Red Sox vs. Braves Odds & Betting Predictions - May 7, 2024

Red Sox at Braves

11:20 pm • NESN

Boston Red Sox

1-4

2 - 4

Atlanta Braves

3-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
R.Lopez			1.99	8-5
K.Crawford			4.36	9-16

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 1-4	+1.5-134	o8.5-113	+157
Braves 3-2	-1.5+113	u8.5-106	-188

Tuesday 11:20 p.m.

May 07, 2024

Truist ParkAtlanta

ATL -1-150

$1.00

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-105

$1.00

Under 8.5-101

0.99u

ATL -1.5+110

1.1u

Under 8.5+100

0.5u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-105

0.95u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-105

0.5u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)+100

Under 9-125

0.8u

BOS +140 (F5)

K.Crawford u5.5 Hits Allowed-110

0.91u

Ballpark pal projects 4.26 Hits and +ev bet with devig odds of -143 giving value to this number

Under 9-105

0.5u

Bet to -110

K.Crawford o4.5 Ks-128

0.5u

BOS +145

0.5u

MEANT TO BE FULL GAME NOT F5 - Lopez has a slight edge by estimators, Crawford by pitch modeling - ATL 129/108/80 wRC+ Hm/vRHP/L7 days, BOS 115/102/104 - defense & bullpen estimators are a wash so far. Closer than the experts think.

Featured Insight
The Red Sox have allowed just 2.5 runs per game over the last week -- tied for third lowest in MLB (6 games). The Braves have scored just 2.3 runs per game over the last week -- third lowest in MLB (6 games).

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Featured Insight
Braves RPs have a strikeout rate of 26% vs right-handed batters since last season -- fourth highest in MLB. Red Sox right-handed hitters have struck out 26% against LHP since last season -- third highest in MLB.

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MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks for Tuesday
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The Braves are 29-35 (.453) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .264.

The Red Sox are just 43-57 (.430) after a loss since the 2023 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.

The Braves are 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season -- best in MLB; League Avg: .426.

Michael Harris has a swing rate of 48% on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- second highest in MLB-- 98th Percentile. Opponents are hitting just .167 (3-for-18) against Kutter Crawford on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- ninth best among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

Reynaldo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 50% (9 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days -- best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% -- 100th Percentile.

Reynaldo Lopez has walked 32 of 186 left-handed batters (17%) since last season -- tied for 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 10% -- fourth Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Braves' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Braves' 5 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	3-2	3-2	N/A	3-2	N/A
Red Sox	1-4	N/A	1-4	1-3	0-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Braves	0-5	0-5	N/A	0-5	N/A
Red Sox	3-2	N/A	3-2	2-2	1-0

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Braves	3-2	3-2	N/A	3-2	N/A
Red Sox	1-4	N/A	1-4	1-3	0-1

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 5th	@LAD	L 1-5	-1.5 L	U 8.5	LAD -155
May 5th	@LAD	L 2-11	+1.5 L	O 8.5	LAD +164
May 4th	@LAD	L 3-4	-1.5 L	U 9	LAD -106
May 1st	@SEA	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 7	ATL -191
May 1st	@SEA	L 2-3	-1.5 L	U 7	SEA -125

Tanner Houck
SP
Houck is out with arm
Out
Triston Casas
1B
Casas is out with knee
Out
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with wrist
Out
Romy Gonzalez
1B
Gonzalez is out with shoulder
Out

Joey Wentz
RP
Wentz is out with knee
Out
Sean Murphy
C
Murphy is out with hip
Out
Ha-Seong Kim
SS
Kim is out with finger
Out
Spencer Strider
SP
Strider is out with oblique
Out
Spencer Schwellenbach
SP
Schwellenbach is out with elbow
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
SP
Smith-Shawver is out with elbow
Out
Hurston Waldrep
SP
Waldrep is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Crawford, P	87	6	6	2
LB.Bernardino, P	12	0.2	0	0
RG.Weissert, P	2	0.1	0	0
RJ.Slaten, P	22	1	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	2-5	0	0
2R.Devers, 3B	1-4	0	0
3T.O'Neill, LF	1-5	0	0
4W.Abreu, RF	0-3	1	0
5V.Grissom, 2B	1-5	1	0
6D.Smith, DH	0-4	0	0
7G.Cooper, 1B	0-3	0	0
8R.McGuire, C	1-3	0	1
9C.Rafaela, SS	2-4	0	1

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RR.Lopez, P	91	5.1	5	1
LA.Bummer, P	15	0.2	2	0
RJ.Chavez, P	15	1	0	0
RJ.Jimenez, P	12	1	1	0
RR.Iglesias, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	1-4	0	0	0
2O.Albies, 2B	0-2	1	0	0
3A.Riley, 3B	2-4	1	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	1-4	0	0	0
5M.Ozuna, DH	1-3	0	0	1
6O.Arcia, SS	0-4	0	0	1
7M.Harris, CF	0-4	0	0	0
8T.d'Arnaud, C	0-2	1	0	0
9J.Kelenic, LF	2-2	1	1	2
9A.Duvall, PH	0-0	0	0	0
9A.Duvall, LF	0-0	0	0	0