Our staff of betting analysts have five NFL best bets for Sunday Week 9 late slate. Two analysts are on the Panthers to cover against the Colts, plus additional bets for Cowboys vs. Eagles and Giants vs. Raiders.
NFL Week 9 Best Bets ATS: Expert Sunday Picks Against Spread
We have you covered with against-the-spread (ATS) picks for this afternoon — and the morning! Let's get to the NFL best bets for Week 9 on Sunday.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Dolphins vs. Chiefs
All the focus on this game will be on the elite offenses — and Miami's offense has been better than Kansas City's. But the main difference in this matchup comes on defense.
The Chiefs' defense ranks top five both against the pass and overall for the season, and Miami's offense has sputtered against top defenses. The Dolphins' defense also hasn't been very good and ranks bottom 10 by DVOA and bottom five in the first half. Miami has allowed 34 points to Justin Herbert, 48 to Josh Allen and 31 to Jalen Hurts. The Dolphins haven't been able to get off the field against great quarterbacks, and their one real strength, the pass rush, is negated by a Kansas City offensive line that leads the league in Pass Block Win Rate.
Mahomes is a great quarterback, and we don't often get to bet on him with such a low line. Mahomes is 14-4-1 ATS (78%) when he's a favorite of 3.5-points (or underdog) in his career. He's also 14-3 SU after a loss. When the line is this tight, there's no need to complicate things. Just bet Mahomes.
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Bears vs. Saints
By Simon Hunter
That’s right. F— them points.
This game isn’t coming down to the spread. The Ravens look like the best team in the AFC, grading in the top 10 in defense and offense through 8 weeks. Guess who else is top 10 on both sides of the ball: Seattle.
While you can say, "Look at the QBs who Seattle has played this season," I’d push back and say this is a better Seahawks defense than we've seen all season because it's now fully healthy. Also, adding Leonard Williams to the defensive front is a huge boost. I believe that Seattle be able to take away the run from the Ravens.
This season people keep talking about this pass attack from Lamar Jackson, but the numbers say Baltimore still leads the NFL in rush attempts. That’s how this offense runs. They run to set up the pass.
I think the public is over looking the Seahawks this week and that their moneyline should be closer to +150. Let’s take those free points and bet Seattle to win for an early double-up on Sunday.
Bears vs. Saints
Think of it less as betting on Bagent and more as betting against Derek Carr and Dennis Allen as huge favorites. Allen has never been favored by more than six, and he's an awful 5-13-1 ATS (28%) as a favorite. Carr is 18-34-1 ATS as a favorite (35)% and has lost 13 of his past 21 outright when favored.
The Saints are the better team, but not by as much as this line reflects. Chicago has actually been closer to league average by DVOA and EPA over the past month.
From Week 4 forward, the Bears rate similarly to the Bengals, Dolphins and Saints by EPA. Chicago's offense is 12th in EPA and first in the run game. The defense is also first against the run and 19th overall, not great but no longer terrible. For two teams that lean so heavily on the run, that improvement means Chicago can hang — or even win.
The Bears aren't good! But they're also no longer as terrible as they looked the first few weeks. It's almost always a good idea to consider fading Allen and Carr as favorites.
When Carr is more than a 3-point favorite, he's just 11-11 SU and has lost five of his past six. If you simply bet the moneyline against Carr every time he was favored by more than three in his career, you'd be rocking a 44% ROI. This line is too high for two teams that simply aren't this far apart.
Pick: Bears +8.5 (-110)
Commanders vs. Patriots
The Patriots have one good unit, and that's their their defense. New England's pass defense has been uneven but should get pressure on Howell, and the stout run defense should limit Washington's better attack.
Washington ranks bottom four on both offense and defense in the first half of games, so this is a great chance for the Patriots to get in front and get an easy win against a poorly coached team that looks like it might be packing it in for the season.
I do like the Patriots here, but not enough to go to crazy. I'll play a half unit on Patriots -3, but go no further.
Colts vs. Panthers
Given the current state of the Colts defense, the wrong team is favored here.
Bryce Young is coming off his best game of the season, completing more than 70% of his passes and displaying his ability to extend plays by making throws downfield. The Colts defense is 25th in the league in yards per pass attempt, so I expect Young to continue to build momentum.
The Colts are 24th in defensive red-zone efficiency, as well, allowing an astounding 15 rushing touchdowns thus far this season. Carolina should be able to cash in whenever it has the chance, as most teams have against the Colts in recent weeks. Indianapolis has given up 29 or more points in four of its last five games.
Carolina clearly made some adjustments over their bye week. The Panthers defense was outside the top 25 in yards per play allowed prior to the Week 7 bye, but the unit came out last week and limited the Texans to 4.1 yards per play and 224 yards in their first win of the season. The Saints offense racked up 511 total yards on 7.7 yards per play against the Colts last week.
