NFL Wild Card Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Welcome to the playoffs! For the 34th consecutive season — every season since 1990 — at least four teams have qualified for the playoffs after failing to make it the year prior. Not only that, the Texans and Browns pulled off a worst-to-first division playoff run this year. In 25 of the past 28 seasons, at least one team has made the playoffs the season after finishing in last or tied for last place.

If this year's race feels odd, well its the first playoffs without Tom Brady or Peyton Manning since 1998-99.

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to the Wild Card version of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Jan. 14, 4 p.m. ET. 

Big Ticket

Two Left

The Texans (200-1) and Buccaneers (100-1) are the 30th and 31st teams to enter the playoffs with 100-1 odds or higher entering the season since the schedule moved to 16+ games in 1978.

Here are how those teams performed:

• One team won the Super Bowl (1999 Rams)
• One team lost in the Super Bowl (2021 Bengals)
• Three teams lost in Conf. Championship (2017 JAC, 1983 SEA, 1979 TB)
• Eight lost in the Divisional Round
• Sixteen Lost in Wild Card Round

The Texans are the seventh team listed at 200-1 or higher in the preseason to make the playoffs. The four previous 200-1 long shots all lost in the Wild Card round in the last 40 years.

Opening Act

Rocky Start

This weekend we have some first time playoff quarterbacks in action. QBs making their first playoff start vs QBs who have playoff experience are 17-35-1 ATS (32.7%) and 17-36 SU since 2002.

Would apply to first four games this postseason:

• C.J. Stroud vs Joe Flacco
• Tua Tagovailoa vs Patrick Mahomes
• Mason Rudolph vs Josh Allen
• Jordan Love vs Dak Prescott

Rough Road

Rookies in NFL Playoffs

CJ Stroud and DeMeco Ryans are the first rookie QB-coach duo to make the playoffs since Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano in 2012.

Teams to make the playoffs with a rookie QB and a first-year head coach since the merger:

2023 Texans: CJ Stroud/DeMeco Ryans
2012 Colts: Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano – L, WC
2009 Jets: Mark Sanchez/Rex Ryan – L, CC
2008 Falcons: Matt Ryan/Mike Smith – L, WC
2008 Ravens: Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh – L, CC

• Since 1990, rookie QBs are 11-18 SU in the playoffs, including 4-11 SU over the last decade. Rookie QBs are 5-7-1 ATS on Wild Card Weekend in the last 20 years.
• Rookies to throw for 3,000+ pass yards: 23 in total. One have won a playoff game: Russell Wilson in 2012. 15 missed the playoffs. Six lost their first playoff game.
• CJ Stroud is the fourth rookie QB to face the No. 1 defense in the playoffs. Previous three QBs went 0-3 SU.

First Time

Long Time

Lions (11-5) and Browns (11-5) both have 11+ wins in the same season for the first time in NFL history.

Last NFL playoff game as a favorite:
+ Browns — Jan. 1, 1995 vs. Patriots
+ Lions — Dec. 30, 1995 at Eagles

CLE & DET have never been playoff favorites in the same season before this year.

Longest Droughts Without Being Favored in a Playoff Game
1994 – Browns (four games)
1995 – Lions (five games)
2002 – Raiders (two games)
2002 – Jets (10 games*)
* Most playoff games played since being favored by any team (NYG, 6 is 2nd).

Total Playoff Wins…
10: Joe Flacco (10-5 SU)
10: Browns last 70 years (10-19 SU)

Since 1960, Lions have been favorites in the playoffs four times. They are 1-3 SU/ATS, with their only win coming at home on Jan. 5, 1992 against the Cowboys, 38-6 as a 1-pt favorite. Browns are 4-3 SU as favorites in the playoffs since 1960.

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Terrible Luck

A Gold Mine

T.J. Watt has been ruled out for the Steelers.

• Over the past two seasons, Steelers are 18-9 SU/ATS w/ TJ Watt, 1-6 SU w/o him (2-4-1 ATS).
• They’ve played without him for just 11 games. Pittsburgh is 1-10 SU, 4-6-1 ATS in those games. They are 69-36-2 SU, 58-48-1 ATS with Watt.

If Pittsburgh can beat Buffalo as a 10-point dog or higher, it would be the biggest playoff upset since Titans (+10) over Ravens in 2020. At +10.5 or higher, it would be the Giants (+12.5) Super Bowl win over the Patriots in 2008. Either way, a Steelers win would be Pittsburgh’s biggest playoff upset in history.

One more angle: Mike Tomlin road unders. They are 83-61-1 (57.6%) as coach of the Steelers, best of any coach last 20 years. It is 58-27-1 (68.2%) last decade.

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Double Trouble

Circling The Trend

Josh Allen has lost seven consecutive games against the spread as a double-digit favorite dating back to October of 2022. His last cover as a double-digit favorite? A 38-3 win at home vs. the Steelers as 14-point favorites.

The Bills are currently 10-point favorites at home vs. Steelers … the over/under is set at 35. This would be the lowest O/U in a game with a double-digit spread in the last 35 years and the lowest O/U in any playoff game since Broncos-Steelers in 2012 (34).

Pack is Back?

The Cheese

A win in Dallas would be Green Bay’s second-biggest playoff upset since 1960 behind their win in San Francisco in 1996.

Biggest Packers Playoff Upsets
+10 — 1996 at 49ers
+5.5 — 2017 at Cowboys

For Jordan Love, a win means he would join an exclusive list of QBs to win as a 7-point dog or higher in their first playoff start. Ten have done it in the Super Bowl era, last two being Marcus Mariota in 2018 and Tim Tebow in 2012.

Much has been made about the Packers' success without Aaron Rodgers this year. Among teams that have lost a QB who ranks top-10 all-time in wins (Tom Brady to Fran Tarkenton), the 2023 Packers and 2000 Dolphins (after Dan Marino) are only two teams to make playoffs the following season.

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Death To Dallas

Not Regular

The playoffs have been a tough ride in Dallas …
+ Since 1997, the Cowboys are a putrid 3-12-1 ATS in playoffs.
+ Dak Prescott is 1-5 ATS in his career in the playoffs. He’s 85th of 88 QBs ATS last 20 years.

Dead Dog

L.A. Role

Matthew Stafford has historically struggled as an underdog. Stafford is 29-74 SU as an underdog in his career, including 1-9 SU last two seasons.

A $100 bettor is down $2,646 last 20 years, worst in the NFL.

As an underdog at night, Stafford is 4-17 SU, 7-13-1 ATS Of 192 QBs to make a start at night as an underdog, Stafford’s 7-13-1 ATS mark is second worst in the NFL

King Goff

Cash Cow

The Rams-Lions game will be played indoors — great for Jared Goff. Overall, Goff has been the best QB ATS for some time now, but that split looks much different indoors compared to outdoors.

Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor.
+ Indoor: 35-16 ATS (25-8 ATS last three seasons)
+ Outdoor: 34-35-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in Nov. or earlier | 9-15-1 ATS in Dec./Jan.)

Most profitable QB against the spread…
+ Since 2022: Jared Goff (24-10 ATS)
+ Since 2021: Jared Goff (33-15 ATS)
+ Since 2020: Jared Goff (41-23 ATS)
+ Since 2019: Jared Goff (51-28-1 ATS)
+ Since 2018: Jared Goff (60-37-2 ATS)
+ Since 2017: Jared Goff (69-44-2 ATS)

Crawling In

Phixing Philly?

The Eagles have lost six consecutive games ATS entering the playoffs — their longest ATS losing streak since 2012 (also six). The last time the Eagles had a longer ATS losing steak was in 1994, when they lost eight consecutive games SU/ATS.

Eagles are the first team to lose at least six straight games against the spread entering the playoffs since the 2002 49ers, who lost eight straight ATS entering the playoffs. They won their Wild Card game against the Giants, 39-38 as 3-point favorites – failing to cover for the ninth straight game, before losing by 25 in the Divisional Round to the Buccaneers.

The Eagles are the third team in NFL history to start a season 10-1 or better and then lose four of their next five games. 1986 Jets (Lost DIV) & 2020 Steelers (Lost WC).

The Ups & Downs

Baker Experience

Baker Mayfield is 15-25-1 ATS at home in his career (3-5 ATS with Bucs). He’s never finished a season above .500 ATS at home – He’s ranked 117th of 119 QBs since he entered the league.

On the other side: Entering this season, Baker Mayfield became the fifth QB to start Week 1 for three different teams in consecutive years. The only QB of the five aside from Mayfield to make the playoffs after that first stint? Brett Favre with the Vikings in 2009, who won one playoff game and lost in the conference championship game.

Browns at Texans | Saturday, Jan. 13

4:30pm ET | NBC

CLE -2 | 45

Browns

• This is a rematch from this season: Browns won 36-22 in Houston.
• QBs making  their first playoff start vs QBs who have playoff experience are 17-35-1 ATS (32.7%) and 17-36 SU since 2002.

