Brewers vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - May 7, 2024

Brewers at Royals

11:40 pm • BSWI

Milwaukee Brewers

3-6

6 - 5

Kansas City Royals

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
S.Lugo			3.01	16-9
C.Rea			4.29	12-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Brewers 3-6	+1.5-181	o9-122	+112
Royals 0-0	-1.5+150	u9-101	-130

Tuesday 11:40 p.m.

May 07, 2024

Kauffman StadiumKansas City

MIL +105

MIL o4.5 Team Total+102

0.51u

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-128

0.64u

S.Lugo u5.5 Ks-150

0.67u

Ballpark pal projects 4.8 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -206 giving value to this number

MIL +114

0.57u

Bet to +110

Featured Insight
Brewers won 57% of their games last season -- fifth best in MLB. Royals won just 35% of their games last season -- second worst.

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Featured Insight
Royals have a strikeout rate of 27% vs left-handed batters over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB. Brewers left-handed hitters have struck out 36% against RHP over the last week -- highest in MLB.

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The Brewers are 46-14 (.767) when they've hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .691.

The Royals are just 10-54 (.156) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.

The Brewers are 63-48 (.568) after a win since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .509.

Vinnie Pasquantino has struck out in just 10% of PA's over the last two weeks -- tied for 14th lowest in MLB-- 93rd Percentile. Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 11% vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks -- fourth lowest among qualified SPs-- fifth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .036 (1-for-28) against Seth Lugo with two-strikes over the last 14 days -- best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .159 -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (45/242) against Colin Rea this season -- tied for 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% -- eighth Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (19/107) against Seth Lugo this season -- 4th lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 25% -- eighth Percentile.

Colin Rea has a strikeout rate of just 16% (23 SO in 144 PAs) this season -- 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- eighth Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Royals are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Royals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Royals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	82-80	38-43	44-37	32-38	49-40
Brewers	88-74	40-41	48-33	43-53	44-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Royals	71-90-1	31-50	40-40-1	30-40	41-47-1
Brewers	77-80-5	38-40-3	39-40-2	50-44-2	27-35-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	82-80	43-38	39-42	40-30	40-49
Brewers	97-65	52-29	45-36	59-37	37-28

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 6th	MIL	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	KC -140
May 5th	TEX	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 8.5	TEX +114
May 4th	TEX	L 4-15	+1.5 L	O 8.5	TEX -108
May 3rd	TEX	W 7-1	+1.5 W	U 8.5	KC -119
May 1st	@TOR	W 6-1	+1.5 W	U 8	KC +120

Easton McGee
SP
McGee is out with arm
Out
Garrett Mitchell
CF
Mitchell is out with oblique
Out
Coleman Crow
SP
Crow is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Rea, P	65	4.2	2	4
LH.Milner, P	22	1.1	3	0
RT.Vieira, P	15	0.2	1	1
LJ.Koenig, P	19	1.1	0	0
RT.Megill, P	8	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1S.Frelick, RF	1-3	0	0	0
1A.Monasterio, PH	1-2	0	0	1
1A.Monasterio, 3B	1-2	0	0	1
1A.Monasterio, LF	1-2	0	0	1
2W.Contreras, C	2-5	1	0	0
3T.Black, DH	1-3	0	0	0
3G.Sanchez, PH	0-1	1	0	0
3G.Sanchez, DH	0-1	1	0	0
4W.Adames, SS	1-4	1	1	3
5B.Turang, 2B	2-5	0	0	0
6R.Hoskins, 1B	1-5	1	1	1
7J.Ortiz, 3B	1-3	1	1	1
7J.Bauers, RF	1-1	0	0	0
8J.Chourio, LF	1-3	0	0	0
8O.Dunn, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8O.Dunn, 3B	0-1	0	0	0
9B.Perkins, CF	1-4	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RS.Lugo, P	77	6.2	5	3
LA.Zerpa, P	13	0.1	1	0
RJ.Schreiber, P	27	1	2	0
RJ.McArthur, P	30	1	0	3

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Garcia, 3B	1-5	0	0
2B.Witt, SS	2-4	2	0
3V.Pasquantino, 1B	3-5	1	3
4S.Perez, C	1-4	0	1
5M.Massey, 2B	1-4	0	0
6H.Renfroe, RF	0-4	0	0
7M.Melendez, DH	1-4	1	0
8N.Velazquez, LF	1-4	0	0
8G.Hampson, LF	0-0	0	0
9K.Isbel, CF	2-4	1	1