Jets vs Patriots Odds
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 35.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -120 | 35.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Jets vs. Patriots odds have New England laying 2.5 points in NFL Week 3.
Offense will be hard to come by for both teams given the conditions. There are forecasted 15-20 mph winds (gusts to 30 mph) and heavy rainfall is expected in the Sunday forecast due to Tropical Storm Ophelia.
Let's break down the matchup and make our Jets vs. Patriots pick.
Jets vs. Patriots
Matchup Analysis
The Patriots have five players listed as questionable, including starting offensive guards Cole Strange (knee) and Mike Onwenu (ankle) — both limited in practice all week. Backup guard Sidy Sow (concussion) is also listed as questionable.
Given the opponent, the Patriots will likely be ultra-conservative offensively and rely on their defense to generate havoc against Zach Wilson.
New England has been unable to efficiently run the ball through two weeks because of game state, and this matchup against a solid Jets defensive front likely won't buck that trend.
New York is sixth in Rushing Success Rate allowed and were a top-five unit last season. Dak Prescott was able to effectively pick apart the Jets' secondary through the air with his precision, but that will be near impossible for Mac Jones to do in the conditions.
The Patriots offense doesn't have the explosive YAC playmakers needed to excel in these kinds of conditions, and Bill Belichick is sure to key in on Garrett Wilson and make sure the Jets' only offensive explosive playmaker doesn't beat them.
Bet Jets vs. Patriots at FanDuel
If you exclude turnovers from the two weeks of data entirely, the Jets are a bottom-three unit in passing success rate and passing EPA/play.
Breece Hall broke off a couple huge runs in the first week against Buffalo, but the Jets haven't really been able to effectively run the ball. New York ranks in the bottom five in rushing success rate — those Hall explosives are the reason the Jets aren't bottom five in EPA/play there, too.
Belichick took a very conservative defensive approach to the matchup with the Dolphins, often playing three safeties high to ensure the Dolphins couldn't hit explosives and use the middle of the field as much. Miami successfully ran the ball as a result, but Belichick doesn't need to make the same trade-off against New York.
I expect New England to be considerably more aggressive with its looks. The weather should also make it more difficult for Wilson to use his athleticism and try to force plays outside of the game script. That not only limits the Jets offense, but will potentially cut down on his turnover risk.
Belichick has had a ton of success in the past against Wilson, and he even alluded to that in his weekly press conference.
The Patriots are 4-0 ATS when facing Wilson; he's completed just 50% of his passes with one touchdown and seven interceptions.
Jets vs. Patriots
Betting Picks & Predictions
The total opened at 37.5, which I bet on and would have bet even in good weather conditions.
Now with the weather all but confirmed to be terrible, the total has not dropped enough in my view. I'd play this down to 35.5 as I expect a very conservative approach from the Patriots offense.
Our Action Network Luck Rankings have the Patriots as the unluckiest team in the NFL through two weeks based on turnover luck and poor efficiency in finishing drives offensively. The Jets rank seventh, buoyed off of a misleading Week 1 win.
In my view, only a handful of Zach Wilson turnovers and New England short fields would send this over the total.
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