Ravens vs Browns Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -122 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +104 |
We open the NFL Week 4 main slate by breaking down Ravens vs. Browns odds.
Baltimore and Cleveland will face off on Sunday in the "Injury Report Game of the Week" in the NFL. Deshaun Watson was limited in practice all week and is now out as of Sunday morning. Dorian Thompson-Robinson will make his first NFL start in his place. Baltimore, meanwhile, was dealing with a handful of key injuries with 11 players on Friday's injury report.
Let's break down the matchup and make our Ravens vs. Browns pick.
Ravens vs. Browns
Matchup Analysis
Editor's note: Deshaun Watson is reportedly not going to play in this game. Rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start. The Browns were 2.5-point favorites before the Watson news on Sunday morning; after the news, the line moved all the way to Ravens -1.5.
The Ravens appeared to be getting Ronnie Stanley back from injury early in the week, but he didn't practice on Friday and is now listed as doubtful. The Browns' elite pass rush should be able to put pressure on Lamar Jackson as a result of Stanley's absence. Tyler Linderbaum is expected to be back at center, but the Ravens couldn't block Indianapolis last week and will have even more problems in this matchup.
The Colts blitzed Lamar Jackson on 40% of his dropbacks Sunday, with major success. Gus Bradley isn’t known for blitz-heavy schemes, but I’m sure that Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz took notice of the Colts' success last week.
Jackson is 6-of-16 for the year with just 3.5 yards per attempt when pressured. The Colts defensive line ranks eighth in the league in pass rush win rate at 50%, tied with the Browns through three weeks. And the Colts don’t have a game-wrecker near the quality of defensive end Myles Garrett.
The Browns can bring pressure because the Ravens will not have Odell Beckham or Rashod Bateman, two of their top four receiving options. Jackson has excelled as a runner this year, but his play from the pocket has been mostly up and down.
Cleveland’s offense got a vintage performance out of Watson at Tennessee, but he won't be on the field on Sunday. Besides, even if he were, it’s important we don’t overreact to one game. Watson is still a bottom-five quarterback in efficiency, net yards per attempt and success rate since he returned from suspension midway through last season.
Bet Baltimore vs. Cleveland at FanDuel
You won't see Cleveland throwing down the field nearly as much, regardless of the quarterback.
There are two key positives for the Ravens defense in this game. Baltimore had both Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams as full participants in Friday practice. Both are listed as questionable, but I would expect both to play on Sunday. That would be a major boost for a secondary that might get to face a rookie quarterback.
Even though the Ravens lost to Gardner Minshew, it wasn't because of the defense. The Ravens conceded 3.9 yards per play and Hamilton had three sacks in the game.
The run defense was stout and now the Browns' rushing efficiency is sure to take a hit without Nick Chubb.
Ravens vs. Browns
Betting Picks & Predictions
The Browns defense has played three games against the Steelers, Bengals and Titans, so they haven't exactly faced an above-average offense yet. I'm not a buyer that this is some historic defense, but it's clearly a top-five unit.
Cleveland has only allowed one drive to enter the red zone all year and it ended in zero points for the Titans. The first two games, neither offense snapped the ball inside the Browns' 25-yard line.
The Browns' defensive success rate allowed is 25%, which is 11% better than every other defense in the NFL. The No. 2 defense? Baltimore.
Two elite, healthier defenses in a divisional tilt with both offenses shorthanded from an injury perspective. I know that the total has come down from the 42.5 opener and blasted through the key number of 41, but I'm not sure it has dropped far enough.
Baltimore was an excellent teaser option to get over the full touchdown, but with all the line movement, I'm going to bet the under at 39 or better.
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