Would apply to first four games this postseason

• C.J Stroud vs Joe Flacco
• Tua Tagovailoa vs Patrick Mahomes
• Mason Rudolph vs Josh Allen
• Jordan Love vs Dak Prescott

• Teams to make the playoffs with a rookie QB and a first-year head coach since the merger:

2023 Texans: CJ Stroud/DeMeco Ryans
2012 Colts: Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano
2009 Jets: Mark Sanchez/Rex Ryan
2008 Falcons: Matt Ryan/Mike Smith
2008 Ravens: Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh

• Team status: 11-6 SU, 11-6 ATS.
  Browns haven’t won 12 games in a season since 1986 (only time since 1950)
  Browns best ATS finish since going 12-4 ATS in 2007
• The Browns have never seen the type of success this season with the same type of expectations. The 2023 Browns have their most straight up wins in a season with a win total of nine or more since moving to Cleveland in 1999 (11 this year, prev high was 8 in 2021) and their most wins in a season with 40-1 preseason Super Bowl odds or shorter (9 was their record in 2002).
• Saturday will mark the first time the Browns are favored in a playoff game since the 1994 Wild Card round vs Patriots. Bill Belichick was the Browns head coach.
• The AFC North as a division had a combined 40 in win totals in the preseason – highest mark in NFL history. All four teams in the division also finished above .500 – first time since 1935.
• Playoff history comparison…
  Flacco Playoffs: 10-5 SU (11-4 ATS)
  Browns Playoffs last 70 years: 10-19 SU
• Flacco has five straight games with 2+ TDs
  (Longest streak for a Browns QB since weeks 7-11 in 2018)
• Flacco has four straight 300 yard passing games
  (first Browns QB to do so in the post ‘99 era)
• Browns are first team in NFL history to win 10+ games in a season with four different QBs each earning a win
  Browns just became the first NFL team in over 35 years to start five QBs in a single season. (Deshaun Watson, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, PJ Walker, Joe Flacco, Jeff Driskel)
• Cleveland turned the ball over more than any team this season, and the Browns have the highest sacks plus turnovers of any playoff team at 4.82 per game.
• Browns are 12-5 to the team total over – the most team total overs by any team this season.
  Browns are 21-12-1 to their team total over the last two seasons
• Browns defense
  125 points allowed at home in nine games (13.9, lowest NFL)
  237 points allowed on road in eight games (29.6, T-highest NFL)
• Recent pts allowed on road: 31, 22, 36, 29, 31, 20, 38
• Browns road overs are 8-0 this season and are 9-0 dating back to last season. Road overs 20-14 under Stefanski.
• Joe Flacco now has 13 passing TDs this season in 20 quarters.
  Josh Dobbs has 13 pass TD in 13 games.
  Bryce Young has 11 pass TD in 16 games.
  Desmond Ridder has 12 pass TD and 12 interceptions in 15 games.
• Flacco’s last 4 games: 1,362 pass yds, 11 TD, 4-0 SU
  How good of a run has Flacco been on? Since 2020, here are QBs to have 1,362+ pass yds, 11+ TD and be 4-0 SU in a four-game span: Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Brady.
• With Deshaun Watson out for the season, it's another week of a backup QB in Cleveland.
  Browns will start a backup QB for the 63rd time in the last decade this week. They are 23-39 SU, 30-31-1 ATS in those games.
  Browns have actually done a good job in these games lately going 8-8 SU and 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 games with a backup.
  Under Stefanski, Browns are 12-13 SU, 14-10-1 ATS with a backup QB.
• Here is how Browns QBs stack up this season (ranks min. 50 QB plays; of 60 QBs)
  Watson: 30th EPA/play, 40th success rate, 47th comp%
  Flacco: 32nd EPA/play, 37th success rate, 50th comp%
  DTR: 59th EPA/play, 55th success rate, 57th comp%
  Walker: 60th EPA/play, 56th success rate, 60th comp%
• Browns QBs SU, ATS this season
  Watson: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
  Flacco: 4-1 SU/ATS
  Walker: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS
  Thompson-Robinson: 1-2 SU/ATS
  Driskel: 0-1 SU/ATS
• Stefanski with Browns
  Favorite: 27-10 SU, 17-20 ATS
  Dog: 10-21 SU, 16-14-1 ATS
• Stefanski is 8-1 SU on short rest. Only loss was a 2-point road loss in Green Bay.
• Stefanski has done well after Browns defense has allowed a bunch of points.
  After 24 or more: 17-12-1 ATS (8-1 ATS this season)
• Teams playing on the road on short rest, after playing on the road in their previous game are 41-71 SU, 51-56-5 ATS last 20 years. These teams are 11-15-1 ATS last three seasons and 25-35-5 ATS last decade.
  Wild Card: CLE
• Browns are 14-13-1 ATS after a loss under Stefanski.
  Browns are 15-21 SU, 16-20 ATS after a SU win under Stefanski
  Browns are 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games after a SU win.
• Browns are 12-12 SU, 8-16 ATS vs. AFC North under Kevin Stefanski. Of 148 head coaches last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is 147th.
  Stefanski is 25-18-1 ATS against non-AFC North teams.
• Flacco in his career SU/ATS…
  Home: 66-29 SU, 46-47-2 | Road/Neutral: 47-58 SU, 54-45-6 ATS
• Flacco in road games recently:
  Since 2019, Flacco is 2-7 SU, 5-4 on the road
  Flacco at home in Cleveland: 12-2 SU, 11-2-1 ATS
• Flacco regular season
  SU, ATS: 103-82 SU, 89-88-8 ATS
  Home/Road: 64-29 SU, 45-46-2 ATS at home. 39-53 SU, 44-42-6 ATS on road/neutral
  Favorite/Dog: 84-34 SU, 58-55-5 ATS as favorite. 19-48 SU, 31-33-3 ATS as dog.
• Flacco playoffs
  SU, ATS: 10-5 SU, 11-4 ATS
  Home/Road: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS at home. 8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS on road/neutral.
  Favorite/Dog: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS as favorite. 6-5 SU, 8-3 ATS as dog.
• Flacco has played 13 games in a dome – 9-4 ATS, two this year, in HOU and in LAR, 1-1.
• Longest Drought Without Division Title
  1989 – Browns
  2002 – Jets
  2002 – Raiders
  2008 – Dolphins
  2009 – Chargers

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Texans

• Team status: 10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS.
• Texans have played 10 playoff games, nine have been played outside the night window.
• Texans are up to 10 SU wins this season, that is their most in a year in the last four seasons.
  2023: 10-7 SU | 2020-22: 11-38-1 SU
• Buccaneers were tied for the 4th-worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 100-1 entering the season and now they join the Texans (200-1) as the two longshots left in the field.
  They are the 30th and 31st teams to enter the playoffs with 100-1 odds or higher entering the season since the schedule moved to 16+ games in 1978.
  One won the Super Bowl (1999 Rams)
  One lost in the Super Bowl (2021 Bengals)
  Three lost in Conf. Championship (2017 JAC, 1983 SEA, 1979 TB)
  Eight Lost in Divisional
  16 Lost in Wild Card
• Texans are the seventh team listed at 200-1 or higher in the preseason to make the playoffs since 16+ game schedule in 1978.

Longest Odds To Win Super Bowl for a Playoff Team — Since 1978 (16+ Game Schedule)

• Texans didn’t play in primetime this season prior to week 18 – they had all 16 games all starting at 1pm EST entering this week. The only such team this season.
• An 0-2 team has made the playoffs in eight of the past 11 seasons now. Texans were the lone team this season.
• Last rookie head coach and quarterback combo to make it to the playoffs? Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck with Colts in 2012.
  2012 Colts lost in Wild Card 24-9 at the Ravens (against Joe Flacco).
  FWIW: No rookie starting quarterback has ever made the Super Bowl, let alone won it.
• Since 1990, rookie QBs are 11-18 SU in the playoffs, including 4-11 SU over the last decade.
• Texans home vs. road this season
  Home: 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS
  Road: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS
• Texans vs. non-AFC South teams this season: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS
  Recently: 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS in last six
• Stroud vs. teams outside the AFC South: 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS
• Texans as home dogs this season: 2-2 SU/ATS
• Texans after allowing 30+ points this season: 28+ pts: 4-0 SU/ATS
  Texans after allowing 20 points or less: 3-6 SU/ATS
• Texans this season with CJ Stroud vs. Case Keenum
  Stroud: 9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS
  Keenum: 1-1 SU/ATS
• Dolphins have a takeaway in 11 straight games — longest active streak among all teams. Second-longest is the Texans with 10 straight games.
• Home teams who missed the playoffs the year prior are 30-49 ATS in the playoffs over the last 20 years.
  Wild Card: HOU, DET
• Stroud vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or less: 4-3 SU/ATS
• CJ Stroud is the first rookie in the Super Bowl era to lead the league in both passing yards per game (274) and TD-INT ratio (23-5)
• C.J. Stroud is the youngest player (22 years, 96 days) in NFL history to lead the league in pass TD-INT ratio in a season. The previous youngest was Arnie Herber (22 years, 260 days) for the 1932 Packers. He had 9 pass TD and 9 INT.
• Stroud’s season…
• Third most passing yds for a rookie (Luck 4,374, Herbert 4,336)
• Fourth rookie ever with a 100 or better passer rating (Prescott 104.9, R. Griffin III 102.4, R. Wilson 100.0)
• Rookies to throw for 3,000+ pass yards: 23 in total. One has won a playoff game: Russell Wilson in 2012. 15 missed the playoffs. Six lost their first playoff game.
• Stroud has made 15 starts in his NFL career. He’s 5-2 ATS as an underdog and 3-5 ATS as a favorite.
  He’s excelled in the first half, going 10-5 1H ATS this season.
  In the 1H, Stroud is 6-1 ATS as a dog, 4-4 ATS as a favorite
  Stroud vs. AFC South: 3-2 SU/ATS
• CJ Stroud is fourth rookie QB to face the No. 1 defense. Previous three QBs went 0-3 SU.
• Stroud changes the Ohio State narrative…
  == Stroud is the first NFL quarterback from Ohio State to eclipse 3,000 passing yards in a season (3,631). The previous high was Mike Tomczak with 2,767 yards (16 games) in 1996.
  == Four Ohio State QBs have been taken in the first round: Justin Fields, Dwayne Haskins, Art Schlister & CJ Stroud. Entering 2023, they were 8-36 SU as a starter in the NFL. Stroud this season has nine wins himself.
  == 19 Ohio State QBs have been taken in the NFL or Supplemental Draft – one has been selected to the Pro Bowl so far – Tom Tupa in 1999 for Jets (didn’t draft him)
  == Fields this season became the only Ohio State QB to be the primary starter for 2 or more seasons in the NFL.
  == Stroud is 9-6 SU this season, his first year in the league. QBs out of Ohio State are a combined now 50-99 SU in the NFL (10 total QBs). The most wins SU in a single season by any Ohio State QB is now nine, set by Stroud over the five by Kent Graham, done twice. Only one other OSU QB is over .500 SU for his NFL career. Craig Krenzel, at 3-2 SU.
  == Stroud becomes just the 16th full-time starting rookie QB to make the playoffs in the Super Bowl Era and the first ever from Ohio State.

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Dolphins at Chiefs | Saturday, Jan. 13

8:00pm ET | Peacock

KC -4.5 | 43.5

Dolphins

• QBs making first playoff start vs QBs who have playoff experience are 17-35-1 ATS (32.7%) and 17-36 SU since 2002.

