Russell Wilson Over 19.5 Rushing Yards | Play to 21.5
The Broncos come out of their bye week on a mini two-game winning streak. But picking up a third win in a row won’t come easy, as they travel to Orchard Park to take on the Bills on Monday Night Football.
My favorite prop of the game involves quarterback Russell Wilson, just not in the passing game. The Broncos' signal-caller has cleared this rushing yards line in five of his eight games this season, including each of the last three.
He won’t have his number called in the running game outside of QB sneaks, but I love the upside of his scrambling ability tonight. Let's dive into my top player prop bet for Broncos vs. Bills on Monday Night Football.
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Wilson is averaging 8.2 yards per scramble this season, per Pro Football Focus. His scramble rate when he’s pressured is 12%, compared to just 5% when he’s kept clean.
The Bills defensive front has been excellent at bringing the heat: Per Pro Football Reference, their 27% pressure rate is the fourth-highest mark in the NFL. With their defensive line fully intact tonight, I expect the Bills to be chasing Wilson from the pocket most of the night.
However, the Bills will be without star middle linebacker Matt Milano, and their other off-ball linebacker, Terrel Bernard, is questionable to play tonight. With some questions at that second level, Wilson should be able to exploit the Bills with his legs.
In a game where I do expect the Broncos to be in a trailing game-script throughout, Wilson should be in store for around 35 drop-backs. I have the second-year Bronco at 3.5 scrambles tonight, which should translate to around 27 yards. I’d play this line up to over 21.5 rush yards.
