Braves vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - May 10, 2024

Braves at Mets

11:10 pm • SNY

Atlanta Braves

3-2

4 - 2

New York Mets

3-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
J.Quintana			3.75	10-10
C.Morton			4.19	8-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 3-2	-1.5+114	o7.5-110	-147
Mets 3-2	+1.5-135	u7.5-110	+124

Friday 11:10 p.m.

May 10, 2024

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

NYM +125

1.5u

Under 8-115

0.87u

NYM +116 (F5)

0.5u

C.Morton u5.5 Ks+120

Projection leans towards the under in this spot and +ev bet with devig odds of -108 giving value to this number

C.Morton u6.5 Ks-160

1.6u

Over 7.5-109

Under 8-110

ATL o2.5 Team Total (F5)+120

$1.22

A.Riley o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-115

0.87u

O.Albies o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-125

0.8u

M.Ozuna o1.5 Total Bases+144

Under 8-115

0.5u

Over 7.5-115

0.58u

Bet to 8 (-112)

NYM +132

0.5u

I'm willing to concede a sizeable starting pitching edge to Atlanta here, but offense has been closer than anyone would expect (ATL 115 v LHP, NYM 105 v RHP) with the home team having the better defense and better bullpen estimators L30 days by more than 1/3 of a run.

Featured Insight
The Braves have allowed just 1.1 runs per game in close and late situations since last season -- fifth lowest in MLB (130 games). The Mets have scored just 0.9 runs per game in close and late situations since last season -- third lowest in MLB (125 games).

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The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .426.

Francisco Lindor is batting just .171 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- fourth worst in MLB-- third Percentile. Charlie Morton has thrown a breaking pitch 50% of the time since last season -- second highest among qualified SPs-- 97th Percentile.

Marcell Ozuna has 6 home runs on breaking pitches this season -- tied for most in MLB-- 100th Percentile. Edwin Diaz has thrown his slider 58% of the time this season -- eighth highest among qualified RPs-- 96th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 54% of the time (91/169) with two-strikes this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total CB; League Avg: 15% -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 1-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Mets' 3 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	3-2	2-1	1-1	3-2	N/A
Braves	3-2	3-2	N/A	3-2	N/A

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	1-4	1-2	0-2	1-4	N/A
Braves	0-5	0-5	N/A	0-5	N/A

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	3-2	2-1	1-1	3-2	N/A
Braves	3-2	3-2	N/A	3-2	N/A

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 7th	@STL	W 7-5	+1.5 W	O 8.5	NYM +105
May 6th	@STL	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 8.5	NYM +114
May 5th	@TB	L 6-7	-1.5 L	O 7	TB -108
May 4th	@TB	L 1-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	TB -110
May 3rd	@TB	L 8-10	+1.5 L	O 8	TB +124

Francisco Lindor
SS
Lindor is questionable with hand
Questionable

Tylor Megill
SP
Megill is out with elbow
Out
Justin Hagenman
SP
Hagenman is out with ribs
Out

Joey Wentz
RP
Wentz is out with knee
Out
Sean Murphy
C
Murphy is out with hip
Out
Ha-Seong Kim
SS
Kim is out with finger
Out
Spencer Strider
SP
Strider is out with oblique
Out
Spencer Schwellenbach
SP
Schwellenbach is out with elbow
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
SP
Smith-Shawver is out with elbow
Out
Hurston Waldrep
SP
Waldrep is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Morton, P	99	7	7	1
LA.Minter, P	13	1	3	0
RR.Iglesias, P	23	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	1-5	1	1	1
2O.Albies, 2B	1-3	1	1	1
3A.Riley, 3B	1-3	1	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	1-4	1	1	2
5M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	0	0	0
6A.Duvall, LF	1-3	0	0	0
7M.Harris, CF	0-4	0	0	0
8T.d'Arnaud, C	1-3	0	0	0
9O.Arcia, SS	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Quintana, P	85	5	3	4
RY.Ramirez, P	25	2	3	0
RA.Houser, P	32	2	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, LF	1-4	0	0	0
2S.Marte, RF	0-3	1	0	0
3F.Lindor, SS	1-4	1	1	1
4P.Alonso, 1B	2-4	0	0	1
5J.Martinez, DH	0-4	0	0	0
6J.McNeil, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
7H.Bader, CF	0-3	0	0	0
8B.Baty, 3B	0-2	0	0	0
8T.Taylor, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8J.Wendle, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
9T.Nido, C	0-3	0	0	0