Bills vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - December 14, 2025

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Dawson Knox under 1.5 receptions (+120 at 365, +118 at FD) In two years with Dalton Kincaid as first-look TE, Knox has averaged just 1.45 receptions in games Kincaid played. And the matchup isn't ideal here either despite the fact that Knox had two grabs against the Patriots in their first meeting this year in which Kincaid also played. In that first meeting, the Patriots played just 5% Cover 2, but since Week 7 they have been the team that plays the second-most Cover 2 in the league at 28.4%. Bills QB Josh Allen's worst efficiency has been against Cover 2, so the Patriots would be wise to deploy it at a high rate as they have done in the second half of the year. That's also bad for Knox, as he's had just 3 targets against Cover 2 since the start of 2024, which encompasses 61 total routes. I'm projecting Knox right at 1.5 receptions, but that means he's favored to stay under as that's an average projection and not a median. Sometimes he'll have 3 or even 4 grabs, but that's more than offset by the number of times he catches 0 or 1 balls. At 55.8% to stay under, that's a 10% edge at +118 odds.

The Bills outgained the Pats the first time these 2 met, they were better on 3rd downs, they just lost the turnover battle and that cost them. New England has fattened up off the back of some BAD quarterbacks.

This game feels huge, but the reality is that the Patriots can win the AFC East just by beating the Jets and Dolphins in the final two weeks of the season, regardless of this one. This is more about the race for the one-seed and, probably, the MVP. Neither defense has been great, and both offenses are great but maybe not elite. New England's relative defensive strength is against the run, and that's a good match for Buffalo's power rushing attack. The Bills can't stop the run at all but the Patriots can't run anyway, and Buffalo's pass defense is better and matches up well. New England's run defense has trended down with Milton Williams out the last three games, from 4th in EPA per play on the season to 23rd and from 8th to 31st in Success Rate. That's a big problem against Buffalo if it continues, though the Patriots come in rested after the bye and some time to get the defense back in order. That bye week triggers a great setup for us to play both halves of this game separately. Home underdogs coming off a bye week are 59-39-13 ATS (60%) in just the first half. That's a great matchup for the Patriots, who have been the league's best first-half team at 10-3 ATS on the season, while the Bills are a league worst 3-10 ATS. New England's offense has been far better in the first half all season, and Josh McDaniels should be ready with a plan to attack Buffalo. On the other hand, road favorites of under six points facing an opponent coming out of the bye are 33-19-2 ATS (63%) in the second half. Josh Allen has been a second-half god in his career at a remarkable 80-40-3 ATS (67%), including 9-4 ATS this season (69%). The best part about playing just the halves is that we don't even have to pick a winner for the game! That's great because I make this game nearly a coin flip. I'm playing Patriots 1H -0.5 at +110 (DraftKings). I prefer that to the available -104 ML or +0.5 -120. Those angles offer us a push or even win if it's tied at the half, but it's not worth the price of admission for 30 cents difference. Similarly, I'll play Bils 2H -1.5 at +120 (FanDuel) rather than the -110 ML. Both angles work well together too — if the Patriots do lead at the half, it's tough to imagine the Bills not pushing back in the second half. So play both together too, with a Patriots 1H & Bills 2H parlay at +221 (FanDuel). We don't even need to know who wins with that one! But if you do want to play Patriots HT / Bills FT, that would be my lean too at +490 (FanDuel). Josh Allen is 23-6-1 ATS (79%) against elite defenses allowing 20 PPG or less. I'll play both halves separately and sprinkle both parlays as an escalator.

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Outside divisional game (***) Overall: 263-170-10,61% (ROI:18%) Season:8-7-0,53% (ROI:2%)

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