NFL Week 9 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Injuries and backups seem to be the story, at least for quarterbacks heading into Week 9. Could have up to 10 backup QBs start this week and we'll go over tons of stats for each team and how they perform.

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 9 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Saturday, November. 4, 7 p.m. ET.

Under The Lights

Night Game Unders

The talk of the town. Primetime unders — night games — are 19-7 to the under this season and 158-102-3 to the under since 2019.

The 19-7 start for night game unders is the second-best since 2005 behind just 2019 (started 19-5).

Pickett Signs

Undefeated at Night

Kenny Pickett is 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS in night games with Steelers. Last 20 years, he’s the only QB 4-0 ATS or better at night.

Tua Time

Streaking

Tua Tagovailoa faces Super Bowl-winning head coach Andy Reid this week. Tua has won 11 consecutive games SU vs. Super Bowl-winning head coaches. He’s 12-1 SU in his career. His last loss vs SB winning HC? 2020 vs. Andy Reid.

Nobody Likes Me

Anti Public Side

Cardinals haven’t been a public side yet this season (closed with 51% of tickets or more on the spread). Arizona is the only team this season without a game as the public side.

Foreign Territory

Young Gun

Sam Howell has made nine career starts. QBs in their first 10 career starts, playing on the road in NE vs. Belichick are 5-31 SU.

SOS

Raiders Boat Sinks

Josh McDaniels is out. The Raiders team total under is 8-0 this season – the only team in the NFL without a team total over on the season.

Per our Action Labs database, 35 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 16-19 straight up (SU) and 19-16 against the spread (ATS).

Own My Own

Dak Dominates

Dak Prescott has had success playing against the NFC East. He’s 28-7 SU, 25-10 ATS.

Last 20 years, he’s 3rd-most profitable QB ATS vs. his own division.

1. Rodgers, 2. Big Ben, 3. Dak

Streak Like No Other

A True Wagon

Bills have lost four straight games against the spread entering this week.

Bills haven’t lost five straight ATS since 1976, when they lost 6 straight ATS. Bills have covered 14 straight games on a 4-game ATS losing streak since that losing streak in 1976-77.

New Yuck, New Yuck

Night Terrors

This will be the 33rd night game for the Jets and Giants since the 2018 season. They are a combined 4-28 SU, including 2-24 SU in their last 26 night games. Since 2018, Jets and Giants are 1-14 SU at home in night games.

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Titans at Steelers | Thursday, Nov. 2

8:20pm ET | Amazon

PIT -3.5 | 37

Titans

• Primetime unders are 19-7 this season, 158-102-3 since 2019.
• NFL first half unders are now 85-63-2 in night games since 2021, including 24-16-1 on TNF and 28-17 on MNF in that span.
• Thursday home teams are just 26-33 SU, 22-37 ATS since 2020, including 20-33 ATS in night Thursday games (worst of any day of week for home teams at night).
  Since 2020, Thursday home teams at night 20-33 ATS. All other days of the week, 79-68-3 ATS.
• Bet home teams on Thursday night? Since 2020, they are only 25-28 SU. They are 90-60 SU on all other nights.
• Will Levis becomes the seventh quarterback to face the Steelers in Pittsburgh in his first season in a night game. The previous six quarterbacks went 0-6 SU: Fields, Clausen, Flacco, John Beck, Derek Anderson, Eric Zeier. Quarterbacks playing in Pittsburgh in their first season are 8-37 SU since 1950, including 1-20 SU in the last 20 years. 2016 Dak Prescott is the only winner.
• Mike Vrabel has coached 15 games in his NFL career on short rest, his teams are 11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS, including 6-2 SU as a dog on short rest. With a win on TNF, Vrabel would be the second-most profitable coach SU on short rest last 20 years behind just Mike Nolan.
• Vrabel is 10-8 SU, 11-8 ATS in night games – 10-6 ATS as a dog at night.
• In games with a spread of 3 or less, Vrabel is 21-16 SU, 19-16-2 ATS, including 4-1 ATS in that spot this season.
• Vrabel is off a win as an underdog last week against the Falcons. Public would assume there is a step back the following week, but Vrabel is 14-10 ATS in this spot, covering by 5 PPG. After a win as a dog SU, Vrabel is 9-4 ATS when listed as a dog again.
• Titans and Giants play on the road this week, with a 3-game road trip coming up. Teams that play at least three straight road games, are 48-73 SU, 67-50-4 ATS in the first game of that road trip when listed as an underdog in the Wild Card era.
• The Titans have now gone 26 straight games without scoring 30 points. The expansion Bucs of 1976 and '77 (generally regarded as the NFL worst team of all-time) went 26 games before scoring over 30 in their initial win near the end of the 1977 season for a frame of reference.
• Vrabel as an underdog: 25-24 SU, 29-19-1 ATS, including 25-13-1 ATS when the spread is +3 or higher.
  Minimum 20 games as an underdog, only Mike Vrabel, Matt LaFleur and Mike Tomlin are over .500 SU as an underdog in the Wild Card era.
  In 6 seasons with Titans, Vrabel has never finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog (4-2 ATS this season).
• Vrabel is 37-26 SU in Sept, Oct & Nov. in his career (16-15 SU in Dec. on).
• Titans go to a backup QB again this week in Will Levis after their starter Ryan Tannehill was sidelined. The Titans have historically done well with a backup QB, going 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games in the spot, including a respectable 9-9 SU dating back to the 2019 season.
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 162-104-6 ATS (61%) since 2018 and 25-10-2 ATS this season.
  Week 9 matches: Titans, Rams, Vikings, Buccaneers, Bears, Cardinals, Commanders, Giants, Jets
• Dogs on TNF who won as dogs SU the week before, just 12-24-1 ATS last 20 years.

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Steelers

• Kenny Pickett is 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS in night games with Steelers. Over the last 20 years, he’s the only QB 4-0 ATS or better at night.
  Pickett in College at Pitt in night games: 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS
• Trubisky is 31-26 SU, 27-27-3 ATS in his career. Trubisky has made five starts for Steelers – 2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS.  Trubisky is 3-10-2 ATS in his last 15 home starts for the Steelers and Bears — 0-2 SU at home in Pittsburgh. Trubisky has actually started 12 night games in his career – 5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS – he’s lost three straight night games SU and ATS.
• Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 34-22-3 ATS. Steelers under Tomlin without Big Ben or Pickett: 22-15-3 ATS
• Steelers are 30-44-1 1H ATS last five seasons under Tomlin, making him worst coach 1H ATS in that span.
• Steelers are going to a backup QB for the 26th time in the last decade this week.
  They are 14-10-1 SU/ATS in those games – If you remove the 14 games they had a backup start in 2019, they are 6-4-1 SU, 5-5-1 ATS with a backup last decade. Backup QBs: Trubisky, Rudolph, Devlin Hodges, Landry Jones, Michael Vick
  With a backup QB at home: 9-4-1 SU, 7-6-1 ATS last decade
• Since the NFL merger in 1970, the Steelers are 53-20 SU at home in night games, including 16-6 SU, 11-10-1 ATS since 2014.
  Steelers have won five straight night games SU overall
• Steelers play back-to-back home games this week and last. Under Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 27-17-2 ATS playing on a homestand (two or more consecutive home games) – second-best of any head coach in the last 20 years (Belichick).
• The Steelers have played 42 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense, the longest active streak in the NFL and longest streak since Rams in 2014-17 (46 games). They are sixth team last 20 years with a streak of this many games.
• When the Steelers close -3 or smaller, or as an underdog, they are 85-56-6 ATS under Tomlin, including 33-18-4 ATS at home.
• Tomlin is 17-11-1 SU at home on short rest vs. just 7-8 SU on the road on short rest.

