Tigers vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - May 7, 2024

Tigers at Guardians

10:10 pm • BSGL

Detroit Tigers

4-3

11 - 7

Cleveland Guardians

4-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
L.Allen			5.73	8-5
K.Maeda			6.09	3-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Tigers 4-3	+1.5-175	o8.5-110	+120
Guardians 4-6	-1.5+145	u8.5-110	-141

Tuesday 10:10 p.m.

May 07, 2024

Progressive FieldCleveland

DET +114

L.Allen u16.5 Outs-120

Under in 4/7. Really struggling the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup (.998 and 1.198 OPS allowed, respectively). Only hits the zone 40.5% of the time (112th/153 pitchers with at least 20 IP), and the Tigers have the ninth lowest chase rate. Overall, DET sees 3.92 pitches per PA (9th overall). Plus, we have great hitting weather today.

Over 8.5-115

0.65u

CLE -125

1.88u

A.Ibanez o1.5 Total Bases+110

1.1u

Ballpark pal gives a strong advantage to Ibanez in this matchup and +ev bet with devig odds of -107 giving value to this number

Over 8.5-105

0.5u

Bet to -115

Featured Insight
Tigers have a strikeout rate of 32% vs right-handed batters over the last week -- highest in MLB. Guardians right-handed hitters have struck out 33% against LHP over the last week -- fifth highest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Guardians have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 5% of innings played since the 2022 season -- tied for fourth lowest in MLB. The Tigers have scored three or more runs in an inning just 138 times (4%) since the 2022 season -- tied for second lowest in MLB.

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The Guardians are 46-50 (.479) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .410.

The Tigers are 40-14 (.741) when they've scored in the first inning since the 2023 season -- tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .615.

The Guardians are 12-70 (.146) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .102.

The Tigers are 11-7 (.611) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Wenceel Perez has an OPS of .943 this season -- 13th best among hitters with at least 48 total PA's-- 96th Percentile. Logan Allen has allowed an OPS of .838 (160 PAs) this season -- eighth worst among qualified SPs-- eighth Percentile.

Logan Allen has allowed an OPS of .998 (63 PA's) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season -- 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .660 -- fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (32/130) against Kenta Maeda on sliders since last season -- 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 41% -- second Percentile.

Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .649 (37 Total Bases / 57 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season -- highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .380 -- second Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Guardians are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Guardians are 41-40 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Guardians' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Guardians' 80 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	83-78	42-38	41-40	48-50	34-27
Tigers	87-75	39-42	48-33	27-39	60-36

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Guardians	67-83-11	38-38-4	29-45-7	45-46-7	21-36-4
Tigers	79-78-5	36-43-2	43-35-3	31-32-3	48-46-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Guardians	92-69	50-30	42-39	63-35	28-33
Tigers	86-76	43-38	43-38	38-28	48-48

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 6th	DET	W 2-1	+1.5 W	U 7	CLE -118
May 5th	LAA	W 4-1	-1.5 W	U 8	CLE -155
May 4th	LAA	W 7-1	-1.5 W	U 8	CLE -130
May 3rd	LAA	L 0-6	-1.5 L	U 7.5	LAA -205
May 3rd	@HOU	L 2-8	+1.5 L	O 9	HOU +120

Shane Bieber
P
Bieber is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Javier Baez
IF
Baez is out with back
Out
Sawyer Gipson-Long
P
Gipson-Long is out with groin
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RK.Maeda, P	59	2	1	7
LT.Holton, P	31	3	3	0
RA.Faedo, P	18	2	1	0
LA.Chafin, P	11	1	0	0
RA.Lange, P	20	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Ibanez, 2B	4-4	4	2	4
2W.Perez, CF	2-5	1	0	0
3M.Vierling, 3B	2-5	0	0	2
4R.Greene, LF	1-5	1	0	0
5J.Rogers, DH	2-5	2	0	0
6S.Torkelson, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
7R.Vilade, RF	2-4	0	0	3
8J.Baez, SS	1-5	1	0	1
9C.Kelly, C	0-3	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LL.Allen, P	67	2.1	2	7
RP.Avila, P	53	3	4	1
RC.Smith, P	20	1	0	1
LT.Herrin, P	18	1.2	2	1
RS.Barlow, P	9	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1E.Florial, LF	1-5	1	0	1
1E.Florial, RF	1-5	1	0	1
2A.Gimenez, 2B	0-3	1	0	0
3J.Ramirez, 3B	3-4	1	0	2
4J.Naylor, 1B	1-3	2	1	2
5W.Brennan, RF	1-3	0	0	2
5D.Fry, PH	0-1	0	0	0
5D.Fry, LF	0-1	0	0	0
6T.Freeman, CF	0-4	0	0	0
7B.Naylor, C	1-4	1	0	0
8K.Manzardo, DH	0-4	0	0	0
9B.Rocchio, SS	1-2	1	0	0