.
  He’s 3-13 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points since 2021, worst in the NFL.
• Jackson covers the 1H spread on the road/neutral, he’s 25-10-1 1H ATS and 17-17-1 1H ATS at home.
  Between 2021-23, he’s 14-15-1 1H ATS. From 2018-20, he was 28-12-1 1H ATS.
• Jackson is 23-9 SU and 11-21 ATS as a home favorite. Of 210 QBs over the last 20 years, he is ranked 205th ATS as a home favorite.
  He’s just 9-16 ATS playing a home game at 1P ET
• Lions and Ravens are both beating their opponents this season by 7+ PPG and they face off in Week 7. When two teams meet winning by 7+ PPG on the year this late in the season, favorite is 52-78-2 ATS (40%) last 20 years – 11-21-1 ATS since 2018.
  Favored by 3 or less? 20-34-2 ATS.
• What about win pct? Last 5 years, two teams 60%+ win pct face off. Dog is 106-87-1 ATS. This late into the season? 67-49-1 ATS.

---

---

Bills at Patriots | Sunday, Oct. 22

1:00pm ET | CBS

BUF -7.5 | 40.5

Bills

• Biggest Bills Spreads vs. Patriots Last 30 Years
  -8.5: 2021 at NE (W, 33-21)
  -7: 2022 vs. NE (W, 35-23)
• Biggest Bills Road Spread in New England In Super Bowl Era
  -14: 1992 at NE (W, 41-7)
  -9.5: 1993 at NE (W, 13-10)
  -8.5: 2021 at NE (W, 33-21)
  -8.5: 1991 at NE (L, 16-13)
  -7: 2020 at NE (W, 38-9)
  -7: 1975 at NE (W, 34-14)
• Josh Allen has 59 wins in his career. 45 of those 59 wins have been by 7 points or more.
• Allen has turnover issues: He has 66 INT since 2018, second-most in NFL (Baker has 67). He has 54 fumbles since 2018, T-most in NFL w/ Cousins.
  In the regular season: Allen has still has not had consecutive starts without a giveaway since Weeks 15-16, 2020.
• Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career.
  Allen is 31-18-3 ATS on seven days rest (10th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot)
  He’s 7-8-1 ATS on short rest and 6-11-1 ATS on extended rest.
• The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 54-33-3 against the second half spread. Since 2005, he’s the second-most profitable QB on the second half spread of 250 QBs.
  In his career, Allen is 7-2-1 2H ATS vs. Patriots, most profitable opponent.
  = Josh Allen vs AFC East
  NE: 7-2-1 ATS – Allen’s most profitable opponent ATS
  MIA/NYJ: 9-12-1 ATS

---

---

Patriots

• The Patriots haven’t closed as above a TD underdog at home since Nov. 18, 2001 as an 8.5 pt underdog at home against the Greatest Show on Turf Rams with Kurt Warner.

Largest Home Underdog – Patriots w/ Bill Belichick
+11.5: 2001 vs. IND (W, 44-13) – Peyton Manning
+8.5: 2001 vs. STL (L, 24-17) – Kurt Warner
+7: 2020 vs. BUF (L, 38-9) – Josh Allen
+7: 2020 vs. BAL (W, 23-17) – Lamar Jackson

• Bills are currently 9-pt favorites in New England in Week 7 — largest home dog for Pats since 2001 — Tom Brady's first start.

Largest Home Underdog – Patriots w/ Bill Belichick

+11.5: 2001 vs. IND (W, 44-13) – Peyton Manning
+9: 2023 vs. BUF

• The Patriots are averaging 1 point per drive this season, lowest mark in the NFL. For comparison, the Dolphins, No. 1 in the category, average over 3.2 points per drive (DEN averages at 1.9).
• Teams to travel from EST to PST have had 1H success going 101-63-3 1H ATS since 2017. In Week 7 that’s the Patriots.
• Patriots are 3-10 SU, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
• Patriots have struggled vs. the best and done well against some of the bad teams.
  Since 2019, Patriots are 15-22 SU, 13-22-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, 2nd-worst ATS mark in the NFL just ahead of the Bears.
  Since 2019, they are 19-6 SU, 16-9 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, including 10-6 ATS since 2020.
  In that same span, they are 9-20-1 ATS vs. teams who made playoffs previous season, 3rd-worst mark in the NFL (SEA, CHI). When they face a team who didn’t make the playoffs, they are 24-19-1 ATS in that span.
  Mac is 12-9 SU vs. teams who failed to make the playoffs the previous season and 5-12 SU vs. teams who did.
• Patriots have three takeaways through six games, fewest in the NFL.
  Tied for fewest takeaways through six games in Super Bowl era for the Patriots (2005).
• Patriots since 2020 without Tom Brady
  6-1 ATS vs. Jets
  3-11 ATS vs. Bills/Dolphins

Mac Jones:

• 0-14 SU when opponents scores more than 24 points. Mac is 17-7 SU when his defense allows 24 points or less. When Mac scores 21 points or less, NE is 4-15 SU.
• Jones is 15-22-1 ATS career – least profitable QB last 20 yrs under Belichick
  Mac is 5-0 ATS vs. Jets, Zack Wilson, 10-22-1 ATS vs. all other QBs
  Mac is 12-8-1 ATS as a favorite, 3-14 ATS as an underdog. Jones has lost 13 consecutive starts SU and ATS as an underdog.
  Over the last 20 years, Mac is ranked 269th of 271 QBs as an underdog ATS. He is the least profitable active QB as a dog ATS.
  Mac is 0-11 ATS as dog since start of last season – rest of NFL is 197-161-8 as a dog in that span.