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Dolphins vs. Chiefs | Sunday, Nov. 5

9:30am ET | NFL Network

KC -1.5 | 50

Dolphins

Let’s look at a few facts and trends from the 42 total international games:
+ This would be the third international game where both teams are averaging 24 PPG or more. Both other games had 60+ points scored combined.
2023, Dolphins-Chiefs
2019, Panthers-Buccaneers
2008, Saints-Chargers
+ Only once has an international game had two teams with 75%+ win pct: 2019 Packers vs. Giants at Tottenham. Giants, +9.5 beat Packers.
+ The under has a small edge at 22-20.
Wembley: 14-11 to under
Twickenham: 2-1 to under
Allianz: 1-0 to under
Azteca: 3-2 to over
Tottenham: 5-3 to over
+ Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 31-10-1 straight up and 27-15 against the spread.
Favorites at Tottenham: 3-5 ATS. All other international stadiums: 24-10 ATS.
+ The public has struggled a bit overseas. Teams with 51%+ of tickets in international games are just 20-21 ATS.
+ Favorites of over a FG or more overseas are 25-7-1 SU, 21-12 ATS.
+ This is Tagovailoa’s second international game: Lost to Jaguars as -2.5 in 2021 (Tottenham)
+ This is Mahomes’ second international game: Beat the Chargers as -5.5 in 2019 (Azteca)

• This game in Germany will be played at Allianz Arena. Winds are projected at 13-14 MPH around kickoff. Games with 10+ MPH winds outdoors are 15-4-1 to the under this season.
• Tua has played in eight night games in his career and one morning game – a total of nine “primetime” games. He is 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS in those games.
• Tua Tagovailoa faces Super Bowl-winning head coach Andy Reid this week.
  He has won 11 consecutive games SU vs. Super Bowl-winning head coaches. He’s 12-1 SU in his career.
  23: NE (twice), DEN | 22: PIT, BAL, NE | 21: NE X2, NO | 20: OAK, NE, KC (L), LAR
  His last loss vs Super Bowl winning head coach? 2020 vs. Andy Reid.
  Tua is 6-0 vs. Bill Belichick, the only QB to win his first six games vs. single SB-winning HC in NFL history
• Since 2021, Dolphins are 4-10 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 16-7 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
  The Dolphins haven't beaten a team with a winning record since they beat the Bills in Week 3 of last season (9/25/22) – Only two teams don't have a SU win over a team with a winning record in this span == Bears: 0-9 SU, Dolphins: 0-6 SU
• Dolphins offense is still highest in the NFL at 7.3 YPP. 2nd-highest through eight games all-time, ahead of just 2000 Rams (7.7).
  Usually teams with early year high powered offenses come back to reality. Teams that average 6+ YPP in November or later are 44-52-4 ATS last 20 years.
• The Dolphins are still averaging 33.9 PPG this season, best in the NFL, entering Week 9.
  They are the first team to average 33 PPG or more in their ninth game or later since 2020 Seahawks and 2019 Ravens.
  Those 33+ PPG teams this late in the season are 53-61-5 ATS over the last 20 years.
• Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 16-5 ATS at home and 9-11-1 ATS away from home in his career.
  Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015
  Miami is 37-20-3 ATS since 2016 at home – best home team ATS in that span
• Tua by time zone: 22-9-1 ATS in EST | 3-6 ATS all other time zones
• Tyreek Hill has 1,014 receiving yards through eight games – most for any player since 1961.
• Tua has only faced this good a “sack defense” four times in his career, and he is 2-2 SU/ATS, losing two in a row vs. Eagles and Bills this season.
  Here is how the Dolphins have performed based on the opponents sack percentage (The opponent's percentage of plays that end as a sack while on defense). The Chiefs are at 5.5% currently.
  5% or higher: 2-2 SU/ATS
  Less than 5%: 22-13 SU, 20-14-1 ATS

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Chiefs

• Chiefs and Dolphins are both beating their opponents this season by 7+ PPG and they face off in Week 9. When two teams meet winning by 7+ PPG on the year in their seventh game or later, the favorite is 53-78-2 ATS (40.5%) last 20 years – 12-21-1 ATS since 2018.

From NFL: Patrick Mahomes & Tua Tagovailoa will be the first matchup between the reigning Super Bowl MVP and the leader in pass yards and pass TD since Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in 2007. The Patriots and Colts were also the top two teams in the AFC entering that game (IND & NE were undefeated).

From NFL: There have been two matchups in the last 50 seasons between the current season’s leader in pass yards & pass TD and the previous season’s leader in both categories: • HOF Kurt Warner vs HOF Peyton Manning in 2001 (Warner won the game, NFL MVP, and made the Super Bowl) • Tua Tagovailoa vs Patrick Mahomes Week 9 in Germany

• Mahomes has played three neutral site games in his career, he is 3-0 SU/ATS, covering by 5.2 PPG – two Super Bowls and international game vs. Chargers.
  Chiefs have scored 24 pts or more in all three neutral games.
• Mahomes has played in 38 night games in his career and four Saturday games – a total of 42 “primetime” games. He is 32-10 SU, 24-17-1 ATS in those games.
• Mahomes has had 18 passes dropped so far this season, second-most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, seventh-most in the NFL.
• Mahomes starts by point spread
  Favorite: 92 (46-45-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
  Home: 25-26-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 27-19-1 ATS
  1p ET: 13-16-1 ATS | After 1p slate: 39-29-1 ATS
  -10 or higher: 25 (11-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 77 (43-33-1 ATS)
  -3 or less/or dog: 26 (19-6-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 76 (35-40-1 ATS)
• Road/neutral, Mahomes is 38-11 SU, 28-20-1 ATS in his career.
  He’s 28-7 SU as a road/neutral favorite of 3 pts or more.
  As a favorite of 3 pts or less or an underdog, he’s 18-8 ATS
  After losing in Denver last week, Mahomes is 9-1 SU in his next road/neutral game after a road/neutral loss.
  As a favorite of 3 pts or less or an underdog road/neutral, he’s 13-5 ATS
• Mahomes is 11-1 SU when playing on the road/neutral field after a SU loss in his previous game.
  After a loss in his career, Mahomes is 15-3 SU, 10-8 ATS
• In his career, Mahomes is 9-3 ATS for the Chiefs the game after scoring 20 pts or less.
• Not a great sign: The game after teams turn the ball over five times or more, they are 121-154-12 ATS (44%) last 20 years, including 20-34 ATS since 2016.

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Vikings at Falcons | Sunday, Nov. 5

1:00pm ET | FOX

ATL -3.5 | 37.5

Vikings

• Kirk Cousins is done for the year in Minnesota.
  He exits with the second-most pass yards, most completions, tied for most pass TDs, third-most pass yards after catch, second-most “on target” throws of any QB and fifth in completion percentage
• With Kirk out, Minnesota now goes to a back up QB.
  Since 2015, only two backup QBs have started for Minnesota: Sean Mannion and Case Keenum. They are 12-6 SU, 11-7 ATS in 18 games filling in for the Vikings. This will be the first time since 2021 Vikings need a backup QB.
• Jaren Hall gets the start for the Vikings – his first career start.
  QBs making their first career start are 38-70-1 SU in the last decade.
  Since 2021, QBs making first career start, playing on road, 3-15 SU.
• Under Kevin O’Connell, Vikings are 2-6 ATS as underdogs, but their two wins came SU and as dogs of 6 points or more.
  Overall, Vikings are failing to cover by 7.6 PPG as dogs under O’Connell.
• Vikings got their first rush TD of the year last week. With 1, they are tied with TB and DEN for fewest in NFL.
• Vikings defense is allowing a completion pct of 72.2% this season, 11th-highest through eight games in Wild Card era (worst in 2023 is DEN, who is fourth-worst in Wild Card era).
• The Vikings are 7-1 to the under this season. Tied for best under team in the NFL with the Giants. Six straight Vikings games have gone under the total.

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Falcons

• Falcons opened as an underdog and are now the favorites. Those such teams are 43-83 ATS since 2019 and 7-11 ATS this season.
  Week 9: ATL, IND, LAC
• Falcons are 18-29-1 ATS vs. non-AFC South divisions since 2019, worst mark in the NFL.
• Falcons have struggled ATS recently.
  They are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall dating back to last season.
  1-6 ATS last seven games.
• Falcons are 11-11 ATS after a SU loss under Arthur Smith. An average team. After a win, not so much.
  Falcons are 4-13 SU, 4-12-1 ATS after a SU win under Smith.
  His 4-12-1 ATS mark is 134th of 142 head coaches in the last 20 years.
• Arthur Smith is 10-10 SU, 6-14 ATS at home as a head coach (8-14 SU, 11-10-1 ATS road/neutral)
  Worst Falcons HC ATS at home last 20 years
  Worst home ATS win percentage, coaches in Wild Card era (min. 20 games)

1. Matt Rhule 5-15 ATS, 2. Dennis Allen: 8-20 ATS, 3. Arthur Smith: 6-14 ATS

• When Falcons return home off a road/neutral game, they are 3-10 ATS under Arthur Smith, including 1-5 ATS as a home favorite.
• Arthur Smith…
  Sept-Oct: 11-12 ATS
  Nov. on: 6-12-1 ATS
  Smith is 6-4 ATS in first four games of the season – his teams are 11-18-1 ATS in the fifth game forward.
• Falcons continue their journey have playing zero games this season with a positive rest differential vs. their opponent.
  Played on road before game in London (Wk 3, 4) – they lost at Lions.
  7 of last 11 games on the road – they are 1-1 SU in this stretch.
  3 of last 4 games are on the road.
• Falcons are 1-12-4 1H ML, 2-15 1H ATS in their last 17 games.
  Their 6-19 1H ATS last two seasons is tied with the Colts for the worst mark in the NFL
• Taylor Heinicke is 5-1-1 SU as a favorite and 7-12 SU as an underdog. Profitable on the ML in both spots.
• Heinicke is 6-10-1 SU vs. teams .500 SU or better on the season, losing those games by 6.1 PPG.

