Reds vs. Padres Odds & Betting Predictions - May 2, 2023

Reds at Padres

1:40 am • BSSD

Cincinnati Reds

9-12

3 - 8

San Diego Padres

7-14

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Snell			2.25	14-9
L.Weaver			3.38	1-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 9-12	+1.5-110	o8.5-115	+176
Padres 7-14	-1.5-110	u8.5-105	-210

Tuesday 1:40 a.m.

May 02, 2023

PETCO ParkSan Diego

Under 8.5-105

L.Weaver o15.5 Outs+113

Cleared this in both his starts - 93 and 99 pitches - despite not pitching particularly well. Padres are slightly below league average in both wRC+ and OPS vs RHP. Plus, could have the post-Mexico affect working for us. Reds pen has pitched 4 innings in each of the last three days - long leash for Weaver expected.

L.Weaver o4.5 Ks-135

1.35u

Weaver has been able to generate a 15% swinging strike rate so the strikeouts should continue. He’s been able to get elite whiff rates on his two main pitches: fastball (37%) and changeup (59%). His curveball has been awful and the sooner he replaces that with his cutter as his 3rd pitch, the better. The Padres are a tough team to K, but after 2 games at 7400’ above sea level, Weaver’s stuff might be a bit tougher to hit as they adjust back. HP ump Paul Emmel has a pretty big strike zone as well. Projecting this closer to -170

CIN +190

0.5u

Under 8.5-106

1.06u

CIN +190

0.5u

Need +190 or better, same price at Wynn

CIN +1.5-105

0.53u

B.Snell o6.5 Ks-112

0.89u

CIN +185

0.54u

Under 5.5 (F5)-133

1.2u

-142 on FD

The Reds are just 3-10 (.231) on the road this season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .487.

Xander Bogaerts has an OPS of .846 since last season -- 15th best in MLB-- 89th Percentile. Luke Weaver has allowed an OPS of .875 (225 PAs) since last season -- second worst among qualified RPs-- 0 Percentile.

Manny Machado has an OPS of .858 since last season -- 13th best in MLB-- 90th Percentile. Luke Weaver has allowed an OPS of .875 (225 PAs) since last season -- second worst among qualified RPs-- 0 Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Padres are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Padres are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Padres are 47-33 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	82-78	35-45	47-33	43-57	37-19
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Padres	81-74-5	44-34-2	37-40-3	51-44-5	28-28
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Padres	93-69	45-35	47-33	58-42	31-25
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 30th	SF	W 6-4	-1.5 W	U 19.5	SD -152
Apr 29th	SF	W 16-11	-1.5 W	O 15.5	SD -199
Apr 27th	@CHC	L 2-5	-1.5 L	U 8.5	CHC -174
Apr 26th	@CHC	W 5-3	-1.5 W	U 8	SD -110
Apr 25th	@CHC	L 0-6	-1.5 L	U 7	CHC -106

Joe Musgrove
P
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Julian Aguiar
P
Aguiar is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Rhett Lowder
P
Lowder is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Weaver, P	79	4.1	3	4
LA.Young, P	19	0.2	1	2
RC.Legumina, P	19	2	3	0
LR. Sanmartin, P	36	1	2	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.India, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
2S.Steer, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
3S.Fairchild, LF	1-3	0	0	2
3J.Fraley, PH	0-1	0	0	0
3J.Fraley, LF	0-1	0	0	0
4T.Stephenson, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5H. Ramos, RF	0-4	0	0	0
6K.Newman, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
6K.Newman, SS	1-4	0	0	0
7N.Senzel, CF	3-4	1	1	1
7N.Senzel, 3B	3-4	1	1	1
8J. Barrero, SS	0-3	0	0	0
8C.Casali, C	0-1	0	0	0
9L.Maile, C	2-2	1	0	0
9T.Friedl, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Friedl, CF	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Snell, P	101	6	7	3
RS.Wilson, P	12	1	2	0
RD. Tapia, P	26	2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1F.Tatis, RF	3-5	1	0	0
2M.Machado, 3B	1-4	1	0	2
3J.Soto, LF	2-4	0	0	2
4X.Bogaerts, SS	1-5	1	0	0
5M.Carpenter, DH	1-3	1	0	0
5N. Cruz, PH	0-1	0	0	0
5N. Cruz, DH	0-1	0	0	0
6J.Cronenworth, 1B	2-5	0	0	0
7H.Kim, 2B	2-4	2	1	3
8T.Grisham, CF	3-4	1	0	1
9B.Sullivan, C	1-3	1	0	0