Would apply to first four games this postseason

• C.J Stroud vs Joe Flacco
• Tua Tagovailoa vs Patrick Mahomes
• Mason Rudolph vs Josh Allen
• Jordan Love vs Dak Prescott

• Team status: 11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS.
• Dolphins entered the season with 20-1 Super Bowl odds, their lowest since 2015 and their win total of 9.5 was their lowest since 2004.
• Longest Drought Without Division Title
  1989 – Browns
  2002 – Jets
  2002 – Raiders
  2008 – Dolphins
  2009 – Chargers
• Dolphins will travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs  Saturday night — Miami is 8-19 SU last 20 years in sub 40-degree weather.
• Tua Tagovailoa's coldest starts in NFL or college
  29 degrees: Dec. 17, 2022 at Bills (L, 32-29)
  36 degrees: Jan. 3, 2021 at Bills (L, 56-26)
  37 degrees: Jan. 2, 2022 at Titans (L, 34-3)
• How have the Dolphins performed in cold temperatures?
  Under 50 degrees: 15-42 SU (26%) last 20 years (2-19 SU last 21 games)
  Under 40 degrees: 8-19 SU (30%) last 20 years (lost nine straight)
• This will be Tua’s 11th start at night. He’s 4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS (3-4 ATS on road, 0-3 ATS at home).
  Tua has lost all four of his night starts as an underdog, all on the road (PHI, BUF, CIN) prior to week 18 loss vs BUF at home.
• For the Dolphins to get to the Super Bowl now, they'd have to win at Kansas City, then win at Baltimore, then win at Buffalo.
• Tua has played in 10 night games, two morning games and this year’s Black Friday game – a total of 13 “primetime” or standalone games. He is 5-8 SU, 4-9 ATS in those games.
• Tua off a SU loss: 7-7 SU, 6-7-1 ATS
  Off a SU loss at home: 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS (0-4 SU, 1-2-1 ATS road/neutral)
• Tyreek Hill ended with 119 rec, 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns
  Tyreek was +950 to lead NFL in receiving yards entering this year (third-top choice).
  Tyreek was +1400 to lead NFL in receiving TDs entering this year (eighth-top choice).
  Hill won receiving yards and dead heat rec. TDs
• Here are most receiving yard seasons and their playoff results.

• When Tua faces an opposing offense averaging 21 PPG or less, he is 16-6 SU, including 15-2 SU in his last 17 in this spot (he began his career 1-4 SU in this spot).
  When he faces an offense avg. more than 21 PPG: 13-13 SU
• Since 2021, Dolphins are 5-13 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 19-8 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
  After Miami lost to the Bills, they are now 3-9 SU since the start of last season vs. teams over .500 SU.
• Dolphins are 4-9 SU in December or later since start of last year.
  Most of the issues has been on the road. They are 1-1 SU on road in Dec. this year, but are 4-14 SU on road in Dec or later since 2017 and 6-17 SU since 2015.
  Dolphins are 2-1 SU at home in December in 2023. Miami hasn’t finished below .500 SU at home in December or later since 2014.
  Last 20 years, Dolphins are 33-26 SU at home in December or later and 18-30 SU on the road.
• Tua vs. above .500 SU teams career: 8-8-1 ATS
  When he’s at home: 5-1 ATS
  When he’s on road/neutral: 3-7-1 ATS
  Tua is now 2-9 straight up and 3-7-1 against the spread, road/neutral vs. "winning" teams — he is failing to cover the spread by 11.8 PPG.
• Tua prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 18-8 ATS at home and 11-13-1 ATS away from home in his career.
  Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015
  Miami is 39-23-3 ATS since 2016 at home – best home team ATS in that span
• Tua by time zone: 26-13-1 ATS in EST | 3-6 ATS all other time zones
• The Dolphins haven't proven it against top competition, just 1-5 against playoff teams. Only the Giants and Commanders had a worse point differential than Miami (-91) against playoff opponents.
• Dolphins are avg. 29.2 PPG this season.
  In a teams 10th game or later, teams who avg. 30 PPG or more playing on the road/neutral are 53-75-5 ATS (41.4%).
  At home they are 81-86-3 (48.5%)
• Dolphins have a takeaway in eleven straight games — longest active streak among all teams. 2nd-longest is the Texans with 10 straight games.
• The 49ers have replaced the Dolphins in the yards/play race.
  Highest YPP, Single Season All-Time.
• 16 teams have finished with 6.4 YPP or higher. Two have won the Super Bowl, 1999 Rams and 2022 Chiefs.
  Dolphins & 49ers finished with 6.48 YPP or higher – would be highest for a SB champ.

• Tua vs. teams on short rest: 2-7 SU, 5-4 ATS
• Dolphins are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games as a road dog dating back to last season and Tua has lost eight of his last 10 starts as a road underdog.
• Tua Tagovailoa faces Super Bowl-winning head coach Andy Reid for the third time this week.
  He’s 13-3 SU in his career. vs. Super Bowl-winning head coaches
  23: BAL (L), DAL, KC (L), NE X2, DEN | 22: PIT, BAL, NE | 21: NE X2, NO | 20: OAK, NE, KC (L), LAR
  His only losses vs Super Bowl winning head coach? 2023 vs. Andy Reid and John Harbaugh, 2020 vs. Andy Reid.
• For the Dolphins to get to the Super Bowl now, they'd have to win at Kansas City, then win at Baltimore, then win at Buffalo potentially.

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Chiefs

• Team status: 11-6 SU, 9-7-1 ATS.
  Under win total of 11.5. KC was one of three teams with double-digit win total to be under their win total (CIN, PHI).
  Chiefs are now 9-2 to their win total over in the last 11 years.
  Andy Reid win total results with KC/PHI: 9-2 over w/ KC | 9-4-1 over w/ PHI (18-6-1 overall to over)
• Chiefs have now won the AFC West eight consecutive years – longest active division streak across four major sports – The longest run of division titles belongs to the New England Patriots with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019.
• Chiefs were the seventh preseason Super Bowl odds favorite to lose outright in Week 1 in the Wild Card era (since 1990) and the first to do since the Patriots in 2017.
  Six of seven still made playoffs (2002 Rams), two have made the SB (2017 NE, 1993 DAL) and one won it all (1993 DAL).
• The Chiefs entered the regular season as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +650.
  In the Wild Card era, since 1990 – the preseason SB favorite has won title five times (18, 16 NE, 06 IND, 94 SF, 93 DAL).
  11 times they lost in Super Bowl, two lost in conference championship, seven in divisional round, five in wild card, three missed playoffs
• When both teams are on short rest, the first half over is 65-48-3 (58%) in the last five years (2019), including 15-8 this season.
  Wild Card: MIA/KC
• Since 2020, teams to come off a road game in PST – SF, LV, LAR, LAC, SEA – also on short rest, are 9-17 SU. This would be first playoff game in this spot.
• When a defense is rolling and the team is good, time to fade. Teams over .500 SU, allowing 20 pts or less in four straight games, who are listed as the favorite, are 128-157-7 ATS (44.9%) last 20 years.
  Wild Card: KC
• Tough to play off a party city. Last five years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 105-146-8 ATS (41.8%). They are 2-3 SU/ATS in the playoffs.
  Wild Card: KC, BUF
• Chiefs are in a tough spot this week.
  Fade teams off a SU win as an underdog, when they are on short rest for their next game. They are 91-123-10 ATS (43%) last 20 years.
  Wild Card: KC
• Mahomes in cold starts career.
  Under 40 degrees: 25-6 SU, 18-12-1 ATS
  Under 35 degrees: 14-4 SU, 12-6 ATS
  32 degrees or colder: 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS
  Under 30 degrees: 6-3 SU/ATS
• Chiefs defense in Mahomes’ career (EPA/play)
  2023: sixth | 2022: 15th | 2021: 23rd | 2020: 19th | 2019: 18th | 2018: 28th
• Favored streak with Mahomes as QB. He was underdog in Super Bowl last year. Favored in previous 13 starts.
  In playoffs: 9-2 SU as a favorite in last 11
• Chiefs second half unders have been the play…
  Second half unders are 15-2 in KC games this year
  4th quarter unders are 16-1 in KC games this year
• How does Mahomes perform on extended rest, given he sat out Week 18.
  24-6 SU, 15-14-1 ATS
• Mahomes is 36-22-1 to the under in his home starts. 16-3 to the under at home over the last two seasons, the most profitable home QB to under.
  Mahomes O/U in road starts: 32-19 to the over in road starts
• Mahomes has played in 14 playoff games, 31 regular season night games, one morning game, two early Monday games, two Saturday games – a total of 50 “primetime” games. He is 36-14 SU, 27-22-1 ATS in those games.
• Mahomes is 12-7 ATS when the Chiefs are not listed as the public side and 45-42-3 ATS when he is listed as the public side.
• Mahomes starts by point spread
  Favorite: 100 (49-49-2 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
  Home: 27-29-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 30-21-2 ATS
  1p ET: 14-17-2 ATS | After 1p slate: 42-33-1 ATS
  -10 or higher: 27 (11-14-2 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 83 (46-36-1 ATS)
  -3 or less/or dog: 29 (20-8-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 81 (37-42-2 ATS)
• Mahomes regular season
  SU, ATS: 74-22 SU, 48-45-3 ATS
  Home/Road: 35-11 SU, 20-25-1 at home, 39-11 SU, 28-20-2 road/neutral
  Favorite/Dog: 68-19 SU, 41-44-2 as favorite, 6-3 SU, 7-1-1 ATS as dog
  Mahomes playoffs
  SU, ATS: 11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS
  Home/Road: 9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS at home. 2-1 SU/ATS neutral
  Favorite/Dog: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS as favorite. 1-0 SU/ATS as dog.
• Mahomes is 39-9 SU in November and December in his career (51-12 SU in Nov, Dec & Jan).
• Opposing teams on a road trip going to Kansas City are 2-15 SU (11.7%) with Mahomes on the other side. Teams are 23-70 (24.7%) vs. Mahomes in all other spots.
• Mahomes has had 39 passes dropped so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, seventh-most in the NFL.
• Kelce playoff stats.
  133 catches for 1,548 yards and 16 touchdowns in 18 games
  Already leads all tight ends in playoff yards, receptions, touchdowns and yards per game.
  Tied for fourth all-time in GP at 18
  Billy Joe Dupree and Gronk tied for first at 22 followed by Brent Jones with 21
• When the Chiefs defense allows more than 20 pts this season, KC is 0-4 SU/ATS, against the Lions, Broncos, Eagles and Packers. KC is 11-2 SU, 9-3-1 ATS when their defense allows 20 points or less.
• Chiefs are 7-10 against the fourth quarter spread this season and 21-36 4Q ATS the last three seasons.

