NFL Best Bets | Week 15
Our staff has identified its NFL best bets for Week 15. We're on five spreads and two unders for Sunday's slate. Click on an NFL pick below to navigate this post.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Buccaneers vs. Packers
After a week off from backing the Packers in this column, I’m back for more Jordan Love.
It’s true that Love showed inconsistency and accuracy issues in the loss to the Giants. He had a fumble and a poor interception to help keep the Giants in this game. But the NFL season is full of bad situational spots and good ones, and Green Bay was in a very poor one on Monday. Not only were the Giants coming off their bye week, but Green Bay was fresh off its biggest win of the season — that’s a difficult road primetime spot for a young roster.
As a result of that poor showing, we now get to buy the improving Packers at a discount.
Tampa Bay won the battle for first place in the NFC South invitational last week, but it lost the box score and needed a crucial Desmond Ridder turnover and final-minute drive to win that game in Atlanta.
The Buccaneers started the season 3-1 on the back of really good third-down variance and turnover luck. Since then, the Bucs are 3-6 with a win against Will Levis, Carolina at home by three and Atlanta by four. Atlanta finished the game with 6.3 yards per play and 143 more total yards than Tampa Bay.
The clear weakness of Green Bay's defense is against the run. The Buccaneers have a large sample of not being able to move the ball on the ground — they are 30th in rush success rate and 24th in EPA per rush. By box score, Tampa Bay should be downgraded more than Green Bay.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Chiefs vs. Patriots
By Simon Hunter
I know, I’m asking you to back Bailey Zappe in December against Mahomes. But look at it as you’re getting two free points just because it is Zappe vs. Mahomes in December.
This number is too high. I could kind of of understand the Chiefs being more than seven-point favorites on the road if this was last season. Right now, though, they don’t deserve this respect. Every point that the Chiefs score looks like a struggle. Nothing comes to the Chiefs offense easily.
Now, Kansas City faces a Bill Belichick-coached defense on 10 days' rest… I mean, come on. This couldn't be a worse spot for a struggling offense.
We don’t need the offense to put up 40 points to cover this. We just need Zappe to keep this within a touchdown. Mac Jones turned the ball over and struggled in the red zone. We've seen Zappe struggle with turnovers, but he’s much better in the red zone. I see this being a low-scoring game, and that could be the difference.
New England's season might be over, but this team shows no quit. With both teams relying on defense, I'd take this down to +7.
Pick: Patriots +8.5 (-110)
Giants vs. Saints
Books are still treating the Saints like a quality team, and that just doesn't pass the smell test. New Orleans has not lived up to expectations even with the softest schedule in the league, and the Saints have fallen apart with all the injuries on both sides of the ball.
They rank 30th in DVOA over the last five weeks, still bottom 10 on offense like the rest of the season but a shocking 30th on defense, where they've been outstanding for so many years under Dennis Allen. The Giants actually rank around league average during that stretch both defensively and overall.
Wink Martindale's aggressive defense should give Derek Carr problems, and Tommy DeVito may be able to move the ball with both his arm and his legs. The Saints are just 2-8-1 ATS as favorites this season and have lost six of those games. Carr is 19-37-1 ATS (34%) as a favorite for his career, and Allen is 6-16-1 ATS (27%) when favored.
If the books are going to keep making Dennis Allen a big favorite, we're going to keep betting against him. As at least a field goal favorite, Allen has failed to cover seven of eight times and lost three times outright. I took Panthers +6.5 against the Saints last week and would do it again despite the 28-6 loss, considering the Saints barely hit 200 yards of offense.
New Orleans just isn't right. I have to sprinkle the moneyline too. We might be nearing a Saints obituary.
Giants vs. Saints
As an Italian American, I am enjoying Tommy DeVito's Linsanity-esque run as much as the next paisan.
How are the Saints laying six against any team right now? This is quite remarkable when you look at the box score from the Carolina game. It's one of the most misleading final scores of the entire season as Carolina lost by 22 despite winning the box score stats.
You can say that Carolina is a disaster situationally and in high leverage. But that does not excuse New Orleans from putting up that train-wreck box score this late in the season. Carolina averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Brian Daboll didn’t just forget how to coach overnight and he did have the bye week to figure out what works with DeVito.
Daboll used DeVito’s legs heavily. The Giants quarterback didn’t take a single sack while Derek Carr was 18-of-26 for 119 yards. The Saints' run defense has fallen off a cliff in the last month and their aging defensive core is showing their age.
You’re buying at the peak of DeVito, but there’s just no way the Saints should be laying six. Any Giants bet should probably be accompanied by a moneyline bet given the high-variance nature of DeVito.
The Giants have a better defense, better coach and they’re better situationally.