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Seahawks at Ravens | Sunday, Nov. 5

1:00pm ET | CBS

BAL -6 | 44.5

Seahawks

• Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success going 102-64-3 1H ATS since 2017.
  Week 9: CIN, SEA, CLE, LAC
• PST and MST teams have had success playing on the road in EST lately, they are 66-41-3 ATS since 2019 – over .500 ATS in all five seasons.
  Week 9: ARI, SEA, LAC
• Geno Smith is 20-15-2 ATS as a dog, but only 10-12 ATS as a favorite.
• Geno has performed well off a loss. He’s 20-13 ATS. After a SU win, he’s only 8-12-2 ATS.
• Pete Carroll teams usually start slow before they get going…
  Carroll in Weeks 1 & 2: 11-16-1 ATS
  Carroll in Week 3 on: 110-91-7 ATS
• Pete Carroll is 53-38-3 ATS as an underdog. Carroll has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog eight straight years.
  Carroll is also 31-24-1 ATS as a dog vs. team over .500 SU on the season.
• When Carroll is on the road vs. a team that is over .500 SU, they are 26-19-1 ATS, including 8-6-1 ATS in EST game.
• These good teams, who are dogs, have been bad lately.
  Teams with 70% win pct, who are underdogs, are 17-30-1 ATS since start of last season.
  Week 9: DAL, SEA, MIA

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Ravens

• Harbaugh is 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and 4 games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
• Harbaugh is 152-108-9 1H ATS with $100 bettor up $3,626, most of any coach in NFL since 2005.
  With Lamar Jackson & Joe Flacco, Harbaugh is 140-101-9 1H ATS.
• Over the past three seasons, Lamar Jackson is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog but 9-17 ATS as a favorite, including 3-14 ATS when favored by more than 3 points.
• Jackson is 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 pts or less or an underdog. In all other spots he is 19-29 ATS career.
• Lamar has faced the NFC in 18 games, he is 17-1 SU, 8-10 ATS. His one loss came vs. Giants last season.
  His .944 win pct is best by any QB against the opposing conference since the 1970 merger.
  Jackson vs. NFC: 17-1 SU, 8-10 ATS. He’s 33-18 SU, 28-23 ATS vs. AFC
• Jackson covers the 1H spread on the road/neutral, he’s 26-10-1 1H ATS and 18-17-1 1H ATS at home.
  Between 2021-23, he’s 16-15-1 1H ATS. From 2018-20, he was 28-12-1 1H ATS.
• Jackson is 24-9 SU and 12-21 ATS as a home favorite. Among 210 QBs over the last 20 years, he is ranked 204th ATS as a home favorite.
  He’s just 9-16 ATS playing a home game at 1 p.m. ET

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Cardinals at Browns | Sunday, Nov. 5

1:00pm ET | CBS

CLE -11.5 | 38.5

Cardinals

• The Cardinals offense under Josh Dobbs fell off a cliff after a good start and now his time in Arizona is done.
  First three games: 11th offensive EPA/play, 15th off. success rate, Dobbs 17th EPA/play & 6th in completion pct (11th expected comp. pct)
  Last five games: 29th offensive EPA/play, 23rd in off. success rate, Dobbs 24th of 26 in EPA/play & 26th of 26 in completion pct
• Clayton Tune is now in as the backup QB for the Cardinals making his first career start with Kyler Murray out.
  Arizona is 15-23 SU, 21-16-1 ATS with a backup QB over the last decade – but they are 1-12 SU and 6-7 ATS in their last 13 in this spot.
  Recent Arizona backups: Tune, Dobbs, David Blough, Trace McSorley, Colt McCoy
  Dobbs was 1-9 SU as a starter, and six of his 10 starts netted 16 points or less. Dobbs was 0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS in his career on the road
• Since Kyler Murray arrived in Arizona, he is 25-32-1 SU. All other QBs are 4-13 SU.
• The losing may continue. Teams that won six games or fewer in the previous season and are on a five-game losing streak or more are 66-157-1 SU (29.6%) in the last 20 years.
• Cardinals defense stinks.
  Pressure rate: 14.8% (30th)
  Opp. first downs: 186 (32nd)
  EPA/play on D: 31st
  Opp. success rate: 32nd
• Cardinals have dominated second quarters this season. They are 7-1 2Q ATS, best in the NFL.
• Have the Colts and Cardinals gotten lucky? Teams to win four games or less year prior, who have lost two or more straight games and are .500 ATS or better on the year, are 73-109-4 ATS last 20 years, including 7-17 ATS last three seasons.
• PST and MST teams have had success playing on the road in EST lately, they are 66-41-3 ATS since 2019 – over .500 ATS in all five seasons.
  Week 9: ARI, SEA, LAC
• Cardinals haven’t been a public side yet this season. Arizona is the only team this season without a game as the public side.
  Teams without public side through first eight games last decade: 2023 ARI, 2021 PHI, 2021 CHI, 2017 CHI, 2017 CLE, 2016 LAC, 2016 CLE, 2015 CHI, 2015 CLE, 2015 TB, 2015 SF, 2014 LV, 2014 LAR (BOLD also thru nine games).

Week 1: ARI +7 at WAS, 22% tickets (ARI covered)
Week 2: ARI +4.5 vs. NYG, 18% tickets (ARI covered)
Week 3: ARI +12.5 vs. DAL, 18% tickets (ARI covered)
Week 4: ARI +15 at SF, 36% tickets (ARI didn’t cover)
Week 5: ARI +3 vs. CIN, 42% tickets (ARI didn’t cover)
Week 6: ARI: +7 at LAR, 38% tickets (ARI didn’t cover)
Week 7: ARI +9 at SEA, 37% tickets (ARI didn’t cover)
Week 8: ARI +9.5 vs BAL, 24% tickets (ARI covered)

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Browns

• PJ Walker is 7-2 ATS in his NFL career, covering the spread by 10.3 PPG.
• PJ Walker's teams have never lost a home game that he's started in the NFL or XFL. He’s 4-0 SU at home and 1-4 SU on the road in the NFL and he was 3-0 SU at home in the XFL with the Houston Roughnecks. He won his last six home starts at Temple in 2016. Last loss? Against Army on Sept. 2, 2016.
• Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success going 102-64-3 1H ATS since 2017.
  Week 9: CIN, SEA, CLE, LAC
• Watson is 2-2 ATS this season. Watson hasn’t finished above .500 ATS since rookie year (2017).
• Watson is 18-18-2 ATS in his career vs. teams .500 SU or worse and 11-12-1 ATS vs. under .500 SU teams.
• Watson has closed as a TD favorite or higher once since Christmas of 2020: -7.5 at HOU in 2022, CLE won 27-14.
• If Deshaun Watson starts in Week 9, he’ll be coming off a decent layoff since his injury. Here is how Watson has performed based on rest normally:
  Short rest: 11-1 SU, 7-3-2 ATS
  Normal rest: 17-19 SU, 16-20 ATS
  Extended rest: 6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS
• Stefanski with Browns
  Favorite: 21-10 SU, 11-20 ATS
  Dog: 9-18 SU, 15-11-1 ATS
• Browns lost in Week 8. Browns are 12-12-1 ATS after a loss under Stefanski.
  Browns are 10-19 SU, 11-18 ATS after a SU win under Stefanski
  Browns are 3-13 ATS in their last 15 games after a SU win.
• After a SU loss, Stefanski has been a favorite of 6 points or more in six games. Browns are 1-5 ATS.
• Browns are 10-11 SU, 6-15 ATS vs. AFC North under Kevin Stefanski.
  Of 145 head coaches last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the least profitable coach.
  Stefanski is 20-16-1 ATS against non-AFC North teams.
• Stefanski and Browns are 7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more.

