Buccaneers vs Texans Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 40 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 40 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Buccaneers vs. Texans odds have Houston laying a field goal in NFL Week 9 with the total sitting steadily at 40.
The Buccaneers and Texans both need a win. The Bucs have lost three straight games after jumping out to a strong start to the season. Meanwhile, the C.J. Stroud and the Texans are coming off of a loss to Bryce Young and the Panthers in the battle of the top two quarterbacks selected in this year’s draft.
Let's preview the game and get into my Buccaneers vs. Texans prediction below.
Buccaneers vs. Texans
Matchup Analysis
The Texans have had a strong start to the season, largely due to the early success of C.J. Stroud.
So far this season, he has been the clear top rookie QB despite losing to Bryce Young last week. Among qualified quarterbacks, Stroud is 16th in EPA+CPOE composite, making him a perfectly average starting quarterback in the NFL. For a rookie who has been asked to start from Day 1, that is a very impressive feat.
Stroud will be going up against a Bucs pass defense that has been middle of the road so far at 15th in pass defense DVOA. Not to compare Stroud to Josh Allen, but we saw the Bucs secondary get shredded by the Bills' passing attack last week. Stroud’s relationship with Tank Dell, as well as the emergence of Nico Collins and Noah Brown, makes this Texans passing attack the real deal.
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On the ground, the Texans have struggled mightily. They have not the run ball well at all, largely due to some offensive line injuries, as well as the disappointing regression of Dameon Pierce.
Pierce is going to be out this week, leaving Devin Singletary to take the majority of the carries. I think this is an upgrade for the Texans, who are finally starting to get healthy on the offensive line. I don’t think they’ll try to run much on the Bucs, given how good their passing game has been. But if they do, it should be more effective than what we've seen thus far.
Bet Tampa Bay vs. Houston at FanDuel
The Bucs are dealing with some major offensive line issues, and that is bad news for Baker Mayfield.
When blitzed, Mayfield is good at moving out of the pocket and making plays. However, if he gets pressured without the defense bringing a blitz, he really struggles. The Texans do a great job of rushing the passer and they should be able to get after Mayfield with just four guys, leaving plenty of defenders back to cover the Bucs’ great weapons.
The Texans have been flat out the much better team this season. In overall DVOA, the Texans are 16th and the Bucs are 23rd.
There is also a major special teams edge in this game. The Texans have a top-10 unit, currently ranked ninth in special teams DVOA. Meanwhile, the Bucs are 27th.
Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn has not missed a kick inside of 50 yards this season, and that could be the difference in a game with a short spread.
Buccaneers vs. Texans
Betting Picks & Predictions
The fact that you are getting the better team at home by less than three points is a rare treat in the NFL, and I can’t pass up the opportunity here.
Stroud and the Texans’ passing attack should have a good amount of success against the Bucs defense. Additionally, the Texans' pass rush should be able to get after Baker Mayfield and create turnovers and negative plays.
I’m going with the Texans -2.5 in this spot and would play it to -3. Use our live NFL odds page to make sure you grab Texans -2.5 if it's available.
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