Red Sox vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - September 3, 2024

Red Sox at Mets

11:10 pm • NESN

Boston Red Sox

0-0

2 - 7

New York Mets

7-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.Peterson			2.90	10-3
K.Crawford			4.36	9-16

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 0-0	+1.5-180	o7.5-115	+110
Mets 7-6	-1.5+150	u7.5-105	-130

Tuesday 11:10 p.m.

September 03, 2024

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

Under 7.5-110

1.1u

The BOS bats have been nothing shy of embarrassing lately ranking 28th in BA the L15 days & 29th in the L7 days. They will see D. Peterson who has been the total opposite & absolutely dominant in Aug. with a 1.86 ERA. The NYM have been winning, but the bats have not been special ranking 16th in the L7 days & 18th in the L15. They will face K. Crawford who had a rough start to Aug. but has pitched well in his L3 starts vs bats much better than NYM right now (BAL, ARI, TOR). BOS has only went over 7.5 in 1 of their L6 games & NYM have gone over in 1 of their L5.

NYM -130

Under 8-115

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Mets' David Peterson has been an absolute bright star, posting a sensational 2.83 ERA this year, and an even more scintillating 2.11 over his last three outings. His lack of vulnerability to big innings can be found in the 1.08 WHIP over that time frame, as his 2.43 groundball-to-flyball ratio greatly mitigates any possibility of the long ball - a key factor in predicting a low-scoring contest. He also proved that he can take on Boston - way back he allowed two earned runs over six innings of work against the Red Sox. For their part, the Red Sox have also gotten good work from Kutter Crawford, who in his last appearance had a 3.71 ERA and a very strong 0.94 WHIP to show he can contain the Mets bats well. Speaking of bullpens, the Mets have been especially stifling, posting a 1.46 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in the last three games. Though Boston's bullpen has blown up a time or two, their season-long 3.98 ERA is decent enough to not be completely run over. On the offensive side of the ledger, both teams have been underachieving as Boston is batting .206 and the Mets .229 over their last ten games. The Red Sox have been especially weak, averaging only 2.83 runs per game and the Mets have allowed just 2.90 runs per game in that time. Additionally, historical trends between the two sides suggest under. In the last 15 meetings, the record sits at 10-3-2. Umpire Chris Segal has a tendency to see games go over the total, but strong performances on the rubber and weak outputs at the plate should outweigh this trend. Additionally, combining that with the fact that both teams have been under trends of late and with Citi Field's reputation as a pitcher-friendly park, makes the case for a low-scoring game even stronger. The under 8 looks to be a smart play given those factors.

NYM -135

0.74u

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The New York Mets come into this game on a five-game winning streak because of strong starting pitching and timely hitting. David Peterson, the starter for the Mets in this one, has been one of the main reasons for that. He is 8-1 with a 2.83 ERA in 92.1 innings this season. In his last three starts, Peterson has been even better, posting a 2.11 ERA over 21.1 innings. His ability to mix pitches effectively, particularly his slider, has kept hitters off-balance, making him a tough opponent. Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox, and he's had a problem with consistency all year long. While Crawford has compiled an 8-12 record and a 4.12 ERA, he hasn't fared all that terrific in big spots, allowing some big runs to score. He has fought his command at times - especially of late - which has allowed opponents to build the big inning. With the Mets lineup finding ways to get on base and capitalize when runners are in scoring position, Crawford could be in for a tough outing. The Mets offense has indeed been very productive of late, thanks in large part to Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso. Lindor's hitting .271 with an OPS of .835 while Alonso can still change a game with one swing of his bat, where he has accumulated 30 home runs and 78 RBIs this season. The Mets team batting average over their last five games is .267, a far cry from the run-producing problems of the Red Sox. Boston has scored only three runs in its last three games, and the team's .206 batting average over the last ten games calls into question their recent offensive struggles. The Mets bullpen has been stout, boasting a 1.46 ERA over its last 24.2 innings to slam the door on several games. Meanwhile, the Boston bullpen has been leaky, yielding a 5.33 ERA in its last 52.1 frames before allowing crucial runs. Combined with the Mets' strong home record and the Red Sox's struggles on the road, these factors make New York the clear favorite to extend their winning streak to six games.

F.Lindor o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-115

0.87u

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-120

0.83u

NRFI RECORDS L10 Crawford 6-4 Peterson 9-1

P.Alonso o0.5 HR+425

2.13u

BOS +125

BOS +118

Over 8-110

Featured Insight
The Red Sox have scored in at least three different innings in 56% of their games this season -- second highest in MLB. Mets have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 50% of their games this season -- fifth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Mets RPs have a strikeout rate of 27% this season -- highest in MLB. Red Sox have struck out 25% this season -- third highest in MLB.

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The Red Sox are just 18-19 (.486) after a home loss this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.

62% of Jarren Duran fastball strikeouts are elevated since last season -- 10th highest in MLB-- 90th Percentile. 68% of Luis Severino fastball strikeouts are elevated since last season -- tied for 12th highest among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP-- 90th Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has allowed an OPS of 1.435 (95 PA's) when he's behind in the count this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.036 -- first Percentile.

David Peterson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.2 MPH on the 156 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 87.6.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (51/162) against Kutter Crawford in two-strike counts this season -- lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% -- first Percentile.

Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 44% (99/225) against David Peterson on low non-fastballs since the 2022 season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 32% -- 0 Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 2nd	BOS	W 4-1	+1.5 W	U 8	NYM -117
Sep 1st	@CWS	W 2-0	-1.5 W	U 7.5	NYM -182
Aug 31st	@CWS	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 9	NYM -196
Aug 31st	@CWS	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 9	NYM -219
Aug 29th	@ARI	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 8	NYM +105

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
David Hamilton
IF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Crawford, P	93	6	8	2
RJ.Slaten, P	16	1	0	1
RC.Martin, P	22	1	2	4

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1R.Refsnyder, LF	1-3	0	0
1W.Abreu, PH	0-1	0	0
1W.Abreu, LF	0-1	0	0
2J.Duran, CF	1-3	1	0
3T.O'Neill, RF	1-3	0	0
4R.Devers, 3B	0-4	0	0
5R.Gonzalez, 1B	0-2	0	0
5R.Gonzalez, 2B	0-2	0	0
5E.Valdez, PH	0-0	0	1
5E.Valdez, 2B	0-0	0	1
6M.Yoshida, DH	1-4	1	0
7D.Jansen, C	1-4	0	0
8C.Rafaela, SS	0-4	0	0
9N.Sogard, 2B	1-2	0	1
9T.Casas, PH	0-2	0	0
9T.Casas, 1B	0-2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LD.Peterson, P	89	6	11	1
RJ.Butto, P	19	1	2	1
RR.Garrett, P	10	1	0	0
RR.Stanek, P	17	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	2-4	2	1	3
2B.Nimmo, CF	0-3	0	0	1
2B.Nimmo, LF	0-3	0	0	1
3M.Vientos, 3B	1-4	1	1	1
3T.Taylor, RF	0-0	0	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	2-4	1	1	2
5J.Winker, DH	0-4	0	0	0
6S.Marte, RF	0-2	0	0	0
6H.Bader, CF	0-0	0	0	0
7J.Iglesias, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
7J.Iglesias, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
8J.McNeil, LF	1-2	2	0	0
8J.McNeil, RF	1-2	2	0	0
8J.McNeil, 2B	1-2	2	0	0
9F.Alvarez, C	1-3	1	0	0