Patriots Largest Underdog with Mac Jones
+8.5, 2022 at BUF (L, 35-23)
+6.5, 2023 at DAL (L, 38-3)
+6.5, 2021 vs. TB (L, 19-17)
+4.5, 2021 at BUF (L 47-17)

Bill Belichick

• Since Brady left, Belichick & NE are 26-31 SU, 25-31-1 ATS since 2020. Belichick without Tom Brady as head coach: 44-49 SU w/ NE, 36-45 SU w/ CLE.
• Since 2021, Belichick is 3-16 SU as an underdog. Between 2003-15 he was 25-22 SU as an underdog. In that same span, Belichick is 16-6 SU as a favorite.
• Since 2020, Belichick is just 11-17 SU in Sept & Oct. Between 2003-19, he was 100-26 SU in those months.
• Belichick as home dog w/ Patriots: 9-13 SU, 12-10 ATS. Belichick has lost 8 consecutive games SU as a home dog dating back to 2020 (0-6 ATS last five games as home dog, too).
  He’s 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS as a home dog with Mac Jones
  He’s 9-6 SU, 11-4 ATS as a home dog with all other QBs
• This will only be Belichick’s 9th home game as an underdog vs. an AFC East opponent.
  He’s 0-3 SU/ATS last 20 years in this spot.
  Overall he’s 3-5. 4-4 ATS as a home dog vs. AFC East

---

---

Commanders at Giants | Sunday, Oct. 22

1:00pm ET | CBS

WAS -3 | 37.5

Commanders

• When two bad defenses play. Go under. When both teams allow 24 PPG or more, the under is 55-33 (63%) last three seasons, including 9-5 this season.
  WK 7: NYG/WAS
• Sam Howell has been sacked 34 times so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL.
  Most Sacks Through 6 games all-time: 39 — David Carr (2002), 35 — David Carr (2005), 34 — Sam Howell (2023)
  NFL record for sacks taken in a season is 76, set by David Carr for the Texans in 2002, their first year in the NFL. Howell is on pace to take 96 this year.
• The dog is strong in Ron Rivera. He is 59-43-2 ATS as an underdog and 47-51-2 ATS as a favorite with Washington and Carolina.
• In the last four seasons, Rivera-coached games are 34-21-2 (61%) to the under.
  In that span, Rivera is the 4th-best coach to under: Joe Judge, John Harbaugh, Sean McVay, Ron Rivera
• Rivera is off a win as an underdog last week against the Broncos. Public would assume there is a step back the following week, but Rivera is 12-4-1 ATS in this spot since 2018 – the best ATS in this spot in that span. Rivera is 25-10-1 ATS in this spot for his career, most profitable coach in the NFL.
• Rivera is 3-7 ATS vs. Giants in his coaching career, his least profitable opponent ATS.
  He is 1-7 ATS vs. Giants as a favorite
  He is 2-4 ATS vs. Giants with Washington

---

---

Giants

• A very different year for the Giants under Brian Daboll.
  They went 7-0 ATS after a SU loss last season. This year, they are 1-3 ATS after covering a big number vs. Bills last week.
• Daboll led the Giants to an impressive 11-3 ATS record as an underdog in Year 1, going 7-6 straight-up (SU) in those spots.
  2023 hasn’t been as kind. Giants are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS ATS as an underdog this season.
• Giants have historically covered against Washington. Last 20 years they are 24-15-1 ATS, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings – Daboll is 2-0 ATS for New York.
• Taylor is 19-12-2 ATS as an underdog in his career and overall, he is 31-21-3 ATS in his career. In the last 20 years, Taylor is the 15th-most profitable QB ATS of 277 QBs.
• If the Giants trail at the half, they may be worth a bet. When Tyrod Taylor trails at the half, his teams are 16-8 against the second half spread. Since Taylor entered the league in 2015, he's the 6th-most profitable QB against second half spread when trailing at the half.
• Teams listed as 14+ pt dogs in their previous game are 39-23 1H ATS in their next game since 2015.

