Taylor Swift fans, today is the day. After a night on the town in New York City last night, Taylor Swift is officially in the building for Chiefs-Jets.
Taylor Swift, Ryan Reynolds, and Hugh Jackman are in the building for SNF 🌟
(via @DMRussini)
pic.twitter.com/UxRTWzLep0— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 1, 2023
Here's the thing. Football is amazing. But for a lot of Swifties, it's not a regular part of their week.
I know so many Taylor Swift fans who tuned into the game last week in hopes of Swift getting some screen time — but when she wasn’t on screen, they were a little bored. And there are probably others who want to try betting on sports for the first time because of the Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce connection.
If the Swifties are going to tune into Sunday Night Football, they might need a rooting interest, especially because the Jets aren’t the most entertaining team. (I’ll leave it at that; I don’t want to be mean.)
So this is me trying to help my fellow Swifties who are either relatively new NFL fans or have been watching football for ages and are looking to get into betting for the first time. This is our beginners' guide to betting on the NFL, with a Taylor Swift twist. We'll walk you through how to sign up at a sportsbook, how to use a bonus code when you deposit, and then how to bet and which bets to make, with a heavy dose of Travis Kelce player props.
I have two reasons why – one: for the money, two: for the show. Although really, we're in this for the fun. Betting on an NFL game is almost like buying a movie ticket that gets you fully invested in the entertainment for a few hours, except this movie ticket could possibly win you some money at the end of the show.
Before we get into any of the details of how we're going to bet on Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, then, let’s jump into some quick sports betting 101.
Taylor Swift Fans, Here's How to Bet on the NFL (and Travis Kelce) for Swifties
If you're new to sports betting, the first thing you need to do — assuming you are in a state with legal sports betting — is open an account at one of the sportsbooks in your state. (If you already have signed up at sportsbooks and you're just looking for our Taylor Swift-inspired bets for Sunday Night Football, click here to jump down to the bets!)
For a step-by-step guide on how to sign up at sportsbooks, click here. Also, look for your state on our bonus and promos page here, so you can take advantage of one of the new user offers and potentially get some bonus bets!
Once your account is created, you’ll need to deposit some money. Don’t feel like you have to deposit or bet crazy amounts — I typically bet between $5 and $20 on any given bet, and you could do even less if you want. It's all about what will allow you to have fun by renting a rooting interest.
Now, it’s time to place a bet.
You'll either need to download the app from the sportsbook you picked or visit their website and log in. Most people use the apps, but there's nothing wrong with using the website. For simplicity's sake, we'll use website screenshots below to help guide you.
There are a lot of different numbers that all mean different things at these sportsbooks, and you might get a little intimidated. But stick with me here, because I promise sports betting isn't as complicated as Joe Shmo at the bar made it seem when he told you every detail of his 7-leg parlay.
First, you’ll have to understand how to read American odds. You can watch this video for a complete understanding, but I’ll try to explain it simply here.
The numbers you see on the odds, like -110, dictate the payout based on your bet if you win — and if you do win your bet, you always get the amount you bet back, PLUS the winnings. Keep that in mind.
The odds are based around $100. Basically, if it's a minus number bet, that's how much you have to bet to win $100 in winnings. If it's a plus number bet, that's how much you would win in winnings if you bet $100. But you do NOT have to bet $100. You can bet $1 if you want. The math is just based around $100 and scales from there.
The winnings on a minus odds bet, like that -110, will be less than the amount you bet, and how much less depends on the number. The bigger the number after the minus sign, the less you win relative to the amount you bet, yet the more likely it is to happen. (And remember, you get the amount you bet back, too, if your bet wins!)
The winnings on a plus odds bet are more than the amount you bet (plus your bet back). The bigger the number after the plus sign, the more you win. The bigger the number on a plus odds bet, the less likely it is to happen.
The most common odds you’ll see on your screen are -110. This means you would have to bet $11 dollars to win $10, or $110 to win $100 if you're a fancy high-roller.
As we mentioned, you will also see some odds starting with a plus sign. A bet with +100 odds means you bet $10 to win $10 in winnings. This is known as "even money." If you bet $10 on a bet with +150 odds, you would win $15, and get your $10 back. If you bet $100 on a bet with +150 odds, you would win $150, plus your initial $100 back.
It’s important to note that different books can have different odds for things, so you always want to shop around to see where you can get the best odds.
As a specific example, right now, Travis Kelce is -120 to score a touchdown at bet365, meaning you’d have to bet $12 to win $10. If he were -150, like he is at FanDuel, you would have to bet $15 to win that same $10.
And now, the fun part …
What should we bet on for Sunday Night Football?
There are all different kinds of bets you can place. If you want to learn more, check out this video. Very briefly, there are four common types of bets — the spread, the moneyline, the total and props.
The spread essentially tells us who the oddsmakers favor to win and how many points they think they’ll win by. The minus number is the favorite, and the plus number is the underdog. The Chiefs are -8.5, which means they are favored to win by 8.5 points. The .5 is there to avoid ties. If they win by 9 or more, they cover the spread. If they don't, the Jets cover.
