Raiders vs. Broncos Odds
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 43 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 43 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Raiders vs. Broncos odds for Week 1 have the home team installed as a 3-point favorites on bet365 to start the season, but that's not where our pick will be for this AFC West rivalry clash.
My best bet for this game comes in the form of a player prop backing Las Vegas kicker Daniel Carlson, who's among the best in the game and will be kicking with the help of the "Mile High" altitude to start the regular season.
Keep scrolling down for my Raiders vs. Broncos pick in Week 1.
Raiders vs. Broncos
Matchup Analysis
Carlson has finished either first or second in field goals made in each of the past two seasons and is expected to rank among the league's elite once again. More importantly for our purposes, he’s set to start the season off with a bang, which is why 5.5 points feels awfully low in this spot.
Carlson’s routinely surpassed that number in his career. He averaged 8.05 points per game a year ago and exceeded 5.5 points in 14 of 17 games. In 2021, he averaged 8.82 points per game and eclipsed 5.5 in 13 of 17 games, while in 2020 he averaged 9.0 points per game and had at least six points in all 16 games. Add it all up and he’s scored more than 5.5 points in 88% of his games over the past three seasons.
Bet Las Vegas vs. Denver at FanDuel
Meanwhile, few places are more kicker-friendly than Empower Field in Denver. Like many, Carlson has enjoyed success there over the years and averages 8.75 ppg in Denver. He scored exactly 10 points at Denver each of the past two seasons and is averaging 9.11 ppg in nine career games against the Broncos (both home and away).
If that wasn’t enough, Carlson’s also going up against a Denver team that allowed the most field goals in the NFL a year ago (39). That’s hardly an anomaly as the Broncos gave up the most field goals in 2020 and the second most in 2019.
Denver typically ranks high in red zone defense, which results in short, chip-shot field goals. They only allowed touchdowns 51.06% of the time in 2022, which was the eighth-best mark in the league.
History shows that Denver allows plenty of field goal opportunities and few are primed to take more advantage of that than Carlson.
Raiders vs. Broncos
Betting Picks & Predictions
Carlson’s track record is too strong to ignore, and 5.5 points is simply too low of a number.
I rarely make big bets during the first few weeks of the regular season as there’s too much uncertainty and not enough data. However, I see this as a rare exception.
I’m putting multiple units on this and plan to sit back, relax and enjoy the Raiders offense stalling out in Broncos territory, while Carlson boots bombs into the thin Denver air.
You can find this bet at bet365 (-135), BetMGM (-145), Caesars (-139) and DraftKings (-135).
