Patriots vs Cowboys Odds Week 4
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -270 |
Jerry World is the site of the most intriguing game of the NFL Sunday afternoon slate, so let’s check out Patriots vs. Cowboys odds for Week 4, which have Dallas as 6-point favorites against New England on bet365.
Losing as double-digit favorites to Arizona last week, the Cowboys return home looking to rebound against New England. The Cowboys had major issues preventing big plays and stopping the Cardinals' rushing attack, and they compounded those issues with major inefficiency in the red zone.
Dallas lost Trevon Diggs to an ACL injury and will be without Tyron Smith, in addition to potentially a couple other offensive line starters. Still, Mac Jones and the Patriots offense will struggle to keep up as they lack dynamic weapons on the outside to exploit the absence of Diggs.
Let's preview New England and Dallas and then make a Patriots vs. Cowboys pick and prediction.
Patriots vs. Cowboys
Matchup Analysis
There's been a lot of discussion about the red-zone issues Dallas has had this season.
In consecutive weeks against the Jets and Cardinals, the Cowboys' play calling and inefficiency led to a lot of field goals. Red-zone data is inherently noisy in small samples and they're not the only offense in NFC East struggling in the red zone with a new offensive play caller. The Eagles have had similar issues despite being an elite running team. Sometimes, the market overreacts to this and the line moving off seven toward New England is a classic example in my view.
One persistent issue for some teams that struggle in the red zone is the inability to run the ball, but the Cowboys rank in the top seven in both EPA per rush and rushing success rate. The offensive line yards haven't been an issue and I'd expect positive regression for the offense going forward.
It is important to monitor injuries along the offensive line as both Zack Martin and Tyler Biadasz are listed as questionable and were limited in practice. While I expect them to play on Sunday, I wouldn't play Dallas -6.5 if both were ruled out.
Bet New England vs. Dallas at FanDuel
As much as it is concerning that Dallas' defense struggled to match up with the Cardinals, that game broke open on two explosive broken plays from Arizona's offense. The Cowboys have real issues in run defense, but the Patriots haven't been an efficient enough running team to exploit this. The Pats rank in the bottom 10 in rushing success rate and EPA per rush.
Most importantly, New England hasn't been able to hit explosive plays to take advantage of an overly aggressive — at times — Cowboys defense. The Patriots offensive line is finally getting healthy — only Cole Strange is on the injury report — but they are last in pass block win rate through three weeks.
The Patriots at their best under Bill Belichick would grind this game to a halt, run the ball, play ball control and limit the possessions for Dallas to get margin. Belichick's record as an underdog from the past is one thing, but the Cowboys will be considerably harder to slow down on the fast turf in Dallas.
New England's offense isn't good enough at preventing havoc for me to expect the league's worst pass-blocking unit through three weeks to block the league's best pass rush by pressure rate.
The Cowboys are elite front-runners because of their ability to rush the passer, and this New England offense has yet to play a quality 60 minutes yet.
Patriots vs. Cowboys
Betting Picks & Predictions
This game opened on Sunday at Dallas -7 with the total at 41.5.
The total seemed a touch low to me given how efficient Dallas' offense is, especially at home. The total was bet up to 43.5 and money came in on New England, the latter of which I mostly disagree with.
As long as Martin and Biadasz play, the Cowboys should be laying the full touchdown. I'd bet Dallas -6.5 or better.
Dallas may have been inflated after two blowout wins in the first two weeks, but they're underrated now in this matchup.
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