Last week, the Lions had a classic throw-the-tape-away game. This is a perfect spot to rebound though. At home, on primetime, and it would provide excellent momentum heading into the bye.
The Raiders are also coming off their worst game of the season however to a much lesser opponent. Las Vegas was crushed by Chicago and that was despite the Bears starting Tyson Bagent.
The Raiders' strength of schedule is .392 and strength of victory is .304. This Raiders team has not played well, but they have three wins because of a cupcake schedule. This will be the second time they face a legitimate team vying for a conference title. The first was Buffalo, and the Bills beat the breaks off Vegas. For our script, I am going to expect something similar.
Let’s build a parlay to reflect that view.
Raiders vs. Lions Same Game Parlay
Monday Night Football Parlay (+850 at FanDuel):
- Lions 1st Half -4.5
- Alt Under 48.5
- Jakobi Meyers Over 4.5 Receptions
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 100.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
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Lions 1st Half -4.5
First-half spreads have been excellent for the Lions all year as they are 5-2 against the spread. In the second half they typically revert to a more conservative game script and their against-the-spread performance reflects it. Detroit is 3-4 against the second-half spread.
Fortunately, while Detroit rocks in the first half, the Raiders struggle miserably. Vegas is 2-5 against the first-half spread.
This fits in perfectly with our game script too. Detroit will come out strong and build a comfortable lead against the Raiders and then coast to a victory.
The data supports it and Dan Campbell is the perfect hype guy to rebound strong from a loss. This is my favorite pick of the parlay and will be playing it solo in addition to building our script around it.
Alt Under 48.5
The Raiders have stayed under this number in every game this season, so no fear there. Especially since they score the third-fewest points per game in the NFL.
As for the Lions, their games have either been shootouts or blowouts, and nothing in between. The spread suggests a big discrepancy and I have already mentioned that I believe the Raiders are overrated.
I expect this game to be similar to Detroit’s games against Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Those teams had strong defenses and limited offenses. Right in line with how the Raiders play.
The Raiders defense specializes against the pass too thanks to Maxx Crosby’s elite pass rush play. Vegas is 10th in net yards per attempt allowed. However, they struggle against the run ranking 21st in yards per carry allowed. An excellent combo when you are taking an under.
Jakobi Meyers Over 4.5 Receptions
If the Raiders are down, they will be throwing to catch up. No player benefits from negative game scripts more than Meyers. His constant targeting has even caused frustration for his teammate Davante Adams.
Meyers has hit this mark in five of his six games and built strong connections with all of the Raiders' quarterbacks. The volume has been there too, far beyond what he would need to get five catches. In four of his six games, Meyers has received 10 or more targets.
Meyers being a favorite among Josh McDaniels may frustrate fantasy owners but is something we can use to our advantage.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 100.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
The final piece to the Lions taking their foot off the gas is the overutilization of their running back. Dan Campbell mentioned Gibbs receiving the lion's share of the workload last week and he did not disappoint. Gibbs played 87% of the snaps and finished with 116 yards and a touchdown. The game script was different, but I expect a similar level of utilization this week.
However, this time I expect a higher share of runs and fewer catches. Betting total yards allows us to catch either side though. Gibbs has averaged 4.94 yards per carry and if they are winning, he should receive between 15-20 carries. With his speed, he will just need one big burst and this will hit. Against a poor run defense, that is even more likely.
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