The moneyline is simply which team will win and the odds of them winning, regardless of by how many points, and the total is how many points both teams will score combined. You can bet on more or less points than that being scored, and that's called the over/under.
Moneyline, spread and total are all great things to bet on, but if I’m a betting woman, I’d bet you’re most interested in Travis Kelce props. To get to those on bet365, scroll down to the Chiefs vs. Jets game on the NFL page, click on it, the click "Player Props" near the top of the screen:
Once you're on the player props page, you'll see a bunch of bets, most of which have options for Travis Kelce, like the touchdown scorer bets, where you can bet on Kelce (or other players) to score the first TD, the last TD or a TD at anytime, for example.
That last one will matter here in a second, as I once again went to the masterminds at Action Network for some advice on betting Travis Kelce this weekend. As a quick disclaimer, because of all the hype surrounding Kelce, the numbers are a bit juiced, meaning you’re not going to find much value betting his props.
Personally, I’m less concerned about value this weekend and just looking to make a few bets to add to the fun of Taylor Swift taking over Sunday Night Football. And that's perfectly OK, as long as we only bet a few dollars and know that we're in this for fun, not for profit. Again, it's like a movie ticket that can win us money!
The Travis Kelce Bets for Taylor Swift Fans in Chiefs vs Jets
Travis Kelce Anytime TD -120 (bet365)
As a reminder, the -120 means you bet $12 to win $10 in winnings, or $6 to win $5, etc. It also means oddsmakers think there’s a pretty good chance this could happen, and I don’t disagree.
Last week, our analysts had some concerns that because the Chiefs were facing the Bears, they may not need Kelce too much to win. The Chiefs were up 34-0 at halftime, and I’ll admit I was a little worried we wouldn’t see much of Kelce in the second half, but Patrick Mahomes wasn’t going to let him miss out on finding the holy ground that is the end zone with Taylor Swift in attendance.
In fact, Mahomes basically said as much after the game: “Yeah, I heard she was in the house. I felt a little bit of pressure. So I knew I had to get it to Trav.”
"I heard she was in the house… so I knew I had to get the ball to Travis." @PatrickMahomes joined @ErinAndrews after the @Chiefs blow out win with Taylor Swift in the building 💪 #ChiefsKingdompic.twitter.com/skZ98xVRCO
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 24, 2023
It’s nice to have a friend, isn’t it?
Why do I bring up last week when talking about this week? Well, the Jets offense is … bad. The Chiefs probably don’t need Kelce to pull off the win — but I can’t help but think Mahomes may try to feed Kelce the ball again.
Our head of predictive analytics, Sean Koerner, projects Kelce to have a 50/50 chance of scoring in front of Taylor Swift on Sunday Night Football. That's a bit lower than the chance implied by these odds, but it's close enough that we can feel good about rooting for this one.
If you are placing this bet at bet365, be sure to use our bet365 bonus code when you sign up!
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards + Receptions (Multiple sportsbooks)
You can also bet Travis Kelce to go over or under 73.5 receiving yards and to go over or under 6.5 receptions, and this could be a chance for us to emotionally hedge our touchdown bet. It's also perfect for the chance Kelce doesn't have to do much in the second half.
Why? Koerner projects Kelce to have about six catches for 66.5 yards on Sunday. He also projects that there's a 60% chance Kelce goes under that 6.5 catches number. That means we have two choices: Keep betting on Kelce to impress and go over, or bet the under and root for a Chiefs blowout and an early Kelce touchdown.
I'm going to go with the unders because Koerner is a fellow Swiftie whom I trust completely, but I'll leave this one up to you!
"All You Had To Do Was Stay" Parlay…
If you’re feeling a bit fearless, maybe you want to attempt a little parlay. Parlays have longer odds because they are harder to win – you only win your bet if everything you put in the parlay hits. They're a little closer to a lottery ticket, but the payoff can be fun.
There’s not much value in betting the Chiefs to win the game (a moneyline bet) as a straight bet, since they are such big favorites, but it does get us to plus odds when you parlay it with the Kelce anytime touchdown at bet365.
I already loved the Kelce anytime touchdown bet, and I feel great about the Chiefs on Sunday. Mahomes is 19-0 straight up on the road/at a neutral site as a favorite of over five points in his career. He’s also won nine straight SNF starts dating back to 2021.
As a disclaimer, parlays aren’t smart bets and are purely for entertainment. But with stats like that, I certainly won’t be filled with regret thinking I should’ve said no to the parlay if it does lose.
Everything Has Changed…
… since Taylor Swift took over the NFL. You might notice that some books even have Travis Kelce specials this week and other Swiftie-inspired bets (thanks Taylor!). Personally, I don’t usually bet any of the book specials unless one of our analysts has shown there’s value. With that said, you don’t always have to bet based on value. You can just place a bet for fun, and if that’s what you want to do for Sunday, I totally support you.
Here’s to hoping we all have the best day on Sunday! Again, if you need help signing up at a sportsbook, head over to our "How To" guide that has everything you need. We're here to help!
