Welcome to hands down, the best time of the year — NFL playoff football. I will be switching gears from my fantasy beat to talk about player prop bets during the postseason.
If the 2022 NFL regular season was any indication of how the Wild Card Round will unfold, we should be in for an awesome slate of six games, starting with the Seahawks vs. 49ers and Chargers vs. Jaguars on Saturday.
I used the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NFL projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out five player props I am playing, the case for each pick and the best books to find odds on each of them.
Christian McCaffrey
Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-115; BetRivers)
Since joining the 49ers in Week 7, McCaffrey has been on fire and should continue this trend by exceeding 71.5 rushing yards against the Seahawks.
An integral part of the Brock Purdy-led offense, McCaffrey has three 100-plus-yard rushing yard games since Purdy took over for Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13. He would have cleared this over in six of 17 games this year (35.3%) and three of the last five (60%), which is decent against the implied odds of 53.5%.
The matchup is stellar. Seattle ranked 25th in Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA metric in the regular season and were 28th in the same metric since the team’s bye in Week 11.
The Seahawks allowed the third-most rushing yards per game (150.2), ahead of only the Bears and Texans, and were just lit up by Cam Akers for 104 rushing yards in Week 18. The last time these two teams met, McCaffrey carved Seattle up for 108 yards on 26 rushes and a touchdown. He also tacked on six catches for 30 yards.
If you are hesitant about McCaffrey’s workload with both Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel back from injury, allow me to quell some of those concerns.
In Week 18 against the Cardinals, Mitchell had a nice game, rushing five times for 55 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Samuel rushed once for four yards. McCaffrey still out-snapped Mitchell by a count of 30 to 10 and should remain the alpha in the backfield – especially in light of Mitchell’s durability issues.
The aforementioned concern should also be tempered by Saturday’s yucky forecast in San Francisco. Weather.com predicts a 100% chance of rain and 15-to-25 mph winds, which could hamper each team’s passing attack. There should be ample opportunities to go around in what might be a sloppy, run-heavy affair, which would benefit both Mitchell and McCaffrey.
I feel even more confident knowing that expert analyst Sean Koerner is on board with this pick as well. Data from the Action Labs props tool supports this pick, as the consensus projection by Koerner and Chris Raybon is 77 yards.
Noah Fant
Under 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114; Unibet)
It should come as little surprise that I like numerous Seattle unders this week, my favorite of which is Fant to tally fewer than 28.5 yards.
The Seahawks, who squeaked into the playoffs, are 9.5-point underdogs in a contest with the second-lowest point total of the week (42.5). This inspires minimal confidence in their offense, and as alluded to previously, Saturday’s forecast is unlikely to lend itself to pass-friendly situations.
I thought Fant would be the beneficiary of Will Dissly ending up on injured reserve three weeks ago. Instead, it has been Colby Parkinson who has seen an uptick in usage.
Parkinson went from a season-low 25% snap participation rate in Week 12 to a season-high 79% in Week 18. He has out-snapped Fant in each of the last two weeks by a combined count of 113 to 90. Fant saw three fewer targets in that span and was held to four catches for 20 yards against the Rams in Week 18. He would have hit the under on this pick in nine of 17 games this season (52.9%) and three of the last five (60%), which bodes well against the implied odds of 53.3%.
In addition to Fant’s dwindling opportunities, the matchup is downright brutal. The 49ers were fifth in defensive pass DVOA and were one of the tougher defenses against tight ends this year.
Fant did exceed this number in one of these teams’ two previous meetings. In Week 15 at home, he caught 5-of-6 targets for 32 yards and a touchdown; Week 2 on the road, however, Fant caught two passes for 11 yards.
This pick is supported by Action Labs’ props tool, which rates this bet a 7 out of 10 based on Koerner and Raybon’s projection of 25.3 receiving yards.
George Kittle
Anytime Touchdown (+140; DraftKings)
It took little time for Kittle to build a rapport with third-string quarterback Brock Purdy, who has been peppering the veteran tight end with scoring opportunities of late.
Kittle has been targeted at least five times in every one of Purdy’s starts, and he has a whopping seven touchdowns in the last four games after scoring just four in his previous 11 games.
Seattle ended the regular season in the middle of the pack in pass DVOA (17th), but were particularly bad against opposing tight ends. The Seahawks were last in fantasy points allowed to the position and tied for seventh in touchdowns allowed to tight ends per game (0.47).
Kittle missed the first meeting between these teams in Week 2 due to injury. He made up for lost time in Week 15 when he caught 4-of-5 targets for 93 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Although I am fading many players in this game due to the sloppy weather forecasted for Saturday, Kittle may be relatively less impacted than other pass-catchers given his usage in short yardage and red-zone situations.
The favorable +140 odds at DraftKings – which gives this bet implied odds of 41.7% – make it extra enticing. This bet would have cashed in seven of 15 games this year (46.7%) and four of the last four games.
Action Network's anytime touchdown expert, Gilles Gallant, is on board with this pick as well.
Justin Herbert
Over 37.5 Pass Attempts (-114; FanDuel)
Herbert took a bit of a step back this season after a stellar Year 2 campaign, but he should still have no problem lighting up the Jaguars’ awful pass defense.
First, he averaged over 41 attempts per game, trailing only Tom Brady in total attempts this year. He attempted 45 passes when these teams met in Week 3, completing 25 of them for 297 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
Overall, the Jaguars have been dreadful against the pass. They ranked 30th in pass DVOA, ahead of only the Raiders and Bears, and allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game (238.5).
Jacksonville ranked seventh in opponent passing attempts per game (35.4) and allowed more than 37.5 attempts to six of 17 quarterbacks (35.3%) while playing in one of the softest divisions in the NFL.
Herbert would have cleared the over on this line in 10 of 17 games this season (58.8%), which is a great percentage against the implied odds of this wager of 53.3%. Bet this prop with confidence knowing Action Labs rates this a perfect 10 out of 10 based on our consensus projection of 41.9 passing attempts, making this the top-rated prop on the board for this game.
Pick: Justin Herbert Over 37.5 Pass Attempts |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Jamal Agnew
Under 7.5 Receiving Yards (-110; BetMGM)
Death, taxes and betting unders for obscure, fourth-stringers.
Agnew has been overshadowed, for the most part, by Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Marvin Jones. He has seen a whopping three targets over the past three games against significantly inferior teams than the Chargers (Jets, Texans, Titans) and is averaging just 6.7 receiving yards in that span.
The Chargers defense is no joke against the pass, ranking 10th in pass DVOA. They are far more exploitable on the ground (29th in rush DVOA), which is how I expect the Jaguars to attack this game.
I am struggling to envision a path to relevance for Agnew as Trevor Lawrence’s sixth option behind the aforementioned three receivers, plus tight end Evan Engram and running back Travis Etienne Jr.
Agnew would have hit the under in eight of 15 games this year (53.3%), which edges out the -110 odds (52.4% implied). I would not be surprised if he is held catchless in this contest.
This pick is supported by data from Action Labs’ props tool, which rates this bet an 8 out of 10 based on Koerner and Raybon’s projection of just 4.8 receiving yards.
