The Patriots vs Broncos Christmas Eve Sunday Night Football game might be one of the most stale of the year.
Denver enters Sunday night on the heels of a 42-17 loss to the Lions. The defeat has the Broncos one game back of the other AFC Wild Card teams entering Sunday. Fortunately, Denver’s schedule is fairly light to end the year with the Patriots, Chargers and Raiders. If the Broncos can win all three, they could sneak into the playoffs.
The Patriots are also coming off a disappointing loss, but they were able to keep things much closer, losing 27-17 to the Chiefs. Making the loss worse than the score would indicate was the offense's inability to sustain drives. After showing signs of hope against Pittsburgh, the Patriots had their second-lowest yardage total of the season.
With background aside, let’s build our Patriots vs Broncos same game parlay for Sunday Night Football.
Patriots vs Broncos Same Game Parlay (+1100; DraftKings)
- Broncos 1st Half -4.5 (+102)
- Broncos Under 2.5 Team Total Touchdowns (-140)
- Courtland Sutton 60+ Receiving Yards (+160)
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Broncos 1st Half -4.5
Trusting the Broncos to beat a 7.5-point spread is far too much with how low their offensive ceiling is.
However, beating a 4.5-point spread in a half should be more than manageable. In five of the seven games the Broncos have won, they have led by at least five points at the half. As seven-point home favorites with playoff implications, I expect them to win.
The Patriots are also overrated from their recent success because they relied on early turnovers to score in the first half of games. New England has a good defense, but it ranks 29th in turnovers. Denver knows this is its game to lose and will not give New England the same opportunities the Steelers and Chiefs did.
The Broncos will come out strong as they have in their other wins and put the Patriots in their place early.
Broncos Under 2.5 Team Total Touchdowns
Since its bye week, Denver has just two games in which it has scored more than two touchdowns. Now, the Broncos take on a Patriots team that has a surprisingly good defense.
New England ranks fifth in yards per drive allowed and seventh in points per drive allowed, and they have the sixth-best red-zone defense. Beyond that, the Patriots are first in yards allowed per carry, and Denver has the fifth-highest run rate in the league.
The Patriots will keep the Denver offense from moving the ball down the field regularly. Even when the Broncos do get in the red zone, that is when the Patriots typically tighten up.
Three touchdowns simply seems like too many.
Courtland Sutton 60+ Receiving Yards
If you thought the first two legs contradict each other, this final one should tie it all together.
Denver is very selective of the shots it takes offensively. But Russell Wilson has completed a pass of at least 30 yards in eight straight games — his top target on those passes is Courtland Sutton.
Sutton has been the recipient of Wilson’s longest throw in five of the last six games. Connecting chunk plays like that makes it much easier to close out the rest of the required yardage. That is why Sutton has hit this threshold in five straight games.
The Patriots may play well against the run, but they rank 15th in net yards per pass allowed. If Denver is going to cover the first-half spread, it will be because Wilson hit a deep shot or two to flip the field. If he does, Sutton will be the most likely recipient.