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Rams at Packers | Sunday, Nov. 5

1:00pm ET | FOX

GB -3.5 | 38.5

Rams

• Matthew Stafford is 4-12-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season – second-worst mark in the NFL. Last five years, he is 21-39-2 2H ATS, the third-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert.
• Stafford is 29-73 SU as an underdog in his career, including 1-8 SU last two seasons.
  $100 bettor is down $2,546 last 20 years, worst in the NFL.
• Stafford can’t hold a lead.
  He’s 31-56-2 2H ATS after leading at half. Haven’t covered in reg season w this since before Christmas 2021 — nine straight.
  5-13-1 w Rams
  26-43-1 w Lions
  He’s 47-47-1 2H ATS when trailing HT.
• Stafford hasn’t finished above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 – he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, worst season since 2013.
  Rams, Stafford are 4-3-1 ATS this season.
• Stafford can’t beat good teams. He’s 31-66 SU and 36-59-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU – least profitable QB SU and ATS in this spot last 20 years.
  He is 8-9 SU and 6-11 ATS with Rams in this spot.
  When Stafford faces a team .500 SU or worse he is 57-37 SU and 47-43-4 ATS.
• Rams haven’t been half bad having to go to a backup recently. In their last 10 games with a backup QB, they are 4-6 SU and 7-3 ATS since 2020.
  Rams backups: Mayfield, Wolford, Perkins
• Rams have a bye next week. Teams with a bye coming up are 11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS this season, with the under 14-2 in those games.
  Teams before a bye are 230-155-3 SU, 219-163-6 ATS since 2013.
  Week 9: LAR, PHI
• Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have worked together well. Stats since Kupp came back.
  Kupp: 38 targets, 21 receptions | Puka: 37 targets, 22 receptions
  Puka’s 795 receiving yards are the most through eight career games all-time.
• Sean McVay’s teams tend to perform better early in the season vs. late.
  Sept/Oct: 36-17 SU
  Nov. on: 34-29 SU
• McVay is 25-16-1 ATS vs. NFC West & 34-37-3 ATS vs. all other visions
• How has McVay performed as an underdog? 13-23 SU, but 19-15-2 ATS (25-11 in a 6-pt teaser).
• Rams have lost seven straight road games SU entering this season. Now 2-2 SU on the road to open the year.
• Teams to lose by 20+ the week before are 84-54-1 ATS (61%) since 2020.

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Packers

• The Packers went 5-6 SU as favorites under Matt LaFleur last season. Week 9 would be their first game as a favorite this year if they close as such.
  Between 2019-21, Packers were 33-9 SU as a favorite under LaFleur.
  Packers haven’t been underdogs in their first seven games since 1980 prior to this season (GB were underdogs in their first seven games).
  Packers were last underdogs in their first eight games back in 1953 (dogs in first 10 games).
• Offensive problems in Green Bay.
  31st completion percentage, Yard per pass attempt 24th, Pass Rtg 27th, Yards per rush attempt 23rd
• LaFleur is 45-33 ATS in his career as Packers coach.
  Rodgers or not, LaFleur has done well at home, at 24-15 ATS, .500 ATS or better all five seasons in Green Bay.
  Packers have lost back-to-back home games ATS entering this game – they’ve never lost three straight at home ATS under LaFleur.
• LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 16-9 ATS as a ‘dog — 12-5 with Rodgers and 4-4 with Jordan Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 29-24 ATS.
• Jordan Love has been streaky has an NFL QB.
  Started 4-0 ATS, 0-4 ATS since.
  Love has never closed as a favorite in his eight career starts
• Love doesn’t play as good vs. good sack teams. Rams have 2.5% pct plays end in a sack.
  More than 2%: 1-4 ATS (first ATS win was the Saints game the Packers trailed 17-0)
  2% or less: 2-0 ATS
• Love has been chucking it this season. His 9.4 air yards per pass attempt is highest among all QBs.

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Buccaneers at Texans | Sunday, Nov. 5

1:00pm ET | CBS

HOU -3 | 40

Buccaneers

• If you bet against the Bucs ATS over the last two seasons, you would be 16-8-1 ATS, second-best mark in the NFL behind just the Bears.
• Baker Mayfield is 33-44-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,259 (272nd of 279 QBs in the last 20 years).
  Baker is 21-20 ATS as an underdog and 12-24-1 ATS as a favorite
• Todd Bowles teams have struggled mightily off of a loss. They are 18-32 SU, 19-29-2 ATS in that spot, including 2-9-1 ATS with the Bucs.
• Bowles is one of the worst coaches in the NFL as an underdog.
  14-39 SU, 21-29-3 ATS as an underdog (23-15 SU as a favorite)
  His 21-29-3 ATS mark is 142nd of 147 coaches last 20 years and worst of all active head coaches.
• Bucs had the longest ATS road losing streak in the NFL entering the season (six games) and then covered and won on the road in Minnesota in Week 1 and in New Orleans in Week 4, then they covered in Buffalo on TNF.
  Bucs are 1 of 2 teams undefeated ATS on the road this season: Jaguars.
  Bucs haven’t started 3-0 ATS on the road since 2012.
• Road trips haven’t boded well for Baker. He’s 4-9 ATS playing on the road after a road game in his previous start. In the last 20 years, he’s second-worst ATS in this spot of 217 QBs, just ahead of Jameis Winston.

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Texans

• Teams that lost and scored fewer than 14 pts in their last game tend to cover in their next game. Those teams are .500 ATS or better in six of the last seasons years.
  Week 9 matches: PIT, CHI, HOU, KC, GB, NYG
• CJ Stroud has had a very turnover free start to his career. His 237 pass attempts is the most by a QB in his first seven career starts having 1 INT or fewer.
• Most QB pass attempts this season, 1 INT or fewer
  Texans C.J. Stroud — 237 Pass Attempts
  Giants Tyrod Taylor – 87 Pass Attempts
  Colts Anthony Richardson – 84 Pass Attempts
• QBs with 1,800+ pass yds and 1 INT or fewer through seven career starts? CJ Stroud.
• Stroud has made seven starts in his NFL career. He’s 4-1 ATS as an underdog and 0-2 ATS as a favorite.
  He’s excelled in the first half, going 5-2 1H ATS this season.
  In the 1H, Stroud is 5-0 ATS as a dog, 0-2 ATS as a favorite
• Texans have won four games or less SU three straight years (2020-22) – last team to do it four straight years? 1972-75 Bears.
• System tells you to fade the Texans this week. Teams covering by 5 PPG or more, who didn’t make the playoffs year prior are covering 45% last 20 years – 8-13-1 ATS this season.

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Commanders at Patriots | Sunday, Nov. 5

1:00pm ET | FOX

NE -2.5 | 41

Commanders

• When two defenses, who allow 24+ PPG with a total below 50 in November or later, under is 150-112-6 (57.3%).
  Week 9: IND/CAR, WAS/NE
• Sam Howell has made nine career starts. QBs in their first 10 career starts, playing on the road in NE vs. Belichick are 5-31 SU.
• Howell has been sacked 41 times so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. The record for sacks taken in a season is 76, set by David Carr for the Texans in 2002, their first year in the NFL.

Most Times Sacked as QB — Through Eight Games
45 — David Carr, 2002
43 — David Carr, 2005
41 — Sam Howell, 2023

• Ron Rivera is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Bill Belichick in his career as a head coach.
  Coaches 3-0 ATS or better vs. Belichick in his career:
  Tom Coughlin: 7-0 ATS, Mike McDaniel: 4-0 ATS, Josh McDaniels: 3-0 ATS
• Howell is 3-1 ATS in his career on the road. All four games have ended in one-score games.
• When two bad defenses play. Go under. When both teams allow 24 PPG or more, the under is 57-34 (63%) last three seasons
  Week 9: CAR/IND, WAS/NE
• The dog is strong in Ron Rivera. He is 59-43-2 ATS as an underdog and 47-52-2 ATS as a favorite with Washington and Carolina.
• In the last four seasons, Rivera-coached games are 35-22-2 (61%) to the under.
  In that span, Rivera is the third-best coach to under: Joe Judge, Sean McVay, Ron Rivera
• Rivera has had issues covering the 1H spread. Washington is 3-5 1H ATS this season and 28-41-2 1H ATS since 2019 – 2nd-worst coach 1H ATS in NFL ahead of just Mike Tomlin.

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Patriots

• Patriots and Colts are facing off in Germany next week. Teams the week before playing a neutral site game are 91-53 SU (63.2%) and 81-60-3 ATS (57.4%) since 1990.
• Patriots are 4-11 SU, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
• Patriots have struggled vs. the best and done well against some of the bad teams.
  Since 2019, the Patriots are 16-23 SU, 14-23-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, second-worst ATS mark in the NFL just ahead of the Bears. Over that same span, they are 19-6 SU, 16-9 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, including 10-6 ATS since 2020.
  In that same span, they are 10-21-1 ATS vs. teams who made playoffs previous season, third-worst mark in the NFL (SEA, CHI). When they face a team who didn’t make the playoffs, they are 24-19-1 ATS in that span.
  Mac is 12-9 SU vs. teams who failed to make the playoffs the previous season and 6-13 SU vs. teams who did.

