We've got another doubleheader on Monday Night Football in Week 4 and serving as the appetizer to the main meal, the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins square off at 7:30 p.m. ET, just 45 minutes before the highly-anticipated Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions.
So, how do we go about building our Titans vs. Dolphins parlay?
I'll be frank. This is going to be an ugly game. The Dolphins are down to Snoop Huntley at quarterback, with Tua Tagovailoa sidelined and Skylar Thompson nursing an injury himself. Miami scored just three points last week, so I guess the positive is it can't really get worse.
That's at least what the Titans are telling themselves, looking for win No. 1. Will Levis' struggles have been highly publicized throughout social media, but this feels like as good a time as any to right the ship.
Miami enters as a short 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 37.5 that continues to drop. I'm here to help guide you through this game from a betting standpoint and concocted a three-leg same-game parlay with +700 odds at bet365. So, without further ado, here's my Titans vs. Dolphins same-game parlay.
Titans vs. Dolphins Parlay
- Under 37.5 Points
- Tyreek Hill Over 53.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
- Tony Pollard Over 13.5 Receiving Yards
- Optional Odds Booster: DeAndre Hopkins Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Parlay Odds: +700, +4500 with boost
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 37 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 37 -110o / -110u | -135 |
Total Points Scored
Under 37.5 Points
This is setting up to be an all-time ugly Monday Night Football. The Dolphins are onto Snoop Huntley under center, while the Titans match with a backup-level quarterback of their own in Will Levis.
Huntley’s passing capabilities are extremely limited and that puts a huge dent into this Miami offense that relies on explosiveness and getting their stars — Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane, among others — in open space.
Given Huntley’s shortcomings, I’m expecting a more conservative play-calling out of Mike McDaniel. Less passing and more trench work, churning out the clock and establishing longer drives.
I am higher on this Titans defense than most, too. Even with their injuries piling up — Chidobe Awuzie (IR), Amani Hooker and L’Jarius Sneed (Ques.) and Jeffrey Simmons (Doubt.) — most of those affect the pass defense above all.
And to circle back, it’s not Tua under center. It’s Huntley, who averages 5.7 yards per completion in his career (342 attempts).
All that we have to hope is that Will Levis, for the fourth straight week, doesn’t pull a Will Levis. Unfortunately for head coach Brian Callahan, Levis has played an instrumental role in blowing all three games this season with poor decision-making and costly turnovers.
I also wouldn’t be shocked if Levis were benched if things take a turn for the worse yet again. Last week, Green Bay forced Tennessee into a pass-heavy offense after establishing an early lead — the Titans had to abandon the run because of it.
That should not happen against Miami, which has a bottom-five defense in terms of DVOA, for what it’s worth.
The floor is so low for both of these offenses and the early-season struggles from the Titans lead me to buy the prime-time unders trend in this one. There’s not much to be excited about here unless the Dolphins and McDaniel dig deep into their bag and run a triple option like the service academies.
Tyreek Hill Player Prop
Over 53.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Let’s pair an under with an over prop — something to help juice the odds up. While Tyreek Hill was very quiet in the post-Tua era last week (3 catches, 40 yards), expectations are so low right now.
The one thing about McDaniel and the whole ‘Shanahan Coaching Tree’ is they find creative ways to get their best players into the football. We should see a heavy dose of Achane, but I would expect more than just three receptions from arguably the most explosive player in the sport.
Plus, we saw Hill carry the ball against Buffalo just a couple of weeks ago. I would not be surprised to see him take a Deebo Samuel-esque role in the backfield and steal a carry or two.
Hill played five games without Tagovailoa before last week. In those five games, he was targeted 7+ times in four of those five games and had totaled 55+ rushing/receiving 80% of the time.
Will he break free for a 50+ yard reception? Most likely not. But the usage will still be there.
Bet365 has this prop available, but if you don't have access, I would just take his receiving yards over. Personally, I want the rushing just to cover all bases.
Tony Pollard Player Prop
Over 13.5 Receiving Yards
Why not have some fun and bet on some action while you’re rooting for punts and field goals?!
The other over a prop that I like, this time on the Titans' side of things, is Tony Pollard’s receiving yards. Through three weeks, he has proven himself as the RB1 of Tennessee’s offense and has seen a minimum of four targets in each game.
This 13.5 number still feels a touch low for Pollard, who is over in 2-of-3 games (12 in the one under). Even dating back to last season, Pollard has long been a threat in the receiving game. He ended over 13.5 receiving in six of Dallas’ last nine.
On the opposite end, the Dolphins' defense has been decent at limiting RBs in the receiving game. The run game has been a totally opposite story (4.92 YPC). But here’s the silver lining: the starting RB has been over 13.5 receiving yards in all three games this season.
I expect Levis to play it safer after the first three weeks and Pollard being a reliable safety valve should see his involvement in the receiving game remain strong.
Plus, our Action Network projections have Pollard closer to 17.9 with a mean of 20 receiving yards — a +9.4% edge based on the 13.5 number best available in the market.
Anytime Touchdown Score Boost (Optional)
DeAndre Hopkins
If you want to sprinkle on a juicer SGP, throw in a touchdown leg — but I would also bet the base three aside from this. Remember, these are long shots and we're expecting touchdowns to be far and few between. That's what leads to these odds being so juiced post-TD adds.
The scorer that I'm willing to put my trust in here is DeAndre Hopkins. This puts the parlay up to 45-1!
Hopkins was the most-targeted Titan last year in the red zone (17) and despite playing limited snaps, has the most targets (2) this season and the lone TD among wide receivers. Nuk has been nursing an injury from the preseason and saw limited action in Week 1 (27% of snaps).
But over the last couple of weeks, we've seen his workload tick up close to 50%. He's the clear second receiver in this offense and in the red zone, he should be involved in every package. I expect his usage and snap rate to continue to increase in the coming weeks and it feels as though we're getting Hopkins for a discount here.
Remember, this 45-1 is only worth a sprinkle. It's a long shot for a reason.
Parlay Odds with Boost: +4500
