Sunday should be a treat, with four fantastic matchups in a row for us to get our NFL predictions in. It starts with the Chiefs taking on the Dolphins in Germany in the morning. We will then get two very intriguing matchups in the afternoon windows with the Seahawks on the road against the Ravens followed by an enormous NFC East clash when the Cowboys head north to take on the Eagles.
Finally, we'll close things out in primetime in Cincinnati when the Bills hit the highway seeking revenge for last year's AFC divisional round loss. It doesn't get any better on a Sunday for bettors and fans with close to 15 hours of non-stop action, led by four very good matchups on paper.
I'm sure the other games filled with an abundance of quarterback uncertainty will also end up grabbing our attention throughout the afternoon, but the aforementioned quartet of marquee games is getting all of the attention this week for good reason.
Therefore, I wanted to share my quick betting thoughts on all four to potentially help swing you one way or the other on a potential wager or two. Let's kick things off in Frankfurt.
Can the Dolphins finally get a win when they step up in class this season? They have six wins over teams with a combined 13-33 record (including the Patriots twice), while also benefiting from facing the decimated Giants offensive line, Panthers backup secondary and the Broncos before they fixed some of their defensive injuries. Meanwhile, against the only two teams with a winning record, Miami lost by a combined 42 points in a similar price range against the Eagles and Bills.
In fairness, the Dolphins have dealt with injuries of their own on the defensive side of the ball and along the offensive line. They are getting healthier defensively with Jalen Ramsey making his season debut last week and stud safety Jevon Holland clearing concussion protocol this week.
Overall, Vic Vangio's unit has struggled so far this season, ranking 22nd overall in DVOA, 20th in EPA per Play and 27th in Success Rate. I expect the Dolphins to continue to trend up on this side of the ball as the season progresses as they do rank in the top 10 in both Success Rate and EPA per Play over the past four weeks.
The Miami offensive line also has been ravaged by injuries. It remains to be seen whether star left tackle Terror Armstead or starting center Connor Williams will suit up, but the Dolphins will definitely make do without both starting guards Isaiah Wynn and Robert Hunt.
That could spell trouble against a much improved Chiefs defense that ranks fourth in pressure rate and has the second-most sacks in 2023. While Tagovailoa does get the ball out as quickly as any quarterback, he ranks 26th out of 32 quarterbacks in Passer Rating when under pressure (minimum 50 dropbacks) compared to tied for first in a clean pocket with Brock Purdy.
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While the Dolphins have a number of injury question marks, the Chiefs head across the pond with extremely good health, assuming Patrick Mahomes has kicked the flu he dealt with last week. The one exception comes at linebacker with Nick Botlon on IR, which could become even more problematic if Willie Gay, who practiced on Friday but in a limited fashion, can't go.
Kansas City has the more complete team right now. The defense isn't as talented as Miami's but the sum is greater in the parts. Over the past few decades, the Chiefs are one of only a handful of teams that ranks in the top five of DVOA on offense, defense and special teams. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have the number 1 offense, but rank 22nd on defense and 25th on special teams.
Miami should have success on the ground with Raheem Mostert against a suspect Kansas City run defense. Plus, they will always hit a few explosive passing plays with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the outside. There are also plenty of paths to success for the Chiefs offense because they have Patrick Mahomes the last time I checked.
However, Tagovailoa is much more mistake-prone, especially under pressure, and I see the Kansas City defense bowing up in the red zone where Miami has some potential looming touchdown regression, while the opposite is true for the Kansas City offense. The Dolphins are also more likely to make a key special teams error that could swing what should be a super competitive game.
At the end of the day, the handicap is basic with the Chiefs' moneyline. Just like in the Super Bowl, I need the best quarterback on the planet to simply win the game. I will almost always bet that angle. For reference, including the postseason, Mahomes is 19-6-1 ATS (76%) as an underdog or favorite of three or less.
The 6-2 Ravens will welcome the 5-2 Seahawks in a battle of two first-place teams in Charm City. I think the Seahawks are in a bit of trouble here.
Geno Smith really struggles against man coverage, which has held true once again this season. Expect to see defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald use a high frequency of man coverage on Sunday with a now-healthy secondary. I also anticipate him increasing the pressure looks against Smith, whose numbers fall off a cliff when not operating from a clean pocket. On the season, Smith has one big-time throw to six turnover-worthy plays when under pressure, per Pro Football Focus.
On the other side of the ball, this revamped Ravens offense is absolutely rolling after getting healthier and gaining more familiarity with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken's system. Lamar Jackson and company should cook against what I believe to be an overrated Seahawks defense.
Like everyone else, I have loved what I've seen from rookie Devon Witherspoon, but this unit still has holes. While the run defense is legit, Lamar Jackson can have success with his legs, especially considering the Seahawks have never seen him before.
There's a reason why Jackson is 18-1 straight up against the NFC, having never lost at home. It's just a shock to the system of opposing defenses to try to deal with his elusiveness and speed. Plus, the Seahawks play a high frequency of zone, which is not how you want to defend this dangerous Baltimore passing attack.
Let's just dig into the Seattle defense a little more. To start the year, the Seahawks allowed 30, 31, and 27 to the Panthers, Lions and Rams. Since then, everybody has seemingly changed their tune on this unit, crowning them as an elite defense. However, they've played the Giants (with a backup offensive line that has inflated all of their pressure numbers), the Bengals when Joe Burrow was still stuck in the mud, Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals, then P.J. Walker and the Browns. This could be a rude awakening.