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Steelers at Bills | Monday, Jan. 15

4:30pm ET | CBS

BUF -10 | 37.5

Steelers

• Team status: 10-7 SU, 10-7 ATS.
  20 consecutive non-losing seasons (DAL has record; 21, 1965-85 under Landry).
  17 under Tomlin to begin coaching career (NFL record)
• Steelers were 66-1 to win the Super Bowl entering this season, their second-longest odds to win it all in the last 20 years.
  Longest Steelers Odds Win Super Bowl Since Merger (Wins)
  80-1 – 2022 (9) – Miss
  75-1 – 2000 (9) – Miss
  75-1 – 1989 (9) – L. Div (W WC game)
  66-1 – 2023 (10)
• Steelers offensive comparison.
  Matt Canada in Pittsburgh: 45 games; zero games with 400 yards of offense; two games with 30 points.
  The Steelers played 45 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense.
  Eddie Faulkner comparison: Steelers are 20th in EPA/play offense since firing Canada after Week 11, they were 25th in the first 11 weeks. Two games of 400 yards or more and two games of 30+ points.
• The AFC North as a division had a combined 40 in win totals in the preseason – highest mark in NFL history. All four teams in the division also finished above .500 – first time since 1935.
• Steelers offense recently…
  Steelers with Canada: 16.6 PPG – 6-4 SU record
  Pittsburgh since firing Canada: 19.7 PPG – 4-3 SU record
• Mason Rudolph SU/ATS: 8-4-1 SU and 10-3 ATS
  At home: 5-1-1 SU, 6-2 ATS | On road: 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS
  Most profitable QB under Tomlin ATS
• Mike Tomlin road unders. They are 83-61-1 (57.6%) as coach of the Steelers, best of any coach last 20 years. It is 58-27-1 (68.2%) last decade.
• Largest underdog under Mike Tomlin: As an underdog of 8 or more, Tomlin is 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS.
  Biggest dog in playoffs: Tomlin has been a dog of 7 points or more in the playoffs twice.
  +11.5 vs Chiefs in 2022: (L, 42-21)
  +7 vs Broncos in 2016: (L,23-16)
• Steelers are playing their third straight road game in Buffalo this weekend.
  3-1 SU, 1-1-2 ATS under Tomlin on 3rd road game or later of a road trip.
  Teams on third game or later of road trip (reg + post): 44-67 SU (40%), 52-57-2 ATS (48%) last 20 years. In playoffs: 11-25 SU (30.6%), 16-18-2 ATS (47%)
• Tomlin is 48-23-2 ATS as an underdog from Week 5 forward, including 40-33 SU on the moneyline. His ATS mark is the most profitable of all 149 coaches in the last 20 years.
• Tomlin as an underdog in regular season vs. playoffs.
  Regular season: 48-43 SU, 57-31-3 ATS
  Playoffs: 1-5 SU, 2-3-1 ATS
• Rest has been good for Tomlin. On extended prep, Steelers are 15-6-1 ATS since 2018, making Tomlin the best coach in the NFL ATS in that span.
  4-1 ATS this season and 10-3 ATS last three seasons
• Rudolph on extended rest: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS
• Steelers are 49-48 SU, 59-34-4 ATS as an underdog under Tomlin
  SU he’s second-most profitable last 20 years behind Tom Cable (+$2,743)
  ATS he’s most profitable last 20 years (+$2,238)
  Steelers haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog since 2016 and it's only happened twice under Tomlin.
  PIT is 6-4 SU, ATS as an underdog in 2023.
• Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 40-26-3 ATS.
  Steelers under Tomlin without Big Ben or Pickett: 25-17-3 ATS
• Tomlin is 38-21-2 ATS as an underdog when facing above .500 SU teams – best in NFL last 20 years. In that spot vs. AFC? 27-15-2 ATS for Tomlin.
• Mason Rudolph has made 13 career starts. He's had multiple TD passes six times.
  Kenny Pickett has made 24 career starts. He's had multiple TD passes once.
• The Steelers are 13-2 in their last 15 one-score games and 15-3 over their last 18 one-score games. Even dating back to 2021, Pittsburgh is 24-9-1 (72%) in one-score games. Second-best is Eagles at 65%. Top six teams in one-score games since 2021 all in playoffs this year: PIT, PHI, KC, TB, LAR, DAL
• Steelers are 33-51-1 1H ATS last five seasons under Tomlin, making him worst coach 1H ATS in that span, including 5-12 in 2023.
• Over the last two seasons, Steelers are 18-9 SU/ATS w/ TJ Watt, 1-6 SU w/o him (2-4-1 ATS).
• Since T.J. Watt’s first game in 2017, Steelers are 70-46-2 SU, 62-54-2 ATS.
  They’ve played without him for just 11 games. Pittsburgh is 1-10 SU, 4-6-1 ATS in those games.
  Which means they are 69-36-2 SU, 58-48-1 ATS with Watt.
• Over .500 SU teams with a negative avg. SU point differential in November or later are 151-184-14 ATS (45.1%) last 20 years. These teams are 10-12-1 ATS in playoffs.
  Wild Card: PIT
• "Bet dogs in low total games…" == NFL underdogs in games w/ total below 42 are 195-138-9 ATS (59%) since 2018 & 109-84–6 ATS (57%) last two years.
  Wild Card: PIT
• Without Big Ben, Mike Tomlin is now 38-30-1 straight up (56%) and 40-26-3 against the spread (61%) with the Steelers.
  Here are those QBs: Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, Dennis Dixon, Michael Vick, Byron Leftwich, Delvin Hodges, Charlie Batch, Mitch Trubisky and Landry Jones

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Bills

• Team status: 11-6 SU, 7-10 ATS.
  Bills ended up going over their win total and winning the AFC East in Week 18. They are over their win total in 6 of the last 7 years.
  It is the third straight year with a double-digit win total (none before that since 1992).
  Bills clinch the AFC East for the fourth consecutive season. First time Bills have done that since 1988-1991.
• Bills have won five games in a row SU.
  3-1 SU/ATS after winning five straight last 20 years
  2-1 SU/ATS on the road
• Teams with recent playoff experience, playing in the Wild Card round, facing a team without it, tend to have an advantage.
  When two teams play in WC round, one making playoffs year prior, while the other didn’t – the team with playoff experience is 29-14-1 ATS (67%) last 20 years.
  Wild Card: BUF, DAL
• The Bills are currently 10-point favorites at home vs. Steelers … the over/under is set at 36.5.

• Something about the AFC East. After facing the division, Allen’s not so great ATS following week.
  After facing AFC East: 13-21-1 ATS
  After facing all other teams: 37-24-4 ATS
• Bills have scored 20 pts or more in 8 straight games – the Bills record is 11 such games.
  When the Bills offense plays well, the defense tends to show up as well. 11-6 to the under this season
  Bills are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games, including 7-9 ATS in their last 16 games
  Bills 14-20-1 ATS mark since start of last year is the fifth-worst in the NFL
• As a home favorite, Allen, Bills are 34-8 SU. He’s second in the NFL in ML profitability last five years.
  As a home favorite of 7 points or more, Allen is 21-2 SU. He lost to the Colts in 2021 and the Broncos last week.
  Allen is 30-5 SU as a favorite of 7 points or more overall, including 12-1 SU off a loss.
  When Allen is favored by 3 points or more after a SU loss, he’s 16-3 SU, 10-7-2 ATS.
• Bills are 18-3 SU in their last 21 home games, including 28-6 SU in their last 34 home games.
• Rams have scored 20+ points now in seven straight games – second-longest active streak behind Bills at eight games.
  Teams to score 20+ pts in at least 5 straight games entering the playoffs is just 38-52 ATS (42%) last 20 years.
• Josh Allen career vs. Mike Tomlin: 3-1 SU/ATS
• Josh Allen has lost seven consecutive games ATS as a double-digit favorite dating back to October 2022. His last cover as a double-digit favorite? -14 at home vs. Steelers. Won 38-3.
• Josh Allen regular season
  SU, ATS: 63-30 SU, 49-35-5 ATS
  Home/Road: 34-12 SU, 23-21-2 at home. 29-18 SU, 26-18-3 ATS on road/neutral
  Favorite/Dog: 50-15 SU, 32-30-3 ATS as favorite. 13-15 SU, 17-9-2 ATS as dog.
• Josh Allen playoffs
  SU, ATS: 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS
  Home/Road: 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS at home. 0-3 SU/ATS on road/neutral.
  Favorite/Dog: 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS as favorite. 0-3 SU/ATS as dog.
• Allen as a double-digit favorite: 16-2 SU, 7-9-2 ATS
  Lost seven straight ATS but won 12 of last 13 SU
  In 6-point teaser as double-digit favorite: 11-7
• Allen in December or later: 26-12 SU, 19-17-2 ATS
  Dec. or later at home: 16-5 SU, 9-11-1
• Another game, another Josh Allen interception.
  December 19-28, 2020: last time Josh Allen didn’t have a turnover in consecutive regular season starts.
  Regular Season:
  He has 78 INT since 2018, most in NFL
  He has 59 fumbles since 2018, most in NFL.
• Allen interceptions in regular season vs. playoffs.
  Regular season: 74 interceptions in 86 games
  Playoffs: four interceptions and two fumbles lost in eight games
• Josh Allen has 67 wins in his career. 48 of those 67 wins have been by 7 points or more.
• Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career.
  Allen is 33-20-3 ATS on 7 days rest (11th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot)
  He’s 8-10-1 ATS on short rest and 7-13-1 ATS on extended rest.
• The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 59-39-3 against the second half spread. Since 2005, he’s the third-most profitable QB on the second half spread of 257 QBs.
• Josh Allen is 0-6 in overtime. The Bills as a franchise are now 3-12 SU (20%) in overtime since 2010, T-worst win pct of any team (Jaguars are 2-8).
  BUF is 0-6 SU/ATS in OT games since December, 2017.
• Least profitable QBs ATS in the playoffs over the last 20 years
  Brees 7-11 ATS, Ryan 3-7 ATS, Allen 2-6 ATS, Dak 1-5 ATS
• Tough to play off a party city. Last five years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 105-146-8 ATS (41.8%). They are 2-3 SU/ATS in the playoffs.
  Wild Card: KC, BUF

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Packers at Cowboys | Sunday, Jan. 14

4:30pm ET | FOX

DAL -7 | 50.5

Packers

• QBs making first playoff start vs QBs who have playoff experience are 17-35-1 ATS (32.7%) and 17-36 SU since 2002.