---

---

Cardinals at Seahawks | Sunday, Oct. 22

4:05pm ET | FOX

SEA -7.5 | 44.5

Cardinals

• Josh Dobbs, Cardinals led offense has fallen off a cliff after a good start.
  1st 3 games: 11th offensive EPA/play, 15th off. success rate, Dobbs 17th EPA/play & 6th in completion pct (11th expected comp. pct)
  Last 3 games: 25th offensive EPA/play, 26th off. success rate, Dobbs 25th in EPA/play & 27th in completion pct (24th in expected comp. pct)
• Cardinals haven’t been a public side yet this season. Arizona and Carolina are the two teams this season without a game as the public side.
• Historically, this would be the time to take Arizona. Teams to win 4 games or less the previous season and are on a 3+ game ATS losing streak are 65-51-4 ATS last 20 years.
• Arizona’s biggest issue? They can’t get pressure on defense. Their pressure pct of 15.7% is the lowest in the NFL.
  ARI is 30th in EPA/play on defense and 32nd, last in NFL in opponent success rate – the only team above 50% in opp. success rate
• Cardinals have struggled vs. NFC West recently. They are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in the spot. Rams have won one road game SU in the last calendar year against the Rams (1-8 SU).
• Even after three straight losses SU and ATS are the Cardinals due for more regression?
  Teams who won 4 games or fewer the previous season, are .500 ATS or better on the year, but are sitting on a multiple-game losing streak are 73-107-4 ATS (40.6%) last 20 years, including 36-56-2 ATS last decade.
• Josh Dobbs continues to start as a backup QB for the Cardinals with Kyler Murray out.
  Arizona is 15-21 SU, 20-15-1 ATS with a backup QB over the last decade – but they are 1-10 SU and 5-6 ATS in their last 11 in this spot.
  Recent Arizona backups: Dobbs, David Blough, Trace McSorley, Colt McCoy

---

---

Seahawks

• In 57 starts, Geno Smith has never closed as a favorite of 7 points or higher. He’s closed -6.5 twice in his career.
• Geno has covered one game in his career as over a 4 point favorite – in Week 3 against the Panthers (1-4 ATS career).
• Geno Smith is 20-15-2 ATS as a dog, but only 9-11 ATS as a favorite
  As a favorite of over a FG, Geno is 3-6 ATS in his career.
• Geno has performed well off a loss. He’s 19-13 ATS. After a SU win, he’s only 8-11-2 ATS.
• Pete Carroll teams usually start slow before they get going…
  Carroll in Weeks 1 & 2: 11-16-1 ATS
  Carroll in Week 3 on: 109-90-7 ATS
• Carroll has lost five consecutive games against the spread vs. NFC West, but he’s covered/won 3 straight vs. Cardinals.
  Since 2019, Carroll is 10-17 ATS vs. NFC West, 3rd-worst coach vs. his own division in that span (Stefanski, Nagy, Carroll).
• The offensive bounce back hasn’t boded well for Pete Carroll and the Seahawks. They are just 8-13-2 ATS after scoring 13 points or less in their previous game since 2014 – making Carroll the 2nd-least profitable coach ATS in that spot ahead of just Hue Jackson.

---

---

Steelers at Rams | Sunday, Oct. 22

4:05pm ET | FOX

LAR -3 | 44

Steelers

• Steelers come into this game off of a bye week and as an underdog. Here are a few notes from Tomlin’s era.
  Dog: 46-45 SU, 56-31-4 ATS
  Off a bye (12+ days rest): 15-6 SU, 10-11 ATS
  As dog off of a bye: 1-2 SU/ATS (won in 2021. Hadn’t happened prior since 2015).
  Including Week 1s, Tomlin is 25-12-1 SU on extended prep (12+ days).
• Steelers are 56-31-4 ATS as an underdog under Tomlin, making a $100 bettor $2,271, making him the most profitable coach as a dog in the last 20 years.
  Steelers haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog since 2016 and it's only happened twice under Tomlin.
  PIT is 3-1 SU, ATS as an underdog in 2023.
• Tomlin is 45-20-2 ATS as an underdog from Week 5 forward, including 37-30 SU on the moneyline.
• Can the bye help fix the offense? Well it has before.
  This is the 4th game the Steelers will play off a bye under Tomlin where their offense is avg 20 PPG or less. They are 3-0 SU/ATS coming off bye in that spot.
• Off extended rest during the regular season, Kenny Pickett is 4-0 SU/ATS in his pro career, covering the spread by 7.3 PPG.
  Pickett is 1 of 3 QBs 4-0 ATS or better on extended rest over the last 20 years with Kellen Clemens and Seneca Wallace.
• Mike Tomlin road unders. They are 79-59-1 (57.2%) as coach of the Steelers, best of any coach last 20 years. It is 54-25-1 (68.4%) last decade.

---

---

Rams

• Cooper Kupp has been back now for two games for the Ram and it hasn’t impact Puka Nacua too much.
  Kupp has 21 targets and Puka has 18 targets in those two games. Kupp has 3 red zone targets, Puka 2. Has been balanced.
  Nacua has 50 receptions, 598 rec yds on 70 targets. All three are records for a player in their first six games.
• Matthew Stafford is 3-11-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season – worst mark in the NFL. Last 5 years, he is 20-38-2 2H ATS, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Baker Mayfield.
  Stafford covered the 2H spread vs. Cardinals last week. He hasn’t covered the 2H spread in consecutive starts since December 2021.
• Sean McVay’s teams tend to perform better early in the season vs. late.
  Sept/Oct: 36-15 SU
  Nov. on: 34-29 SU
• McVay is 25-16-1 ATS vs. NFC West & 34-35-2 ATS vs. all other visions
• Stafford hasn’t finished above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 – he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, worst season since 2013.
  Rams, Stafford are 4-1-1 ATS this season.
• Stafford can’t beat good teams. He’s 31-64 SU and 36-57-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU – least profitable QB SU and ATS in this spot last 20 years.
  He is 8-7 SU and 6-9 ATS with Rams in this spot.
  When Stafford faces a “good” team at home, he’s 19-32 ATS, including 8-16 ATS since 2016 and 3-6 ATS with the Rams.
  When Stafford faces a team .500 SU or worse he is 57-37 SU and 47-43-4 ATS.
• This line opened Rams +2 and now lists them as the favorite.
  McVay is 1 of a few coaches who usually win games when the line moves towards them (ex. -5 to -7).
  McVay is 43-17 SU and 33-24-3 ATS when the line moves towards his teams, including 20-6 SU at home.

