Blue Jays vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - May 7, 2024

Blue Jays at Phillies

10:40 pm • SN1

Toronto Blue Jays

11-15

1 - 10

Philadelphia Phillies

9-18

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Sanchez			3.32	11-9
J.Berrios			3.60	16-11

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Blue Jays 11-15	-1.5+164	o8-111	-102
Phillies 9-18	+1.5-196	u8-109	-117

Tuesday 10:40 p.m.

May 07, 2024

Citizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia

PHI -113

0.88u

PHI -118

0.85u

PHI -118

1.5u

PHI -116

0.5u

Movement towards TOR w/ Realmuto/Bohm out a bit too much. Sanchez estimators about 3/4 run better than Berrios, PHI pen estimators full run better L30 days.

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-125

$1.25

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-103

0.52u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-103

1.03u

Over 8-125

0.8u

B.Bichette u1.5 Total Bases-122

C.Sanchez o4.5 Ks+148

1.01u

C.Sanchez o3.5 Ks-155

0.65u

PHI -2.5+240

1.2u

The best god dang team in baseball

PHI -1.5+160

0.8u

Best mf team in baseball

PHI -130

0.77u

Best team in baseball

TOR +120

PHI -124

0.5u

Edit: Bet to -115 after lineups

PHI -125 (F5)

0.5u

Edit: Bet to -115 after lineups

TOR +120

0.5u

TOR +105 (F5)

0.5u

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Featured Insight
Phillies hitters have a hard-hit rate of 44% over the last two weeks -- fifth best in MLB. Opponents have a hard-hit rate of 46% against the Blue Jays RPs over the last two weeks -- third worst in MLB.

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The Phillies are 115-83 (.581) since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 35-65 (.350) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .268.

The Blue Jays are just 10-68 (.128) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

Bryce Harper is slugging .500 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- 15th best in MLB-- 86th Percentile. Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 30% of the time since last season -- third highest among qualified SPs-- 92nd Percentile.

Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (218/630) this season -- highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 14% -- 100th Percentile.

Jose Berrios has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (153/374) against right-handed batters this season -- highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 14% -- 100th Percentile.

Cristopher Sanchez has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (278/567) with two-strikes since last season -- 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total CH; League Avg: 16% -- 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (88/127) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 45% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Phillies are 3-9 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Phillies' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 8 of Phillies' 15 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	5-22	2-13	3-9	4-16	1-6
Blue Jays	9-17	5-9	4-8	6-10	3-7

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Phillies	14-12-1	8-6-1	6-6	11-8-1	3-4
Blue Jays	14-12	8-6	6-6	9-7	5-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Phillies	9-18	5-10	4-8	8-12	1-6
Blue Jays	11-15	7-7	4-8	8-8	3-7

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 6th	SF	W 6-1	-1.5 W	U 7.5	PHI -234
May 5th	SF	W 5-4	+1.5 W	O 8.5	PHI -111
May 4th	SF	W 14-3	-1.5 W	O 7	PHI -172
May 3rd	SF	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	PHI -180
May 1st	@LAA	W 2-1	-1.5 L	U 8	PHI -207

Jose Berrios
SP
Berrios is out with elbow
Out
Anthony Santander
RF
Santander is out with shoulder
Out
Shane Bieber
SP
Bieber is out with elbow
Out
Bowden Francis
SP
Francis is out with shoulder
Out
Trey Yesavage
SP
Yesavage is out with shoulder
Out

Max Lazar
RP
Lazar is out with oblique
Out

Andrew Painter
SP
Andrew Painter was seen walking out to bullpen, he won't start but could be available in relief.
Questionable
Steward Berroa
RF
Berroa is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RJ.Berrios, P	90	3.2	7	8
RT.Richards, P	18	1.1	1	0
LG.Cabrera, P	15	1	1	0
RZ.Pop, P	3	1	0	0
LT.Mayza, P	22	0.2	1	2
RE.Swanson, P	5	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1G.Springer, RF	1-4	0	0
2V.Guerrero, 1B	0-3	0	0
3J.Turner, 3B	1-4	0	0
3E.Clement, 3B	0-0	0	0
4B.Bichette, SS	0-4	0	0
5D.Schneider, LF	0-3	0	0
6D.Jansen, DH	2-3	1	0
6D.Vogelbach, PH	0-1	0	0
7A.Kirk, C	1-3	0	0
8I.Kiner-Falefa, 2B	1-3	0	1
9K.Kiermaier, CF	0-2	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Sanchez, P		89	7	5	1
RS.Turnbull, P		33	2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, DH	1-4	1	0	0
2W.Merrifield, LF	1-5	0	0	0
3B.Harper, 1B	3-3	2	1	4
4N.Castellanos, RF	1-4	0	0	1
5B.Marsh, CF	0-4	0	0	0
6B.Stott, 2B	2-4	2	0	0
7E.Sosa, SS	1-3	2	0	1
8K.Clemens, 3B	2-4	2	1	4
9G.Stubbs, C	0-2	1	0	0