Mets vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - May 21, 2024

Mets at Guardians

10:10 pm • SNY

New York Mets

39-23

6 - 7

Cleveland Guardians

33-27

pitcher		team	era	w-l
X.Curry			5.84	0-2
A.Houser			5.84	1-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 39-23	+1.5-198	o9-120	+102
Guardians 33-27	u0.5	-1.5+164	u9+100	-121

Tuesday 10:10 p.m.

May 21, 2024

Progressive FieldCleveland

F.Lindor o1.5 Total Bases-110

1.5u

NYM +108

Under 9.5-113

1.13u

J.Martinez o1.5 Total Bases+100

Projection leans to the over

A.Houser u3.5 Ks-170

Projection leans to the under and +ev bet with devig odds of -252

C.Carrasco u16.5 Outs-110

1.1u

Under in 6/9 starts - frequently with a short hook the third time through the order (1.051 OPS allowed). Struggles more vs lefties, and should see 5 of them today. Guardians bullpen is rested with an off day coming on Thursday. Also, we have some fantastic hitting conditions in Cleveland today.

Over 9-115

0.5u

Bet to -120 or 9.5 (-101)

CLE -112

0.5u

Bet to -115

Under 9-105

0.53u

Featured Insight
Mets hitters have a groundball rate of 51% over the last week -- tied for highest in MLB. Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Guardians over the last week -- fourth lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Guardians have struck out just 15% over the last week -- lowest in MLB. Mets have a strikeout rate of just 19% over the last week -- fifth lowest in MLB.

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The Mets are just 9-47 (.161) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.

The Mets are just 4-90 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.

The Guardians are 13-75 (.148) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .102.

Brett Baty has an OPS of just .602 since last season -- 15th worst among hitters with at least 309 total PA's-- fourth Percentile. Emmanuel Clase has allowed an OPS of just .556 (389 PAs) since last season -- 13th best among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Brett Baty has an OPS of just .600 since the 2022 season -- 10th worst among hitters with at least 552 total PA's-- third Percentile. Emmanuel Clase has allowed an OPS of just .502 (660 PAs) since the 2022 season -- fifth best among qualified RPs-- 97th Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has walked 11 of 81 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season -- tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% -- sixth Percentile.

Adrian Houser has a strikeout rate of just 11% (17 SO in 157 PAs) this season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 17 total IP; League Avg: 22% -- 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 3% (1/31) against Adrian Houser over the last 14 days -- lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 27% -- first Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 16-16 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 12 of Guardians' 28 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	30-30	14-14	16-16	11-11	19-18
Mets	32-30	18-13	14-17	21-24	11-6

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	26-31-3	12-15-1	14-16-2	12-10	14-20-3
Mets	22-39-1	11-19-1	11-20	20-24-1	2-15

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	33-27	17-11	16-16	15-7	18-19
Mets	39-23	24-7	15-16	30-15	9-8

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 20th	NYM	W 3-1	-1.5 W	U 9	CLE -125
May 19th	MIN	W 5-2	+1.5 W	U 7.5	CLE -116
May 18th	MIN	W 11-4	+1.5 W	O 7	CLE +102
May 17th	MIN	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8.5	CLE -130
May 16th	@TEX	L 0-4	+1.5 L	U 8.5	TEX +160

Ben Lively
SP
Lively is out with elbow
Out
Shane Bieber
SP
Bieber is out with elbow
Out
John Means
SP
Means is out with elbow
Out

Frankie Montas
SP
Montas is out with back
Out
Sean Manaea
SP
Manaea is out with oblique
Out
Jose Siri
CF
Siri is out with leg
Out
Nick Madrigal
3B
Madrigal is out with shoulder
Out
Christian Scott
SP
Scott is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Houser, P	72	5	4	6
LJ.Diekman, P	22	0.2	2	1
RJ.Lopez, P	16	1.1	1	0
RS.Reid-Foley, P	18	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	2-5	0	0	1
2P.Alonso, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
3B.Nimmo, LF	1-4	0	0	0
3B.Nimmo, CF	1-4	0	0	0
4J.Martinez, DH	1-4	0	0	0
5T.Taylor, CF	0-3	0	0	0
5D.Stewart, PH	0-0	1	0	0
5D.Stewart, LF	0-0	1	0	0
6S.Marte, RF	1-4	1	1	2
7M.Vientos, 3B	2-4	2	1	1
8J.McNeil, 2B	2-4	2	1	2
9T.Nido, C	1-3	0	0	0
9H.Bader, PH	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RX.Curry, P	66	4.1	2	2
RN.Sandlin, P	13	0.2	2	0
LS.Hentges, P	16	1	1	2
RH.Gaddis, P	13	1	1	0
RS.Barlow, P	19	0.2	1	2
LT.Herrin, P	4	0.1	0	0
RE.Clase, P	13	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Freeman, CF	1-3	2	0	1
2A.Gimenez, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	2-4	1	1	3
4J.Naylor, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5W.Brennan, LF	1-4	1	0	0
6K.Manzardo, DH	1-2	0	0	0
6D.Fry, PH	1-1	1	1	2
6D.Fry, DH	1-1	1	1	2
7J.Rodriguez, RF	0-4	0	0	0
8B.Naylor, C	0-2	1	0	0
9B.Rocchio, SS	1-2	1	0	1