---

---

Chargers at Chiefs | Sunday, Oct. 22

4:25pm ET | CBS

KC -5.5 | 47.5

Chargers

• 14 teams had win total of 9.5+, only one has 2 wins or less – Chargers.
• This will be Herbert’s 7th career game vs. Chiefs and his 6th vs. Mahomes.
  Vs. KC: 2-4 SU, 5-1 ATS
  Vs. Mahomes: 1-4 SU, 4-1 ATS
  Herbert final margins in games vs. Mahomes: -3, -3, -6, +6, -3
• Herbert is 5-1 ATS vs. Chiefs and 24-24-1 ATS vs. all other teams
• Herbert is 7-0 ATS as a dog of 5 or more career. 10-1 ATS dog of over a FG.
• The Chargers have played 23 games since the start of last season, and 18 of them have finished within seven points.
  19 of the Chargers last 24 games have been decided by 7 points or less dating back to the Week 18, 2021 Raiders loss. Chargers last 8 losses were by: 3, 3, 2, 1, 3, 7, 3, 6
• Justin Herbert has been one of the best QBs in the league this year.
  150+ pass attempts, 2 INT or fewer: Stroud, Herbert, Purdy
  Herbert is t-10 in: Comp pct, TD%, Y/A, Pass Rtg, QBR, EPA/play, success rate
• Herbert’s W/L record has been a product of his defense in his career.
  When his defense allows 27 points or more, LAC is 6-23 SU, 9-20 ATS.
  When his defense allows fewer than 27 points, LAC is 21-5 SU, 20-5-1 ATS
• Herbert is 15-11 ATS on the road, and only 13-14-1 ATS at home in his career.
  Chargers have finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons.
  Chargers have finished above .500 ATS once in the last ten years.
• Herbert by time zone:
  EST/CST: 12-6 ATS
  MST/PST: 16-19-1 ATS
• Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite
  Underdog: 12-7 ATS, 17-2 in 6-pt teasers
  Favorite: 16-18-1 ATS, 25-8 in 6-pt teasers
• Herbert is 32-23 1H ATS, he’s 15-8 1H ATS since start of last season – 3rd-best mark in the NFL.
• Herbert is 16-34-5 against the second half spread in his career.
  Since 2005, he’s 245th of 250 QBs in 2H ATS profitability
  Can’t hold a lead: he’s 7-24-2 2H ATS when leading at HT (-$1,755, worst in NFL since he was drafted)

Herbert 2H ATS Career
2023: 1-3-1 ATS
2022: 6-10-2 ATS
2021: 5-12 ATS
2020: 4-9-2 ATS

---

---

Chiefs

• Mahomes has had 15 passes dropped so far this season, T-most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, 7th-most in the NFL.
• Mahomes starts by point spread
  Favorite: 90 (45-44-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
  Home: 24-26-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 27-18-1 ATS
  1p ET: 13-16-1 ATS | After 1p slate: 38-28-1 ATS
  -10 or higher: 25 (11-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 75 (42-32-1 ATS)
  -3 or less/or dog: 26 (19-6-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 74 (34-39-1 ATS)
• Mahomes vs. AFC West: 28-3 SU, 16-14-1 ATS
  As a favorite of 7 or more vs. AFC West: 19-1 SU, 9-10-1 ATS
• Mahomes is just 8-12 ATS in his last 20 games after a SU win dating back to 2022, the 2nd-least profitable QB ATS in the NFL ahead of only Kirk Cousins.
• Mahomes is 30-22-1 to the under in his home starts. 10-3 to the under at home over the last two seasons, the most profitable home QB to under.
• Mahomes and Andy Reid are off extended rest for this game vs. Chargers.
  Mahomes is 23-5 SU, 14-13-1 ATS on extended rest (8+ days), including 9-0 SU, 4-5 ATS vs. AFC West on extended rest.
  Mahomes has played at home fourteen times on extended rest, he’s 13-1 SU, 7-7 ATS. His only loss coming to Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game in 2019. Mahomes has won 12 consecutive games SU in this spot.
• Reid last 20 years on 8+ days rest: 57-25 SU, 46-35-1 ATS. When rest comes early, he does great.
  Sept-Oct: 21-8 ATS
  Nov on: 25-27-1 ATS
• On extended rest (8+ days), Reid & Chiefs are 32-12 SU, including 20-3 SU since 2019. QBs to beat them since 2019: Brady, Matt Ryan, Rodgers.

