Trey McBride is in the midst of a midseason breakout campaign for the Cardinals.
He is averaging 72.8 yards and a whopping 29.4% target share since Week 8, and although he failed to hit the over on this number in Week 11 against the Texans, McBride had a 100% snap count for the first time this season.
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The Rams defense has allowed the most yards per reception (12.62) and ranks 30th in DVOA against tight ends.
This is a significant weakness that opposing teams have been exploiting. Specifically, the Rams have issues defending the middle of the field, ranking 26th in DVOA against passes in that direction (per FTN Fantasy).
Based alone on sheer volume and underlying metrics, this McBride prop is too low in what should be a pass-friendly game for Kyler Murray.