Mac Jones:

• Mac is 1-15 SU when opponents scores more than 24 pts. Mac is 17-7 SU when his defense allows 24 pts or less. When Mac scores 21 pts or less, NE is 4-16 SU.
• Jones is 16-23-1 ATS career – least profitable QB last 20 yrs under Belichick
  Mac is 5-0 ATS vs. Jets & Zack Wilson. He’s 11-23-1 ATS vs. all other QBs
  Mac is 0-6 ATS vs. Dolphins. He’s 16-17-1 ATS vs. all other teams
  Mac is 12-8-1 ATS as a favorite, 4-15 ATS as an underdog.
• Last week was Mac’s 15th career game with two or more pass TDs. NE is 6-9 SU in those games.
• Mac Jones is 5-24 from 20+ yards downfield this season, 20.8% completion pct is lowest for any QB in the NFL.

Bill Belichick

• Since Brady left, Belichick & NE are 27-32 SU, 26-32-1 ATS since 2020. Belichick without Tom Brady as head coach: 45-51 SU with NE, 37-45 SU w/ CLE, for a combined 82-96 SU.
• Since 2021, Belichick is 4-17 SU as an underdog (16-6 SU as a favorite). Between 2003-15, he was 25-22 SU as an underdog.
  +Since 2021, Patriots are 9-12 SU (42.9%) at home. Between 2000 and 2020, NE was 151-37 SU (80.3%) at home.
• Change of the times. Patriots are 5-12 SU vs. NFC opponents since 2020, they were 57-16 SU vs. NFC between 2003-2019.
  The 5-12 SU mark is least profitable on ML for any coach since 2020.
  Patriots are 0-3 SU vs. NFC this season. 0-3 SU or worse vs. non-conference teams this year: Belichick and Daboll.

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Bears at Saints | Sunday, Nov. 5

1:00pm ET | CBS

NO -8.5 | 41

Bears

• Since start of last season, Bears are 5-20 SU .. 2-2 SU at night, 3-18 SU not at night.
• With the Bears going to a backup again Sunday in Tyson Bagent, this will be the 37th game Chicago will start a backup QB over the last decade. Bears are 10-26 SU, 14-22 ATS in those games, including 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in the spot dating back to 2021.
• Bears are 19-29-1 ATS vs. non-NFC North divisions since 2019, third-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Falcons, Raiders.
• Bears are 6-2 to the over this year (T-best over mark in NFL) and 16-9 to the over since start of last season, best mark in the NFL.
• Most profitable NFL team to 𝐛𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭…
  • Since 2022: Bears (17-7-1 ATS)
  • Since 2021: Bears (28-13-1 ATS)
  • Since 2020: Bears (37-21-1 ATS)
  • Since 2019: Bears (49-24-2 ATS)
  • Since 2018: Bears (54-36-2 ATS)
• Bears are 1-7 SU in their last eight road games and 2-11 SU in their last 13 road games. Chicago’s five SU road wins since 2021, is tied for fewest in the NFL.
• Tough to play off a party city. Last decade, teams to play on road, coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 60-94-6 ATS (39%).

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Saints

• Saints are coming off 511 yards against the Colts last week. Last 20 years, teams coming off 500+ yards are under 47% ATS and 71-90-1 ATS at home.
• After 12 straight unders, the Saints have gone over in consecutive games.
  They are 6-2 to the under this year, 12-2 last 14, 15-3 in last 18 and 27-15 since start of 2021 season.
• Road Warriors. Here are the Saints ML record over the past few seasons, home vs. road.
  Last 3: Home: 7-11 SU | Road: 13-11 SU
  Last 5: Home: 20-17 SU | Road: 26-14 SU
• Carr is 8-24-2 ATS when favored by 3 pts or more, including 1-12-1 ATS in his last 14 games in this spot. Since 2021, he’s 1-9-1 ATS in this spot.
• Derek Carr covers vs. good defenses and tends to lose ATS vs. bad defenses. Based on how many PPG opposing defenses give up against Carr:
  Fewer than 21 PPG: 31-21 ATS
  21 PPG or more: 33-53-3 ATS
• Derek Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime now for the 5th time in his career this year, and is still struggling to cover the spread. 26-34-2 ATS in those previous four seasons and 2-5-1 ATS in 2023 with Saints.
  15: 8-8 ATS, 17: 5-8-2 ATS, 18: 6-10 ATS, 22: 7-8 ATS, 23: 2-5-1 ATS
• Saints are definitely going to be favored over the Bears, which isn’t a good thing for Derek Carr.
  Favorite: 18-34-2 ATS (worst of all QBs last 20 years)
  Underdog: 52-44-1 ATS
• Carr was 17-29-2 ATS as a favorite with the Raiders, with a $100 bettor down $1,286. Now with the Saints he is 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite.
  Carr hasn’t had a year above .500 ATS as a favorite since 2016
• Carr is 22-34-2 ATS on the road/neutral since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (123 of 123 QBs). He’s 22-23-1 ATS at home in that span.
• Allen-coached teams are just 13-19-1 ATS vs. teams who are under .500 SU on the season
• In his career, Dennis Allen is 19-42 SU. His 31.2% win pct is 10th-worst among all head coaches in the Super Bowl era. Here is the worst list since 2000:
  Hue Jackson, Steve Spagnuolo, Gus Bradley, Pat Shurmur, Dave McGinnis, Dennis Allen.
• Dennis Allen is a bit better with some prep.
  Short rest: 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS
  Normal rest: 9-26 SU, 12-23 ATS
  Extended rest + Week 1: 9-8 SU, 9-6-2 ATS
  He’s 10-34 SU, 14-30 ATS on short or normal rest as a head coach
• Allen is 23-36-2 ATS in his career as a coach.
  Allen’s 23-36-2 ATS mark is 3rd-worst for any coach last 20 years:

1. Jon Gruden, 146. Mike Shanahan, 145. Dennis Allen

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Colts at Panthers | Sunday, Nov. 5

4:05pm ET | FOX

IND -2.5 | 44

Colts

• A game for rushing TDs? Colts have allowed 15 this year, Panthers 14, the two highest marks in the NFL. The 15 mark for Indy is tied for second-most through eight games in Wild Card era.
• Colts opened as an underdog and are now the favorites. Those such teams are 43-83 ATS since 2019 and 7-11 ATS this season.
  Week 9: ATL, IND, LAC
• When two bad defenses play. Go under. When both teams allow 24 PPG or more, the under is 57-34 (63%) last three seasons
  Week 9: CAR/IND, WAS/NE
• Patriots and Colts are facing off in Germany next week. Teams the week before playing a neutral site game are 91-53 SU (63.2%) and 81-60-3 ATS (57.4%) since 1990.
• Colts defense has been bad lately. They’ve allowed 38, 39 and 37 pts in their last three games. This was last done by a Colts team back in 2018.
  In the last 3 seasons, Colts are just the third team to allow 37+ in three straight games: 2020 Cowboys, 2021 Jaguars.
  They would be fifth team to be favored after allowing 35+ in three straight in the last 20 years. Other four teams won SU their next game.
• Have the Colts and Cardinals gotten lucky? Teams to win four games or fewer year prior, who have lost two or more straight games and are .500 ATS or better on the year, are 73-109-4 ATS last 20 years, including 7-17 ATS last third seasons.
• Colts are the only NFL team to score 20 pts in every game this season. They’ve scored 20-plus in nine straight games. The second-longest streak? The Jaguars with five games.
• Still Minshew time in Indy. Minshew is 3-11 SU, 4-10 ATS in “toss up” games – a spread of 4 points or less
• Colts got Jonathan Taylor back in the mix a bit, lately but it hasn’t mattered.
  Colts when Taylor gets 10+ carries: 21-19-1 SU
  Fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play: 6-12 SU
  Colts have lost five straight when Taylor gets 10 or more carries and are 2-10-1 SU in their last 13 games when Taylor gets double-digit carries.
• Gardner Minshew is 2-13 SU in his last 15 starts – he broke a streak of 8 consecutive losses SU as a dog against the Ravens earlier this season. He’s 3-11 ATS in his last 14 starts (5-11 ATS since 2020).
• Colts QBs have struggled in the back up role. They are 5-17 SU (10-12 ATS) since 2017.
• When Minshew’s opponent scores more than 20 points, he is 1-16 SU.
• Minshew is 7-11 SU when he throws two or more passing TDs in a game in his career.

