Red Sox vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - September 4, 2024

Red Sox at Mets

11:10 pm • SNY

Boston Red Sox

0-0

3 - 8

New York Mets

7-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.Megill			4.04	4-5
T.Houck			3.12	9-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 0-0	-1.5+160	o7.5-116	+100
Mets 7-6	+1.5-192	u7.5-105	-120

Wednesday 11:10 p.m.

September 04, 2024

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

NYM -115

0.25u

Small bump. Price Target now -125 after lineups

Under 7.5-105

1.05u

NYM -112

0.89u

@Zerillo

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-115

1.15u

T.Megill u16.5 Outs-130

Megill is under this line in 8/10 starts. 4.02 pitches per PA (would be bottom 15th percentile if he qualified), with a zone% that ranks 227th of 294 amongst pitchers with 50+ IP. Also struggles more vs lefties with a .798 OPS allowed and double the walk rate. The Red Sox should start 6 lefties tonight, and as a team they see the 12th most pitches per PA (and have been more patient of late).

NYM -102

0.5u

Update: Bet to -125

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The Red Sox are just 55-49 (.529) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.

The Red Sox are just 18-19 (.486) after a home loss this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.

Pete Alonso is batting just .193 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- tied for seventh worst in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Tanner Houck has thrown his slider 41% of the time since last season -- fifth highest among starting pitchers with at least 119 total SL-- 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (39/128) against Tylor Megill with runners in scoring position since last season -- tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 24% -- fifth Percentile.

Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .379 (235 PA's) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season -- 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: .330 -- 14th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has allowed an OBP of .318 (321 PA's) against right-handed batters this season -- 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 -- 16th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 3rd	BOS	W 7-2	-1.5 W	O 7.5	NYM -130
Sep 2nd	BOS	W 4-1	+1.5 W	U 8	NYM -117
Sep 1st	@CWS	W 2-0	-1.5 W	U 7.5	NYM -182
Aug 31st	@CWS	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 9	NYM -196
Aug 31st	@CWS	W 5-1	-1.5 W	U 9	NYM -219

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
David Hamilton
IF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Houck, P	84	5	7	4
RZ.Kelly, P	13	1	1	0
RJ.Slaten, P	11	1	0	0
RK.Jansen, P	28	0.1	1	4
LR.Hill, P	16	0.1	0	0
RG.Weissert, P	5	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Duran, CF	2-4	1	1
2R.Devers, 3B	0-3	0	1
3W.Abreu, RF	0-1	0	1
3R.Refsnyder, PH	1-1	0	0
3R.Refsnyder, RF	1-1	0	0
4T.O'Neill, LF	1-3	0	0
5M.Yoshida, DH	0-4	0	0
6T.Casas, 1B	0-2	0	0
7C.Wong, C	2-4	0	0
8E.Valdez, 2B	2-4	1	0
9N.Sogard, SS	1-2	1	0
9R.Gonzalez, PH	0-2	0	0
9R.Gonzalez, SS	0-2	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Megill, P	67	4	3	3
LA.Young, P	14	1	0	0
RH.Brazoban, P	18	1.1	1	0
LD.Young, P	14	1.1	1	0
RP.Maton, P	13	0.1	0	0
RE.Diaz, P	16	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	2-5	1	0	0
2B.Nimmo, LF	1-2	2	0	0
3M.Vientos, 3B	2-4	1	0	0
3J.Iglesias, PR	0-0	1	0	0
3J.Iglesias, 3B	0-0	1	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Winker, DH	1-3	2	1	4
6T.Taylor, RF	0-3	1	0	1
7J.McNeil, 2B	0-3	0	0	1
8F.Alvarez, C	1-3	0	0	1
9H.Bader, CF	0-3	0	0	1