Vikings vs Falcons Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
Vikings vs. Falcons odds have Atlanta laying four points at bet365, as Jaren Hall makes his first NFL start in place of the injured Kirk Cousins.
Minnesota isn't the only team that will be starting a different quarterback than it did last week. Atlanta has benched Desmond Ridder in place of Taylor Heinicke. Atlanta will also be without wide receiver Drake London due to injury. With that, I don't expect either team to come out with an aggressive game plan, which means points will be at a premium.
Let's preview the game and make our Vikings vs. Falcons pick and prediction.
Vikings vs. Falcons
Matchup Analysis
Desmond Ridder has been benched and Taylor Heinicke will step in for an Atlanta offense in desperate need of a spark.
The Falcons are 24th in offensive DVOA, and despite the narrative that their rushing attack would carry the offense, they only create 4.02 adjusted line yards per carry, according to FTN data, which ranks 18th in the league. Their expected points added per rush is -0.14, which further illustrates their offensive line is not executing at the level they were in 2022. It’s difficult to envision things turning around this week as the Vikings' stout rush defense is allowing 3.54 yards per carry to opposing ball carriers, sixth best in the league.
Lacking explosion on offense, Atlanta has yet to score a touchdown from outside the red zone. London, its leading receiver and best weapon in the passing game, will be sidelined for this contest with a groin injury he suffered last week. London has five or more receptions in four straight games and has been the first read in the passing attack on 26.6% of attempts.
London's loss cannot be overstated for this offense since Atlanta now has no choice but to lean on a below-average rushing attack.
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Bet Minnesota vs. Atlanta at FanDuel
For the Vikings, all signs point to rookie fifth-round selection Jaren Hall starting at quarterback.
Hall completed just 54% of his passes for 5.5 yards per attempt in the preseason. He's athletic enough to make plays with his legs, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a fairly significant part of the ground attack. As his collegiate career progressed, he became very confident on the ground, rushing for 224 of his 350 yards in the 2022 season over the last four games of his career.
Regardless of who is toting the rock for the Vikings, you can’t expect many explosive runs. As a team, the Vikings have a 2.4% explosive run rate, hitting only four 15-plus yard gains in 165 attempts. The only path to Minnesota scoring points will be moving the ball down the field methodically, but it won’t be easy as I expect the Falcons run defense to beef up their front seven with an extra defender in the box.
Atlanta will make the Vikings’ rookie quarterback prove he can pick up first downs through the air. The Falcons have yet to cede a single rushing score this year. Hall will have to make plays in the red zone as well if the Vikings are going to cash in on their opportunities.
It’s going to be an uphill battle for Hall — rookie quarterbacks making their first road start have only been victorious in three of their last 18 tries.
Vikings vs. Falcons
Betting Picks & Predictions
The Falcons have seen six of their eight games this season stay under the posted total. The Vikings have played to six straight unders.
The market never corrected for the improvement of the Minnesota defense prior to Kirk Cousins' injury. But now that Cousins is out, this will be the first game of their season with a total below 40.
Although the number is low, there are plenty of variables heading into Sunday that lead me to believe both teams will struggle to get to 20 points. With 37 being a key number when playing totals, I love the play at anything above 37, but I will also gladly play the under down to 37 in what should be a slow-paced, run-heavy grind of a football game.
Be sure to use our live NFL odds page to see if there's a 38 available before making your bet.
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