Would apply this year to first four games

• C.J. Stroud vs Joe Flacco
• Tua Tagovailoa vs Patrick Mahomes
• Mason Rudolph vs Josh Allen
• Jordan Love vs Dak Prescott

• Team status: 9-8 SU, 9-8 ATS.
• Packers were plus money (+165) to make the playoffs in the preseason for the first time since 2009 (+100) – they made the playoffs that season and this season.
• Packers were +6600 win Super Bowl in the preseason, their longest odds since being listed at 100-1 in 2006. Their win total of 7.5 was their lowest since 2007 (won 13 games).
• LaFleur is 51-37 ATS in his career as Packers coach.
• LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 20-10 ATS as a ‘dog — 12-5 with Rodgers and 8-5 with Jordan Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 31-27 ATS.
• LaFleur is now 18-2 SU, 11-9 ATS in December games.
  LaFleur is 40-28 SU in all other months. In January, LaFleur is just 6-5 SU.
• This is the ninth playoff meeting GB-DAL … four wins apiece == all eight games spread 5.5 or more
• Six of the last seven road teams have scored 20+ points in Dallas for a playoff game against the Cowboys.
• Love is 4-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU and 4-6 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU
• Love is the lone QB in NFC without playoff experience .Three QBs in AFC have none: Tua Tagovailoa, Mason Rudolph, C.J. Stroud.
• Jordan Love finishes the season with 4,159 passing yards. That would be a franchise record for the: Bears, Browns, Jets and Eagles
• Most Games with 2+ Pass TD and zero INT This Season: Jordan Love (9)
• Jordan Love is 4-6 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 4-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
• Fewest games favored in season for Packers since 1990
  2 – 1991 (0-2 ATS)
  3 – 1992 (2-1 ATS)
  5 – 2023 (2-3 ATS)
  5 – 2006 (2-3 ATS)
  5 – 2005 (1-3-1 ATS)
  6 – 1990 (2-4 ATS)
  6 – 2017 (4-2 ATS)
• Jordan Love has been streaky has an NFL QB.
  Started 4-0 ATS, 6-8 ATS since.
  Love has closed as a favorite five times in his 18 start career (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS).
• Jordan Love first half of season vs. second half.
  1st half (Wk 1-10): 16th EPA/play, 25th success rate, 38th completion%
  2nd half (Wk 11 on): 2nd EPA/play, fourth success rate, 6th completion%
• Packers have been underdogs of 7 points or more just four times since 2019. Packers lost three games straight up before getting their win on Thanksgiving over Lions (+8.5), but went 3-1 ATS.
• Despite its youth, Green Bay doesn't make many big mistakes at just 2.82 sacks plus turnovers per game, which is the best in the NFL.
• The Packers are the fifth-youngest playoff team since the merger in 1970, and youth is volatile and unpredictable. They are youngest playoff team since 1977 Bears.
• Packers special teams are terrible and rank 31st by DVOA, especially bad on punts.
• Largest underdog for Packers in a playoff game: Last 20 years, Packers have been underdogs of more than 6 points, four times. 0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS
  +8.5 vs Seahawks in 2018: L, 28-22
  +8 vs 49ers in 2020: L, 37-20
  +7 vs Cardinals in 2016: L, 26-20
  +6.5 vs Falcons in 2017: L, 44-21
• Packers QBs in first playoff start.
  Bart Starr 1960: Lost at PHI
  Scott Hunter 1972: Lost at WAS
  Lynn Dickey 1983: Won vs. STL
  Brett Favre 1994: Won at DET
  Aaron Rodgers 2010: Lost at ARI
• Packers are 7-3 ATS after playing the Vikings under LaFleur and 21-6 ATS the game after playing an NFC North foe – fourth-best mark of any head coach last 20 years

1. Belichick, 2. Reid, 3. Harbaugh, 4. LaFleur

• LaFleur home, road in his career.
  Home: 34-10 SU, 28-16 ATS
  Road: 24-18 SU, 23-19 ATS
• LaFleur in primetime games with Packers – night, international, etc .. standalone – is 23-13 SU, 21-15 ATS
• Much has been made about the Packers success without Aaron Rodgers this year. Here is a comparison to other teams after star QBs left and how they did the year after: Top-10 most wins all-time.
  Of the 11 QBs, 10 won at least six games the next year. The one that didn’t was Colts in 2011 who went 2-14 SU, but they went 11-5 SU the following year with Andrew Luck.
  Of 11 QBs, only two made the playoffs. 2023 Packers and 2000 Dolphins after Dan Marino. They won WC game and lost in the Divisional.

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Cowboys

• Team status: 12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS
  Cowboys are over their win total three straight years for first time since going over between 1990-95.
• Can the Cowboys keep it going? Last three seasons…
  After a loss SU: 12-3 ATS
  After a win SU: 20-16 ATS
• Since 1997, the Cowboys are a putrid 3-12-1 ATS in playoffs.
• Cowboys are 7-1 to their team total over this season at home. In the last four seasons, their team total over at home is 7-1, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2 == 25-9 to the over.
• Dak Precott tends to perform well as a big favorite. He’s 37-7 SU, 31-12-1 ATS as a favorite of 6 points or more
  His 31-12-1 ATS mark is second-most profitable last 20 years of 145 QBs behind just Tom Brady.
  He’s 25-4 SU, 19-9-1 ATS as a 6+ point favorite at home
• If you bet on Prescott to throw an INT in every game last season, you would be up 8.6U (most of any QB). 2nd was Aaron Rodgers at +7.2U.
  This season, you would be down 2.24 units betting a “yes” INT for Prescott.
• Ceedee Lamb is having an unreal season for the Cowboys.
  Receptions 135 — first
  Scrimmage Yards 1,862 — second (first among WRs)
  Touchdowns 12 — third
  Receiving Yards 1,749 — second
  Targets 181 — first
• Cowboys are coming off a big win. Under McCarthy, Dallas is 6-12 ATS after winning by 20 pts or more – including 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games in this spot. Last two seasons, Dallas is 5-11 ATS after winning by double-digits.
• Cowboys are 11-4 ATS at home in their last 15 games.
• Cowboys are currently 4-4 SU against teams currently with a winning record. Beating the Rams, Seahawks, Eagles and Lions .. losing to 49ers, Eagles, Bills and Dolphins.
• Teams with recent playoff experience, playing in the Wild Card round, facing a team without it, tend to have an advantage.
  When two teams play in Wild Card round, one making playoffs year prior, while the other didn’t – the team with playoff experience is 29-14-1 ATS (67%) last 20 years.
  Wild Card: BUF, DAL
• Dak Prescott regular season
  SU, ATS: 73-41 SU, 64-48-2 ATS
  Home/Road: 43-15 SU, 33-24-1 at home. 30-26 SU, 31-24-1 ATS on road
  Favorite/Dog: 61-23 SU, 49-33-2 ATS as favorite. 12-18 SU, 15-15 ATS as dog.
• Dak Prescott is 1-5 ATS in his career in the playoffs. He’s 85th of 88 QBs ATS last 20 years.
• Dak Prescott playoffs
  SU, ATS: 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS
  Home/Road: 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS at home. 1-2 SU/ATS on road
  Favorite/Dog: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS as favorite. 0-2 SU/ATS as dog.
• Mike McCarthy regular season (career)
  SU, ATS: 167-102-2 SU, 150-115-6 ATS
  Home/Road: 98-35-2 SU, 77-54-4 at home. 69-67 SU, 73-61-2 ATS on road/neutral
  Favorite/Dog: 138-48-1 SU, 110-73-4 ATS as favorite. 29-54-1 SU, 40-42-4 ATS as dog.
• Mike McCarthy playoffs (career)
  SU, ATS: 11-10 SU, 12-8-1 ATS
  Home/Road: 4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS at home. 7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS on road/neutral.
  Favorite/Dog: 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS as favorite. 4-6 SU, 6-3-1 ATS as dog.
• Mike McCarthy regular season (with Cowboys)
  SU, ATS: 42-25 SU, 38-29 ATS
  Home/Road: 25-8 SU, 20-13 at home. 17-17 SU, 18-16 ATS on road
  Favorite/Dog: 34-12 SU, 28-12 ATS as favorite. 8-13 SU, 10-11 ATS as dog.
• Mike McCarthy playoffs (with Cowboys)
  SU, ATS: 1-2 SU/ATS
  Home/Road: 0-1 SU/ATS at home. 1-1 SU/ATS on road
  Favorite/Dog: 1-1 SU/ATS as favorite. 0-1 SU/ATS as dog.
• Mike McCarthy has coached seven home playoff games as favorite, 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS.
• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson has 24 targets in the red zone this year, most for a tight end this season
• Cowboys home vs. road this season
  Home: 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS .. covering by 12.81 PPG
  Road: 4-5 SU/ATS.. Not covering by an average of .94 ppg
• Cowboys have won 16 straight games at home. Third time since merger for them undefeated at home single season, 1980, 81 (L, Conf Champ both).
• This line initially opened at Dallas -7 and is up to -7.5. It has been profitable to follow the line with Prescott. His teams are 23-10 ATS when the line moves against him (ex. -5 to -7) by two points or more. When the line moves at all against Prescott between the opening and closing lines, his teams are 33-22-1 ATS in his career.
• Prescott is 6-14 straight up in his career on the road vs. over .500 SU teams. Since he was drafted, that's 114th of 116 QBs in moneyline profitability.
  At home vs. over .500 SU teams: 18-11 SU
• Prescott is 5-8-1 ATS in MST or PST time zones, but he’s 60-43-1 ATS in EST and CST.
• Prescott after a win by 10+ points: 23-18 SU, 18-22-1 ATS
  20+ pts: 13-12 SU, 9-15-1 ATS
• Prescott after facing an NFC East opponent: 27-10 SU, 22-14-1 ATS
• Prescott is 7-2 ATS coming off a loss last two seasons and 9-11 ATS off a SU win.
  7-2 ATS mark is T-best in the NFL with Kenny Pickett. Dak is 11-3 ATS off a loss last three seasons.
• Prescott does well vs. bad teams. He is 37-10 SU, 32-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 23-26 SU, 18-31 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
  The 32-13-2 ATS mark is second-best in the last 20 years behind just Tom Brady.
  The 18-31 ATS mark is 261st of 264 QBs in the last 20 years.
• Lamb has a TD in nine straight games. Most by a wide receiver since A.J. Green in 2012
  Longest streak: Jerry Rice 1987, 12 | Randy Moss 2003-04, 10 | Carl Pickens 1994-95, 10 | AJ Green 2012, Randy Moss 1998, Terrell Owens 1998 w/ 9
• Least profitable QBs ATS in the playoffs over the last 20 years
  Brees 7-11 ATS, Ryan 3-7 ATS, Allen 2-6 ATS, Dak 1-5 ATS

