Jaguars vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Predictions - December 21, 2025

📚Onyx 🔑 Jaguars ML +145 (Onyx) 1u Two of the hottest teams rn, I simply think the jags are better

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Too much offense lately

I’m not the biggest NFL totals bettor, so take this with a grain of salt BUT…some things I really like here. For one, I think the overall quality of these defenses is keeping the number at bay, but these teams are putting up some points, and they’re run by offense first head coaches in Sean Payton and Liam Coen. The Jags are the only team in the NFL to score 25 or more in 7 straight games and while the Broncos get more credit for their D, they rank 11th in scoring offense, and that ranking jumps to 8th when they play on their home field. Weather looks pretty perfect as well for a high scoring game, 60 degrees zero precipitation and minimal winds. I think this game flies over the total.

We bet Broncos -2.5 on last week's Lookahead and it already hit the key number by Sunday night after Denver beat Green Bay convincingly. It hasn't gone far, though, because the Jaguars had a blowout win themselves last week and are one of the hottest teams in the league, top three by DVOA over the last six weeks. Liam Coen's once-rejuvenated rushing attack has totally disappeared, but Jacksonville ranks top five in passing attack and in both rushing and passing defense during that stretch by DVOA. This is where context matters, though. During that stretch, the Jags demolished the terrible Titans and Jets, and they eked by the struggling Cardinals in overtime. The big wins raising all the metrics were comfortable wins against the Chargers and Colts, but both those teams have been besieged by injuries and Jacksonville caught them at just the right time, getting "credit" for wins probably not as good as they look. Then again, it's not like Denver has pulled away from the crowd. Denver has 12 wins, but 11 of them have come from behind. The Broncos are 6-8 ATS in the first half but 9-5 ATS after the break, doing their best work late. The team has been especially lackluster in the first quarter, where the defense ranks below average by DVOA before being elite the rest of the game, and the offense ranks bottom five while it leaps to top 10 after that. Just look at the scores of the last six first quarters in Denver games (with their score first): 0-3, 7-7, 3-0, 6-3, 0-7, and 0-3. That's a meager 2.7 PPG, and the Broncos led only twice, both times by a field goal. By contrast, Jacksonville has played its best ball early in games. Liam Coen's scripted plays are working and Trevor Lawrence is playing great ball early. The Jags are 9-5 ATS in the first half, and they rank top five in Offensive DVOA in the first quarter. I still like Denver in the game, but I like Jacksonville early. I'll play the Jaguars first quarter moneyline at +125 (bet365). I far prefer that to Jags +0.5 at -130, no need to pay 55 cents to win a tie instead of pushing it. That also sets up a familiar script for the Broncos, so bet Denver at +170 to win from behind (DraftKings), which has cashed in all but one Broncos victory. You can also parlay Jaguars 1Q ML with a Broncos win and get a negative correlation boost at +365 (DraftKings).

Nerd bets

REVENGE GAME!!!!

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Tailing @ChrisRaybon

JAX allowing NFL-low 17.7 RB carries per game. Payton aiming to mix in McLaughlin more.

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WEEK 16 LOOKAHEAD — Broncos -2.5 vs Jaguars dk The Broncos are slowly winning me over. Denver made it to the top 10 of my power ratings, which doesn't seem like much for a potential one-seed, but it's a big leap from where the Broncos have been all season — and it's well ahead of the Jaguars now, who I'm still not seeing it with. Denver has been trending up, top five in DVOA over the last seven games, including top 10 on offense. On the one hand, this could look like a spot to wait. Jacksonville is a big Sunday favorite over the Jets, and the Broncos are home underdogs to the Packers, so perhaps this line moves the other direction. But if Denver beats Green Bay or the Jaguars struggle some with New York as I fear, then we'll never get this one below the key number. Every point matters with the Broncos, and this is already Broncos -3 at FanDuel, so I'm happy to play -2.5 at DraftKings below the key. Assuming typical Denver home field advantage, this line is basically pricing these teams as equals. I don't see it. I think they're in entirely different weight classes and would make this more like Denver -5, so give me Broncos -2.5

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