Reds vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - May 2, 2023

Reds at Padres

1:40 am • BSSD

Cincinnati Reds

0-0

3 - 8

San Diego Padres

4-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Snell			2.25	14-9
L.Weaver			3.38	1-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 0-0	+1.5-110	o8.5-115	+176
Padres 4-3	-1.5-110	u8.5-105	-210

Tuesday 1:40 a.m.

May 02, 2023

PETCO ParkSan Diego

Under 8.5-105

L.Weaver o15.5 Outs+113

Cleared this in both his starts - 93 and 99 pitches - despite not pitching particularly well. Padres are slightly below league average in both wRC+ and OPS vs RHP. Plus, could have the post-Mexico affect working for us. Reds pen has pitched 4 innings in each of the last three days - long leash for Weaver expected.

L.Weaver o4.5 Ks-135

1.35u

Weaver has been able to generate a 15% swinging strike rate so the strikeouts should continue. He’s been able to get elite whiff rates on his two main pitches: fastball (37%) and changeup (59%). His curveball has been awful and the sooner he replaces that with his cutter as his 3rd pitch, the better. The Padres are a tough team to K, but after 2 games at 7400’ above sea level, Weaver’s stuff might be a bit tougher to hit as they adjust back. HP ump Paul Emmel has a pretty big strike zone as well. Projecting this closer to -170

CIN +190

0.5u

CIN +190

0.5u

Need +190 or better, same price at Wynn

CIN +1.5-105

0.53u

CIN +185

0.54u

Under 5.5 (F5)-133

1.2u

-142 on FD

The Reds are just 3-10 (.231) on the road this season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .487.

Xander Bogaerts has an OPS of .846 since last season -- 15th best in MLB-- 89th Percentile. Luke Weaver has allowed an OPS of .875 (225 PAs) since last season -- second worst among qualified RPs-- 0 Percentile.

Manny Machado has an OPS of .858 since last season -- 13th best in MLB-- 90th Percentile. Luke Weaver has allowed an OPS of .875 (225 PAs) since last season -- second worst among qualified RPs-- 0 Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 47-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 30th	SF	W 6-4	-1.5 W	U 19.5	SD -152
Apr 29th	SF	W 16-11	-1.5 W	O 15.5	SD -199
Apr 27th	@CHC	L 2-5	-1.5 L	U 8.5	CHC -174
Apr 26th	@CHC	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 8	SD -110
Apr 25th	@CHC	L 0-6	-1.5 L	U 7	CHC -106

Mason McCoy
IF
McCoy is out with back
Out

Jeimer Candelario
IF
Candelario is out with toe
Out
Stuart Fairchild
OF
Fairchild is out with thumb
Out
Matt McLain
IF
McLain is out with shoulder
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out with elbow
Out
Graham Ashcraft
P
Ashcraft is out with elbow
Out
Andrew Abbott
P
Abbott is out with shoulder
Out
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
IF
Encarnacion-Strand is out with hand
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Weaver, P	79	4.1	3	4
LA.Young, P	19	0.2	1	2
RC.Legumina, P	19	2	3	0
LR. Sanmartin, P	36	1	2	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.India, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2S.Steer, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
3S.Fairchild, LF	1-3	0	0	2
3J.Fraley, PH	0-1	0	0	0
3J.Fraley, LF	0-1	0	0	0
4T.Stephenson, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5H. Ramos, RF	0-4	0	0	0
6K.Newman, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
6K.Newman, SS	1-4	0	0	0
7N.Senzel, CF	3-4	1	1	1
7N.Senzel, 3B	3-4	1	1	1
8J. Barrero, SS	0-3	0	0	0
8C.Casali, C	0-1	0	0	0
9L.Maile, C	2-2	1	0	0
9T.Friedl, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Friedl, CF	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Snell, P	101	6	7	3
RS.Wilson, P	12	1	2	0
RD. Tapia, P	26	2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Tatis, RF	3-5	1	0	0
2M.Machado, 3B	1-4	1	0	2
3J.Soto, LF	2-4	0	0	2
4X.Bogaerts, SS	1-5	1	0	0
5M.Carpenter, DH	1-3	1	0	0
5N. Cruz, PH	0-1	0	0	0
5N. Cruz, DH	0-1	0	0	0
6J.Cronenworth, 1B	2-5	0	0	0
7H.Kim, 2B	2-4	2	1	3
8T.Grisham, CF	3-4	1	0	1
9B.Sullivan, C	1-3	1	0	0