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Rams at Lions | Sunday, Jan. 14

8:00pm ET | NBC

DET -3 | 52.5

Rams

• Team status: 10-7 SU, 10-6-1 ATS.
  Over win total of 6.5. LAR tied with Texans for most wins above their win total so far this season at 3.5
  In McVay’s seven seasons, his teams are now 5-2 to the over on their win total
• Rams have won four in a row and seven of their last eight coming into the playoffs as a Wild Card team
  McVay is 2-3 SU after winning four in a row.
• Since Week 11, the Rams are 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS – their only SU loss is a 6-point loss to the Ravens.
• Rams have scored 20+ points now in seven straight games – second-longest active streak behind Bills at eight.
  Teams to score 20+ points in at least five straight games entering the playoffs is just 38-52 ATS (42%) last 20 years.
• 2023 is the first season Stafford will finish above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 – he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, worst season since 2013. Stafford is 9-5-1 ATS this season.
• Rams are 6-11 SU and 8-7-2 ATS in their last 17 road games dating back to last season.
• Puka Nacua season update.
  He has 105 rec, 1,486 rec yds, 6 TD, 14.2 Y/rec
  He is now the third player to have recorded 100 rec in their first season joining 2021 Jaylen Waddle and 2003 Anquan Boldin.
  Puka Nacua in the history books.
  Rookie records for yards (1,486) and receptions (105)
• Sean McVay’s teams tend to perform better early in the season vs. late.
  Sept/Oct: 36-17 SU
  Nov. on: 41-31 SU
• McVay is 27-17-1 ATS vs. NFC West & 38-39-3 ATS vs. all other divisions
  ARI: 12-2-1 ATS | SEA: 10-5 ATS (22-7-1 ATS combined)
  SF: 5-10 ATS
• McVay is 15-6 SU, 13-6-2 ATS coaching in Eastern Time Zone.
  Last 20 years, no PST coach has performed better ATS than McVay in EST.
• How has McVay performed as an underdog? 14-25 SU, but 21-16-2 ATS (27-12 in a 6-pt teaser).
• Matthew Stafford regular season
  SU, ATS: 98-107-1 SU, 93-107-6 ATS
  Home/Road: 53-51 SU, 48-56 ATS at home. 45-56-1 SU, 45-51-6 ATS on road/neutral.
  Favorite/Dog: 70-36-1 SU, 49-55-3 ATS as favorite. 28-71 SU, 44-52-3 ATS as dog.
• Matthew Stafford playoffs
  SU, ATS: 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS
  Home/Road: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS at home. 2-3 SU/ATS on road/neutral.
  Favorite/Dog: 3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS as favorite. 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS as dog.
• Since Stafford sat out Week 18, how has the QB performed on extended rest?
  23-24 SU, 25-21-1 ATS – he is just 4-8-1 ATS with the Rams in this spot.
• Stafford as an underdog indoors: 16-40 SU, 24-31-1 ATS | with the Rams: 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS
• Stafford has been behind:

1. Best WR season ever (Cooper Kupp, 2021)
2. Second-best WR season ever (Calvin Johnson, 2012)
3. Best rookie WR season ever (Puka Nacua, 2023)

• Stafford is 14-21 SU, 15-19-1 ATS in night games.
  Stafford as a favorite at night: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS
  With Rams: 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS
  As an underdog at night, Stafford is 4-17 SU, 7-13-1 ATS
  Of 192 QBs to make a start at night as an underdog, Stafford’s 7-13-1 ATS mark is second worst in the NFL
• Stafford’s one career start vs. Lions: 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS
• Can’t forget about Mr. Backdoor himself, Sean McVay. He’s 21-14 SU, 18-15-2 ATS in night games. He’s 18-6 SU as a favorite and just 3-8 SU as an underdog.
• Stafford is 29-74 SU as an underdog in his career, including 1-9 SU last two seasons.
  $100 bettor is down $2,646 last 20 years, worst in the NFL.
• Matthew Stafford is 7-16-1 against the second half spread since the start of last season. Last five years, he is 24-43-2 2H ATS, the second-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Justin Herbert.
• Stafford can’t hold a lead.
  Stafford leading at half this season: 2-6 2H ATS (2-10-1 2H ATS last two years)
  He’s 33-60-2 2H ATS after leading at half, including 9-23-1 2H ATS since 2019
  He’s 48-47-6 2H ATS when trailing at halftime.
• Stafford can’t beat good teams. He’s 33-67 SU and 38-60-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU – least profitable QB SU and ATS in this spot last 20 years.
  He is 10-10 SU and 8-12 ATS with Rams in this spot.
  When Stafford faces a team .500 SU or worse he is 61-37 SU and 50-44-4 ATS.
• Stafford is 21-22-2 ATS with Rams – fourth-least profitable QB for franchise last 20 years.
• West coast teams traveling east has been a good omen lately.
  = PST teams have had success playing in EST recently, going 54-34-3 ATS (61.4%) since 2019.
  Wild Card: LAR
  = Teams to travel from PST to EST have had first half success going 116-75-3 1H ATS (61%) since 2017.
  Wild Card: LAR
  = PST and MST teams have had success playing on the road in EST lately, they are 75-45-3 ATS (63%) since 2019 – over .500 ATS in all five seasons.
  Wild Card: LAR

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Lions

• Team status: 12-5 SU, 12-5 ATS
  Over win total of 9.5. Detroit hasn’t won 10 games since 2014 and they’ve now gone over their win total in consecutive seasons for first time since 2016-17.
  Last time Detroit went over their win total by at least two games in back-to-back seasons was '99-00. They did that with a win in week 18.
• Lions have lost nine consecutive games straight up in the playoffs. Their last win came back in 1992 at home against the Cowboys
  Lions recent playoff history: Only three playoff games in the last 20 years, all losses by an average of 13.67 points.
  Lions last home playoff game: Jan. 8, 1994 vs. Packers. DET was -1.5.
• Lions are 24-10 ATS since the start of last season, most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($1,185).
  Lions have 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons (12-5 ATS this year). Prior to this stretch, Lions had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995.
  Lions are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
• Lions historically as favorites in the playoffs.
  This will be their first playoff game as a favorite since Dec. 30, 1995 at the Eagles. DET closed -3 and lost 58-37.
  Since 1960, Lions have been favorites in the playoffs four times. They are 1-3 SU/ATS, with their only win coming at home on Jan. 5, 1992 against the Cowboys, 38-6 as a 1-point favorite.
• Home teams who missed the playoffs the year prior are 30-49 ATS in the playoffs over the last 20 years.
  Wild Card: HOU, DET
• When those teams are listed as favorites, they are 19-40 ATS (32%).
  Wild Card: DET
• After both teams go over the total in their previous game, the under tends to be a good play when they matchup a week later. With total of 45 or higher, when both teams go over the previous week, the under is 355-302-8 (54%) last 20 years and 106-78-3 (58%) since 2019. This system is 24-15-1 in the playoffs last 20 years.
  Wild Card: LAR/DET
• Fade good SU and ATS teams. In December or later, teams with a 70%+ win percentage & 60%+ cover pct are 216-264-10 ATS (45%) last 20 years.
  Wild Card: DET
• Lions are 35-16 ATS (68.6%) over the last three seasons – best mark in the NFL, profiting a $100 bettor +$1,582.
  This is the best 3-year stretch ATS for any team since the Patriots between 2016-18, going 40-17 ATS, for +$2,252
• Importance of Sam LaPorta.
  TE with 10+ TD in rookie year: Laporta, Gronkowski, Ditka
  82 rec is most for rookie TE in NFL history
  He’s second in receiving first downs (48) for DET this year beyond Amon-Ra St. Brown (75).
• Lions won at home last week by 10 points vs. Vikings and are now at home again.
  Last three seasons, Lions are 3-0 ATS at home after winning by 10+
• Goff and Campbell vs. teams scoring over 21 PPG: 11-8 SU, 16-3 ATS
• Goff’s one career start vs. Rams: 0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS
• Goff has performed well at night, going 17-11 SU, 17-10-1 ATS.
  Including 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS with Lions.
• Goff and Campbell after facing NFC North opponent: 8-7 SU, 11-4 ATS
• Dan Campbell 39-24 ATS (61.9%) career. Of ​​115 NFL coaches that have had 50+ games experience under their belt since 1990, Dan Campbell has the best ATS win pct of all of them
• Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor.
  Indoor: 35-16 ATS (25-8 ATS last three seasons)
  Outdoor: 34-35-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in Nov or earlier | 9-15-1 ATS in Dec/Jan)
• Goff is 24-9-1 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
• Goff is most profitable QB ATS over last five years (51-28-1 ATS, +$1,916).
• Goff vs. teams above .500 SU with Lions: 10-7-1 SU, 14-4 ATS | at home: 6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS
  Vs. teams below .500 SU: 10-11 SU, 11-10 ATS
• Goff is 22-10 ATS at home since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL ($1,033)
  Goff on the road since 2020: 19-13 ATS
• Goff went 383 pass attempts without an interception before throwing one in Week 2 – the third-longest streak in NFL history behind Aaron Rodgers (402) and Tom Brady (399).
  In 2023, he is +0.88 units betting his yes INT prop.
  If you bet on Goff to throw an INT in every game last season, you would have been down 7.3U (most of any QB).
• Lions are 35-16 ATS (68.6%) over the last three seasons – best mark in the NFL, profiting a $100 bettor +$1,582.
  This is the best three-year stretch ATS for any team since the Patriots between 2016-18, going 40-17 ATS, for +$2,252
• Most profitable QB against the spread…
• Since 2022: Jared Goff (24-10 ATS)
• Since 2021: Jared Goff (33-15 ATS)
• Since 2020: Jared Goff (41-23 ATS)
• Since 2019: Jared Goff (51-28-1 ATS)
• Since 2018: Jared Goff (60-37-2 ATS)
• Since 2017: Jared Goff (69-44-2 ATS)