---

---

Packers at Broncos | Sunday, Oct. 22

4:25pm ET | CBS

GB -1 | 45

Packers

• LaFleur is 45-31 ATS in his career as Packers coach. Since his first season with GB in 2019, he’s the 3rd-most profitable coach ATS in the NFL – best? Dan Campbell at 28-12 ATS and Kyle Shanahan at 47-33-1 ATS.
  Overall, LaFleur is the 8th-most profitable coach ATS over the last 20 years ATS.
• The Packers went 5-6 SU as favorites under LaFleur last season. Week 7 would be their first game as a favorite this year if they close as such.
  Between 2019-21, Packers were 33-9 SU as a favorite under LaFleur.
  Packers haven’t been underdogs in their first five games since 1980 prior to this season (GB were underdogs in their first 7 games).
• LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 16-7 ATS as a ‘dog — 12-5 with Rodgers and 4-2 with Jordan Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 29-24 ATS.
• Packers are coming off a bye week to face the Broncos in Denver.
  Under LaFleur, Packers have played two road games on a bye – facing the 49ers in 2019 and the Bucs in 2020. GB were outscored 75-18 (0-2 SU/ATS).

---

---

Broncos

• Here is where the Broncos defense lies through six games…
  Opp. completion pct: 76.4% = highest through six games in Super Bowl era.
  Allowing 5.6 yards per rush – T-2nd most in SB era
  Allowing 6.7 yards per play – most in NFL
  53.1% of opp. offensive drives ending in any score – highest in NFL
  Allowing 2.97 points per offensive drive – highest in NFL
• Broncos are allowing 33.3 PPG this season, most in the NFL.
  Broncos are first team since 2020 Cowboys to allow 33+ PPG entering their 7th game or later. There have been 19 games played in the last 20 years with this bad a defense in 7th game or later, they are 12-7 ATS.
  Bad teams, with bad defenses don’t win often. Teams with a 25% win pct or less and a defense allowing 30 PPG or more, are 162-246-3 SU (39.7%) last 20 years.
• Wilson is 11-24 SU over the last three seasons, he was 107-52-1 SU in his first 9 seasons in the NFL.
  Wilson is 2-12 SU in his last 14 starts and 3-15 SU in his last 18 starts for the Broncos.
• Wilson with Seahawks vs. Broncos
  DEN: 5-16 SU, 6-14-1 ATS
  SU mark is worst in NFL, ATS is fourth-worst
  SEA: 113-60-1 SU, 90-77-7 ATS
• Wilson’s 5-16 SU mark has lost bettors $1,276 with Broncos, making him the least profitable QB on ML for Broncos last 20 years.
• Russ has recently struggled with Packers. He’s 1-5 SU in last six starts, all with Seahawks.
• Most profitable coaches ATS last 20 yrs: 1. Belichick, 2. McCarthy, 3. Mike Zimmer, 4. Payton
  Payton fell behind Zimmer after the loss to the Jets earlier this year.
  Payton has gone 7 straight years w/ his team above .500 ATS (2015-21)
  In 16 seasons, his teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total

Broncos First Six Games – Last Two Seasons

---

---

Dolphins at Eagles | Sunday, Oct. 22

8:20pm ET | NBC

PHI -3 | 51.5

Dolphins

• In a team’s 7th game or later this is just the 3rd night game last decade between team avg 35+ PPG vs. team allowing under 21 PPG. Defense won both previous matchups.
  2023 MIA at PHI
  2018 LAC at KC
  2018 NO at DAL
• In a team’s 7th game or later this is just the 3rd night game last decade between teams with 80%+ win pct, both avg 25+ PPG.
  2023 MIA at PHI
  2019 GB at SF
  2018 KC at LAR
• The Dolphins have faced the Bills, Giants, Patriots, Chargers, Broncos and Panthers and are 5-1 SU/ATS.
  Those opponents are a combined 9-25 SU this season.

Most Points Through 6 Games — Super Bowl Era
265 — 2013 Broncos, Peyton Manning
262 — 2000 Rams, Kurt Warner
238 — 2009 Saints, Drew Brees
230 — 2007 Patriots, Tom Brady
223 – 2023, Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa

​​Most points per game in NFL history
38.8: 1950 Rams
37.9: 2013 Broncos
37.2: 2023 Dolphins
36.8: 2007 Patriots
36.3: 1961 Oilers
36.0: 1941 Bears
==Previous five teams 36 PPG or higher all made championship game

• The Dolphins are still averaging 37.2 PPG this season, best in the NFL, entering Week 7.
  They would become the 5th team in game 7 or later to avg 35+ PPG and be listed as an underdog. Only other team in the last decade were the Chiefs in 2018 vs. Rams. The other four teams went 1-3 SU, 1-2-1 ATS.
• Dolphins currently at 8 yards per play. No one in the last 20 years has averaged more than 6.7 yards per play for a season.
  Dolphins offense is so far ahead of the rest of the NFL that there's a bigger difference in yards per play between the Dolphins and the No. 2 team than there is between the No. 2 team and the No. 32 team.
  8.0 yds/play through six games is 2nd-best in Super Bowl era behind the “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams in 2000 (8.24).
  Usually teams with early year high power offenses come back to reality. Teams who avg 6+ YPP in game 7 or later are 8-24-1 ATS (25%) since 2020.
• This will be Tua’s 8th start at night. He’s 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS (3-3 ATS on road, 0-1 ATS at home).
  Tua’s lost both his night starts as an underdog, both on the road (BUF, CIN).
• Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 15-5 ATS at home and 9-10-1 ATS away from home in his career.
  Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015
  Miami is 36-20-3 ATS since 2016 at home – best home team ATS in that span
• Tua by time zone: 21-8-1 ATS in EST | 3-6 ATS all other time zones
• Dolphins are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games as a road dog dating back to last season and Tua has lost 6 of his last 8 starts as a road underdog.
• Tua has started 17 road games after Week 1. Here is how the Dolphins have performed based on the opponents sack pct (The opponents percentage of plays that end as a sack while on defense). The Eagles are at 5% currently.
  Over 3%: 3-7 SU
  3% or less: 5-2 SU

