Raiders-Lions Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the picks that our NFL betting staff is targeting tonight. Click on the pick below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
NFL Week 8 closes with our Raiders vs. Lions picks and best bets for Monday Night Football.
On paper, this is one of the most lopsided matchups of the week. The Lions have looked human of late, especially late week in Baltimore, but they return home to face a Las Vegas team that is coming off an embarrassing blowout loss in Chicago.
We have three betting analysts with picks for this game between the Raiders and Lions. Check out their bets and breakdowns below.
Raiders vs. Lions
The Lions are just way better.
Detroit entered Week 8 ranked in the top 10 of both passing and rushing DVOA on both offense and defense. That's everything, and that's even after the drubbing the Lions took in Baltimore, which shows just how good this team has been for the season.
By contrast, the Raiders rank bottom five in three of the four categories and have three wins, but only because they've eked out close ones against other bad teams.
The Lions defense has played much better at home and should respond with pride after last week's debacle against the Ravens. On the other side, the offense should have no problem scoring on a defense that just gave up 30 to the Bears' backups.
Chicago's only real plan against the Raiders seemed to be to just run every play away from Maxx Crosby, and Vegas had no answer and lost 30-12. If the Bears can do that, just imagine what Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson's unit will do.
After an embarrassing loss, I love this spot for Detroit to bounce back in front of a rare home Monday night crowd against a bad, poorly coached team. Everything about it screams Blowout City.
This is my favorite spread pick of the week, and I'll also look at some Lions blowout escalators: Detroit -13.5 (+162), -20.5 (+350) and -27.5 (+870).
Lions by a million. Be sure to use our live NFL odds page to get the best number on Detroit since -7 is available, as of 2 p.m. ET.
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Raiders vs. Lions
By Billy Ward
The three Lions home games this season have averaged 53.33 points per contest, twice going over the 60-point mark. The lone exception was a 20-6 win over the Falcons, who rank 32nd in Pass Rate Over Expectation and turn all of their games into slow-paced slogs.
The Raiders are unlikely to have that effect, as they rank near the league average in both pace of play and pass rate over expectation. While Las Vegas is far from an offensive juggernaut, it should be able to do enough to keep this game mildly competitive — assuming Jimmy Garoppolo is in fact back under center.
The bigger factor is how the Lions, who are favored by 7.5 points, are likely to play once they get a lead. Detroit wants to be a run-first team, but injuries to lead back David Montgomery and key offensive linemen have forced it to keep throwing, even in games that it's in control of.
This was especially evident in Week 6, when Montgomery left the game with an injury. Despite leading essentially the entire game, the Lions attempted 44 passes on 70 offensive snaps. Given the Lions' desire to not overload rookie change-of-pace RB Jahmyr Gibbs, I'm anticipating a similar game plan here.
It might be worth it to wait until inactives are released to make this bet, though. Star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable with an illness, and his absence would dampen the expectation for the Detroit offense.
This total keeps going down on Monday, which is fine by me. BetMGM and FanDuel are all the way down to 45.5 as of 6:30 p.m. ET.
Last week, Gibbs was fed a decent amount with 11 carries, but that was with the Lions trailing heavily all game long.
This week, Gibbs matches up against the Raiders, who have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. Also, Detroit is a 7.5-point favorite, which means it should be in control of the clock and looking to establish the ground game.
The Lions will be without David Montgomery again this week, and while Craig Reynolds will steal some work from Gibbs, Gibbs going to get the lion's share of the work here.
This line has moved significantly, all the way up to 71.5 as of 4:40 p.m. ET, but I would hit this all the way up to 72.5.
This is a rather simple handicap in a prop market that has not fully adjusted for the rookie tight end's role.
LaPorta has gone under this receiving mark only twice this season. The Raiders defense does not have the personnel to slow down his momentum, having allowed a 75.6% catch rate to opposing tight ends this season. That number ranks them 22nd in the league defending the position, and DVOA matches that number exactly since Vegas is 22nd in DVOA against the tight end position specifically.
The Raiders defense hasn't faced any of the NFL's elite tight ends this season. The only tight end ranking in the top 15 in the league in receiving yards that Las Vegas had to try to limit was rookie Dalton Kincaid back in Week 2. Kincaid was in a part-time role but still tallied five receptions for 43 yards in that game.
LaPorta's usage in Ben Johnson's scheme should allow him to exceed those numbers rather easily. I'd bet LaPorta's receiving yards over up to 47.5.
By Ricky Henne
The Raiders are thrilled to get Jimmy Garoppolo back this week, and perhaps no one is more excited than Michael Mayer.
The last time we saw Garoppolo under center back in Week 6, the rookie tight end broke out in a big way, catching all four passes thrown his way for 67 yards. That production all came in a single half as Garoppolo missed the rest of that game and the next with his back injury.
The Raiders figure to be in a negative game script against the Lions, and I like Mayer's chances of being involved. Detroit gives up an average of 6.14 catches per game to tight ends, which is the third most in the NFL.
Mayer has only 10 catches all year, but considering the rapport that he and Garoppolo showed when they last took the field together, three catches feels like a very attainable mark against Detroit’s defense.
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