Since 2010, Three-year Stretch ATS

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Eagles at Buccaneers | Monday, Jan. 15

8:15pm ET | ABC/ESPN

PHI -3 | 43

Eagles

• Team status: 11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS.
  Eagles under their win total for first time in three years
• Eagles had +700 to win the Super Bowl entering the season – their lowest odds to win it all since 2005 (5-1).
• After losing to the Giants, the Eagles are 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS in last six games
• Eagles have just two wins of 10+ points this season. Fewest ever for a Super Bowl winner is three done twice (1982 Wash, 2015 Den) — 10 of the last 11 Super Bowl champs have had six or more such games
  Teams to win Super Bowl after having a three-game game losing streak same season: 2021 LAR, 2012 BAL, 2011 NYG, 2010 NO, 2005 PIT, 2000 BAL
• Eagles have lost six consecutive games ATS entering the playoffs.
  For the Eagles, it’s their longest ATS losing streak since 2012 (also six). Eagles last lost seven or more straight games ATS back in 1994. They lost 8 consecutive games SU/ATS.
  Eagles are the first team to lose at least six straight games ATS entering the playoffs since the 2002 49ers, who lost eight straight ATS entering the playoffs. They won their Wild Card game vs. Giants, 39-38 as 3-point favorites – not covering for the ninth straight game, before losing by 25 in the Divisional Round to the Buccaneers.
• Good teams who lost and scored fewer than 14 points in their last game tend to cover in their next game. Teams over .500 SU, who scored less than 14 points in a loss are 107-84-6 ATS (56%) last 10 years.
  Wild Card: PHI
• Jalen Hurts regular season
  SU, ATS: 34-17 SU, 25-24-2 ATS
  Home/Road: 17-8 SU, 15-9-1 at home. 17-9 SU, 10-15-1 ATS on road
  Favorite/Dog: 29-8 SU, 18-17-2 ATS as favorite. 5-9 SU, 7-7 ATS as dog/PK.
• Jalen Hurts playoffs
  SU, ATS: 2-2 SU/ATS
  Home/Road: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS at home. 1-1 SU/ATS on road/neutral
  Favorite/Dog: 2-1 SU/ATS as favorite. 0-1 SU/ATS as dog.
• As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Jalen Hurts is 30-7 SU, 19-16-2 ATS in his career.
• Hurts career vs. Bucs: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS
  Hurts’ one career starts vs. Baker: 1-0 SU/ATS. W, 25-11
• Hurts career on Monday Night Football: 3-3 SU/ATS
  Hurts at night on extended rest: 5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS
• Hurts career vs. NFC South: 12-7 SU, 7-10-2 ATS
• Hurts is 7-10-2 ATS vs. NFC East and 20-16 ATS vs. all other divisions
  Hurts began his career 0-4 SU vs. NFC East, he is 12-3 SU since
• Hurts entered 2023 3-10 ATS as a road/neutral favorite. He’s now 4-3 SU and 3-3-1 ATS in 2023.
  Hurts is 14-7 SU as a road/neutral favorite (or pick’em) in his career – lost three of last seven in this spot
• Eagles defense allowed 35 points two weeks ago vs. Cardinals.
  Eagles are 8-7 SU under Hurts after allowing 30 points or more in their last game – they had won seven in a row SU, but dropped four straight in December/January.
• When the Eagles are trailing, they can get back in the game quick.
  Since December 2021, the Eagles are 8-7 SU in their last 15 games when trailing by 10 points or more at any point, including 4-3 SU this season – they’ve lost three straight in this spot now.
  All other teams are 113-578-2 SU (17%) in that spot since the start of 2021.
• Impact of Lane Johnson.
  Without him: 14-23 SU
  With him: 95-57-1 SU
• Siriani is 26-27-2 ATS career – he’s 8-8-1 ATS with extra time to prep (Week 1 + 8+ days)
• Hurts career on extended rest (8+ days): 7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS
  Hurts has only played three road games on 10+ days rest – Twice this year. Once in K.C., won 21-17 as 2.5-pt dogs. Earlier in Tampa. Won 25-11 as 6-point favorites and 2021 in Vegas. They lost 33-22.
• Hurts in night games: 10-7 SU, 10-6-1 ATS
  Home in night games: 7-3 SU, 8-1-1 ATS (2-4 ATS away from home)
• Hurts is 22-13 against the first half spread over the last two seasons. Hurts is just 3-7 1H ATS in his last 10 starts.
• Eagles are 1H moneyline has been a roller coaster dating back to last season. 9-1 to close out 2022, 6-1 to start 2023. Lost 6 straight and now won 3 straight, lost again this past Sunday.
  Since start of last season, Eagles are 25-11-1 1H ML — T-second most 1H ML wins with the 49ers in NFL behind the Ravens (26)
• Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
  Home: 17-9-1 ATS (3rd of 96 QBs since 2020)
  Road/Neutral: 10-17-1 ATS (99th of 100 QBs since 2020)
  All other PHI QBs in the last 20 years are 71-82-1 ATS at home and 81-70-2 ATS road/neutral.
• Eagles on the road recently: 0-3 SU/ATS in last three.
• Hurts doesn’t love facing good offenses. Eagles are 10-12 SU vs. team scoring 24 PPG or more on the year and 23-7 SU under that mark.
• Hurts is just 8-9 SU, 6-11 ATS after a SU loss, including just 4-7 SU on road.
  Hurts after a SU win: 25-10 SU, 19-14-2 ATS
• Hurts 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS since this streak ended…
  After beating the Bills in Week 12, Hurts was 22-1 SU in his last 23 starts.
  QBs to go 22-1 or better in 23-start span since 1950: Jalen Hurts (2022-23), Peyton Manning (2008-09), Tom Brady (2006-09), Tom Brady (2003-04), Joe Montana (1989-93), Jim McMahon (1985-88)
• Eagles are the fourth team since 2000 to start 3-0 SU after losing the Super Bowl.
  The previous three ended up with at least nine wins, but none made it past the Divisional Round.
  2023 Eagles, finished 11-6
  2019 Rams, finished 9-7 (Missed Playoffs)
  2017 Falcons, finished 10-6 (Divisional Round)
  2006 Seahawks, finished 9-7 (Divisional Round)
• Since the NFL switched to a 16+ game season, 47 teams started 10-1 or better.
  Two ended the year with less than 12 wins: 1986 Jets & 2023 Eagles.
• Eagles are the third team in NFL history to start a season 10-1 or better and then lose four of their next five games: 1986 Jets (Lost DIV) & 2020 Steelers (Lost WC).
• The Eagles were -1200 to win the NFC East after their overtime win over the Bills to move to 10-1.