I'll gladly take the points with the defense playing better right now and back the improving Bryce Young against the vanilla Indianapolis zone defense.
By Simon Hunter
My favorite home 'dog of the week. Don’t be scared off this number now that it’s under a field goal. We’ve seen now for the last five seasons how much two has become a key number.
The Panthers offense finally showed signs of life last week. It looks like the change in play-caller during the bye week has worked. The offense now has a ton of pre-snap motion and focused on getting Young outside the pocket more. Even with last week's red-zone struggles. I saw how much more comfortable Young was in this offense.
Now, Young faces a Colts defense that’s 32nd in the league at yards given up through the air.
On defense, the Panthers have played better at home. Opposing teams seem to get warn down by Brian Burns and the Panthers' tough front seven. The most points that Carolina has given up at home was 21 to the Vikings.
I believe the Panthers keep this to a one-score game and have a high chance of winning late. I'll take the points in case Gardner Minshew's magic shows up.
Giants vs. Raiders
I’m inherently skeptical of anyone who tries to convince you that a team has quit in the NFL. But the Raiders' embarrassing effort against Tyson Bagent and the Bears in Week 7 — a Chicago player commented they seemed jetlagged — should have produced some type of response on Monday Night Football in Week 8. The loss to the Lions was the exact opposite of a response.
The Raiders might be playing Jimmy Garappolo, but he’s not close to right. He leads the league in interceptions and he finished the loss in Detroit 10-for-21 for 126 yards in Detroit. A week after Lamar Jackson completely torched the Lions secondary, that same secondary had Garoppolo under 100 yards passing as the game was deep in the fourth quarter. Davante Adams was sounding the body language police alarms on the sidelines.
That was one of the lopsided games of the entire season despite just a 12-point delta between the two teams.
The Giants will get Daniel Jones back in the lineup and Wink Martindale is sure to bring a lot of pressure and sack and pressure new starter Aidan O'Connell early and often on Sunday. O'Connell had major problems against the Chargers avoiding sacks and fumbles. I don’t know how you can make the Raiders a better team on a neutral than the Giants right now given the Raiders' recent performances. They fired coach and offensive coordinator too, which means a new playcaller for Las Vegas.
Will firing Josh McDaniels on Tuesday help the Raiders change course? It can’t hurt, but the defense spent 40 minutes on the field Monday and it’s still a short turnaround.
Giants vs. Raiders
In finance, there is a term called "dead cat bounce." It refers to a small recovery in the price of a declining stock. Usually, only for a brief moment.
I'm applying that logic to the Raiders this week. Their stock is declining and will likely continue to decline, but we might get the best effort out of them this particular week.
Las Vegas fired Josh McDaniels and everyone in the organization seems happy about it. It certainly can't hurt its offense or late-game play calling and clock management.
This bet is as much of a bet on the Raiders as it is a bet against the Giants. New York is 2-6 on the season and 1-3 on the road, having scored 97 total points this season. That's not only last in the NFL, but it's last by 23 points.
The Raiders have the better skill-position players on offense and the better offensive line. I'm taking them here.
Pick: Raiders -1 (-115)
Cowboys vs. Eagles
First place in the NFC East is essentially on the line (in the loss column) this Sunday. The Eagles defense has been a difficult unit to predict on a week-to-week basis. Philadelphia has now been carved open by Sam Howell on two separate occasions, but it also held Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins to just 10 offensive points two weeks ago.
Given the state of the secondary, I still have major questions about the group as a whole. Cornerback James Bradberry has looked a step slower in coverage this year. Darius Slay’s coverage numbers have taken a real step back this year too.
The secondary has dealt with a handful of injuries, but unless the defensive line can rattle the opposing quarterback, they’re going to get picked apart by most quality quarterbacks. Pro Football Focus grades the Eagles coverage unit as 23rd in the league and there are real holes over the middle. The Commanders had a clear plan to go after Nakobe Dean in coverage over the middle last week.
Prescott has traditionally matched up well with the Eagles secondary in the last few seasons, and that’s an important key to watch for the next matchup in December and a potential playoff rematch this January. There’s not a ton to separate these two teams overall, which makes the Jalen Hurts’ left leg injury something to monitor.
Hurts had one of his best games as a passer in the win against the Commanders, but he’ll face a considerably better secondary and ferocious pass rush in this contest. Dallas is top five in all pass rush metrics and the coverage unit has mostly held up since losing Trevon Diggs.
Hurts had 11 carries for 21 yards in the win against Miami and followed it with four carries for six against Washington. If he’s not going to run the ball because of the knee issue, the Eagles' rush offense advantage against this Dallas front becomes harder to exploit.
