Cardinals-Browns Odds & Prediction
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 38 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 38 -110o / -110u | -800 |
Cardinals vs. Browns odds have moved in a big way throughout the week. Cleveland started the week as an eight-point favorite but is now laying 13 at bet365.
The movement comes after news on Saturday that Deshaun Watson is expected to start at quarterback for Cleveland opposite Cardinals rookie Clayton Tune. Watson's shoulder injury is apparently healed to the point that he wants to give it a go in Week 9.
This game has one of the lowest totals on the board at 38, which isn't surprising since Arizona is turning to a rookie quarterback against one of the NFL's best defenses. Cleveland should find success against an awful Cardinals defense, but expect the Browns to operate cautiously with Watson.
Let's preview the game and make our Cardinals vs. Browns prediction, which is on that low total.
Cardinals vs. Browns
Matchup Analysis
The NFL's quarterback injury and benching carousel has made its way to northeast Ohio on Sunday as Arizona visits Cleveland.
The Cardinals benched starter Joshua Dobbs and then traded him to Minnesota. Kyler Murray is not yet ready to return from his ACL injury, which means that rookie Clayton Tune will make his first NFL start against the best defense in the league.
The Browns' quarterback situation isn't really clear either, but Deshaun Watson will start for the Browns in place of backup P.J. Walker. Walker started in a win over the 49ers, and then again last week in a loss to Seattle. Between those games, Watson started in Indianapolis but was quickly removed from the game after multiple interceptions.
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Cleveland is likely to play from ahead for large parts of this game, so it's important to look at its tendencies when playing from out front. The Browns are 18th in pace when leading and 31st in pace when leading by more than a touchdown. This is a huge departure from their first half and early game tendencies, where Kevin Stefanski's offense plays considerably faster. The Browns are third in situation neutral pace and seventh in first-half pace.
The Browns also have the eighth-lowest early down pass frequency in neutral game states this season, and you could argue it will only be lower on Sunday because of Watson's health.
The Browns tried to come out pass heavy against Indianapolis two weeks ago, and Watson's mistakes handed points to Indianapolis. The Browns just need to avoid turnovers and trust their defense to win, so I'd expect a healthy dose of Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt.
After all, you can run on this Cardinals defense, which ranks bottom five in success rate allowed.
Bet Arizona vs. Cleveland at FanDuel
Even after a puzzling poor performance against the Colts, the Browns have the best defense by most metrics.
They have a 35% success rate allowed, they are first in EPA per play allowed and have the most dominant pass rusher in the NFL in Myles Garrett.
Jim Schwartz has certainly taken advantage of some bad quarterback play, and it's true that the defensive numbers are a bit inflated due to the poor quality of opposing QBs.
But Tune is a fifth-round pick who doesn't project anywhere near the level of an NFL starter. His numbers held up decently under pressure when you look at his PFF grades, but that's playing in the American Athletic Conference.
Tune averaged 6.3 yards per attempt last season under pressure with nine big-time throws and seven turnover-worthy plays. The Cardinals probably could have brought back Murray for this game if they really wanted to, but given their position in the standings and the quality of the Cleveland defense, it makes sense to keep him sidelined for one more week.
Head coach Jonathan Gannon's comments about benching Dobbs also made it seem like the decision came as a result of the impending trade deadline move more than anything else. If the Cardinals had any reason to believe in Tune's upside, we probably would have seen him in an NFL game prior to Week 9.
Cardinals vs. Browns
Betting Picks & Predictions
The Cards finished last week with 24 points, but almost all of those came deep in garbage time against a prevent Ravens defense. Arizona had 171 yards on the final three drives of the fourth quarter, and finished the game with 310 in total. It took all of those extra yards just to get to 4.4 yards per play, at home, against a similar caliber defense to Cleveland.
Now on the road, with a rookie quarterback, the Cardinals are drawing close to dead offensively. Cleveland will blitz and play man behind it, challenging Tune to beat them.
Short of a ton of garbage time points, offense will be hard to come by in this game. I'd bet the under at anything more than the key number of 37.
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