Lions vs Cowboys Player Prop: Jalen Tolbert
WR Jalen Tolbert
Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
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Ever since the Cowboys' Week 7 bye week, Tolbert has maintained a steady role where he splits No. 3 WR snaps with Michael Gallup. He’s averaged a 44% routes run rate over the last nine games and I expect similar playing time tonight.
Tolbert has averaged 20 yards a game over the last nine games but has only cleared 18.5 in three of those nine games (33%). You might be wondering how that’s possible, and it’s because his median has only 12 yards over this nine-game stretch.
When Tolbert clears this number, it’s usually by a lot. Most of the time, though, he’s going to stay under. We can’t avoid making bets simply because if it loses then it’ll lose by a lot. We're investing in his expected median being much lower than this.
The Lions' pass defense has struggled of late, but that will likely mean Dak Prescott just targets CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson and even Brandin Cooks or Tony Pollard at a higher rate than an ancillary receiver like Tolbert. The Cowboys' run defense has been shaky lately, which is something the Lions may exploit and allow them to keep the Dallas offense off the field. We may see the Cowboys run fewer plays than usual tonight.
I’m projecting his median closer to 13.5 yards with around a 63% chance of staying under 18.5.