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Panthers

• When two defenses, who allow 24+ PPG with a total below 50 in November or later, under is 150-112-6 (57.3%).
  Week 9: IND/CAR, WAS/NE
• Panthers are 0-4 ATS on the road this season. Most losses without a win ATS on the road this year (DEN is 0-2-1 ATS).
• Panthers are coming off their first win last week. Teams coming off a win, who have struggled mightily lately have lost the following week.
  Teams coming off a SU win, who are 1-6 SU in their last seven games, are 26-47-1 SU in their next game.
  Teams coming off a SU win, who are 1-4 SU in their last five games, are 79-134-1 SU in their next game.
• Frank Reich is 2-9 SU, 3-7-1 ATS as a home underdog as coach of the Panthers and Colts
• What a first half ATS rollercoaster Frank Reich teams have gone through.
  2023 Panthers: 5-2 1H ATS
  2022 Colts: 0-9 1H ATS
  2018-21 Colts: 42-25-1 1H ATS (Reich 2nd-best in NFL)
• Bryce Young is 1-5 SU so far this season. Since 2000, No. 1 overall QB picks are 63-124-2 SU in their first season.
• Panthers and former Colts coach Frank Reich usually plays to his role
  As favorite: 30-13-1 SU
  As underdog: 12-28 SU

Under 6-foot Starting QBs Rookie Year
2023 Bryce Young 1-5 SU
2020 PJ Walker 1-0 SU
2019 Kyler Murray 5-11 SU
2012 Russell Wilson 11-5 SU
1986 Doug Flutie 1-0 SU
1976 Pat Haden 5-2 SU

Highest Team O/U – Draft QB first Overall in Wild Card Era (since 1990)
1992 Giants/Dave Brown – 9 (Supplemental Draft) (6-10 SU)
2023 Panthers/Bryce Young – 7.5 (1-6 SU)
2016 Rams/Jared Goff – 7.5 (4-12 SU)

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Giants at Raiders | Sunday, Nov. 5

4:25pm ET | FOX

LV -2 | 37.5

Giants

• Titans and Giants play on the road this week, with a 3-game road trip coming up.
  Teams who play at least three straight road games, are 48-73 SU, 67-50-4 ATS in the first game of that road trip when listed as an underdog in the Wild Card era.
• The Giants are 7-1 to the under this season. Tied for best under team in the NFL with the Vikings.
  That is the Giants best start to the over or under through eight games since 1980.
• The Giants had -9 passing yards last week against the Jets – the lowest mark for any team since the 2000 Browns.
  Teams after having fewer than 50 pass yards in their previous game and are road dogs the next week, are 62-38-3 ATS (62%) in the last decade.
• Daboll led the Giants to an impressive 11-3 ATS record as an underdog in Year 1, going 7-6 straight-up (SU) in those spots, but 2023 hasn’t been as kind. Giants are 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
• In his career, Daniel Jones is 35-23-2 to the under. In the last 20 years, he’s the sixth-most profitable QB to the under.
  Jones is 31-15-2 to the under since 2020 – best QB to the under by $500+ margin.
• Jones has done a much better job at covering on the road vs. at home in his career:
  Home: 13-17 ATS (-$513)
  Road/Neutral: 19-11 ATS (+$670)
• In 1 p.m. ET games or earlier, Jones is 18-16-1 SU, 21-14 ATS (fifth-best mark in the NFL since he was drafted).
  After the 1 p.m. ET window, he's 5-20 SU, 11-14 ATS (lost five straight ATS).
  The 5-20 SU mark after 1 p.m. ET is ranked 240th of 247 QBs in ML profitability in the last 20 years – Of the 72 QBs with 20+ starts after 1 p.m. ET, Jones’ 20% win percentage is the worst.
• Since 2017, Giants are 8-38 SU in games played after the 1 p.m. ET window – least profitable team on the moneyline in the NFL.
• Teams going from EST to PST to play on the road have performed well recently – going 69-49-5 ATS (59%) since 2016.

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Raiders

• The Raiders team total under is 8-0 this season – the only team in the NFL without a team total over on the season.
• It’s demoralizing to lose on Monday Night Football. Those teams are just 47.4% SU, 46.8% ATS the next week in the Wild Card era.
  When those teams lose by 10+: 42.5% SU, 45.5% ATS
• Aidan O’Connell is the 24th different Raiders starting QB over the last 20 years.
  Only 2 of those previous 24 have been profitable ATS for the Raiders: Jason Campbell and Terrelle Pryor
• Jimmy Garoppolo’s longest completion is 32 yds this season. Of 36 QBs with 75+ pass attempts, that’s lowest of any QB – may have been a reason he got benched.
• Garoppolo leads the NFL with nine interceptions this season. He was 30-1 to lead the NFL in interceptions for the year in the preseason – not great for his bettors after he got benched this week.
• Raiders home/road since moving to Las Vegas
  Raiders at home in Vegas: 13-15 SU, 15-13 ATS
  On road/neutral: 14-17 SU, 12-19 ATS
• Josh McDaniels was fired and now Antonio Pierce will be the interim head coach, facing the Giants this week – his former playing team.
• Josh McDaniels started his career 6-0 SU/ATS in Denver. Since that run, McDaniels coached teams are 14-34 SU and 18-29 ATS.
• Josh McDaniels coached teams fade late
  13-16 SU in Sept-Oct
  7-17 SU in Nov or later
• Per our Action Labs database, 35 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 16-19 straight up (SU) and 19-16 against the spread (ATS).35 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 16-19 straight up (SU) and 19-16 against the spread (ATS).
  A 54% ATS win rate might not look great, but those teams had an 90-239-3 SU record (27.4%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 122-204-5 ATS (37.4%) record prior to the coaching change.

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Cowboys at Eagles | Sunday, Nov. 5

4:25pm ET | CBS

PHI -3 | 47

Cowboys

• These good teams, who are dogs, have been bad lately.
  Teams with 70% win pct, who are underdogs, are 17-30-1 ATS since start of last season.
  Week 9: DAL, SEA, MIA
• Dak Prescott has had success playing against the NFC East.
  He’s 28-7 SU, 25-10 ATS.
  Over the past 20 years, he’s the third-most profitable QB ATS vs. his own division: 1. Rodgers, 2. Roethlisberger, 3. Prescott
  Prescott is 8-3 SU/ATS vs. Eagles and 1-0 SU/ATS vs. Jalen Hurts.
  Prescott is 25-10 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,378), 35-38-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$504)
• Prescott’s 8-3 ATS mark is best for QB ATS vs. Eagles in the last 20 years. He’s only QB 3-0 ATS or better vs. Siriani.
• Prescott is 6-0 ATS coming off a loss last two seasons and 5-8 ATS off a SU win.
• Prescott does well vs. bad teams. He is 33-10 SU, 28-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 21-22 SU, 17-26 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
  The 28-13-2 ATS mark is second-best in the last 20 years behind just Tom Brady.
  The 17-26 ATS mark is 250th of 257 QBs in the last 20 years.
• Mike McCarthy is 59-38 ATS vs. division opponents with GB/DAL (11-8 ATS w/ DAL).
  Last 20 years, he’s most profitable coach vs. division opp ATS (+$1,743)
  Vs. Div: 49-27 ATS as favorite, 10-11 ATS as underdog
• Cowboys are coming off a big win. Under McCarthy, Dallas is 4-9 ATS after winning by 20 pts or more – including 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in this spot. Last two seasons, Dallas is 3-8 ATS after winning by double-digits.
• Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson has 11 targets in the red zone this year, tied for the most targets among TEs in the NFL with Travis Kelce.
• Can the Cowboys keep it going? Last three seasons…
  After a loss SU: 12-1 ATS
  After a win SU: 15-13 ATS
• Dak as an underdog: 12-17 SU, 15-14 ATS
  When he gets 3.5 pts or more he’s 9-7 ATS
  Dak is 4-2 SU/ATS as a dog vs. NFC East

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Eagles

• When the Eagles are trailing, they can get back in the game quick. They are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games when trailing by 10 pts or more at any point, including 2-0 SU this season.
  All other teams are 13-90 when trailing by 10 pts or more at any point in the game this year.
• Eagles have a brutal schedule coming up: DAL, KC, BUF, SF, DAL, SEA
  Philly’s next six games are against teams with a combined record of 26-11 SU this season.
• The Rams have a bye next week. Teams with a bye coming up are 11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS this season, with the under 14-2 in those games.
  Teams before a bye are 231-155-3 SU, 2220-163-6 ATS since 2013.
  Week 9: LAR, PHI
• Impact of Lane Johnson.
  Without him: 13-22 SU
  With him: 86-48-1 SU
• Hurts is 19-7 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, 2nd-best mark of any QB in the NFL.
• Eagles are 12-3 1H ML in their last 15 games. Hurts is 24-15-3 1H ML in his career.
  Since start of last season, Eagles are 19-5-1 1H ML – most 1H ML wins in NFL.
• Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
  Home: 15-6-1 ATS (third of 92 QBs since 2020)
  Road/Neutral: 9-14-1 ATS (90th of 92 QBs since 2020)
• Hurts is 15-6-1 ATS at home with Eagles, all other PHI QBs in the last 20 years are 71-82-1 ATS at home for Philly.
• Hurts has been money as a favorite. His teams are 28-6 SU as a favorite w/ Hurts as the starter, including 28-4 SU when the Eagles are favored by 3 pts or more.
  Hurts is 28-4 SU as a favorite in his last 32 starts.
• Hurts doesn’t love facing good offenses. Eagles are 8-10 SU vs. team scoring 24 PPG or more on the year and 21-4 SU under that mark.
• Hurts is 10-1 SU in his last 11 NFC East games. Only loss vs. Washington.
• Hurts is 15-1 SU as a home favorite in his career. His only loss to Taylor Heinicke.
  Best win pct for a home favorite min. 10 games last 20 years.
• Hurts is 11-3 SU at home vs. teams above .500 SU on the season – he’s won 10 consecutive starts in this spot.
• Divisional unders system: later season, outdoor divisional games with a higher total, go over the total 59.7% of games. This is the first game for this system this year (179-121-5 last 20 years).

