Raiders vs Packers Expert Spread Pick, Prediction for Monday Night Football
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +100 |
Action Network has everything you need to know about Raiders vs Packers odds for Monday Night Football, including the spread, total and our expert prediction.
Week 5 MNF features two storied NFL franchises trying to find their way this season, and oddsmakers have the Raiders as just 1-point favorites. The total has settled at 45.
Bet Green Bay vs. Las Vegas at FanDuel
In this game, former Packer Davante Adams is expected to face his old team for the first time since he was traded to the Raiders in March of 2022. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo also makes his return from a concussion on MNF. For the Packers, running back Aaron Jones will be sidelined because of a hamstring injury.
Should you back Adams, Garoppolo and the Raiders in this revenge spot, or will Jordan Love and the Packers rebound from a dismal effort against the Lions?
Continue reading for my Green Bay-Las Vegas preview, which includes my Raiders vs Packers pick and prediction.
Packers vs. Raiders
Matchup Analysis
The Packers are 12th in EPA per play on offense (0.028) and face a Raiders defense ranked 30th in EPA per play (0.116).
Jordan Love has led Green Bay to a top-10 passing EPA-per-play mark (0.120) and should have ample opportunities to make plays against a Raiders defense that ranks 30th in passing EPA per play (-0.238) and 31st in pressure rate (16.9%).
The Raiders' lack of pressure generation from players not named Maxx Crosby is a key factor in this matchup, because Green Bay's only loss by more than one point came last week against the Lions, who sacked Love a season-high five times.
From a clean pocket, Love is completing 62.7% of his passes for 7.6 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and one interception. When pressured, he is completing only 33.3% of his passes for 4.2 yards per attempt with one touchdown and two interceptions.
On the other side of the ball, Jimmy Garoppolo will make his return to the lineup after missing last week with a concussion.
It's tough to get a read on Garoppolo as a Raider, as he faced one horrible defense (Denver) and an excellent one (Buffalo) before getting concussed in Week 3 against Pittsburgh — a game in which he threw three interceptions. Garoppolo has the NFL's highest interception rate through three starts, but he also ranks fifth in passing success rate (52.2%) among 34 qualified quarterbacks.
The Packers are 12th in passing EPA per play on defense (-0.021), but top cornerback Jaire Alexander (questionable, hip) hasn't played since Week 2 and would be a big loss against Davante Adams (questionable, shoulder). Adams has accounted for 41.9% of Las Vegas' receiving yardage this season.
The Raiders should be able to run the ball against a Packers defense that ranks 27th in EPA per rush (0.01), but it's no guarantee, as the Raiders are last in rushing yards per game (65.3) and managed only 61 yards against the 31st-ranked Broncos in Week 1.
Packers vs. Raiders
Betting Picks & Predictions
The Packers have been the better team, but they've also been overachieving in areas which are likely to regress to the mean, such as their fourth-ranked red-zone conversion rate (69.2%).
Meanwhile, the Raiders have gotten unlucky and rank as the fifth-unluckiest team in our Week 5 Luck Rankings, while the Packers rank ninth-luckiest.
I'd still lean Packers here, but I don't see much value unless the line gets to +3.
All EPA data via rbsdm.com. Defensive pressure stats via Pro Football Reference. All other data via PFF unless otherwise noted.
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