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Buccaneers

• Team status: 9-8 SU, 11-6 ATS. Over win total of 6.5.
• Bucs have now won the NFC South three years in a row.
  Bucs odds to win division in preseason by year.
  2021: -220 | 2022: -250 | 2023: +750
• Bucs are above .500 SU on the season. They’ve had a four-game win streak and a four-game losing streak and won the division with a win in the final week over CAR.
• Buccaneers were tied for the fourth-worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 100-1 entering the season and now they join the Texans (200-1) as the two long shots left in the field.
  They are the 30th and 31st teams to enter the playoffs with 100-1 odds or higher entering the season since the schedule moved to 16+ games in 1978.
  One team won the Super Bowl (1999 Rams)
  One team lost in the Super Bowl (2021 Bengals)
  Three teams lost in Conf. Championship (2017 JAC, 1983 SEA, 1979 TB)
  Eight teams lost in Divisional
  Sixteen teams lost in Wild Card
• Baker Mayfield regular season
  SU, ATS: 40-46 SU, 38-47-1 ATS
  Home/Road: 24-17 SU, 15-25-1 at home. 16-29 SU, 23-22 ATS on road
  Favorite/Dog: 25-16 SU, 14-26-1 ATS as favorite. 15-30 SU, 24-21 ATS as dog.
• Baker Mayfield playoffs
  SU, ATS: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS
  Home/Road: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS on road
  Favorite/Dog: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS as dog.
• Baker Mayfield is 26-21 ATS as an underdog and 14-26-1 ATS as a favorite
• Mayfield will be making his 15th start at night. His teams are 6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS.
  Mayfield won his first MNF start in 2019 and has since gone 0-5 SU/ATS on MNF.
  Mayfield is 0-3 SU/ATS as a home dog at night
  Mayfield last five night games since 2021: 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS. Pts: 18, 11, 12, 14, 10
• Baker had been an under machine since start of last year, 18-9 in that span, including 15-7 in his last 22 starts.
  He and the Bucs had hit four straight overs averaging 25.25 over that stretch but reverted back to three-straight unders to close out the regular season
• Expect a low scoring game? When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 107-53-1 (67%) since 2018, including 31-11 so far this season.
  Wild Card: PHI/TB
• Bucs home vs. road SU, ATS this season:
  Home: 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS
  Away: 5-4 SU, 8-1 ATS
• Baker Mayfield is 40-47-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $920 (268th of 284 QBs in the last 20 years).
• After Baker wins his last game by more than 8 points: 7-17 SU, 11-13 ATS
• Baker is 8-10 ATS last three seasons off SU win. He doesn’t do the streak thing.
• Baker is 15-25-1 ATS at home in his career. He’s never finished a season above .500 ATS at home – He’s ranked 117th of 119 QBs since he entered the league.
• Bucs have scored 22 points total in last two games vs. NO & CAR.
• Bowles career as a coach: 43-59 SU, 45-52-5 ATS
  As a favorite: 26-17 SU, 19-22-2 ATS
  As an underdog: 17-42 SU, 26-30-3 ATS
• Bowles in his career as HC is horrible SU as a dog…
  2023: 5-6 SU
  2022: 0-4 SU
  2018: 3-10 SU
  2017: 4-11 SU
  2016: 3-9 SU
• Todd Bowles in night games
  6-3 SU on road
  2-7 SU at home
• Todd Bowles can’t stop the bleeding. After a loss, he’s 21-34 SU in his next game, ranked 142nd of 149 coaches last 20 years. He is 22-31-2 ATS in that spot, including 5-11-1 ATS with the Bucs.
  Bowles after a SU win: 18-23 SU, 19-19-3 ATS
• Todd Bowles’ one postseason game as coach: 0-1 SU/ATS, loss to Cowboys last season
• Mike Evans and Chris Godwin playoff careers.
  Evans: Seven games, 4 TDs — He has 23 receptions, 315 receiving yards in his last three playoff games last three seasons (10+ targets in all three games).
  Godwin: Five games, 1 TD (first playoff game). He has 26 receptions, 317 receiving yards in his career. In their playoff game last year, he had 13 targets, 10 receptions, 85 yards.
• The Year After Tom Brady
  = In 2023, Bucs went 9-8. Over 6.5 win total. Won division.
  = In 2020, Patriots went 7-9. Under 9 win total. Missed playoffs.
• Entering this season, Baker Mayfield became the fifth QB to start Week 1 for three different teams in consecutive years.
  The only QB of the five aside from Baker to make the playoffs after that first stint? Brett Favre with the Vikings in 2009. Won one playoff game and lost in the Conference Championship.

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NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️

Biggest NFL Wild Card Public Sides
Rams (+3) at DET					70% of bets
Bills (-10) vs. PIT					60% of bets

Biggest NFL Wild Card Line Moves
Bills (-7.5 to -10) vs. PIT
Eagles (-2.5 to -3) at TB

NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️

Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Wild Card
Rams at Lions (+3)					300k bets
Steelers at Bills (-10)					250k bets

Biggest NFL Wild Card Public Totals
GB-DAL (O/U: 50.5)					86% of bets to over
PHI-TB (O/U: 43)					82% of bets to under

System: Teams on the 3rd leg or later of a road trip are just 21-56 SU (27%) last 20 years, including 8-24 SU in the postseason.

Matches: PIT, LAR

$$$: Fade Teams End Road Trip, as Dog

the team is the Dog

the team’s home/away streak is between -100 and -3 games

the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season

$-1,320

WON

21-56-0

RECORD

27%

WIN%

View System

System: After both teams go over the total in their previous game, the under tends to be a good play when they matchup a week later. With total of 45 or higher, when both teams go over the previous week, the under is 355-302-8 (54%) last 20 years and 106-78-3 (58%) since 2019. This system is 24-15-1 in the playoffs last 20 years.

Matches: LAR/DET

$$$: After Both Over, Go Under, Higher Total

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

betting on the Under

the home team's previous game OU margin is between 0.5 and 100

the visitor's previous game OU margin is between 0.5 and 100

the closing total is between 45 and 100

$3,105

WON

355-302-8

RECORD

54%

WIN%

View System

System: Bet on good offenses having a recent run of bad luck.

Matches: TB

$$$: Good Offense, Bad Recent Run

the team's average points scored is between 20 and 100

the team's 2 Game Points streak is between 0 and 14

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

$2,009

WON

70-46-4

RECORD

60%

WIN%

View System

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

NFL Playoff Trends ⤵️

Coaching Matters

Career in Playoffs

Smaller Dogs

Momentum

NFL Playoff teams that become smaller underdogs (+4 to +3) have gone 44-20-2 (69%) ATS over the last 20 years, including 54-12 (82%) in 6-pt teasers

Double The Fun

Big Numbers

Double-digit underdogs are 4-11 ATS in the playoffs since 2011
Double-digit underdogs in the Wild Card round are 2-7 ATS in the last 20 years

Fade The Good

Crunch Time

In the last 20 years, teams with a 75%+ win percentage are 84-106-3 ATS (44%) in the playoffs, including 61-83-2 ATS (42%) when listed as the favorite

Zebra Time

Ref Trends

HOU CLE
+ Clay Martin 56-36 ATS to favorites, +1590
+ Clay Martin 53-38 ATS to road team, +1150

MIA KC
+ Brad Rogers 3-0 SU with Chiefs. All 3 since 2020.

PIT BUF
+ Josh Allen is 7-3 SU in Cheffers games.
+ Underdogs are 138-111-5 ATS (55.4%) in Cheffers ref’d games. Dogs are .500 ATS or better in six straight seasons with Cheffers.
+ Since 2015, Cheffers is 81-67 to the under.
+ Cheffers is 11-2 to the under in the playoffs.

GB DAL
+ Packers are 7-1 ATS last 8 games with Torbert. Only loss was 2022 playoff game vs. 49ers.
+ Last 4 seasons, Torbert is 42-23-1 (65%) to the under. The most profitable ref to the under of 20 diff. refs in that span. 2nd is Bill Vinovich and 3rd is Carl Cheffers.

LAR DET
+ Rams have lost both games with Craig Wrolstad over the last two seasons against SSteelers and Seahawks (1/8/23).
+ Wrolstad has ref’d four playoff games. Favorites are 4-0 ATS in those games.

PHI TB
+ Eagles are 2-0 SU with Adrian Hill since 2021, while Bucs are 0-2 SU with him since 2020.
+ Hill has ref’d one playoff game. Last year’s Vikings-Giants, 31-24 New York win.

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Biggest Super Bowl Riser

Houston Texans: 40-1 (HOU was 100-1 to win SB last week)

Biggest Super Bowl Faller

Philadelphia Eagles: 13-1 (PHI was 4-1 to win SB entering Week 13)

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

NFL Win Total Final Grid

Trending Up 📈
Colts ✅					9-8	Win Total: 6.5
Rams ✅					10-7	Win Total: 6.5
Buccaneers ✅					9-8	Win Total: 6.5
Texans ✅					10-7	Win Total: 6.5
Lions ✅					12-5	Win Total: 9.5
Dolphins ✅					11-6	Win Total: 9.5
Ravens ✅					13-4	Win Total: 10.5
Raiders ✅					8-9	Win Total: 6.5
Cowboys ✅					12-5	Win Total: 9.5
Browns ✅					11-6	Win Total: 9.5
49ers ✅					12-5	Win Total: 10.5
Steelers ✅					10-7	Win Total: 8.5
Packers ✅					9-8	Win Total: 7.5
Seahawks ✅					9-8	Win Total: 8.5
Bills ✅					11-6	Win Total: 10.5
Eagles ❌					11-6	Win Total: 11.5
Jaguars ❌					9-8	Win Total: 9.5

Trending Down 📉
Bears ❌					7-10	Win Total: 7.5
Broncos ❌					8-9	Win Total: 8.5
Cardinals ❌					4-13	Win Total: 4.5
Falcons ❌					7-10	Win Total: 8.5
Vikings ❌					7-10	Win Total: 8.5
Chiefs ❌					11-6	Win Total: 11.5
Saints ❌					9-8	Win Total: 9.5
Bengals ❌					9-8	Win Total: 11.5
Titans ❌					6-11	Win Total: 7.5
Giants ❌					6-11	Win Total: 7.5
Jets ❌					7-10	Win Total: 9.5
Commanders ❌					4-13	Win Total: 6.5
Patriots ❌					4-13	Win Total: 7.5
Chargers ❌					5-12	Win Total: 9.5
Panthers ❌					2-15	Win Total: 7.5

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Final Betting Season Stat Leaders ⤵️

NFL Final Stat Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Category	3rd In Category
Pass Yds	Tua Tagovailoa (+2000): Won	Jared Goff (+2500): -49	Dak Prescott (+2000): -108
Pass TD	Dak Prescott (+2000): Won	Jordan Love (+6600): -4	Brock Purdy (+5000): -5
INT	Sam Howell (N/A): Won	Josh Allen (+1000): -3	Jalen Hurts (+6600): -6
Rec. Yds	Tyreek Hill (+950): Won	CeeDee Lamb (+1800): -50	Amon-Ra St. Brown (+3000): -284
Rec. TD	Mike Evans (+3000): Won (Dead Heat)	Tyreek Hill (+1400): Won (Dead Heat)	CeeDee Lamb (+2000): -1
Receptions	CeeDee Lamb (+2200): Won	Tyreek Hill (+1100): -16	Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1100): -16
Rush TD	Raheem Mostert (+4000): Won	Jalen Hurts (+800): -3	Josh Allen (+4000): -3
Sacks	T.J. Watt (+850): Won	Trey Hendrickson (+3500): -1.5	Josh Allen (+5000): -1.5
Tackles	Bobby Wagner (+2200): Won	Zaire Franklin (+2000): -4	Alex Singleton (+1200): -6
INT	DaRon Bland (N/A): Won	Geno Stone (N/A): -2	Jessie Bates III (+3400): -3
Kick Pts	Brandon Aubrey (N/A): Won	Justin Tucker (+500): -10	Jason Myers (+1200): -19
Updated as of Jan. 9th

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Trivia Question: Can you name the biggest playoff upset of the last 20 years in terms of point spread?

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