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Bills at Bengals | Sunday, Nov. 5

8:20pm ET | NBC

CIN -2.5 | 50.5

Bills

• This will be Josh Allen and Joe Burrow’s third career meeting. Burrow won in Buffalo back in 2022-23 playoffs. The other meeting was cancelled due to Damar Hamlin injury.
• Allen is 15-6 SU, 11-10 ATS in night games, including 8-1 SU at home, but just 7-5 SU away from home.
  Allen has played five games as a dog at night, he is 3-2 SU/ATS
• Allen has played 28 games as an underdog in his career. 16-10-2 ATS.
  16-7-2 ATS as a dog in regular season
  0-3 ATS as a dog in the playoffs
• Under is 25-16-2 (61%) in Josh Allen road games in his career – third-best to the under on the road since he entered the league.
• The Bills have lost four straight games ATS
  Josh Allen has only lost four straight ATS one other time in his career (2020; 4 straight). Five straight ATS losses would be a career high for Allen.
  Bills haven’t lost five straight ATS since 1976, when they lost 6 straight ATS.
  Bills have covered 14 straight games on a 4-game ATS losing streak since that losing streak in 1976-77.
• In toss up games, where spread is 3 points or less, Allen is 17-10 SU, 17-9-1 ATS.
• Josh Allen has thrown an INT in four straight games – he hasn’t thrown a pick in 5 straight regular season games in his career.
  Dec. 19-28, 2020: last time Josh Allen didn’t have a turnover in consecutive regular season starts.
  Regular Season:
  He has 68 INT since 2018, T-most in NFL (Baker Mayfield).
  He has 55 fumbles since 2018, most in NFL.
• Josh Allen has 60 wins in his career and 45 of those 60 wins have been by 7 points or more.
• Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career.
  Allen is 31-19-3 ATS on 7 days rest (11th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot)
  He’s 7-9-1 ATS on short rest and 6-11-1 ATS on extended rest.
• Allen’s 6-11-1 ATS mark on extended rest is 214th of 219 QB in the last 20 years.
• The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 55-34-3 against the second half spread. Since 2005, he’s the 2nd-most profitable QB on the second half spread of 251 QBs.

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Bengals

• Burrow has made eight night starts, he is just 4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS.
  Burrow is 0-3-1 ATS in his last four starts at night
• Burrow has made four home starts at night, the Bengals are 4-0 SU, 1-2-1 ATS.
  In night games away from home, Burrow is 0-5 SU, 3-2 ATS
• Bengals played the 49ers last week. Teams after playing the 49ers are 5-19 SU, 6-16-2 ATS since the start of last season, including 20-39 SU, 23-34-2 ATS since 2020.
• Burrow is 27-18-1 to the under in the last three seasons, the fourth-most profitable QB to the under in the NFL of 90 QBs.
• Burrow is 22-9 SU as a favorite in his career. He is 15-4 SU as a favorite in his last 19 starts.
• Bengals have won three straight. Burrow has 8 TD, 2 INT in those games, and in that span he leads all QBs in success rate and completion %.
• Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success going 102-64-3 1H ATS since 2017.
  Week 9: CIN, SEA, CLE, LAC
• Joe Burrow prefers the road to home when it comes to covering the number.
  Road/Neutral: 21-10 ATS
  Home: 14-10-1 ATS
• Burrow is 18-9 SU, 19-8 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. In the last 20 years, he’s the sixth-most profitable QB ATS vs. teams above .500 SU of 257 QBs.
  Burrow is 17-4 SU in his last 21 games vs. above .500 SU opponents
  Burrow at LSU was 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS vs. above .500 SU opponents
  NFL and LSU combined: 33-12 SU, 32-13 ATS vs. above .500 SU opponents
• In Joe Burrow’s career, he is 37-18-1 (67%) against the second half spread in his career.
  Best 2H ATS mark in the NFL since he was drafted.
• Burrow is 9-9 ATS vs. AFC North and 26-11-1 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents
• Burrow is 19-4 SU and 19-3-1 ATS in his last 22 games vs. non-divisional opponents

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Chargers at Jets | Monday, Nov. 6

8:15pm ET | ESPN

LAC -3.5 | 40

Chargers

• Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success going 102-64-3 1H ATS since 2017.
  Week 9: CIN, SEA, CLE, LAC
• PST and MST teams have had success playing on the road in EST lately, they are 66-41-3 ATS since 2019 – over .500 ATS in all five seasons.
  Week 9: ARI, SEA, LAC
• Falcons opened as an underdog and are now the favorites. Those such teams are 43-83 ATS since 2019 and 7-11 ATS this season.
  Week 9: ATL, IND, LAC
• There are 14 teams that had win total of 9.5 or more entering the season, only one has three wins or less – Chargers.
• Tough schedule quirk for Chargers. Going from PST to EST and from night game to night game.
  The previous 10 teams in this spot last decade, 1-6-3 1Q ML.
• The Chargers have played 25 games since the start of last season, and 18 of them have finished within seven points.
  19 of the Chargers last 26 games have been decided by 7 points or less dating back to the Week 18, 2021 Raiders loss. Chargers last 9 losses were by: 14, 3, 3, 2, 1, 3, 7, 3, 6
• In night games overall, Herbert is 7-8 SU, 9-6 ATS
  5-3 SU at home, 2-5 SU on road in night games
• Herbert’s W/L record has been a product of his defense in his career.
  When his defense allows 27 pts or more, LAC is 6-24 SU, 9-21 ATS.
  When his defense allows fewer than 27 pts, LAC is 22-5 SU, 21-5-1 ATS
• Herbert is 15-12 ATS on the road, and only 14-14-1 ATS at home in his career.
  Chargers have finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons.
  Chargers have finished above .500 ATS once at home in the last 10 years.
• Herbert by time zone:
  EST/CST: 13-7 ATS
  MST/PST: 17-19-1 ATS
• Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite
  Underdog: 13-8 ATS, 18-3 in 6-point teasers
  Favorite: 17-18-1 ATS, 26-8 in 6-point teasers
• Herbert is 15-18-1 ATS in “toss up” games in his career – or games with a spread of 4 points or less – including 10-15-1 ATS with spread of 3 points or less. He’s 1-6-1 ATS in his last eight games in this spot, with his lone win over Cousins, Vikings.
• Herbert is 12-3 1H ATS in night games – the second-best mark since 2005 behind just Peyton Manning.
• Herbert is 33-24 1H ATS, he’s 16-9 1H ATS since start of last season – third-best mark in the NFL.
• Herbert is 16-36-5 against the second half spread in his career.
  Since 2005, he’s 249th of 252 QBs in 2H ATS profitability
  Can’t hold a lead: he’s 7-25-2 2H ATS when leading at halftime (-$1,855, worst in NFL since he was drafted)
  When Herbert’s had the lead at half in a night game, he’s 1-10-1 2H ATS.
  In night games, Herbert is 3-11-1 2H ATS

Herbert 2H ATS Career
2023: 1-5-1 ATS
2022: 6-10-2 ATS
2021: 5-12 ATS
2020: 4-9-2 ATS

