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Sean Koerner's Recommended PrizePicks Plays
Tyson Bagent (Bears) Less Than 76.5 Passing Yards
Bagent draws the start for the Bears tonight and I’m expecting him to play 1-1.5 quarters. He seems like a lock to be the second-string quarterback, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up playing closer to just one quarter.
I think he'll be fairly efficient, but also believe he'll lean on his scrambling ability to help move the chains. We might also see Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson split work in the first quarter.
Last preseason, Bagent had the fourth-lowest aDot among 70 qualified quarterbacks. He’s likely going to chip away at the Texans' defense with short passes to set up the run game. That will potentially lead a couple of scrambles.
I’m projecting his median closer to 68.5 passing yards.
Jawhar Jordan (Texans) More Than 30.5 Rushing Yards
The Texans' running back situation is a bit murky tonight, but I expect them to give Jordan, a sixth-round pick out of Louisville, a good look tonight.
Joe Mixon isn’t expected to play. I expect Dameon Pierce to get most of the work in the first quarter. Dare Ogunbowale is a special teams ace who doesn’t need to see many touches in preseason and Cam Akers is coming back from his second Achilles tear. J.J. Taylor and British Brooks might handle mop up duty in the second half.
I expect Jordan to see the bulk of his playing time in the second and third quarters, which — if you read my Hall of Fame Game betting preview — is when I think the Texans will have an edge. The Bears' offense will likely be stalling with Brett Rypien and conceding more play volume to the Texans during those two quarters.
I think that gives Jordan a sneaky boost in expected volume and project him closer to 34.5 rushing yards.
Cade Stover (Texans) More Than 17.5 Receiving Yards
The Texans' tight end depth chart might be very thin tonight as Cade Stover and Teagan Quitoriano could potentially handle most of the snaps.
It would make a ton of sense for Stover, a fourth-round pick out of Ohio St., to see a ton of work tonight.
He has great hands as he didn’t drop a single pass last year and ranked eighth among tight end in yards per route run. Usually, this is a pretty high projection for a tight end because he'd likely need at least two receptions to get to 18 yards. However, based on the thin depth, talent and this being a perfect spot to unleash him, I like Stover to collect more than 17.5 receiving yards.
Underdog Plays
Jawhar Jordan More Than 38.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
The Texans' running back situation is a bit murky tonight, but I expect them to give Jordan, a sixth-round pick out of Louisville, a good look tonight.
Joe Mixon isn’t expected to play. I expect Dameon Pierce to get most of the work in the first quarter. Dare Ogunbowale is a special teams ace who doesn’t need to see many touches in preseason and Cam Akers is coming back from his second Achilles tear. J.J. Taylor and British Brooks might handle mop up duty in the second half.
I expect Jordan to see the bulk of his playing time in the second and third quarters, which — if you read my Hall of Fame Game betting preview — is when I think the Texans will have an edge. The Bears' offense will likely be stalling with Brett Rypien and conceding more play volume to the Texans during those two quarters.
I think that gives Jordan a sneaky boost in expected volume and project him closer to 42.5 rushing and receiving yards.
Tyson Bagent (Bears) Less Than 75.5 Passing Yards
Bagent draws the start for the Bears tonight and I’m expecting him to play 1-1.5 quarters. He seems like a lock to be the second-string quarterback, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up playing closer to just one quarter.
I think he'll be fairly efficient, but also believe he'll lean on his scrambling ability to help move the chains. We might also see Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson split work in the first quarter.
Last preseason, Bagent had the fourth-lowest aDot among 70 qualified quarterbacks. He’s likely going to chip away at the Texans' defense with short passes to set up the run game. That will potentially lead a couple of scrambles.
I’m projecting his median closer to 68.5 passing yards.
Austin Reed More Than 61.5 Passing Yards
Reed will likely close out the game for the Bears.
Since Bagent is pretty much a lock to become the number two, he’s more likely to play one quarter than two full quarters. Rypien has been around long enough that I think the Bears know what they have in him. So, it'd make sense to potentially give Reed 1.5+ quarters of action tonight.
Reed is an UDFA out of Western Kentucky who is going to be looking to throw most of the time. While he does have some scrambling ability, he’s mostly a pocket passer.
He also has pretty good composure in the pocket and doesn’t become too flustered under pressure. He had the third-lowest pressure-to-sack rate in the NCAA last season. That means that most of the time he drops back to pass, we should get a pass attempt, which raises his floor.
I’m projecting his median closer to 68.5 passing yards.