Most Receiving Yards First 6 Games All-Time
819 – Don Hutson, 1942 (GB)
814 – Tyreek Hill, 2023 (MIA)

---

---

Eagles

• Turnovers have been an issue the last two games in Philly, as they’ve lost the turnover battle in both. Eagles are 2-0 SU/ATS under Hurts on a 2-game TO battle losing streak.
  Overall, teams who are above .500 SU have turned a 4.4% ROI last 20 years the game after consecutive turnover battle losses.
• Impact of Lane Johnson. Without him: 13-22 SU With him: 84-48-1 SU
• Hurts is 18-6-1 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, 2nd-best mark of any QB in the NFL (behind Jared Goff).
• Eagles are 11-2 1H ML in their last 13 games. Hurts is 23-14-3 1H ML in his career.
  Since start of last season, Eagles are 18-4-1 1H ML – most 1H ML wins in NFL.
• Jalen Hurts has won each of last five regular-season starts in which Eagles trailed by 10+ points.
• Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
  Home: 14-6-1 ATS (4th of 91 QBs since 2020)
  Road/Neutral: 9-14 ATS (89th of 91 QBs since 2020)
  This season though, Hurts is 3-1 SU/ATS on the road after the Jets loss.
• Hurts has been money as a favorite. His teams are 26-6 SU as a favorite w/ Hurts as the starter, including 26-4 SU when the Eagles are favored by 3 points or more.
  Hurts is 24-3 SU in his last 27 starts as a favorite.
• At home as a favorite, Hurts is 14-1 SU. His only loss was to Taylor Heinicke.
  Hurts is 1-5 SU as a home dog in his career.
• Hurts doesn’t love facing good offenses. Eagles are 7-10 SU vs. team scoring 24 PPG or more on the year and 20-4 SU under that mark.
• Hurts is 3-7 SU with a pressure rate of 40% or higher versus 25-5 SU without, per Next Gen Stats
• Hurts is just 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS after a SU loss, including just 2-2 SU at home.
• Hurts in night games: 8-5 SU, 8-4-1 ATS
  Home in night games: 6-3 SU, 7-1-1 ATS (1-3 ATS away from home)
  Last 20 yrs, Hurts is 7th-most profitable ATS at home in night games.
  Rodgers, Russ, Peyton, Rivers, Derek Carr, Brees, Hurts
  Since his 1st start in 2020, Hurts’ 7-1-1 ATS mark in this spot is best in the NFL

---

---

49ers at Vikings | Sunday, Oct. 23

8:15pm ET | ESPN

SF -7 | 44

49ers

• 49ers suffered their first regular season loss since the middle of last season last week against the Browns.
  Dating back to last season, 49ers are 7-1 SU/ATS in their last 8 games off a loss.
  When Shanahan is a favorite off a loss, he’s only 9-7 SU.
• Purdy in October or later at Iowa State and with 49ers: 25-12 SU at Iowa St and 9-2 SU with the 49ers (34-14 SU)
• Purdy is 8-0 ATS at home, just 2-4 ATS on road. Purdy is 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS career – 12-1 SU in games he finished.
  Purdy’s next game after an ATS loss:
  1/8/23 vs. ARI: W, 38-13 (-14.5)
  9/10/23 at PIT: W, 30-7 (-1.5) – Opener
  9/21/23 vs. NYG: W, 30-12 (-10.5)
• 49ers had scored 30+ points in 8 straight regular season games entering last week, the longest such streak for an NFC team since the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams in 1999-2000 (14). Then they scored 17 in Cleveland.
  Kyle Shanahan is 18-12 ATS game after scoring 17 points or less, including 7-1 ATS in his last 8.
• In games Christian McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 17-2 SU, 14-5 ATS.
  McCaffrey has a TD in 15 consecutive games, a 49er record. McCaffrey ties John Riggins & O.J. Simpson for the 2nd-longest touchdown streak in NFL history. Longest? Lenny Moore (17 games).
  McCaffrey odds to score TD this season: -105, -160, -240, -250, -195, -165
• Brock Purdy has made four starts at night for the 49ers. He is 4-0 SU/ATS in those games.
  Purdy currently has the most wins without a SU loss at night in the last 20 years.
  QBs 3-0 ATS or better at night last 20 years: Pickett 6-0 ATS, Purdy 4-0 ATS, Leinart 3-0 ATS
• Shanahan in night games with 49ers
  10-11 ATS as favorite | 7-2 ATS as underdog
  49ers have won & covered 5 straight at night – they’ve won 7 consecutive games SU at night.
• How do road favorites perform at night?
  -7 or more: 34-43 ATS last 20 years
  Road favorites at night last decade: 90-104-7 ATS
  Shanahan has been a road favorite at night five times. All 5 games were decided by one score.
  Road favorites in night games coming off a loss: 58-39-3 ATS