I think the Ravens jump out early on the Seahawks then hold on for the cover — although I highly doubt it will go as smoothly as it did against Detroit.
I like the Cowboys catching a field goal in the city of Brotherly Love.
As it stands, I currently have the Cowboys power rated slightly ahead of the Eagles — although it's an extremely marginal difference. That said, with home-field advantage worth a little over a point for this divisional game, per my numbers, I'm happy to take the field goal here with the road divisional dog.
I was almost all the way out on Dallas earlier in the season, especially after what I saw in San Francisco. I had concerns about the defense after Trevon Diggs went down with an injury, but those have since been alleviated with the emergence of DaRon Bland, who has allowed the lowest passer rating against when targeted among all qualified cornerbacks. Meanwhile, undrafted linebacker Marqueese Bell has also been a revelation. Bell actually grades out as the best linebacker in the league so far this season, per PFF, serving as an actual upgrade over injured Leighton Vander Esch.
While everyone behind behind one of the best defensive lines in the NFL has seemingly settled in, the offense has also found its footing. For starters, the offensive line is trending up health-wise, especially if Tyron Smith (questionable) can return at left tackle next to Tyler Smith, who's playing at an All-Pro level at left guard.
Most importantly, the Cowboys have made some much-needed schematic changes over the past few weeks. They have increased their passing rate on early downs with a very efficient quick passing attack that has gotten Dak Prescott into an insane rhythm. Prescott, who ranks No. 1 in EPA among all quarterbacks over the past three weeks, has also started to use his legs more. After logging only 12 total rush attempts over the first five games, he has run it 11 times over the past two.
Additionally, Dallas has incorporated different pre-snap motion types, which has kept opposing defenses on their toes. Those are all good signs ahead of a matchup against a Philadelphia defense that won't give up much on the ground, but can be exploited with a quick passing attack.
I also expect to see CeeDee Lamb utilized heavily in the slot, which could cause major issues for a Philly defense that doesn't have a true slot corner right now with Avonte Maddox on IR. I expect Prescott to have another big game against his biggest rival that ranks 23rd in Pass Defense DVOA.
I do have some concerns about the Dallas defense defending the run if the Eagles decide to go with a heavy power-rushing attack, while A.J. Brown, who has destroyed man coverage all season, could feast against a Cowboys defense that uses a ton of man coverage. However, I'm not convinced Jalen Hurts is fully healthy at the moment, which limits his legs, which are a huge component to this dangerous Philly offense.
Lastly, the Eagles have been extremely inconsistent all season, as they adjust to new coordinators. Yes, they have started 7-1, but they have gone 4-1 in one-possession games and rank third in the top three in our Luck Rankings. They beat the Patriots and Vikings by a combined 11 points due in large part to a 6-2 turnover edge. They also beat the Commanders twice in two hard-fought battles that went right down to the wire. Philly did have a very impressive performance over the Dolphins, but it also lost to Zach Wilson and the Jets.
This game is obviously super important for both clubs in the loaded AFC playoff race, especially when you consider neither enters the week in first place in their respective divisions that they entered the season as favorites to take down. There are massive implications on multiple fronts to say the least.
Last year, these two teams featured two of the most complete rosters in the NFL. However, that's not necessarily the case in 2023. The Bills and Bengals still have two of the league's top offenses, led by Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, but the defenses have certainly taken a step back.
Cincy lost both of its super reliable starting safeties in the offseason and the replacements have really struggled. The Bengals also don't have an elite group of cornerbacks and lack depth along the defensive line, leaving too much of the workload up to Trey Hendrickson and DJ Reader. Outside of those two, there's not much to get excited about on this side of the ball even with a very good coordinator in Lou Anarumo, who can only work so much magic.
As a result, the Bengals defense ranks 18th in EPA per Play and 26th in Success Rate. Over their past two games, they only allowed the Seahawks and 49ers to score 17 points apiece. However, they benefited from extremely good fortune in the red zone and turnover departments. Despite two massive victories in those games to turn their season around, they actually got out-gained by over 200 total yards (844-614).
Prior to those two games, they allowed the anemic Tennessee offense to rack up 400 yards and 27 points, while Arizona even got to 20. They also allowed their first two opponents to get to 24 and 27 with only one real good effort on the season in a must-win game at home in prime-time against the Rams.
Regarding Buffalo, coming into the season, it boasted one of the best stop units on paper in the entire league. However, key injuries to defensive tackle DaQuon Jones (who was playing at an All-Pro level), invaluable linebacker and team leader Matt Milano, and shutdown cornerback Tre White have caused this defense to fall off a cliff.
Losing three of your best players on defense is hard enough, but the significant drop-off to the replacements really makes matters worse. As a result, Buffalo traded for Green Bay cornerback Rasul Douglas. Buffalo still has some plus pass rushers that can get after the quarterback and two reliable veteran safeties (although neither is getting any younger), but the rest of the unit is pretty underwhelming.
It's also worth noting that the Bills have benefited from the easiest schedule of opposing offenses to date. Since losing those three key cogs to injury, Buffalo has faced the Giants, Bucs and Patriots.
Ultimately, I expect fireworks on Sunday night, which is why I bet the over (good up to 50.5) despite primetime unders apparently being free money these days (60-29 over the past two seasons). With Burrow finally appearing 100% back to full health, both offenses have distinct advantages against defenses that have taken a major step back in 2023.
