Rams vs Lions Odds, Picks, Player Props: NFL Playoffs Best Bets
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 53 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 53 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Rams vs. Lions Pick
Nick Giffen: The Luck Difference of eight and Luck Gap of 9.5% are the second-largest of Wild Card Weekend, plus we get the bonus that the Rams are the unlucky team on the road, which has traditionally shown stronger signals than home unlucky teams.
For me, that gives this game a slight luck-based lean on the Rams, but I also like them for other reasons — namely their improved efficiency when all of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, and Puka Nacua are on the field together.
The Luck Total of -4.2 does make the under a bit interesting from a luck perspective, but I'm not quite there on the under yet. While 78% of the Bets are on the over, 50% of the money is on the under showing the under is the sharper side. That said, my model has this at around 51.25 and our PRO Projections are at 51.1.
I'm going to wait this one out and hope the public continues to bet this total up.
Verdict: Lean Rams +3.5; monitor the under
Rams vs Lions Player Props
QB Jared Goff
Under 1.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Chris Raybon: Goff has recorded positive rushing yardage in only five gamers. Nineteen of his 31 carries this season have been kneel-downs, and he has scrambled on only 1.1% of his dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus. The Lions are favored at home, so Goff is also the more likely of the two quarterbacks in this game to get kneel-downs.
Bet to: 0.5
Brock Wright
Anytime TD (+650)
It was a bummer to see Sam LaPorta go down with an injury in Week 18. His status is up in the air for Sunday night — if he doesn’t play, I’d consider Brock Wright at +450. The Rams were 23rd in DVOA vs. the pass, 23rd in DVOA vs. TEs and gave up eight TDs to the position.
Wright has been nursing a hip injury so he may be a bit rusty, but we’ve seen him catch TDs in this offense prior to LaPorta’s arrival (four TDs in 2022) so I’d take a swing on him before betting on someone like James Mitchell at +310. Only bet Mitchell if he’s +500 or better.