---

---

Vikings

• The Vikings have 0 rushing TD entering Week 7. They are the first team with 0 rush TD through six games since 2017 Dolphins.
• In Cousins career, he has started 40 games in primetime – which are high profile games, night, playoffs, overseas, Saturday, etc – Kirk is 16-23-1 SU, 15-25 ATS.
  At night, he is 11-19 SU, 12-18 ATS.
  4-3 SU in primetime since start of last season. ATS has been issue: 1-6 ATS.
  He’s been underdog in primetime 20 times. His teams are 4-15-1 SU, 7-13 ATS (3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS as a dog at night).
• Cousins has had his issues on Monday Night Football.
  This year, Minnesota is on MNF against the 49ers (Oct. 23) and against the Bears (Nov. 27).
  In his career, Cousins is 2-10 straight up and against the spread on Monday Night Football. His 2-10 SU mark is worst for any QB on MNF.
  Kirk’s teams are avg 16.5 PPG on MNF and allowing 25 PPG.
• Can Cousins pull the upset? As an underdog of 4 points or more…
  He’s 7-24 SU – including 1-14 SU in the afternoon slate or a night game (0-6 SU at night).
• Cousins: Home dog career: 9-12 SU, 11-10 ATS (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS w/ MIN)
  He’s 1-3 SU/ATS as home dog in primetime
• An uphill climb for Minnesota. Cousins is 10-24-1 SU vs. teams with a 75%+ win pct, including 4-13-1 SU as a Viking.
• Lots has been made of the Broncos defense. Well Minnesota’s has been almost as bad.
  Opp. completion pct: 75.2% = 3rd-highest through six games in Super Bowl era.
  MIN is blitzing a ton. 135 plays, 40 more than 2nd. Highest blitz per dropback in NFL – they are only 15th in pressure rate.
  103 passer rating, 3rd-highest in NFL.
  Opponents drive avg is 3:10, highest in NFL.
• Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last year during the regular season. Minnesota has now played seven straight one-score games dating back to last season and are 2-4 SU this year.

Worst point differential among 13+ win teams since the merger (incl. postseason)
2022 Vikings -10 2023: 8.5 win total (2-4 SU, ATS)
1979 Oilers +26 1980: 11-6 SU (WC), 6-9-2 ATS
1990 Raiders +31 1991: 9-8 SU (WC), 8-9 ATS (U10 win total)
1993 Chiefs +31 1994: 9-8 SU (WC), 9-8 ATS (U9.5 win total)

• Cousins is 70-74-2 ATS in his career – 30-28 ATS w/ WAS, 41-46-2 ATS w/ MIN
  Since 2020 – home: 10-19 ATS | road: 14-11-1 ATS
  Cousins’ 10-19 ATS home mark since 2020 is worst in the NFL.
  Cousins is 0-3 ATS at home this season. QBs 0-3 ATS or worse at home this year: Howell, Russ, Mac, Kirk
• Cousins, Vikings are 3-9 ATS last 12 games. Two covers against the Bears and one against the Panthers.
• Over the last 20 years, the over is 83-63-1 (56.8%) in Kirk Cousins starts, making him the 2nd-most profitable QB to the over in that span. He’s 34-21-1 to the over since 2020, the most profitable QB to the over in that span.
  This season, Vikings are actually 5-1 to the under.
• In his NFL career, Kirk Cousins is 39-25 ATS after a SU loss, the 5th-most profitable QB in that spot over the last 20 years.
  When he’s off a SU win, he’s 28-42-2 ATS, which is 233rd of 233 QBs over the last 20 years – worst in the NFL.
• How Cousins performs based on time of day:
  1p ET or earlier: 50-39-2 ATS
  4p ET or later: 21-35 ATS – 3rd-worst mark last 20 years ahead of Favre and Cutler.

---

---

NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️

Biggest NFL Week 7 Public Sides
49ers (-7) at MIN					82% of bets
BIlls (-7.5) at NE					79% of bets

Biggest NFL Week 7 Line Moves
Rams (+2 to -3) vs. PIT
Bills (-3.5 to -7.5) at NE

NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️

Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Week 7
Lions at Ravens (-3)					130k bets
Dolphins at Eagles (-3)					90k bets

Biggest NFL Week 7 Public Totals
GB-DEN (O/U: 45)					81% of bets to under
CLE-IND (O/U: 41)					80% of bets to under

System: Early season turnovers are contagious. It has been profitable to fade teams after losing the turnover battle early in the year.

Matches: PHI, IND, ATL

$$$: Early Season TO are contagious

the team's 1 Game Turnover Differential streak is between -100 and -3

the game was played in September or October

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

$-4,400

WON

179-213-11

RECORD

46%

WIN%

View System

System: It has been profitable to fade teams who are covering at a very high rate early in the season.

Matches: BAL, PHI

$$$: Fade Covering Teams Early Season

the team's game number is between 1 and 8

the team's 6 Games ATS Win % is between 80% and 100%

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

$-2,748

WON

63-88-2

RECORD

42%

WIN%

View System

System: Seattle travels back home from a road game in Cincinnati, which might give an advantage to Arizona this week.

