Ohio vs. W. Michigan Odds & Betting Predictions - November 12, 2025

We bet against Ohio last week and lost with Miami Ohio +2.5, a pick that had no business losing. Ohio was sacked on 3rd and 15 but was blessed with a face mask penalty that gave them new life and ultimately led to a walk off touchdown with a minute left. They would have lost that game if it weren’t for that penalty on 3rd and 15. I will gladly fade Ohio once again after that win, they simply don’t impress me. Meanwhile, I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Western Michigan, especially defensively. The Broncos have a very solid and disciplined defense. Discipline is the main emphasis in that sentence. The MAC Conference is infamous for undisciplined play. We saw it on full display last week with Miami Ohio and Kent State. Western Michigan is one of the most disciplined teams in the country, ranking 22nd in penalties per game. They’ve averaged 4.8 penalties per game and just 3.7 over their last three games. On the contrary, Ohio ranks 106th with 7.3 penalties per game and 9 per game over their last three, one of the worst marks in football. The Western Michigan defense is 15th nationally in EPA per pass allowed and 35th in EPA per rush allowed. They rank 77th overall, which is solid for a MAC defense. They are the second best unit in the conference, allowing just 19 points per game. Ohio’s defense is much worse, ranking 120th overall. They really struggle against the pass, which will be key when Western Michigan decides to air it out. Ohio’s offense isn’t explosive and has to efficiently drive the field. This is a tough task against a Western Michigan defense that makes you fight for every yard and ranks top 30 in explosiveness allowed. The Broncos pass rush will be the difference tonight. Here’s another underrated aspect of this handicap: Dallas Cowboys defensive end Marshawn Kneeland, who tragically passed away last week, was a Western Michigan alumnus. There will undoubtedly be a moment of silence and a video tribute. I don’t care what anyone says, these Western Michigan players are going to fight like hell to get him a win. That may sound silly, but motivation is one of the biggest aspects of sports. It’s also Senior Night for the Broncos. And if that wasn’t enough motivation, Western Michigan is still firmly in the MAC Championship race. They sit at 4-1 in conference play, tied with Ohio, Buffalo, and Miami OH. Tonight is essentially an elimination game for both teams with the winner will likely advance to the MAC Title Game. The Broncos will be fully motivated in front of a good home crowd. Ohio has also played all but one of their MAC games at home. Their lone road game ended in an embarrassing loss to Ball State. This is not the same team away from home. Meanwhile, Western Michigan has been much better at home. They are just 1-3 on the road, but 4-1 at home. I’ll take Western Michigan to beat Ohio and move one step closer to the MAC Championship Game.