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Jets

• This will be the 33rd night game for the Jets and Giants since the 2018 season. They are a combined 4-28 SU, including 2-24 SU in their last 26 night games.
  Since 2018, Jets and Giants are 1-14 SU at home in night games.
• Not awful. Zach Wilson has one INT in his last 170 pass attempts and this season, his interception pct of 2.3% is lowest in his career.
• Jets have 3 wins with Zach Wilson as the starting QB this season. All three wins have required a fourth quarter comeback from Wilson and the Jets.
  Wilson has the most fourth quarter comebacks in the NFL this season.
• Jets have struggled on extended rest with Zach Wilson. He’s 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS, scoring 29 total pts in the three games.
  Saleh has coached four games on extended rest, Jets are 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 14 PPG.
  Coaches 0-4 ATS or worse on extended rest last 20 years:
  Bill Callahan: 0-6 ATS, Saleh 0-4-1 ATS
  Jets have also struggled on short rest FWIW…
  Wilson has played two career games on short rest, Jets are 0-2 SU/ATS. Jets scored 13 total points in those two games.
  Saleh has coached three games on short rest, Jets are 0-3 SU/ATS, losing by 15, 16 and 20 pts in the three games.
• Bad history again for Zach? Wilson became the first player since the NFL merger to record the worst passer rating two years in a row last year. In 2023, he currently has the third-worst passer rating in the NFL, ahead of just Daniel Jones and Ryan Tannehill.
• Wilson and the Jets have struggled to win against good offensive teams.
  20 PPG or higher: 5-12 SU
  19.9 PPG or less: 6-4 SU
• With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets start a “backup QB” for the rest of the season. Jets have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB. They are 6-27 SU, 13-19-1 ATS over the last decade when starting a backup QB.
• Zach Wilson has made two career starts at night
  23-20 home loss to the Chiefs, 2023 as 7.5-pt underdogs
  19-3 home loss to the Jaguars, 2022 as 2.5-pt favorites.

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NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️

Biggest NFL Week 9 Public Sides
Browns (-11.5) vs. ARI					88% of bets
Bengals (-2.5) vs. BUF					74% of bets

Biggest NFL Week 9 Line Moves
Saints (-2.5 to -8.5) vs. CHI
Browns (-7 to -11.5) vs. ARI

NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️

Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Week 9
Dolphins vs. Chiefs (-1.5)					125k bets
Bills at Bengals (-2.5)					75k bets

Biggest NFL Week 9 Public Totals
LAR-GB (O/U: 38.5)					92% of bets to under
ARI-CLE (O/U: 38.5)					87% of bets to under

System: Fade home favorites off a loss.

Matches: NE, CLE, KC, ATL, GB

$$$: Fade Home Favs off Loss

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 or 2017-18 or 2016-17 or 2015-16 or 2014-15 season

the team is the Favorite

the team is the Home team

the team's previous game margin is between -100 and -1

the spread % is between 51% and 100%

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

$-4,398

WON

181-217-9

RECORD

45%

WIN%

View System

System: Traveling between entertaining cities can chaos outside issues. A system we curated, 39% ATS last decade.

Matches: CHI

$$$: Off Road in party city, Road again (LA, LV, MIA, ATL, NY, NO)

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 or 2017-18 or 2016-17 or 2015-16 or 2014-15 or 2013-14 season

the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season

the team is the Visitor team

the previous game the team was the Visitor team

the team has had between 0 and 7 days off

the team's previous opponent was the Atlanta Falcons or Las Vegas Raiders or Los Angeles Chargers or Los Angeles Rams or Miami Dolphins or New Orleans Saints or New York Giants or New York Jets

$-3,690

WON

60-94-6

RECORD

39%

WIN%

View System

System: Bet west coast teams on the east coast after a home game. 57.4% hit rate last decade.

Matches: ARI, SEA, LAC

$$$: MST/PST in EST after home game

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 or 2017-18 or 2016-17 or 2015-16 or 2014-15 or 2013-14 season

the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season

the previous game the team was the Home team

the game is played in the Eastern timezone

the team is the Visitor team

the visitor's timezone is in the Mountain or Pacific timezone

$1,829

WON

85-63-4

RECORD

57%

WIN%

View System

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

• NEW LEADER: Texans FB Andrew Beck now tied with Jets FB Nick Bawden for most-profitable overall at +28U.
• New Top 10: Andrei Iosivas (+18U) & Tommy Tremble (+17.5U)
• W8 Biggest Hits: Scotty Miller & Ben Skowronek, each at +1800

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

• Less movement on this front except for Andrew Beck with the HUGE +7000 hit.
• Jordan Addison +33U & Jakobi Meyers +30.5U most notable as players playing significant snaps on their teams.

League Trends ⤵️

Best of the Rest

Undefeated Angles

The rest of the undefeated angles.

Undefeated Teams Left:

• 1H ML: ATL 0-6-2
• 2H Under: KC 8-0
• 1Q Under: MIN 7-0-1
• 1Q ML: BAL 7-0-1
• 4Q Under: KC 8-0
• Raiders 8-0 team total under

Bye, Bye, Bye

Early Advantage?

Rams and Eagles each have a bye next week. Teams with a bye coming up are 11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS this season, with the under 14-2 in those games. Teams before a bye are 230-155-3 SU, 219-163-6 ATS since 2013.

Check out our Caesars Sportsbook promo code and get in on the action!

All About INTs

2023 Report

Interception Report from Gilles Gallant:

1) P. Mahomes +4.7U
2) J. Hurts +4.3U
3) J. Garoppolo +4.1U
4) D. Jones +3.6U
5) J. Goff +3.5U

Plus-Money QB INTs:
Week 8: 5-5 +0.9U
2023: 53-39 +26.8U

NFL QB INT Record if you had bet "Yes" for each starting QB in every game of 2023:

Week 8: 18-13, 58%
2023 Season: 135-106-1, 56%.

Was hitting at 51.9% overall to "Yes" prior to Week 6. Gone 54-33 (62%) to "Yes" in just the L3 weeks.

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Biggest Super Bowl Riser

New York Jets: 66-1 (NYJ was 100-1 to win SB last week)

Biggest Super Bowl Faller

Pittsburgh Steelers: 80-1 (PIT was 50-1 to win SB last week)

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

NFL Win Total Grid & Progress

Trending Up 📈
Dolphins					6-2	Win Total: 9.5
Jaguars					6-2	Win Total: 9.5
Lions					6-2	Win Total: 9.5
Eagles					7-1	Win Total: 11.5
Seahawks					5-2	Win Total: 8.5
Ravens					6-2	Win Total: 10.5
Cowboys					5-2	Win Total: 9.5
Chiefs					6-2	Win Total: 11.5
Bills					5-3	Win Total: 10.5
49ers					5-3	Win Total: 10.5
Falcons					4-4	Win Total: 8.5
Steelers					4-3	Win Total: 8.5
Vikings					4-4	Win Total: 8.5
Buccaneers					3-4	Win Total: 6.5
Colts					3-5	Win Total: 6.5
Commanders					3-5	Win Total: 6.5

Trending Down 📉
Raiders					3-4	Win Total: 6.5
Rams					3-5	Win Total: 6.5
Texans					3-4	Win Total: 6.5
Browns					4-3	Win Total: 9.5
Jets					4-3	Win Total: 9.5
Saints					4-4	Win Total: 9.5
Titans					3-4	Win Total: 7.5
Broncos					3-5	Win Total: 8.5
Bengals					4-3	Win Total: 11.5
Chargers					3-4	Win Total: 9.5
Bears					2-6	Win Total: 7.5
Giants					2-6	Win Total: 7.5
Packers					2-5	Win Total: 7.5
Patriots					2-6	Win Total: 7.5
Cardinals					1-7	Win Total: 4.5
Panthers					1-6	Win Total: 7.5

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Odds	3rd In Odds
NFL MVP	Patrick Mahomes (+300)	Tua Tagovailoa (+350)	Jalen Hurts (+350)
Offensive POY	Christian McCaffrey (+150)	Tyreek Hill (+150)	AJ Brown (+800)
Defensive POY	Micah Parsons (+200)	Myles Garrett (+200)	T.J. Watt (+250)
Offensive ROY	CJ Stroud (-165)	Puka Nacua (+300)	Jordan Addison (+1200)
Defensive ROY	Jalen Carter (-125)	Devon Witherspoon (+135)	Brian Branch (+1000)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (-150)	Tua Tagovailoa (+200)	Breece Hall (+1000)
Coach Of The Year	Dan Campbell (+250)	Mike McDaniel (+300)	Robert Saleh (+600)
Updated as of October 11th

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• AJ Brown moved from 25-1 to 8-1 to win OPOY this past week. He was as high as 66-1 in Week 4.
• Joe Burrow moved from 50-1 to 20-1 to win MVP after his performance against the 49ers.
• Robert Saleh is down to 3rd in COY odds. He was 40-1 in Week 6, now down to 6-1.

Trivia Instructions

For this weeks trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: Since 2021, QBs making their first career start, playing on road, are 3-15 straight up. Same spot Jaren Hall is in this week. Name any of the three QBs to pick up a win in that spot.

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