Mavericks vs. Bucks Odds & Betting Predictions - March 6, 2025

Runs the bench squad with a 27.94% assist rate and building rapport with Jericho Sims, a guy who can be busy with no active center for Dallas. 3 assists on 6 potentials in 12 minutes vs. Dallas on March 1st. Now plays an ever weaker version of the team that gave up a 127 defensive rating vs. the Kings (would rank dead-last season). Think we see some more playing time upside for KPJ with Lillard coming in playing though an eye injury, and a 11.5 spread with blowout looming where the bench crew can get extra run. #PlayerProps

Didn’t want to lay the points fill game just in case a back door cover but love the first half alt spread giving everything that is going on with the Mavs. Bucks have also been playing great ball lately

Run back Dwight Powell night? Someone’s gotta play for Dallas. Hit this at 18-1 two years ago, let’s try again. Build with 10 pts 10 reb at DK.

Milwaukee is a no-brainer tonight. Bucks rolling-7 wins in last 8, scoring 119.4 PPG in last 5. Dallas collapsing-lost 4 of last 5, offense plummeted to just 103.8 PPG in same span. Injury nightmare for Mavs-Irving (ACL), Davis, and multiple key players out. Bucks healthy, confident at home. Offensively, Milwaukee dominates inside-48.0% FG (top-tier), 38.2% from three. Giannis unstoppable lately, averaging 30.8 PPG, 12.1 RPG. Bucks' bench strength huge-Porter Jr. major spark lately, key to sustained scoring runs. Mavs, depleted defensively, allowing 117.6 PPG on road, 47% FG allowed. Recent matchup tells the story-Bucks beat Mavs 132-117 in Dallas just days ago. Milwaukee crushed on the boards (52-33), controlled pace, and shot over 50% FG. Without Irving, Dallas has limited scoring options-Thompson just 13.8 PPG. Bucks at home: 20-9 record, 117.7 PPG. Expect blowout.

Sandy

Mavs are down nearly all their primary scorers (Kyrie, AD, Washington, and Luka gone) so the natural assumption is Klay will pick up the scoring. But RotoGrinders CourtIQ is showing Thompson sees a pretty big decline in his scoring rates without them. Projections have Klay at 30 minutes and 16.32 points. Think that’s a fair projection but the CourtIQ data suggests there room downward on that projection based on data in similar situations (his Per-36 has been closer to 14 points without Luka/Kyrie/AD/PJ/Gafford/Lively).

The Mavericks need to adjust to life without both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving and that life may just be retooling for next season. Aka let’s expect a few blowouts. Klay is one of the best catch and shoot players in the NBA still, but that necessitates someone that can actually facilitate for others. With Dallas down to just Spencer Dinwiddie as a “true” facilitator, this is less than ideal for Klay. Without Kyrie, Klay has exceeded this line in just 2/9 games this season and averages 13.9 ppg. In losses of 10+ he’s hit in just 4/14 averaging 13.6. I think this is a rough spot for Klay, especially considering Milwaukee is simply an average matchup for opponent 3s.