Packers vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Predictions - December 14, 2025

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Parsons is obviously one of the premier edge rushers in the league, but this isn’t a market or number he tends to clear, as he’s only had 4+ tackles in 3 of 13 games this season. It’s a bit unfair to include the full season since he was eased in to start the year and wasn’t in his current full-time role of ~90% of the snaps until Week 6. Even then, he’s only cleared this in 3 of 9 games. All 3 times came in games where he was able to rack up multiple sacks. There was even a game where he had 2 sacks and only finished with 2 tackles total (both from the sacks). Now he faces the Broncos, which is a brutal matchup for EDGE rushers, as Denver has allowed the 2nd fewest tackle opps to the position. Parsons has had a very easy schedule in terms of EDGE tackle opportunities, so this will be by far the toughest matchup he’s had all season. Bo Nix has also been one of the toughest QBs to sack. He plays behind an elite OL and has only been under pressure on 27% of dropbacks, the 3rd lowest rate. Even when pressured, he’s tough to take down with an 11% pressure-to-sack rate, the 2nd lowest in the league. Nix does drops back at a very high rate, which will give Parsons plenty of chances to get to him, but it also means fewer rush attempts faced than the Packers typically see. That lowers the odds Parsons picks up cheap run tackles and likely puts him in a spot where he’d need multiple sacks to clear this number. That’s a tougher task in this matchup. I’m projecting Parsons closer to 3.1 tackles with around a 61% chance to stay under 3.5.

Px

This is another game I make nearly a coin flip. It's clear the Packers offense and Denver defense are each team's better units, so that matches up well, and there are some questions about the other units on each side. Denver's offense is actually trending up, fringe top 10 by DVOA over the last six games, and Bo Nix's advanced metrics are looking much better than they did early this season too. That Broncos offense has struggled early in games though. It's bottom 10 by DVOA in each of the first three quarters before leaping to 7th in the fourth quarter, and the Packers offense leads the league in that fourth-quarter metric. That matches the eye test. Both coaches play conservative football for much of the game before finally taking the training wheels off late and letting the offense do what it needs to do to get over the line. The Packers lead the league in fourth quarter scoring at 9.5 PPG, and the Broncos aren't far behind at 8.3 (6th). Packers games are also a league-best 10-3 to the over (77%). Give me the fourth quarter over 11.5 (FanDuel). Some books offer other fun fourth quarter lines, since we'll be locked in late on this one anyway. I like betting the fourth quarter to be the highest scoring quarter at +225 (DraftKings). It's a fun bet and could mean some fireworks late, and in a game that leans under overall, just the over 11.5 may well hit that anyway. I also like parlaying that fourth quarter over 11.5 with a game under 42.5 as a negatively-correlated SGP at +430 (DraftKings), but don't go crazy since it's really threading the needle on a game script.

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