Commanders vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - November 5, 2023

Commanders at Patriots

6:00 pm • FOX

Washington Commanders

7-2

20 - 17

New England Patriots

2-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Commanders 7-2	+2.5	+3-112	o40.5-112	+130
Patriots 2-7	u40.5	-3-107	u40.5-107	-154

Sunday 6:00 p.m.

November 05, 2023

Gillette StadiumFoxborough

WAS +3-115

WAS +3-120

1.04u

WAS +130

1.63u

J.Dotson Anytime TD Scorer+300

@GDAWG5000

NE -3-109

WAS +3-120

0.83u

This line is about to move to 2.5

WAS +3-110

0.5u

WAS +3-120

1.25u

D.Douglas o45.5 Rec Yds-110

NE -2.5-114

FanDuel

NE -2.5-117

1.17u

Projection: -4. For more, check out Fantasy Life.

NE -2.5-119

1.79u

NE -2.5-114

0.5u

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-odds-picks-week-9-betting-preview-for-every-game-every-team

J.Davis o7.5 Tackles + Ast-110

J.Dotson Anytime TD Scorer+300

Bet at Bet365. Would still play to +270. Pats are No1 in DVOA to WR1 and No26 in DVOA to WR2. No Curtis Samuel. Love this spot for Dotson.

R.Stevenson o71.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115

WAS +2.5+100

WAS +3.5-110

Raybon 1

L.Thomas u35.5 Rec Yds-115

L.Thomas o32.5 Rec Yds-113

1.13u

Over in 5/7, and gets the matchup that has continued to produce outlier results vs TEs (6/8 opposing TEs have cleared their line vs NE). Pats rush defense is good (7th in DVOA, per FTN), and they will look to take away McLaurin (1st in DVOA vs WR1). WSH also 1st in pass play percentage this season. Play to o35.5.

Under 40.5-115

0.87u

Available at FanDuel.This is a low total. But I do think it should be even a bit lower. The wind speeds are currently at 9 miles per hour, which results in a small downgrade. But also, the Patriots’ offense doesn’t generate explosive plays and just lost Kendrick Bourne for the season. The Commanders throw a ton, which stops the clock and can lead to overs. We saw the impact of that last week. But the model knows that and still shows value in the under. This number for me is closer to 36 than 40.5, so I’m fine taking the under.

WAS +3.5-115

0.87u

Fire sale or not, these teams are evenly matched at worst. Road dogs +6.5 or less are 167-94-8 (64%) ATS with a +3.1 ATS margin when facing a home fav averaging fewer than 18.0 PPG since 2006 (NE 14.8 PPG).

WAS +3-105

Featured Insight
The Commanders have averaged 2.2 passing TDs per game since Week 5 -- tied for second-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 2.0 passing touchdowns per game since Week 5 -- tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Commanders have gone three and out on 25% of their drives this season -- tied for fifth-worst in NFL. Patriots have forced three and outs on 24% of opponent drives this season -- tied for sixth-best in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Patriots are 0-5 in their last 5 games.
Patriots are 1-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Patriots are 2-3 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Patriots' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Patriots' 4 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Patriots	3-6-1	1-2-1	2-3	0-1	3-5-1
Commanders	8-1-1	5-0	3-1-1	5-0	3-1-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Patriots	5-5	3-1	1-4	0-1	5-4
Commanders	6-4	1-4	5-0	2-3	4-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Patriots	2-7	N/A	N/A	0-1	2-7
Commanders	7-2	N/A	N/A	5-0	3-2

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 29th	@MIA	L 17-31	+8.5 L	O 46.5	MIA +350
Oct 22nd	BUF	W 29-25	+7.5 W	O 41.5	NE +310
Oct 15th	@LV	L 17-21	+3 L	U 41.5	LV +124
Oct 8th	NO	L 0-34	-2 L	U 38.5	NO -130
Oct 1st	@DAL	L 3-38	+6 L	U 43	DAL +220

Cornelius Lucas
T
Lucas is out with ankle
Out
Brian Robinson
RB
Brian Robinson inactive Week 9.
Out

Kyle Dugger
S
Dugger is out with ankle
Out

Christian Elliss
LB
Elliss is questionable with abdomen
Questionable
Alex Austin
CB
Austin is questionable with ankle
Questionable
Jaquelin Roy
DT
Roy is questionable with neck
Questionable

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Commanders

Total

Patriots

432

Total Yards

327

Total Plays

5.6

Yards Per Play

5.2

Commanders

Passing

Patriots

325

YDS

220

29/45

Comps/Atts

24/44

6.417

YPA

1/1

TDs/INTs

1/1

3/17

Sacks/Yards

0/0

Commanders

Rushing

Patriots

124

Rush Yards

107

Attempts

4.276

YPC

5.632

TDs

Commanders

Turnovers

Patriots

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Commanders

Efficiency

Patriots

1/4 25%

Redzone

1/1 100%

9/17 0%

3rd Down

3/12 0%

0/0 0%

4th Down

1/2 0%

Commanders

First Downs

Patriots

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Commanders

Misc

Patriots

4/30

Penalties/Yards

4/30

37:10

Possession

22:50

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MatchupOverUnder
Commanders 7-2	o19.5-108	u19.5-109
Patriots 2-7	o21.5-105	u21.5-112

Commanders vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - November 5, 2023

Commanders at Patriots

Washington Commanders

New England Patriots

Commanders at Patriots Odds

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Commanders vs. Patriots Previews & Analysis

The 2 Sharpest Spread Predictions for NFL Week 9

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Raybon's 4 Best Bets for the 1 p.m. ET Slate

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Commanders

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