Commanders vs Falcons Odds
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | -125 |
We open the main slate on Sunday for NFL Week 6 with a Commanders vs. Falcons pick.
Atlanta enters this game as short favorites against the visiting Commanders. Oddsmakers have the Falcons as 2.5-point favorites on the spread. The game total over/under can be found at 42 (via DraftKings) or 42.5 at most other books.
It has been an up-and-down season so far for both the Commanders and Falcons. However, this could be the chance for one of them to take a real step in their race for NFC playoff contention. The Falcons are very much in the mix in the wide-open NFC South, and don’t count out the Commanders when it comes to chasing a wild-card spot late in the season.
Everything bettors need to know about Commanders vs. Falcons odds for Week 6 — including the spread, total and our expert prediction — is here at Action Network.
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Commanders vs. Falcons
Matchup Analysis
Desmond Ridder is having a rocky start to his NFL career. However, he arguably played his best game as a pro in last week’s win against the Texans. Ridder threw for a career-high 329 yards, led a game-winning field goal drive and most importantly, did not turn the ball over. The Falcons outgained the Texans by over 100 yards and purely based on the box score, the game should not have been as close as it was.
The Falcons went into this season expecting to have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL with a backfield of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. They have been closer to the middle of the pack, however, as they currently sit 16th in rush offense DVOA and 19th in yards per rush attempt. To be fair, they have faced a difficult schedule of rush defenses.
If you look at the point totals the Falcons have produced this season, there is a clear trend. Through five games, they have scored 24, 25, six, seven and 21 points — three solid performances and two awful ones.
There are two obvious factors that played a big role in their two down performances. First, those two games were both on the road in Detroit and in London against Jacksonville. Second, they were the two best rush defenses they have faced this year by far, with the Lions and Jaguars ranked fourth and fifth in rush defense DVOA, respectively.
The Falcons offense looked much better at home against the Panthers, Packers and Texans, all with rush defenses ranked 22nd or worse in DVOA.
This week’s opponent, the Commanders, rank 16th in rush defense DVOA. Not quite as bad as those three opponents, but nowhere near as good as the Lions and Jaguars. The Commanders give up 4.8 yards per rush attempt, which is the sixth-worst mark in the league.
The Falcons offense should look comfortable again at home against that kind of rush defense.
Bet Washington vs. Atlanta at FanDuel
Sam Howell is another quarterback having an up-and-down start to his career.
Howell has played some good games and made some great throws, but he has had a major problem taking sacks. The Commanders are 31st in sacks allowed per game at 5.8. Only the Giants are worse at 6.0. Fortunately for Howell, the Falcons are last in sack percentage at 3.01%.
Howell’s worst game of his career, by far, was against the Bills, who lead the NFL in sack percentage. On the other hand, the game in which we saw Howell go off for 388 passing yards was against the Bears, who rank 30th in sack rate.
It’s clear that in a clean pocket, Howell can thrive and hit a lot of throws like he did against the Bears, Broncos and even Eagles. However, if he is under duress, things go south fast. He should find a good amount of success in this game against the virtually non-existent Falcons pass rush.
These two defenses rank outside the top 20 in defensive DVOA. More specifically, the Falcons won’t be able to get pressure on Howell and disrupt his game while the Commanders won’t be able to stop the Atlanta rushing attack.
Both offenses match up well with the opposing defense, and for that reason, I am taking the over in this game.
Commanders vs. Falcons
Betting Picks & Predictions
The total is relatively low as neither of these offenses are very explosive.
However, the Falcons have scored 21+ points in all three of their home games this year, and if you exclude the Bills game from the Commanders' track record, which was a significant outlier, they are averaging 26.5 PPG this year.
I expect both teams to score into the 20s and the game could go either way based on which quarterback makes a key play or avoids a crucial mistake.
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