Vikings vs Bears Odds
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 44 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 44 -110o / -110u | +140 |
In a potentially windy matchup, Vikings vs. Bears odds have Minnesota favored by three points.
The Vikings will be without star receiver Justin Jefferson against a Chicago team that's coming off what could be seen as a breakout win over the Commanders in Week 5.
Let's break down the matchup and make our Vikings vs. Bears pick.
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Vikings vs. Bears
Matchup Analysis
Chicago rightfully received praise for its impressive dismantling of the Commanders, but fading them against the spread has been too profitable for too long to stop now.
In Evan Abrams' NFL Week 6 Betting Primer – which I once again urge you all to check out each week – he outlined just how atrocious the Bears have been against the spread for quite some time.
Not only are they the most profitable team to bet against since the start of last season (15-6-1), but it’s been that way for the last three years (26-12-1), four years (25-20-1 ATS) and five years (47-23-2). Additionally, Justin Fields is the single-worst quarterback over the last 20 seasons, covering a dismal 31% of the time (9-20-1).
You also may not realize this since it's been nearly a full calendar year between Bears victories, but they've never covered in the Matt Eberflus era when coming off a win. They’re 0-3 and have failed to cover by a whopping 7.3 PPG.
Meanwhile, the Bears are only 5-19-1 ATS against the NFC North since the start of 2019. That’s the worst mark of any team against their own division in the past five seasons.
Although the Bears have had success over the long run against the Vikings, they’ve struggled against their rivals in recent years. Minnesota’s beaten them four times in a row by an average of 11.3 points, with victories at Soldier Field coming by a 12.0-point margin.
Bet Minnesota vs. Chicago at FanDuel
Furthermore, although a ferocious defense has been a Bears hallmark over their 104-year history, it’s been terrible the last two seasons. They’ve allowed at least 20 points in 15 straight games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL. The defense is especially bad at home, allowing 25 points or more in eight straight games at Soldier Field. It shouldn’t come as a shock then that they haven’t won a home game since Week 3 of the 2022 campaign.
The Vikings should be able to move the ball at will against a Bears defense that ranks 31st in both total defensive DVOA and pass DVOA. Kirk Cousins has proven to be effective in the past without Jefferson, and while he might struggle in future games, it shouldn’t hinder him this week.
My main concern in this game is the weather. Wind is a quarterback’s arch-enemy, and the forecast heading into Sunday calls for gusts of up to 20mph.
Normally that’d be an advantage for the Bears, who rank 10th in offensive rush DVOA. Unfortunately, they’re in a terrible spot with their top three running backs — Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson and Travis Homer — all injured. They figure to rely heavily on D’Onta Foremen, who’s been a healthy scratch the last four games.
Finally, Minnesota’s luck is due to turn around. They’re the unluckiest team by a significant margin according to Action Network's Luck Rankings (-33.31%). To put into context how insane that number is, Chicago is the fifth-most unfortunate team, but Minnesota is more than twice as unlucky (-33.1% to 15.64%).
I’ve felt good about this pick from the moment the line came out, but I am even higher on it now after noticing that the great Chris Raybon backs it for similar reasons.
Vikings vs. Bears
Betting Picks & Predictions
It's time for one my favorite pastimes – fading Justin Fields and the Bears.
Simply put, it’s been too profitable for too long to stop now. Sure, Chicago looked good undressing Washington in primetime last week, but there are clearly an overwhelming number of trends that point toward a Vikings cover.
I love that we are getting a discount on Minnesota and I will gladly take them at the key number of 3.
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