Falcons vs. Falcons
By Simon Hunter
Can I interest you in backing the 1-12 panthers at home after losing by 22 points last week? You gotta do it — bet ugly and you’ll win over the long haul, especially if that ugly team is a home divisional 'dog getting less then 20% of the betting tickets and money. The sportsbooks love to be in these spots cause they know they'll make money off it over the long haul.
Everyone loves Atlanta this week, but this is a team that’s bad outdoors on the road. On the flip side, the Panthers only play well at home. Mix in that we may get bad weather, and I really love the Panthers defense at home.
On the Panthers offense, Bryce Young has been terrible this season. Watching the tape from the past two weeks, though, I do see he looks more comfortable in the offense since Frank Reich was fired. Last week, he simply missed easy throws that normally he doesn’t miss.
Don’t overreact to last week's loss. Rookie QBs always struggle with consistency. We’ll see more from the run game and play-action passing this week.
I can see this being a back-and-fourth game that comes down to late field goal. I always want to take the points in that position, especially when it’s two bad teams. Be sure to shop around for the best number at our NFL odds page. This spread could rise as we get closer to kickoff.
Jets vs. Dolphins
We already know the Jets won't score much — see above, or just any Jets game this season — but New York's defense is the best, healthiest unit on the field and should hold its own. Miami's offense has struggled against top competition, and it has particularly struggled when the offensive line has had issues. When all the pieces of the Dolphins' offense are out there in sync, it's a beautiful whirring Mike McDaniel machine. But when the timing is thrown off and the machine is off-kilter, it can go very sideways.
We saw last Monday night when the Dolphins' offense had only three points at home going into the fourth quarter against Tennessee. We also saw a deceivingly high total between these teams on Black Friday. The game finished at 47, but featured two pick-6s and two garbage-time TDs in the past five minutes, leaving just 20 points otherwise.
The gusty wind should make scoring difficult. Over the past three years, games with at least a 10 mph wind have gone under 64% of the time. Jets games average 35.3 PPG this season, with nine of the 13 at 38 points or below, and Zach Wilson games with a total 41 or lower are 9-2 to the under (82%).
I won't be intimidated by Miami's offense, not with so many injuries on the offensive line. I'm fading the Dolphins hard right now, and I considered both team total unders in this one so the game under only makes sense.
Pick: Under 37 (-110)
Bears vs. Browns
The Browns defense played from ahead almost the entire game against the Jaguars, and that's with Jacksonville scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns despite just four yards per play. It’s true the Browns defense has regressed from historically good territory.
In fact, the Browns defense is down to fifth in EPA per play since Week 9. Despite this, the biggest takeaway last week for the Cleveland defense long term and for the future is that Myles Garrett looked like the Defensive Player of the Year again.
Garrett didn’t record a sack, but he had seven pressures and three QB hits, which is the most and second-most he’s had in those two categories all season. The market priced Cleveland’s defense in historically good territory earlier in the year; there’s been a downgrading since.
The question and biggest X-factor in this matchup is what to make of Joe Flacco. You could make a solid argument that Flacco is the best quarterback on the Cleveland roster to run Kevin Stefanski's offense. Flacco's excellent at using play action and throwing down the field for explosives on longer developing plays.
Still, the vastly improved Browns offense is 17th in success rate and 23rd in EPA per play in the last two weeks with Flacco. That was in games against the Rams and Jaguars, two defenses that aren't above average by any metric. Compare that to the Bears defense, which has made steady and real underlying improvements.
This total seems a touch high to me. It’s hard to run on Chicago and the Browns defense has a healthier Garrett. While Cleveland left the backdoor open a lot against Trevor Lawrence, I don’t expect the same door to be open against Justin Fields.
Commanders vs. Rams
I'm all in on the Rams right now. They're playing like a top-10 team over the past five weeks, with the most unstoppable offense in the league outside of San Francisco. Raheem Morris' defense has been much improved too, especially against the run, and that's important against the Commanders.
Mostly this is about the terrible Commanders' defense, which is the worst in the league and completely lacking in pass rush since trading away Chase Young and Montez Sweat.
Teams that have allowed 28+ in three straight like the Commanders (four actually, and nine times this year) are 22-45-2 ATS (33%), and Sean McVay is 61% ATS after a loss. The Rams are great in the first half, where Washington is bad, so expect LA to get a lead early, play on the front foot, and possibly run up a big point total in an easy win.
This is my favorite side of the week by a wide margin. I'm buying in on this offense, and I'm playing the Rams in this game in any number of ways. I looked at Rams first half and Rams team over, and I'll likely consider alternate lines. I'm also already in on the Rams for next Thursday night's game against the Saints. In a tough slate, this is my favorite pick and one I'm playing for multiple units.
