Reds vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - May 15, 2024

Reds at Diamondbacks

7:40 pm • ARID

Cincinnati Reds

3-2

1 - 2

Arizona Diamondbacks

2-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Pfaadt			4.71	11-10
A.Abbott			3.72	10-10

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 3-2	+1.5-162	o8.5-102	+130
Diamondbacks 2-3	-1.5+136	u8.5-118	-155

Wednesday 7:40 p.m.

May 15, 2024

Chase FieldPhoenix

Under 8.5-118

ARI -146

0.68u

A.Abbott u4.5 Ks-130

0.5u

ARI -146

$1000.00

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-110

ARI -143

0.5u

ARI -145 (F5)

0.73u

B.Pfaadt u5.5 Ks+100

Ballpark pal projects 4.68 Ks and +ev bet with devig odds of -134 giving value to this number

ARI -138

0.72u

ARI -134

0.5u

Bet to -149

ARI -140 (F5)

0.7u

Bet to -151

Over 8.5-108

0.54u

Under 8.5-110

$45.45

ARI -142 (F5)

2.13u

Abbott 4.29 SIERA/2.90 xERA/93 Stuff+, Pfaadt 3.68/3.39/104 - ARI 115/142/115 wRC+ Hm/v LHP/L7 days, CIN 87/82/104 - Add one of the best defenses (ARI) facing one of the worst (CIN)

Featured Insight
Reds right-handed hitters have struck out just 17% against LHP over the last two weeks -- fourth lowest in MLB. Diamondbacks have a strikeout rate of just 17% vs right-handed batters over the last two weeks -- lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Diamondbacks have answered-back in 33% of innings after an opponent scores since the 2022 season -- fifth highest in MLB. Reds have allowed a run 33% of the time after an opposing score since the 2022 season -- fourth highest in MLB.

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MLB NRFI/YRFI Model Predictions for Wednesday
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May 15, 2024 UTC
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The Reds are 22-9 (.710) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .575.

Jake Fraley is batting .611 on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- best among hitters with at least 58 total PA's-- 100th Percentile. Brandon Pfaadt has a strike rate of 74% on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- highest among qualified SPs-- 100th Percentile.

45% of Jonathan India strikeouts are looking this season -- 11th highest in MLB-- 94th Percentile. 45% of Brandon Pfaadt strikeouts are looking this season -- second highest among qualified SPs-- 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (16/66) against Andrew Abbott on low breaking pitches since last season -- 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 49% -- first Percentile.

Andrew Abbott has walked 2 of 72 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season -- tied for best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 8% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Diamondbacks are 2-1 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Diamondbacks' 2 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	4-1	2-0	2-1	1-0	2-1
Reds	3-2	3-2	N/A	1-0	2-2

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Diamondbacks	4-1	2-0	2-1	1-0	2-1
Reds	2-3	2-3	N/A	0-1	2-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	2-3	2-0	0-3	1-0	0-3
Reds	3-2	3-2	N/A	1-0	2-2

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 15th	CIN	L 2-6	+1.5 L	U 8.5	CIN -116
May 14th	CIN	W 6-5	-1.5 L	O 9	ARI -162
May 12th	@BAL	W 9-2	+1.5 W	O 7.5	ARI +107
May 11th	@BAL	L 4-5	+1.5 W	U 9	BAL +130
May 10th	@BAL	L 2-4	+1.5 L	U 7.5	BAL +114

Nick Lodolo
SP
Lodolo is out with finger
Out
Hunter Greene
SP
Greene is out with elbow
Out

Corbin Burnes
SP
Burnes is out with elbow
Out
Lourdes Gurriel
LF
Gurriel is out with knee
Out
Merrill Kelly
SP
Kelly is out with back
Out
Blake Walston
SP
Walston is out with elbow
Out
Tyler Locklear
1B
Locklear is out with elbow
Out

Cristian Mena
SP
Mena is doubtful with shoulder
Doubtful
Adrian Del Castillo
C
Del Castillo is out with calf
Out

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PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
LA.Abbott, P		95	7	4	1
RF.Cruz, P		22	1	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1W.Benson, CF	1-4	0	0	0
2J.Fraley, RF	0-4	0	0	0
3M.Ford, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
4S.Steer, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
4S.Steer, LF	0-4	0	0	0
5J.Candelario, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
6C.Capel, DH	0-3	0	0	0
7S.Espinal, SS	1-3	1	1	1
7S.Espinal, 2B	1-3	1	1	1
8L.Maile, C	0-1	0	0	0
8E.De La Cruz, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8E.De La Cruz, SS	0-1	0	0	0
9J.Hurtubise, LF	0-2	0	0	0
9T.Stephenson, C	0-0	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Pfaadt, P	93	7	9	1
RR.Thompson, P	11	1	1	0
RP.Sewald, P	8	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Marte, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
2R.Grichuk, RF	1-3	0	0	0
2P.Smith, PH	1-1	0	0	0
2C.Carroll, PR	0-0	1	0	0
2C.Carroll, CF	0-0	1	0	0
3L.Gurriel, LF	1-3	0	0	1
4C.Walker, 1B	2-4	1	1	1
5E.Suarez, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
6G.Moreno, C	0-2	0	0	0
7B.Alexander, DH	0-3	0	0	0
8J.McCarthy, CF	0-3	0	0	0
8J.McCarthy, RF	0-3	0	0	0
9K.Newman, SS	0-3	0	0	0