Matches: ARI

$$$: Fade road EST to home MST/PST

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 or 2017-18 or 2016-17 or 2015-16 season

the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season

the team is the Home team

the team's previous game was played in the Eastern timezone

the game is played in the Mountain or Pacific timezone

the previous game the team was the Visitor team

$1,797

WON

73-51-0

RECORD

59%

WIN%

View System

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

• No movement. 9 of Top 10 didn't score in W6. Carolina Defense sneaks in with a +900 hit.
• Top 3 Biggest Hits Of Week 6: Andrei Iosivas +1300, Panthers D +900, Jordan Mason +850.
• TD Scorers with minus odds after W6: 45-39 (53.5%)

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

• DEN Jaleel McLaughlin still leads the way +107U through 6 weeks.
• Jakobi Meyers sneakily at +32.5U now with another +900 hit.
• Christian McCaffrey (+7.7U), Meyers and McLaughlin are only 3 players with 3 First TD wins in 2023.

League Trends ⤵️

Luck Rules

Week 7 Luck Rankings

Let's talk some "Luck Rankings" trends from our Predictive Analytics team.

Top 4 by luck gaps this week:
LA unlucky vs PIT (42.3%)
CLE unlucky vs IND (33.1%)
ATL unlucky vs TB (29.4%)
CHI unlucky vs LV (28.9%)

Top 4 teams by luck gap % each week are 13-6-1 ATS this season.

Top 2 luck gap games every week, if the unlucky team is also on the road they are 66-31-3 ATS (100 total games excactly) — Browns fits that trend this week.

Dogs in Low Places

Follow Along

Bet dogs with low totals. Underdogs with O/U of below 42 are 73-41-2 ATS (64%) in the first 8 weeks since 2018. These dogs are 17-8-1 ATS this season.

Those same dogs with low totals are 154-102-5 ATS (60.2%) at any point in the season since 2018

Week 7: JAC, NYG, ATL, CHI, NE, IND

Leaving Las Vegas

Feeling It

Patriots are coming off a road game in Vegas and now return home to face the Bills.

Teams after facing the Raiders in Vegas, without a bye week, are 9-17 ATS in their next game.

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Biggest Super Bowl Riser

New York Jets: 66-1 (NYJ was 100-1 to win SB last week)

Biggest Super Bowl Faller

New Orleans Saints: 66-1 (TEN was 50-1 to win SB last week)

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

NFL Win Total Grid & Progress

Trending Up 📈
Lions					5-1	Win Total: 9.5
Dolphins					5-1	Win Total: 9.5
49ers					5-1	Win Total: 10.5
Texans					3-3	Win Total: 6.5
Colts					3-3	Win Total: 6.5
Rams					3-3	Win Total: 6.5
Raiders					3-3	Win Total: 6.5
Buccaneers					3-2	Win Total: 6.5
Commanders					3-3	Win Total: 6.5
Chiefs					5-1	Win Total: 11.5
Eagles					5-1	Win Total: 11.5
Jaguars					4-2	Win Total: 9.5
Ravens					4-2	Win Total: 10.5
Bills					4-2	Win Total: 10.5
Falcons					3-3	Win Total: 8.5
Steelers					3-2	Win Total: 8.5

Trending Down 📉
Seahawks					3-2	Win Total: 8.5
Browns					3-2	Win Total: 9.5
Cowboys					3-2	Win Total: 9.5
Saints					3-3	Win Total: 9.5
Jets					3-3	Win Total: 9.5
Packers					2-3	Win Total: 7.5
Titans					2-4	Win Total: 7.5
Bengals					3-3	Win Total: 11.5
Vikings					2-4	Win Total: 8.5
Cardinals					1-5	Win Total: 4.5
Chargers					2-3	Win Total: 9.5
Bears					1-5	Win Total: 7.5
Patriots					1-5	Win Total: 7.5
Giants					1-5	Win Total: 7.5
Broncos					1-5	Win Total: 8.5
Panthers					0-6	Win Total: 7.5

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Odds	3rd In Odds
NFL MVP	Patrick Mahomes (+350)	Tua Tagovailoa (+350)	Josh Allen (+700)
Offensive POY	Tyreek Hill (+145)	Christian McCaffrey (+225)	Ja'Marr Chase (+1800)
Defensive POY	Micah Parsons (+200)	T.J. Watt (+300)	Myles Garrett (+325)
Offensive ROY	CJ Stroud (-145)	Puka Nacua (+500)	Bijan Robinson (+550)
Defensive ROY	Jalen Carter (-145)	Devon Witherspoon (+300)	Will Anderson (+1000)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (-190)	Tua Tagovailoa (+300)	Cooper Kupp (+1600)
Coach Of The Year	Dan Campbell (+250)	Mike McDaniel (+275)	DeMeco Ryans (+1000)
Updated as of October 11th

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• Jared Goff is making a run for MVP at the moment. He was 40-1 entering Week 4 and is now down to 18-1, 7th in odds.
• Offensive Player of the Year is a two-horse race: Tyreek and CMC. DPOY is a three-horse race: Parsons, Watt and Garrett.
• Cooper Kupp was 80-1 to win Comeback Player of the Year entering Week 2. After being OTB till now, he re-opens at 16-1, 3rd in the odds.

Trivia Instructions

For this weeks trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: Over the last 20 years, the Raiders are the least profitable team against the spread in the NFL at 143-181-6 ATS. The question is, who is their most profitable QB against the spread in that span?

Click here to return to the table of contents.

The ultimate NFL betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Our model's biggest weekly edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

SAVE 55% NOW!