JMU vs. Texas St Odds & Betting Predictions - October 29, 2025

🚨Free analysis & VIP Picks can be found on our Discord. Link: https://discord.gg/JrzjtqdVfA 🎙️Fade the Noise PODCAST - Subscribe!✅ https://www.youtube.com/@FadetheNoise Link to VIP FULL CARD (Copy &Paste): https://linktr.ee/moneylinehacks%F0%9F%94%A560% OFF with promo code: Hacks60

🚨Free analysis & VIP Picks can be found on our Discord. Link: https://discord.gg/JrzjtqdVfA 📈FREE TRIAL!!➡️ https://fas.st/t/EbWTQK7M (COPY & PASTE LINK) 🎙️Fade the Noise PODCAST - Subscribe!✅ https://www.youtube.com/@FadetheNoise 🔥50% OFF VIP!! ⬇️⬇️ (COPY & PASTE LINK): https://dubclub.win/r/p/pri-r744p/?checkout=1&coupon=ValueHacks50

55 or better here. 2U play on the Card for us as well on this fine Tuesday

You have the UVA’s of college football, a team that somehow wins every close game in overtime. Then you have Texas State, possibly the most unlucky team in the country. They rank as the 15th unluckiest team in our luck metrics, though they probably deserve to be higher. The Bobcats come into this matchup after two straight heartbreaking overtime losses, plus a one point loss the week before. That’s three weeks of gut punches in a row. You have to question their motivation after that kind of heartbreak. However, this spot sets up nicely for a bounce back. Texas State is coming off a bye week, giving them time to reset and refocus. Those brutal losses are now two weeks in the rearview, and this is easily the biggest game of their season, under the lights on national TV. I expect them to get up for this game despite their disappointing last few weeks. JMU comes in 6-1 with hopes of being the Group of 5 team to crash the College Football Playoff conversation. They’ve been very good, but they’ll have their hands full tonight. Despite playing Louisville earlier in the year, JMU owns just the 115th ranked strength of schedule. The in-conference competition they’ve faced isn’t anywhere near Texas State’s level, regardless of what their record suggests. Texas State boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the country. They run a modified Air Raid scheme that produces chunk plays at the 12th-highest rate nationally. The Bobcats rank 23rd in net points per drive and have been elite in late down conversions. Offensively, they sit 28th in EPA per pass and 33rd in EPA per rush. JMU’s defense has been solid, but their pass rush leaves a lot to be desired. They also haven’t seen an offensive scheme like Texas State yet. Freshman QB Brad Jackson has been terrific, and is surrounded by legitimate skill players. Don’t sleep on the caliber of players Texas schools produce. On the other side, JMU’s offense has been heavily aided by favorable field position. On average they start with the 14th best field position per drive, but that advantage likely disappears against an offense like Texas State’s that can sustain drives and flip the field. They’ll have to work harder than usual against real competition. While Texas State’s defense is far from elite, I haven’t been particularly impressed by JMU’s offense either. They rank 89th in passing offense and 83rd overall, with a 59.8 passing grade (110th nationally). This is not what you expect from a 6-1 team. They should find some success on the ground, but their wide receiver group is thin, and they’ve become predictable. They run the ball at the 9th highest rate in the country which makes them easier to gameplan for, especially for a team coming off a bye. I think we see Texas State’s best effort tonight in a spoiler role. The Bobcats are much better than their record indicates. Our model actually projects the Bobcats to win outright, 26.46 to 25.48, with a fair spread of -0.98. I’ll gladly take the generous +7 they’re giving us.

Major wind expected in San Marcos. Gusts to 39MPH with 22MPH sustained. JMU has played several low scoring grinders on the road this season and should lean on the defense and ground attack here. Texas state RUN heavy this season and the passing threat should be mitigated by the wind. JMU best tackling team in the SBC, both run defenses are competent.

Apologies for shit week but time to get back on horse for hopefully a long run. Here’s 2 early ones for Tuesday. Will discuss on pod today. Rest during the week!